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Where In The World Is Zhou Xiaochuan? Stratfor Provides Update As 1 Month Chinese Repo Surges By 50%
For those seeking an update on today rumor du jour, here is Stratfor with some additional insights, if nothing definitive yet. But before we get into that, we have received the following update from our Chinese media readers across the Pacific: "Here is the link of the Ming Pao report. http://inews.mingpao.com/htm/INews/20100830/gb11502c.htm It says that "China may punish Zhou because China lost $430 billion foreign exchange on its Fannie and Freddie bond investment". It doesn't say anything about U.S. Treasury Bonds. The truth is that many Chinese thought China lost all its investment in Fannie and Freddie after they were delisted from NYSE. It is also wrong because China doesn't invest with their stocks." All in all, seems like lots of confusion pretty much everywhere, although the market is not taking any chances, with China's 1 Month Repo exploding by nearly 50%.
Summary
STRATFOR is continuing to examine unconfirmed rumors that Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People's Bank of China, fled China to the United States. The origin of the report has been hard to track, especially due to censorship of websites discussing the rumors, so the unconfirmed rumors remain just that -- unconfirmed. However, if true, these rumors could have significant implications for China and for Sino-U.S. relations.
Analysis
STRATFOR is continuing to investigate unconfirmed rumors circulating in Chinese media to the effect that Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People's Bank of China, has fled China to the United States. At present there is still no confirmation.
The provenance of the rumor has proved hard to track. A report attributed to Hong Kong's Ming Pao newspaper on Aug. 28 said that Zhou might be punished for a large loss on U.S Treasury bonds worth $430 billion, and that the Chinese government might also punish others in the People's Bank of China. The report allegedly originated on an unknown but "major" Chinese discussion forum, and that forum suggested that Zhou had left the country. Ming Pao denied it had published the report Aug. 30, saying others had used Ming Pao's name without permission to distribute the rumor. STRATFOR has not yet been able to track down the original report, most likely because the Chinese government appears to be actively censoring websites discussing the rumors, deleting some web pages and blocking search engine results that involve Zhou's name and words relating to a possible defection. Rumors have continued to circulate on Chinese blogs and web forums, in particular suggesting that Zhou may have defected to the United States. The reports are still posted on the blog of a professor, Liu Bingfu, whose career experience suggests he is a notable, if minor, academic.
Zhou cannot be confirmed to have appeared in public since the rumors began. The official website of the People's Bank of China has reported on Zhou's activities Aug. 30 -- such as attending meetings with officials from Japan and Italy -- in what appears to be unusual coverage, including photos, and may be an attempt to counteract the rumors. The pictures were taken from a distance but do appear to show Zhou, though it cannot be confirmed whether the photos were in fact taken on Aug. 30. Zhou's last televised appearance was on Aug. 26 on CCTV, attending a conference with Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, and images of the TV appearance also seem to show Zhou. Zhou had attended official events Aug. 10, in which he called for China to continue developing its western regions, and Aug. 3, when he met with his South Korean and Japanese counterparts.
Therefore what STRATFOR has at the moment remains unconfirmed rumors. If the reports are false, it would seem likely that Zhou will make a public appearance soon to dispel them. Otherwise speculation will continue. There are constantly rumors that high-level Chinese officials are in danger of a downfall, especially dealing with economic policymakers amid the economic challenges in recent years -- this year alone, such rumors have touched Wen and top banking regulator Liu Mingkang. Similarly, China has undertaken an extensive drive over the past year targeting corrupt officials, and a variant of the rumors about Zhou suggests he has disappeared from the public spotlight because he is under investigation for corruption.
What makes the rumors about Zhou more interesting, beyond his position as governor of the central bank, is the specific claim that he has defected to the United States. If true, this would have serious ramifications for domestic and foreign perceptions of China's political and financial stability, as well as for U.S.-Chinese relations. Though the rumors may prove false, their emergence alone likely suggests an attempt to detract from Zhou's reputation. This could be related to his economic policies -- while the rumor of a loss of $430 billion related to U.S. Treasury bills is difficult to comprehend without more context, China has recently adjusted its foreign exchange reserve management, or Zhou may have been targeted as part of the factional struggles ahead of leadership transition in 2012. However, it is relatively rare in China for political leaders to be punished for failed policies, and more likely the consequence of scandals, misconduct or political purges.
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Finally, a Black Swan with consequence?
nah, he's just having lunch exactly where you would expect him to:
http://www.nickandtonis.com/
Great Ad. What did they pay you to post it here?
Great website. No directions or any idea where the restaurant is located.
about time the cracks start to appear.
- could this be the problem??
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xxjVi8DYLuA&feature=channel
Confusion bitches!
confucius bitches† get it, china and all.
"He who will not economize will have to agonize."
Confucius bitchez.
This is just anchorman humor but "confusion bitches" just made me laugh my ass off.
+1000
The man who taught me nearly everything I know about business used to use a phrase once in a while that I was reminded of when I read that comment: "Where there's confusion there's opportunity."
Usually it was used to explain why our competition was running things so blatantly fucked up. Every once in a while it explained why we were.
Financials selling off...
Ping ching ta ting tow repo BITCHES!
Let's stop and think about this. What if this is deliberate warfare? China sacrifices a pawn to expose (indirectly) that China is massively short USTs and that the recent rally was just a covering rally. What happens to USTs in the aftermath? What if China is really short USTs?
I wouldn't count on this being as obvious as some people seem to believe.
thats an interesting thought. short treasuries.....they are already withholding REE's, loading up on commodities, telling their people to by PM's.....what would we do if they had all the pieces in place to suddenly and fully pull the rug on the treasuries? nuke them? we dont have enough troops for combat...if the oil nations, russia, and china collaberated against us what would we do?
We could place a 150% tariff on everything made in China. Tell the American people we are going to bringing manufacturing home. Jobs building the new plants & retooling ect, a boom for all Americans.
i am looking beyond a tariff imposition. they (China) will have obviously thought well through that possibility in the hypothetical chess game when it finally comes down.......us manufacture? and what will we do in the interim period to build the necessary infrastrucure with a worthless dollar while heavily addicted to foreign oil?.not so fast...our nat gas would help but we are nowhere near ready for any type serious of oil/nat gas swap.
Sure, a boom for all americans to bring back all our manufacturing....and that would take how long to start? 30 years minimum? Took 30 years to transfer it all overseas after all.
Had a conversation with someone who worked in the manufacturing space a few months back. I had been of the opinion that the US would be looking at a 10-20 year time frame to rebuild industries moved overseas in the event of a (further) significant drop in the USD. Sort of taking the "it didn't happen overnight and it won't turn around overnight" approach. He surprised me by saying that it would be a much faster process, with a lot of it back in 2-3 years. Any thoughts/opinions from those who are actually in the manufacturing area would be interesting.
I guess one could consider that a possible silver lining to Greyzone's unsettling, but very interesting, comments.
i'd like to know how he determined that time frame and if he truly considered the ramifications of a defacto bankrupt nation trying to pull off the infrastructure rebuild.....i think it would take a lot longer than that....look around now and how slow things move...shit it takes months upon months to repair existing roads let alone building an entirely new infrastructure from the ground up..one that ends an addiction to oil...i personally dont buy 2-3 years..i am in to the 10-20 camp.
His thinking centered on two beliefs. 1) Scarcity and prices of imports would rapidly create the opportunity to make large profits on some manufactured goods. Those who had hard wealth or access to materials would build factories, etc. to take advantage of the outsized profits to be made, at least in the shorter term. Depending on the level of trade barriers, exports could be highly profitable. 2) Gov't reprioritization - thought was that there still would be some form of central and state gov't around and that they would make reestablishment of domestic manufacturing capacity a priority. Sort of akin to what happened during WWII. It's amazing what can be accomplished in a relatively short amount of time when regulations get kicked to the curb, and complete, unrelenting focus is on getting it done fast, versus making sure that every disadvantaged and connected group gets it's piece of the pie. He felt that in the aftermath of a currency crisis, as a nation we would have a relatively quick mind-shift as to what is truly important, especially in a "just-in-time" environment where we won't have 6 months to dither while burning off existing inventory.
As you mentioned, energy would be a/the major problem, and would likely be rationed until nuclear and other truly viable ( i.e. cost-effective sources vs political boondoggles) could come online. Even then, don't think energy prolifigacy would ever return in a manner similar to today.
Re natural resources - his take is that our national parks are full of them. As an avid camper, not a comforting thought, but when things get dicey, what's nice to have versus a must have can get redefined in pretty short order.
I don't know if he is right, but he's not an idiot either. However, from my viewpoint, his scenario is largely dependent on US citizens pulling together in the face of adversity - again, ala WWII. If that doesn't materialize, then a lot of things start going out the window.
Sure, a boom for all americans to bring back all our manufacturing....and that would take how long to start? 30 years minimum? Took 30 years to transfer it all overseas after all.
Sure, a boom for all americans to bring back all our manufacturing....and that would take how long to start? 30 years minimum? Took 30 years to transfer it all overseas after all.
EDIT: sheep 1
Sure, a boom for all americans to bring back all our manufacturing....and that would take how long to start? 30 years minimum? Took 30 years to transfer it all overseas after all.
If true, this has black swan event written all over it
Things are not as they seem. There's lots going on behind the scenes concerning exchange rates, dollar debt, contradictory central bank policies and, yes, SDR.
The longer the crisis drags, the more the problems percolate to the surface. Even the mighty mountain backdrop of Jackson Hole couldn't inspire confidence.
Just as easily as they can say Zhou "lost us money", they can mean "you owe us".
A while back, the US Congress was debating whether to label China a currency manipulator and merchantilist trader. On the very eve of meaningful actions, China reports that for the first time in years they had a trade deficit with the US. They could have made the numbers up on the spot, nobody has any idea what their balance of trade really is.
All the same, nothing happened in Congress that day. Everyone avoided a difficult action motivated as much by politics as anything else. Sigh of relief.
Fast forward to today. Rumors from China that something big is amiss. This, on the Monday after BB says "QE2 to infinity". Well now, we wonder what the Chinese thought of all that talk. Maybe come Monday morning we're finding out. If the Chairman of the PBoC "takes one for the team" even symbolically then it might signal a conflict between them and the FED and their fake-it-til-we-make-it policies.
It's Kabuki theater. You pay less attention to the players and more attention to the movements. After a bit, it's not as retarded as it seems.
Holy shit, I was actually right. I need to screen shot my post in the original thread, as to this does not happen to me often
430 billion is nothing these days. Ben wipes his arse with that much after taking a dump.
oh... nvm that stuff is actually coming out of his ass, he doesn't wipe, it seems.
That would almost pay off the entire Canadian national debt.
I beg to disagree. 430 Billion is a bastard to cover. If true, somethings going to get a smack down.
Bubble Ben would love to have it as QE Lite
black, black swan.
That would be a green swan...
Yellow swan??????
Brown swan?
Somebody has been unloading Goldman shares in the pits all afternoon...
TOS traders have been riding it down.
Too much drama for me! Robo, what do you think?
oh i love that drama
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fWZSFdbDoJk
big banks and retail... anyone see a bid today?
massage bitchez!
what was she massaging, i couldn't tell?
hey, why doesn't anybody answer. is this what massages consist of. ? really, why no answers, do they rub out the men? is that legal?
if this is true expect Gold to at least triple...
Well, for a portion of a minute, anyway...
If he has not left yet, he should. They will probably kill him just to make sure anyway.
Gee, and I worry about my $2,600 house payment. 400+billion loss..
What if the Fed was on the other side of the trade...? And what if the Fed (using the power of the Fed) just screwed the Bank of China to the tune of 400+ billion...
LOL... that's a nervous laugh btw..!
J.B. Books.
Not a chance. Central banks don't trade. They hold to maturity for the interest.
I hear you....I worry about my $2200/month health insurance payment...
21st Century Franz Ferdinand?
Fannie?
Freddy?
Did I miss something? My goldfish are called Fannie and Freddy! WHAT THE HELL DID THEY DO WRONG!!!
NOBODY
AND I MEAN NOBODY!!!
TOUCHES
MY GOLDFISH!!
YOU HEAR!!
See what happens when chasing the dragon leads to an inability to roll over...
It makes more sense that they lost on Fannie and Freddie. Given that UST's are rallying big time, it's hard to see how they could have lost unless they tried to day trade.
In which case I don't see how this is news for US markets. For China, perhaps this is a big news item.
Translation: "You screwed us on that Fannie debt that built your houses. You owe us"
China will have elections and become a democlacy.
Then we visit Blitish embassy in Smolensk!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BuO274cd7Y0&feature=related
Starts at 1:30 into the video
I wouldn't be surprised if the author(s) of the article in HK vanish. This smells of disinformation/distraction...which means something somewhere else is going on. If it is true the yarn ball is about to come unwrapped.
A Google machine translation of Mingpao's denial:
Mainland site risk , " Ming Pao Daily News " the name of false news ( 15:02 )
Mainland site this morning, one circulating fraudulent use of Hong Kong's " Ming Pao Daily News , " the name of the false message that " as China in the U.S. two- room ? ? loss of 430 billion U.S. dollars debt reserves, according to rumors that the primary responsibility for the Chinese people to prepare Chu Li , the People's Bank governor Zhou Ogawa , " also known as " spokesman for the U.S. Congress , Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said the threat : If the Chinese handling of Zhou Xiaochuan , China's 5,000 high-ranking officials will be published in the Swiss bank deposits , which China did not answer " , the message triggered speculation that the mainland netizens Week Ogawa flee .
" Ming Pao Daily News " editorial board would like to clarify , " Ming Pao " has never made the reported cases of fraudulent use of this " Ming Pao " name to the cases of false news , " Ming Pao " strongly condemned , and will investigate complaints and to the perpetrators responsible .
Since the incident involving the unauthorized publication of false financial information on behalf of the newspaper , " Ming Pao Daily News " editorial on the 30th at the Hong Kong Police and the State CouncilHong Kong and MacaoOffice to reflect the situation ?, express concern and seek to help follow up the case .
" Ming Pao Daily News " editorial board
August 30, 2010
Well, if that's what passes for literacy in Chinese newspapers, we have nothing to fear. Makes our American friends who use loose when they really mean lose look like brainiacs.
What part of "Google translation" didn't register?
What part of my name "Teaser" didn't register?
Okay, you are excused.
Which part of "waste of time" do you need explained?
No wonder they kicked Google out of China.
Ming Pao Chicken? I love that shit...
+1
sounds like chop suieee to me
Hmmm, wonder if the PBC was running some scenarios looking at what magnitude of hits their bond portfolio would take at varying levels of US interest rates and USD values at some future point, and someone took one of the potential loss numbers and ran with it out of context - either out of ignorance, or with malice aforethought.
If he has fled and seeks asylum in the U.S., this could get VERY interesting. IF China would declare him a criminal who took flight and demands extradition AND the U.S. refuses, might we see The Nuclear Treasury Option.
Dow down 140 today. Wonder if their rumor mill is better than ours. If this is true, then which emperor has no clothes?
Thanks for planting that mental image of Obama & Bernanke naked. So much for Supper tonight.
I was speaking in a more metaphorical sense...
Maybe the three of them are currently huddled in Jackson Hole, having a manly sweat together...
as snug as three spoons in the cupboard
An' all-long I was worried 'bout Larry the Hut ne'ked.
Anybody related to the Zero Hedge website constantly lives in great danger
ZHou missing?!.....Now there's a clue for you
LMAO
The plot thickens!
Maybe Tyler secretly works for ... the PBoC!
Ah yes, all is becoming clear. Clever, verrrrry clever.
Ermm, now you mention it.....YES, of course!
Dump those fooking US treasuries already Tyler, stop supporting US debt, you and a shitload of Chinese will thank me later.
The Red Pill is the only option!
and off toppic: Obama seems to have noticed that too many Americans are out of job.....after which he swiftly went back into hibernation mode..Zzzzzz
LMAO
So was this money lost on Fannie and Freddie, or UST's? The former seems to make more sense, but that probably means it is wrong.
Has to be Fran/Fred.
In other news, Jerome Kerviel formally of Societe Generale Bitterly complaining that his mere $7Bil could have been much, much worse...if it wasn't for his expertise in the matter.....
That excuse only works until the patient dies
Wow from rogue traders to rogue central bankers (don't Greenspan and Bernanke hold the #11 and #2 spots there?)!
Future consultancy firm:
Greenspan, Brenanke, Geitner and Zhou.
Contest: write their vision and mission statements.
They're talking about making this an Olympic sport in time for the next ... K-winter Games.
ba-dum-ching!
Nah - they will just join the esteemed firm of:
Dewey Cheatem and Howe.
your funny.
Heh. "The Three Stooges" but you have to be over 50 to have seen them, even on T V
I resemble that remark! Nyuk, nyuk, nyuk.
do we cheat them and how, uh mitchy.
Funny you ask, for I come up with a blank.
"The official website of the People's Bank of China has reported on Zhou's activities Aug. 30 -- such as attending meetings with officials from Japan and Italy -- in what appears to be unusual coverage, including photos, and may be an attempt to counteract the rumors."
This should be easily confirmed by checking Japanese or Italian media covering the same news.
I would like to thank China for the housing bubble. We really do appreciate the drywall; and the carpet, the paint, the kids' toys. Freddie and Fanny, you just thought it was a threesome. I just wish there was some way to repay you.
Four trips by Geithner are now explained.
Should be an interesting open on the Asian Markets tonight.
Simple explanation: Stratfor needs to boost its subscription rolls.
All bullshit.
Is ZH becoming the financial world's "Drudge Report" ??
And 1 Month Chinese Repo rates surge in agreement...
This better not make it on Drudge Report, I don't want ZH to be slow all afternoon
But Shanghai stock market surged 1.6%, so maybe a little early to over hyperventilate.
Um, correct me if I'm wrong, party people, but weren't Fuckie & Suckie bondholders made whole or at least guaranteed par by our government?
This is getting stupid. The source was a fake MingPao site, and the newspaper has already publicly denied making this report.
Yup, but I bet you some big hedge funds were loving the conspiracy theories and scooped up a ton of shares at the close!!!
suddenly all traces disappear. And we believe them when they correct the news because they only publish the truth.
Their reputation as nonparty journalists is at stake right?
Cleanup crews... so CIA...
I have a screenshot of wikipedia referencing the rumour of his defection. It is deleted from wiki now and the changes are not listed in the recent changes. I don't know how to add it to a post though????
UHHH, I emailed it to everybody I know so hopefully I won't be committing suicide over it!
Use something like http://tinypic.com and post the link.
Thanks!
http://tinypic.com/r/5dsa2u/4
Just go to the article's history (organized by date and time) and find the specific edit. Then post back a link.
Here, I'll do it for you:
http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Zhou_Xiaochuan&oldid=381896149
You up for canoing this afternoon?
Ha-Ha. I looked up that IP as well.... Denver. I'm in Ohio and the little Miami would be too slow and too hot for cabrewing today :-P
white water, bitchez.
Y O U A R E n o t in O hi O, i bet. maybe you are. who are you? R U E C? no delete key.
UHHH? You are sometimes funny?just not this time, i bet. maybe you are. R U F U? no delete key :-)
O K i will take that as a y e s .
OK, I'll take that as a YES as well! If ya tell me what E C means, I'll let ya know, J A.
J A.
what's that stand 4?
:-P cheeky/playful blowing a raspberry, what ever that means.
If you had any good friends they really would install a breathalyzer on your keyboard, i bet. or maybe not.
NO good friends here.
what's up with the dissing on/f vice?
delete out. are you edward?
.
.
.
.
.
No, neither your internet or imaginary friends could physically install it. R U Janeane?
no of course not, i am kathy
Her fathers name is "Solar Power"
Her mothers name is "Opal Tiger "
Kathy loves...pills, booze, mushrooms, & the dead ...
And ZH :-p
your putting words into my mouth.
not sure about pills or mushrooms or the dead. never really liked the dead. lame kind of music.
L O V E ZH.
We're used to seeing fake reports move markets. It's an everyday thing if you watch the news.
- The Amazing Story of the Hui Xing Gold Mine Ponzi Scheme in Inner Mongolia
http://israelfinancialexpert.blogspot.com/2010/08/chinas-shark-loan-ponzi-finance-amazing.html
Interesting site. Even more interesting was the advert at the bottom: Church financing available? Hmmm...there's always more than meets the eye.
China puts "super online banking system" into service
GOV.cn Monday, August 30, 2010
The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, put its online payment interbank clearing system, or "super online banking system," into service Monday.
The system supports real-time interbank transfers and interbank balance inquiries.
It links online banking systems of different commercial banks and enables customers to access their accounts on one website.
Before the new system, customers had to log on to different banks' sites to manage their accounts, and interbank transfers usually took one or two days.
The charges for the new system have not been finalized.
http://english.gov.cn/2010-08/30/content_1691664.htm
Probably makes it easier to track what everybody's doing.
This is really a story about a Super Bank Czar and that has Zhou's fingerprints all over it.
I think that people within the party who agree with you are responsible for the release of the Zhou story.
ALL YOUR ROUTING NUMBER ARE BELONG TO US.
LOL, You and Uncle Sam can fight over it!
That's some funny shite!
Let's hope they are smarter than the IMF.
Yo south africa. Can you help a cracker out? We just need to dump these crappy old computers here.
20 minutes of scavenging later.
Hello,
I'm a political prisoner in south africa. Could I trust you to handle a large online money transfer.
Department of Justice definition.....
"Cracker: A person who accesses a computer system without consent with the intent to steal, destroy information, disrupt the system, plant a virus, alter the system and/or its processes from the configuration managed by the system manager, or otherwise alter information in or processes of the system."
http://www.scribd.com/doc/36624151/Investigating-Terrorism-and-Criminal-Extremism-Terms-and-Concepts
Convenient that we have some assets in the Yellow Sea to train with S.K.
Buy our Bonds bitches.... Or the little guy gets it..
http://i.imgur.com/bktYf.pngIs
He's dead, Jim.
Check this one out, funny as hell :)
http://www.garagetv.be/video-galerij/lambiorix/wally_in_space_avi.aspx
-
Star Trek meets Goldmember??? Great if you speak Dutch...
Doesn't everybody?
Once we take over the world, you'll be able to learn it in one of the reconditioning camps we'll set up for you.
On more important matters, Greece plays Turkey on Tuesday in the 2010 FIBA World Championship tournament. Both teams are undefeated. Use link below to watch game for free:
http://www.atdhe.net/Should be a great game.
IF I were a betting man, I'd bet the chinese central bank isn't pulling a spread trade or anything like that. They buy foreign paper and sit on it like an egg. How would he have lost the money? Sounds all bunk to me. But it sure would be something if it had any truth at all to it.
Maybe it was just a trillion $ worth of conforming Fan/Fred MBS that have turned toxic. Banks are dumping properties at $50 a square foot lower than the going market rate
Ah... he's probably just still hangin' at Jackson Hole. Or maybe he took a side trip to Vegas on the way home. Put 400 billion in bonds on red.
SPOTTED IN VIRGINIA:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oHg5SJYRHA0
He can sing?
Rick Roll time!
Who is this Rick Rorr you speak of?
RickRoll'd the best kind. never going to make you cry never going to say good bye. never going to let you down or never say a lie and hurt you. you go girl.
US open tennis bitchez.
my my would love to be in NYC. no delete button.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oHg5SJYRHA0
It's a damn shame they couldn't have a share of Sallie Mae too, I'd be happy to default on some Chinese debt.
Found nothing in the most popular Japanese papers on Zhou. Most current was late August about the central bank supporting development aid in Xinjiang (western China)
That is because the Japanese financial press are out in front of the BOJ frantically masturbating en masse in hopes the display will prompt more monetary easing.
There is little doubt about that. Nikkei front runs the government and BOJ without shame. You should read some of their analysis of yesterday's BOJ meeting.
http://e.nikkei.com/e/ac/tnks/Nni20100830D30EE904.htm
BTW...I amend the earlier statement to change late August to early August and to include his support for a global currency during the same period.
That visual ... oh my god. Hundreds of little ... all doing ... oh my god.
You are a right bastard.
OMG.... you owe me a laptop...shit warn a bother so I can swallow my coffee first, damn. Coffee out the nose hurts!!!!
Lose half a trillion. Swim with fishes. China not known for forgiveness.
Zhou last seen with Billary. Selling Avon and UST. China preparing to issue SW for box of papers. We know how this will turn out.
...and they are fresh out of Avon!