Where In The World Is Zhou Xiaochuan? Stratfor Provides Update As 1 Month Chinese Repo Surges By 50%

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Mon, 08/30/2010 - 15:54 | 553541 MichiganMilitiaMan
MichiganMilitiaMan's picture

Finally, a Black Swan with consequence?

Mon, 08/30/2010 - 16:14 | 553599 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

nah, he's just having lunch exactly where you would expect him to:

http://www.nickandtonis.com/

 

 

Mon, 08/30/2010 - 16:56 | 553687 Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

Great Ad. What did they pay you to post it here?

Mon, 08/30/2010 - 18:03 | 553820 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

Great website. No directions or any idea where the restaurant is located.

Mon, 08/30/2010 - 16:24 | 553622 walküre
walküre's picture

about time the cracks start to appear.

Mon, 08/30/2010 - 18:42 | 553863 Rusty Shorts
Mon, 08/30/2010 - 15:56 | 553546 dryam
dryam's picture

Confusion bitches!

Mon, 08/30/2010 - 16:27 | 553636 kathy.chamberli...
kathy.chamberlin@gmail.com's picture

confucius bitches† get it, china and all.

Mon, 08/30/2010 - 16:59 | 553660 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

"He who will not economize will have to agonize."

 

Confucius bitchez.

Mon, 08/30/2010 - 16:47 | 553675 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

This is just anchorman humor but "confusion bitches" just made me laugh my ass off.

+1000

Mon, 08/30/2010 - 21:19 | 554117 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

The man who taught me nearly everything I know about business used to use a phrase once in a while that I was reminded of when I read that comment:  "Where there's confusion there's opportunity." 

Usually it was used to explain why our competition was running things so  blatantly fucked up.  Every once in a while it explained why we were.

Mon, 08/30/2010 - 15:58 | 553550 Ragnarok
Ragnarok's picture

Financials selling off...

Mon, 08/30/2010 - 16:01 | 553552 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Ping ching ta ting tow repo BITCHES!

Mon, 08/30/2010 - 15:59 | 553554 Greyzone
Greyzone's picture

Let's stop and think about this. What if this is deliberate warfare? China sacrifices a pawn to expose (indirectly) that China is massively short USTs and that the recent rally was just a covering rally. What happens to USTs in the aftermath? What if China is really short USTs?

I wouldn't count on this being as obvious as some people seem to believe.

Mon, 08/30/2010 - 19:14 | 553915 aurum
aurum's picture

thats an interesting thought. short treasuries.....they are already withholding REE's, loading up on commodities, telling their people to by PM's.....what would we do if they had all the pieces in place to suddenly and fully pull the rug on the treasuries? nuke them? we dont have enough troops for combat...if the oil nations, russia, and china collaberated against us what would we do?

Mon, 08/30/2010 - 19:24 | 553926 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

We could place a 150% tariff on everything made in China. Tell the American people we are going to bringing manufacturing home. Jobs building the new plants & retooling ect, a boom for all Americans.

Mon, 08/30/2010 - 19:51 | 553960 aurum
aurum's picture

i am looking beyond a tariff imposition. they (China) will have obviously thought well through that possibility in the hypothetical chess game when it finally comes down.......us manufacture? and what will we do in the interim period to build the necessary infrastrucure with a worthless dollar while heavily addicted to foreign oil?.not so fast...our nat gas would help but we are nowhere near ready for any type serious of oil/nat gas swap.

Mon, 08/30/2010 - 20:31 | 554034 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Sure, a boom for all americans to bring back all our manufacturing....and that would take how long to start? 30 years minimum? Took 30 years to transfer it all overseas after all.

Tue, 08/31/2010 - 02:30 | 554613 Lux Fiat
Lux Fiat's picture

Had a conversation with someone who worked in the manufacturing space a few months back.  I had been of the opinion that the US would be looking at a 10-20 year time frame to rebuild industries moved overseas in the event of a (further) significant drop in the USD.  Sort of taking the "it didn't happen overnight and it won't turn around overnight" approach.  He surprised me by saying that it would be a much faster process, with a lot of it back in 2-3 years.  Any thoughts/opinions from those who are actually in the manufacturing area would be interesting.

I guess one could consider that a possible silver lining to Greyzone's unsettling, but very interesting, comments.

Tue, 08/31/2010 - 07:19 | 554755 aurum
aurum's picture

i'd like to know how he determined that time frame and if he truly considered the ramifications of a defacto bankrupt nation trying to pull off the infrastructure rebuild.....i think it would take a lot longer than that....look around now and how slow things move...shit it takes months upon months to repair existing roads let alone building an entirely new infrastructure from the ground up..one that ends an addiction to oil...i personally dont buy 2-3 years..i am in to the 10-20 camp.

Tue, 08/31/2010 - 10:17 | 555034 Lux Fiat
Lux Fiat's picture

His thinking centered on two beliefs.  1) Scarcity and prices of imports would rapidly create the opportunity to make large profits on some manufactured goods.  Those who had hard wealth or access to materials would build factories, etc. to take advantage of the outsized profits to be made, at least in the shorter term.  Depending on the level of trade barriers, exports could be highly profitable.  2) Gov't reprioritization - thought was that there still would be some form of central and state gov't around and that they would make reestablishment of domestic manufacturing capacity a priority.  Sort of akin to what happened during WWII.  It's amazing what can be accomplished in a relatively short amount of time when regulations get kicked to the curb, and complete, unrelenting focus is on getting it done fast, versus making sure that every disadvantaged and connected group gets it's piece of the pie.  He felt that in the aftermath of a currency crisis, as a nation we would have a relatively quick mind-shift as to what is truly important, especially in a "just-in-time" environment where we won't have 6 months to dither while burning off existing inventory.

As you mentioned, energy would be a/the major problem, and would likely be rationed until nuclear and other truly viable ( i.e. cost-effective sources vs political boondoggles) could come online.  Even then, don't think energy prolifigacy would ever return in a manner similar to today.

Re natural resources - his take is that our national parks are full of them.  As an avid camper, not a comforting thought, but when things get dicey, what's nice to have versus a must have can get redefined in pretty short order.

I don't know if he is right, but he's not an idiot either.  However, from my viewpoint, his scenario is largely dependent on US citizens pulling together in the face of adversity - again, ala WWII.  If that doesn't materialize, then a lot of things start going out the window.

Mon, 08/30/2010 - 20:34 | 554041 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Sure, a boom for all americans to bring back all our manufacturing....and that would take how long to start? 30 years minimum? Took 30 years to transfer it all overseas after all.

Mon, 08/30/2010 - 20:34 | 554042 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Sure, a boom for all americans to bring back all our manufacturing....and that would take how long to start? 30 years minimum? Took 30 years to transfer it all overseas after all.

Mon, 08/30/2010 - 20:34 | 554044 kathy.chamberli...
kathy.chamberlin@gmail.com's picture

EDIT:  sheep 1

 

Mon, 08/30/2010 - 20:34 | 554043 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Sure, a boom for all americans to bring back all our manufacturing....and that would take how long to start? 30 years minimum? Took 30 years to transfer it all overseas after all.

Mon, 08/30/2010 - 15:59 | 553555 redpill
redpill's picture

If true, this has black swan event written all over it

Mon, 08/30/2010 - 15:59 | 553556 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Things are not as they seem. There's lots going on behind the scenes concerning exchange rates, dollar debt, contradictory central bank policies and, yes, SDR. 

The longer the crisis drags, the more the problems percolate to the surface. Even the mighty mountain backdrop of Jackson Hole couldn't inspire confidence. 

Just as easily as they can say Zhou "lost us money", they can mean "you owe us".

Mon, 08/30/2010 - 16:32 | 553617 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

A while back, the US Congress was debating whether to label China a currency manipulator and merchantilist trader. On the very eve of meaningful actions, China reports that for the first time in years they had a trade deficit with the US. They could have made the numbers up on the spot, nobody has any idea what their balance of trade really is.

All the same, nothing happened in Congress that day. Everyone avoided a difficult action motivated as much by politics as anything else. Sigh of relief.

Fast forward to today. Rumors from China that something big is amiss. This, on the Monday after BB says "QE2 to infinity". Well now, we wonder what the Chinese thought of all that talk. Maybe come Monday morning we're finding out. If the Chairman of the PBoC "takes one for the team" even symbolically then it might signal a conflict between them and the FED and their fake-it-til-we-make-it policies.

It's Kabuki theater. You pay less attention to the players and more attention to the movements. After a bit, it's not as retarded as it seems.

Mon, 08/30/2010 - 15:59 | 553558 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Holy shit, I was actually right.  I need to screen shot my post in the original thread, as to this does not happen to me often

Mon, 08/30/2010 - 15:59 | 553559 Incubus
Incubus's picture

430 billion is nothing these days.  Ben wipes his arse with that much after taking a dump. 

 

oh... nvm that stuff is actually coming out of his ass, he doesn't wipe, it seems.

Mon, 08/30/2010 - 16:26 | 553631 geminiRX
geminiRX's picture

That would almost pay off the entire Canadian national debt.

Mon, 08/30/2010 - 17:12 | 553722 Mentaliusanything
Mentaliusanything's picture

I beg to disagree. 430 Billion is a bastard to cover. If true, somethings going to get a smack down.

Bubble Ben would love to have it as QE Lite

Mon, 08/30/2010 - 16:00 | 553561 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

 

black, black swan.

Mon, 08/30/2010 - 16:37 | 553652 -1Delta
-1Delta's picture

That would be a green swan...

Mon, 08/30/2010 - 20:42 | 554055 maddy10
maddy10's picture

Yellow swan??????

Tue, 08/31/2010 - 02:36 | 554617 Lux Fiat
Lux Fiat's picture

Brown swan?

Mon, 08/30/2010 - 16:02 | 553564 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Somebody has been unloading Goldman shares in the pits all afternoon...

TOS traders have been riding it down.

Mon, 08/30/2010 - 16:06 | 553570 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

Too much drama for me! Robo, what do you think?

Mon, 08/30/2010 - 16:28 | 553637 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

oh i love that drama

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fWZSFdbDoJk

big banks and retail... anyone see a bid today?

 

Mon, 08/30/2010 - 21:03 | 553643 kathy.chamberli...
kathy.chamberlin@gmail.com's picture

massage bitchez!

what was she massaging, i couldn't tell?

hey, why doesn't anybody answer. is this what massages consist of. ? really, why no answers, do they rub out the men? is that legal?

Mon, 08/30/2010 - 16:05 | 553572 akenathon
akenathon's picture

if this is true expect Gold to at least triple...

Mon, 08/30/2010 - 16:21 | 553619 MayIMommaDogFac...
MayIMommaDogFace2theBananaPatch's picture

Well, for a portion of a minute, anyway...

Mon, 08/30/2010 - 16:07 | 553574 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

If he has not left yet, he should.  They will probably kill him just to make sure anyway.

Mon, 08/30/2010 - 16:08 | 553575 J.B. Books
J.B. Books's picture

Gee, and I worry about my $2,600 house payment. 400+billion loss..

What if the Fed was on the other side of the trade...? And what if the Fed (using the power of the Fed) just screwed the Bank of China to the tune of 400+ billion...

LOL...  that's a nervous laugh btw..!

J.B. Books.

 

Mon, 08/30/2010 - 16:11 | 553586 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Not a chance. Central banks don't trade. They hold to maturity for the interest. 

Mon, 08/30/2010 - 16:15 | 553601 Chartist
Chartist's picture

I hear you....I worry about my $2200/month health insurance payment...

Mon, 08/30/2010 - 16:09 | 553578 Hank Scorpio
Hank Scorpio's picture

21st Century Franz Ferdinand? 

Mon, 08/30/2010 - 16:09 | 553580 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

they were delisted from NYSE

Fannie?

Freddy?

Did I miss something? My goldfish are called Fannie and Freddy! WHAT THE HELL DID THEY DO WRONG!!!

NOBODY

AND I MEAN NOBODY!!!

TOUCHES

MY GOLDFISH!!

YOU HEAR!!

 

Mon, 08/30/2010 - 16:10 | 553581 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

See what happens when chasing the dragon leads to an inability to roll over...

Mon, 08/30/2010 - 16:10 | 553582 Bearster
Bearster's picture

It makes more sense that they lost on Fannie and Freddie. Given that UST's are rallying big time, it's hard to see how they could have lost unless they tried to day trade.

In which case I don't see how this is news for US markets.  For China, perhaps this is a big news item.

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