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Finally, a Black Swan with consequence?
nah, he's just having lunch exactly where you would expect him to:
Great Ad. What did they pay you to post it here?
Great website. No directions or any idea where the restaurant is located.
about time the cracks start to appear.
- could this be the problem??
confucius bitches† get it, china and all.
"He who will not economize will have to agonize."
This is just anchorman humor but "confusion bitches" just made me laugh my ass off.
The man who taught me nearly everything I know about business used to use a phrase once in a while that I was reminded of when I read that comment: "Where there's confusion there's opportunity."
Usually it was used to explain why our competition was running things so blatantly fucked up. Every once in a while it explained why we were.
Financials selling off...
Ping ching ta ting tow repo BITCHES!
Let's stop and think about this. What if this is deliberate warfare? China sacrifices a pawn to expose (indirectly) that China is massively short USTs and that the recent rally was just a covering rally. What happens to USTs in the aftermath? What if China is really short USTs?
I wouldn't count on this being as obvious as some people seem to believe.
thats an interesting thought. short treasuries.....they are already withholding REE's, loading up on commodities, telling their people to by PM's.....what would we do if they had all the pieces in place to suddenly and fully pull the rug on the treasuries? nuke them? we dont have enough troops for combat...if the oil nations, russia, and china collaberated against us what would we do?
We could place a 150% tariff on everything made in China. Tell the American people we are going to bringing manufacturing home. Jobs building the new plants & retooling ect, a boom for all Americans.
i am looking beyond a tariff imposition. they (China) will have obviously thought well through that possibility in the hypothetical chess game when it finally comes down.......us manufacture? and what will we do in the interim period to build the necessary infrastrucure with a worthless dollar while heavily addicted to foreign oil?.not so fast...our nat gas would help but we are nowhere near ready for any type serious of oil/nat gas swap.
Sure, a boom for all americans to bring back all our manufacturing....and that would take how long to start? 30 years minimum? Took 30 years to transfer it all overseas after all.
Had a conversation with someone who worked in the manufacturing space a few months back. I had been of the opinion that the US would be looking at a 10-20 year time frame to rebuild industries moved overseas in the event of a (further) significant drop in the USD. Sort of taking the "it didn't happen overnight and it won't turn around overnight" approach. He surprised me by saying that it would be a much faster process, with a lot of it back in 2-3 years. Any thoughts/opinions from those who are actually in the manufacturing area would be interesting.
I guess one could consider that a possible silver lining to Greyzone's unsettling, but very interesting, comments.
i'd like to know how he determined that time frame and if he truly considered the ramifications of a defacto bankrupt nation trying to pull off the infrastructure rebuild.....i think it would take a lot longer than that....look around now and how slow things move...shit it takes months upon months to repair existing roads let alone building an entirely new infrastructure from the ground up..one that ends an addiction to oil...i personally dont buy 2-3 years..i am in to the 10-20 camp.
His thinking centered on two beliefs. 1) Scarcity and prices of imports would rapidly create the opportunity to make large profits on some manufactured goods. Those who had hard wealth or access to materials would build factories, etc. to take advantage of the outsized profits to be made, at least in the shorter term. Depending on the level of trade barriers, exports could be highly profitable. 2) Gov't reprioritization - thought was that there still would be some form of central and state gov't around and that they would make reestablishment of domestic manufacturing capacity a priority. Sort of akin to what happened during WWII. It's amazing what can be accomplished in a relatively short amount of time when regulations get kicked to the curb, and complete, unrelenting focus is on getting it done fast, versus making sure that every disadvantaged and connected group gets it's piece of the pie. He felt that in the aftermath of a currency crisis, as a nation we would have a relatively quick mind-shift as to what is truly important, especially in a "just-in-time" environment where we won't have 6 months to dither while burning off existing inventory.
As you mentioned, energy would be a/the major problem, and would likely be rationed until nuclear and other truly viable ( i.e. cost-effective sources vs political boondoggles) could come online. Even then, don't think energy prolifigacy would ever return in a manner similar to today.
Re natural resources - his take is that our national parks are full of them. As an avid camper, not a comforting thought, but when things get dicey, what's nice to have versus a must have can get redefined in pretty short order.
I don't know if he is right, but he's not an idiot either. However, from my viewpoint, his scenario is largely dependent on US citizens pulling together in the face of adversity - again, ala WWII. If that doesn't materialize, then a lot of things start going out the window.
EDIT: sheep 1
If true, this has black swan event written all over it
Things are not as they seem. There's lots going on behind the scenes concerning exchange rates, dollar debt, contradictory central bank policies and, yes, SDR.
The longer the crisis drags, the more the problems percolate to the surface. Even the mighty mountain backdrop of Jackson Hole couldn't inspire confidence.
Just as easily as they can say Zhou "lost us money", they can mean "you owe us".
A while back, the US Congress was debating whether to label China a currency manipulator and merchantilist trader. On the very eve of meaningful actions, China reports that for the first time in years they had a trade deficit with the US. They could have made the numbers up on the spot, nobody has any idea what their balance of trade really is.
All the same, nothing happened in Congress that day. Everyone avoided a difficult action motivated as much by politics as anything else. Sigh of relief.
Fast forward to today. Rumors from China that something big is amiss. This, on the Monday after BB says "QE2 to infinity". Well now, we wonder what the Chinese thought of all that talk. Maybe come Monday morning we're finding out. If the Chairman of the PBoC "takes one for the team" even symbolically then it might signal a conflict between them and the FED and their fake-it-til-we-make-it policies.
It's Kabuki theater. You pay less attention to the players and more attention to the movements. After a bit, it's not as retarded as it seems.
Holy shit, I was actually right. I need to screen shot my post in the original thread, as to this does not happen to me often
430 billion is nothing these days. Ben wipes his arse with that much after taking a dump.
oh... nvm that stuff is actually coming out of his ass, he doesn't wipe, it seems.
That would almost pay off the entire Canadian national debt.
I beg to disagree. 430 Billion is a bastard to cover. If true, somethings going to get a smack down.
Bubble Ben would love to have it as QE Lite
black, black swan.
That would be a green swan...
Somebody has been unloading Goldman shares in the pits all afternoon...
TOS traders have been riding it down.
Too much drama for me! Robo, what do you think?
oh i love that drama
big banks and retail... anyone see a bid today?
what was she massaging, i couldn't tell?
hey, why doesn't anybody answer. is this what massages consist of. ? really, why no answers, do they rub out the men? is that legal?
if this is true expect Gold to at least triple...
Well, for a portion of a minute, anyway...
If he has not left yet, he should. They will probably kill him just to make sure anyway.
Gee, and I worry about my $2,600 house payment. 400+billion loss..
What if the Fed was on the other side of the trade...? And what if the Fed (using the power of the Fed) just screwed the Bank of China to the tune of 400+ billion...
LOL... that's a nervous laugh btw..!
Not a chance. Central banks don't trade. They hold to maturity for the interest.
I hear you....I worry about my $2200/month health insurance payment...
21st Century Franz Ferdinand?
they were delisted from NYSE
they were delisted from NYSE
Did I miss something? My goldfish are called Fannie and Freddy! WHAT THE HELL DID THEY DO WRONG!!!
AND I MEAN NOBODY!!!
See what happens when chasing the dragon leads to an inability to roll over...
It makes more sense that they lost on Fannie and Freddie. Given that UST's are rallying big time, it's hard to see how they could have lost unless they tried to day trade.
In which case I don't see how this is news for US markets. For China, perhaps this is a big news item.
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