This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Where In The World Is Zhou Xiaochuan? Stratfor Provides Update As 1 Month Chinese Repo Surges By 50%
For those seeking an update on today rumor du jour, here is Stratfor with some additional insights, if nothing definitive yet. But before we get into that, we have received the following update from our Chinese media readers across the Pacific: "Here is the link of the Ming Pao report. http://inews.mingpao.com/htm/INews/20100830/gb11502c.htm It says that "China may punish Zhou because China lost $430 billion foreign exchange on its Fannie and Freddie bond investment". It doesn't say anything about U.S. Treasury Bonds. The truth is that many Chinese thought China lost all its investment in Fannie and Freddie after they were delisted from NYSE. It is also wrong because China doesn't invest with their stocks." All in all, seems like lots of confusion pretty much everywhere, although the market is not taking any chances, with China's 1 Month Repo exploding by nearly 50%.
Summary
STRATFOR is continuing to examine unconfirmed rumors that Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People's Bank of China, fled China to the United States. The origin of the report has been hard to track, especially due to censorship of websites discussing the rumors, so the unconfirmed rumors remain just that -- unconfirmed. However, if true, these rumors could have significant implications for China and for Sino-U.S. relations.
Analysis
STRATFOR is continuing to investigate unconfirmed rumors circulating in Chinese media to the effect that Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People's Bank of China, has fled China to the United States. At present there is still no confirmation.
The provenance of the rumor has proved hard to track. A report attributed to Hong Kong's Ming Pao newspaper on Aug. 28 said that Zhou might be punished for a large loss on U.S Treasury bonds worth $430 billion, and that the Chinese government might also punish others in the People's Bank of China. The report allegedly originated on an unknown but "major" Chinese discussion forum, and that forum suggested that Zhou had left the country. Ming Pao denied it had published the report Aug. 30, saying others had used Ming Pao's name without permission to distribute the rumor. STRATFOR has not yet been able to track down the original report, most likely because the Chinese government appears to be actively censoring websites discussing the rumors, deleting some web pages and blocking search engine results that involve Zhou's name and words relating to a possible defection. Rumors have continued to circulate on Chinese blogs and web forums, in particular suggesting that Zhou may have defected to the United States. The reports are still posted on the blog of a professor, Liu Bingfu, whose career experience suggests he is a notable, if minor, academic.
Zhou cannot be confirmed to have appeared in public since the rumors began. The official website of the People's Bank of China has reported on Zhou's activities Aug. 30 -- such as attending meetings with officials from Japan and Italy -- in what appears to be unusual coverage, including photos, and may be an attempt to counteract the rumors. The pictures were taken from a distance but do appear to show Zhou, though it cannot be confirmed whether the photos were in fact taken on Aug. 30. Zhou's last televised appearance was on Aug. 26 on CCTV, attending a conference with Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, and images of the TV appearance also seem to show Zhou. Zhou had attended official events Aug. 10, in which he called for China to continue developing its western regions, and Aug. 3, when he met with his South Korean and Japanese counterparts.
Therefore what STRATFOR has at the moment remains unconfirmed rumors. If the reports are false, it would seem likely that Zhou will make a public appearance soon to dispel them. Otherwise speculation will continue. There are constantly rumors that high-level Chinese officials are in danger of a downfall, especially dealing with economic policymakers amid the economic challenges in recent years -- this year alone, such rumors have touched Wen and top banking regulator Liu Mingkang. Similarly, China has undertaken an extensive drive over the past year targeting corrupt officials, and a variant of the rumors about Zhou suggests he has disappeared from the public spotlight because he is under investigation for corruption.
What makes the rumors about Zhou more interesting, beyond his position as governor of the central bank, is the specific claim that he has defected to the United States. If true, this would have serious ramifications for domestic and foreign perceptions of China's political and financial stability, as well as for U.S.-Chinese relations. Though the rumors may prove false, their emergence alone likely suggests an attempt to detract from Zhou's reputation. This could be related to his economic policies -- while the rumor of a loss of $430 billion related to U.S. Treasury bills is difficult to comprehend without more context, China has recently adjusted its foreign exchange reserve management, or Zhou may have been targeted as part of the factional struggles ahead of leadership transition in 2012. However, it is relatively rare in China for political leaders to be punished for failed policies, and more likely the consequence of scandals, misconduct or political purges.
»
- 27505 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Wondered who would replace little Turbo Timmy.
I picked the wrong week to drop the Stampeding Drama Llama channel.
oh, hef face juice, nice dry humor.
Has anyone seen the coverage on Qaddafi's visit to Rome yet?
Surreal. Completely surreal.
it's all becoming very python
http://www.france24.com/en/20100829-gaddafi-rome-visit-berlusconi-busine...
What if UncleBen called today and informed his bud...
" uuummmm' no bailout for Fannie & Freddie, F You".
September 7, 2008
The government takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is making waves far off American shores. China is watching the events closely because some 10 percent of China's gross domestic product is invested with the troubled mortgage giants. NPR's Adam Davidson talks with host Jacki Lyden about China's stake in the U.S. mortgage industry.
Gold flash spike to $3400?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IGKAveMY0kc
WTF ??
No idea, video popped up when I was searching for news on our man Zhou. Trying to confirm elsewhere... lookie this chart
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=GCU10.CMX
This view of the same chart is different:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=GCU10.CMX+Interactive#symbol=GCU10.CMX;range=1d
scale glitch?
No idea, but it separately lists the Day's Range as 1234.0-3401.50, which is rather odd
GMTA
It's a glitch of some kind. Odd that they haven't corrected it.
It may be a day for many odd things that beg correction. Or else, maybe things really are worse than we could possibly imagine.
Or both, hah.
But even so, Yahoo is reporting the 3401 number in the daily range. Curious.
Max K. clues.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GZ2swdKWbHE&feature=player_embedded#!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YUxZRJxNrMI&NR=1
holy heck batman, how can M A X K E I S E R B so damn sexy and delivering the truth. damn boy your H O T
- what the hell, just 5 minutes ago, this was the chart posted, something is afoot.
http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/b?s=GCU10.CMX&lang=en-US®ion=US
It's all coming apart at the seams!!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V0SJYgBjm1A
rusty rusty rusty
S H O R T S s h o r t s
damn
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P4HQbRuWJUU
is it being addressed or mentioned anywhere?
WSJ Market Data doesn't show anything like it.
Yahoo for FAIL
Not long ago they had Merval closing +906% on an optimistic decimal point.
that is really neat to see tyler's mug and zero hedge on youtube. how do you do that.? you video the website page? well, hitting the media a lot lately, impressing me with your notoriety.
zerohedge, bitchez.
I have followed this thread and thought about this in my house, in my pool and now over an early Tank & Tonic.
Until my man Zhou appears there is no way to know. And just because China doesn't say anything might not mean anything. I assume our Chinese buddies have the mother of all prop desks.
I would call bull shit on this whole story, except contrary to some in the thread I have always found Stratfor to be honest in their reporting. That doesn't mean they don't get used for disinformation but I think they are upright.
What is more relevant to me is that every time there is a scare like this I panic and think: I have been too slow to protect my assets! There will come a day when that will be for real. Non-action is Russian roulette...
"Non-action is Russian roulette..."
I can flip that around, and tell you that it's often best to sit tight and wait out the rumors/ disinformation which are endemic in this wolf market.
Oh I agree with that. But I have been formulating a strategy to LEGALLY spread my money around the world some. Because some day I truly believe there will be a freeze frame moment in the U.S. where savers/investors are screwed in a matter of days. So gold in an Austrian safety deposit box; empty land in Nova Scotia; a Singapore bank account, etc. may feel very right on that day. But it is easy to let time pass away. That was my point. Hang in there Leo.
Stratfor has been pretty straight-up and unbiased in my experience.
However, Friedman appears to have a hate-on for China. He was calling for the collapse of the banking system back in 2005. He believed some state bank closures over the US's memorial day holiday were actually bank holidays because they were experiencing liquidity issues.
I don't know if he got pwned here or what.
Tell me Where IN THE WORLD IS Zhou Xiaochuan?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wdzyuJJZMCI
Hmmmmm.........
I guess Jerome Kerviel was a rank amatuer after all!!
Half a Trillion........I'd be in hiding too!
It's gonna really suck when they park a couple of 9 X 18 Makarovs in his skull for safe keeping.
They found him at Illinois TRS's office. :)
LMAO!
WTF. Does Stratfor or Zerohedge have anyone on staff that actually reads Chinese? And/or heard of Google Translate? Embarassing rank amateurs.
Here's a literal translation of the link referenced above: http://inews.mingpao.com/htm/INews/20100830/gb11502c.htm
"Mainland websites today passed around fake news reports pretending to be from the Ming Pao. ... These reports aroused rumors that Zhou Xiaochuang had fled. The editorial board of Ming Pao hereby clarify that we have never published the above report. We strongly condemn the use of Ming Pao's name in manufacturing this false news. We will appeal to the relevant authorities, and also pursue those responsible."
Thx...China Daily made no mention of this, but did post an article on PBOC's second-generation online banking service:
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2010-08/30/content_11227167.htm
More subterfuge. Everyone knows the popular Ming Pao chicken dish can't write newswire. Show me Zhou’s head on a platter and I will form my own conclusions. O.k. "heech"? Or should I say General Tsao?
And you believe that shit?
An oldie but goodie from The Onion that bears repeating:
U.S. Economy Grinds To Halt As Nation Realizes Money Just A Symbolic, Mutually Shared IllusionWhen China (and all of the world's central banks) can create infinite money from nothing, how exactly do they "lose money"?
Brilliant.
But the video is as good:
http://www.theonion.com/video/in-the-know-should-the-government-stop-dumping-mon,14289/
"If you love America you throw money in the hole."
Yep.
Another classic from The Onion crew.
"America NEEDS the money hole"
Hah! $430 billion. 'Tis but a flesh wound.
To OUR Gv't, to them, it's 50% of their Treasury Holdings.
What are you going to do, bleed on me?!
Classic.
Zhou says - "inquire for me tomorrow, and you will find me a grave man."
I suppose camping out at the United States Military Protectorate of Formosa counts as defecting to the USA.
I esp like this part..........
"China may punish Zhou because China lost $430 billion foreign exchange on its Fannie and Freddie bond investment".
7.62 to the back of the head,assume kneeling position.........(splat!)
The Chinese have a LONG standing tradition of murdering people who make POOR decisions.
It makes them feel Embarrased, because they want the world to think they are superhuman.
NO Mistakes.
anyone else think there might be mileage in this approach with Bernanke, Greenspan, Bush, various NeoCons?
PBoC put two pictures of Xiaochuan on their site, apparently from today:
Governor Zhou Xiaochuan met with Japanese Finance minister
http://www.pbc.gov.cn/detail.asp?col=100&id=3767
Governor Zhou Xiaochuan met with International Financial Reporting Standards Foundation Trustee Chairman, Italy's former Economy and Finance Minister Tommaso sent over Asia - Schioppa
http://www.pbc.gov.cn/detail.asp?col=100&id=3765
OMFG
If Mr. Padoa-Schioppa is involved than we are most certainly "well and truly fucked"
He was one of the brilliant brains behind the Euro failure and has currently been invited by Papandreou to discuss how to dispose of the Greek problem.
Well, he may know a thing or two about the the problems he helped to create.
If we combine him with Zhou, one of the most influential economic figures in the world and was ranked 9th by Foreign Policy in the Top 100 Global Thinkers report, We may have some trouble on our hands.
I mean if #9 Global Thinker might be responsible for a 0.5 T fuck up....It makes you wonder who the #1 Global fuck up is and what his track record looks like.
LMAO
Well I hate to disappoint you, he certainly deserves a place much higher up on the FP list.
# 1 Global thinker: Our beloved chairman himself Banana Ben closely followed by the one and only Hussein Obama.
I think we should give credit to the fact that Ben has the potential of doing much more damage than Greenspan ever has done. If FP proves to be wrong, which I seriously doubt, they can always kick BB further down the list and upgrade Greenspan accordingly.
LMAO
absurd. They have huge gains. Probably quit to go work at Pimco.
If this story is outed as pure bullshit, Stratfor is going to look incredibly stupid.
Wow, maybe that tin foil hat wearin Jim Willie was on to something when he suggested that the $1.5 trillion dollar bond discrepency was actuall Wall Street banks naked short selling treasury bonds. That would fit the scenario.
Fannie/Freddie bonds are backed by US govt and China is holding them to maturity. So where is the problem ? Need an intelligent answer instead of the BS answers flying all around.
Likely found in Macau casino.
I O U $430,000,000,000 signed,your old mate and comrade Zhou.
Confucius say:
Man who goes to bed with itchy fanny, wake up with smelly finger....
ROTFL
R E A L L Y
Confucius, bitches
cute dog
Confucius also say...
Man who go to work with itchy finger loose $430 Billion and come home shitting pants.
I'm still waiting for the runners of comex to show up on craiglist trying to sell 40 thousand pounds of "cain" which is really just gold medal flour.
I saw him at Lee Ho Fooks... His hair was perfect!
But Treasys are up 25% in 5 months!?
gonna get a big dish of beef chow mein.
You think they'll rip his lungs out, Jim?
Huh, I'd like to meet his tailor.
your dice roll a 5 and a 1.
tailor, weaver, or a central banker.
"The pictures were taken from a distance but do appear to show Zhou"
Show Zhow!!! Too many Zhows here. Just Zhow me the moneeeey!!! I think he must have actually made $400 bln when the spread of all the FNM and FRE debt on his book collapsed to ZERO....but patience, he will loose them back and tons more when the market forgets what finance 101 books say and realize that treasuries are not risk-free assets.
The closest contestant in where in the world is Zhou is the post that says he is in Macau in a casino. He is in a casino indeed, placing the largest bet on earth, but the casino's address is 32 Cheng Fang St. in Beijing. BTW all the world's chips are on the table.
Like it or not, the long play is for the Renminbi to be the new reserve currancy Yang to the Greenback's Yin. I don't see China, increasingly nationalistic, to leapfrog over the yuan - supported by their manufacturing base, and embracing the SDR as the new reserve savior. The BIS and Basel 2 treated all those government banks like red headed step children since BOC opened their NY branch since the 1980's. Hard to believe that China is going to drink the SDR Kool Aid.
They are not, at least not in the long run. Remember that the Chinese play in decades not days. They will play along until they can collapse the dollar then tell the IMF "Solly Challie" no renminbi for your SDRs... but I have a nice north kolean dlinky gill for you...
Top China Bank Official's Defection Rumors QuashedAugust 30, 2010; 7:50 PM ET
"U.S. government officials are throwing cold water on super-heated internal Chinese reports that the head of China’s top bank has defected."
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/spy-talk/2010/08/zhou_xiaochuan_defection...
Dude was a significant promoter of SDR's:
On March 24, 2009, Zhou gave a speech entitled Reform the International Monetary System, in which he argued that the ongoing financial crisis was made more severe by inherent weaknesses of the current international monetary system and called for a gradual move towards using IMF Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) as a centrally managed global reserve currency. He argued that this would address the inadequacies of using a national currency as a global reserve currency
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhou_Xiaochuan
http://www.pbc.gov.cn/english/detail.asp?col=6500&id=178
And then we have this from the IMF in the last 2 days:
Reconsidering The International Monetary System
Presentation by John Lipsky, First Deputy Managing Director, International Monetary Fund
http://www.eurasiareview.com/201008287508/reconsidering-the-international-monetary-system.html
? Any chance this is a synthetic paper loss to cover Chinese stealth capitalization of their incipient share of the SDR's float ?
Anyone know when the China PMI figure gets released? Must be sometime in the next 24 hours.
yra harris just commented on this situation on his blog. the rumor is absurd, he says. i'll agree.
yrah53.wordpress.com
And here for all ZH hypochondriacs :
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/08/31/330101/wheres-zhou-xiaochuan/
This site is nothing else than a professional fear mongering community !
This only confirms Stratfor's incompetence. If Stratfor had found and read the Ming Pao article, like one of ZH's Chinese-speaking readers did (kudos), Stratfor would have known that although Ming Pao was not the source of the defection rumor, Ming Pao was the source of the $430b loss rumor, and that latter rumor concerned GSE bonds, not Treasuries.
Either Stratfor was too lazy to search Ming Pao's site, or they don't even have anybody who can read Chinese. Weak, weak, weak, weak.
just now saw tis statement in seeking alpha .......--------
A flexible yuan isn't a magic bullet, says PBOC Deputy Governor Hu Xiaolian. The "yuan doesn't have a key role to play in rebalancing bilateral trade between the U.S. and China... [and] I don't think excessive debate on this issue will help."
just now saw tis statement in seeking alpha .......--------
A flexible yuan isn't a magic bullet, says PBOC Deputy Governor Hu Xiaolian. The "yuan doesn't have a key role to play in rebalancing bilateral trade between the U.S. and China... [and] I don't think excessive debate on this issue will help."
still no sign of the governor
Article is very interesting,thanks for your sharing.I will visit this site.welcome to my site!.... cheap site hosting
windows web hosting
windows vps hosting