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Whither "Debt to the Penny?"
Perhaps it is just me, but isn't Treasury Direct's "to the penny" national debt meter supposed to update "daily?" Or is there an update lag of some kind? The meter is currently frozen on November 19th. Oddly, there wasn't more than a 24 hour lag last week. The site itself is singularly unhelpful in finding an answer.
Not only that, and I hope you will forgive me for asking this, but what transactions exactly dropped the total debt by $27.5 billion on a Wednesday and Thursday last week, right before updates cease? That's not unprecedented (the record daily drop for 2009 is $71 billion) but it is quite interesting.
Update: Apparently, they've just now added data for the 20th and Zero Hedge is pleased to report that the new data now marks a three day streak of negative figures in the debt's second derivative. Just in time for a big borrow from the FDIC and FHA! We are also delighted to report that continued declines at the pace of the last 3 days of data will pay off the entire debt in 3.43 years.
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The day the dollar died?
Well, not yet anyway. But it appears the Treasury is piling on the bandwagon of exceptionalism heretofore reserved for the FDIC. Even worse, they haven't kicked the can on the law yet -- so odds are high the government is soon to be operating illegally, if it isn't already.
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"That would be just a coincidence"
-B.S. Bernanke
Marla,
I've always been amused how these numbers are quoted down to the penny. Was it measured at the end of the day GMT or 4 PM Eastern? If they find a nickel on the floor do they adjust for it or is there a jar on Turbo Tax Timmy's desk for stray loose change that's spent once a year on pizza for the staff?
Of course, this is done for specific psychological reasons for we all understand that absolute precision infers accuracy and honesty. In the really good Con, it's the tiny details that lend legitimacy to the Ponzi which ultimately sucks in the reluctant (but greedy) minnows.
Bottom line, it's out own failure of imagination that dooms us to the perpetual Ponzi. We simply can't conceive others could be so evil.
I'll have pepperoni on mine, thanks.
What's the difference between ignorance and apathy?
I don't know, and I don't care.
"What's the difference between ignorance and apathy?
I don't know, and I don't care."
HAHA, very good...
Perpetual Ponzi pizza, I like it.
With anchovies, I like it extra fishy.
It's the new math.
Every week there are Treasury Bills that mature and there might be a mismatch between these Bills rolling off and the cash settlement of the new issuance for that week. The general trend is undoubtedly up though.
my Iphone debt clock, yes there is a free app for that too, has the debt at
12,172,454....5....6....7....
Really?
That'd be over the limit of $12.104 trillion.
hmmm that is peculiar..
"It is not obvious that the debt ceiling is relevent."
-B.S. Bernanke
Tried to submit a question to the site through their "e-mail us" section. Got this:
We're sorry... The server has encountered an error, and we're unable to process your request.We're sorry for the inconvenience and are investigating the problem. In the meantime, our contact information is available at www.treasurydirect.gov if you need assistance.
Thank you for visiting our website.
The cogs on the numbers have worn out from extreme overuse
I was on Treasury Direct site looking to double check ZH's figures in a piece a couple weeks ago. I found the site to be wholly useless in answering the basic questions of how much we owe at what rates due when. I saw the "debt to a penny" link and didn't even click on it. Just cause your fudged numbers include pennies doesn't make them accurate; Madoff's clients had statements with decimal points too.
The ZH article I mention: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/us-lunatic-asylum-ie-economy-facing-approximately-15-trillion-roll-risk-2012
And while Treasury Direct couldn't help, thankfully a NYTimes story provides sufficient detail to check TD's #'s: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/23/business/23rates.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all
maybe somebody mailed in some contributions to reduce the debt.
<rim shot>
My vote is shenanigans all around! To the "lowering" of the debt it's either an outright lie or they looted some pensions or pulled some accounting tricks to bring the number in. As to not updating, they might be trying to figure out what accounting con they are going to run. After all they "can't" be over the debt limit, that would be "illegal" and we know our government never does anything illegal...
If they wanted to be honest with us they would just put the infinity symbol in for the debt. Everyone in the world knows we aren't good for it. Near as I can figure we are the huge drunk guy in the bar who happens to be holding a very large gun and begging drinks off the patrons. Sure we say we'll pay them back but we all know that's just pillow talk. I wonder how the world would put up with our lies and fraud if we didn't have so many bombs and tanks?
Probably either printed up some money to fund social security or simply moved some of the borrowed against entries against it. Yes the fed is is it's own bank. It is both creditor and debtor against any asset and it borrows against unfunded social security because it doesn't even follow the rules of the time space continuum. Self agrandized. Self funded, Self Powered yet asserting the right to bother everyone. Give it something real and it will horde it and keep it to itself and make copies of it to distrubute to everyone else.
watching the usdebtclock.org and found it cheats also.
Watching for the 3rd nine before debt turned to 12 trillion
3 times the third nine never arrived when it should have. That probably doesnt matter. Had a witness first 2 times.
This one is still working
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
marla:
I have followed this site for years. The site is updated usually towards the end of the day with the previous days number. I have not seen anything out of the ordinary in a long time. Sometimes the numbers can have huge swings.
appears to be updated now
Negative interest rates Marla.... Cash flowed into the Treasuries coffers (ain't that something new?)
yeah, here is Friday's number finally:
11/20/2009 7,611,082,619,937.08 4,399,479,122,278.13 12,010,561,742,215.21$1 bil less than Thursday. Who needs a debt ceiling when you've got creative accounting?
Data is delayed by one day. The data from the day previous is posted at 3pm each day.
The Debt to the Penny is NORMALLY updated daily. It is based on the figures from the Treasury Daily Statement, which is normally released every day, shortly after 4:00pm. The daily statement reflects accounting through the end of the prior day. You can access these at http://www.fms.treas.gov/dts/index.html. Note that this site is also 24 hours behind -- Friday's statement is not available there.
The Debt to the Penny figures do not include receivables/payables, nor cash balances. The drop in total debt by $27.5 billion last week was achieved by reducing the Treasury's cash balance [due to greater debt redemptions that issuances]. This is reflected in the statements for 18th and 19th.
Isn't interesting how it gets updated right after Zero Hedge posts an article?
I'd argue that the first number was right, however with public notice that'd indicate deflation, so the misinformation campaign must remain seamless.
I'm confused looking at http://www.usdebtclock.org/
its says over 15m are unemployed but 37m are on food stamps? are you guys running Ethiopia over there? We can spare Bob Geldof if you want him (and Bono, in fact, I insist that you take Bono)
maybe they're selling gold and recording the proceeds
But we're over the 12 trillion legal limit, right?
$12.104 is the limit.
Apologies for the correction Marla...
the word isn't 'limit', because limit would imply something that must not be exceeded, whereas target would be a more appropriate word in this situation don't you think :)
How about "suggestion"?
Suggested limit subject to correction?
If we are going over a cliff might as well:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tZ2YaThEms0
Sing!
This accuracy makes me wanna donate to the Treasury ;) NOT
If we all donated $39,000, it would be paid off in no time!
God forgive me for what I'm about to say but based upon the Fed's convoluted logic, it seems to me if we borrowed $39,000 each (or whatever the number is per individual) from the Fed, paid the debt off, then abolished the Fed as having not acted in the interest of the public and thus all its debt is illegitimate and not an obligation of the American citizens, wouldn't that some how extinguish to debt?
It makes about as much sense as anything I've heard from the Fed the past 30 years. Since we're simply taking money from one pocket to pay debts in another pocket, can't we just pay ourselves off?
It makes my head hurt just thinking in this manner.
I have tens of trillions of dollars (in Zim paper currency, seriously). The USA could briefly use their creative accounting for Zim 1:1 and I would gladly personally pay off the US debit being the nice ZH'er I am. Where do I mail my trillions of Zim dollars?
hmm...I am pretty confident that the trend of this number is UP UP UP UP
Chicago Math
Look at it this way:either the numbers are false(designed to avoid reaching the debt ceiling)and in that case how can one find out?. Or they are true,and debt is declining (while tax reciept are declining too), So the question then becomes how is this taking place?. Possible answers:1- the FED has bought equities for the treasury(during the lows of FEB and Mar) and peiodically sells them in the open market in return for treasuries(I think there was a question by Grayson to the fed attorney whether the fed has bought equities). The FEd is covertly still buying treasuries beyond the annonced 300 bil.3- Selling gold from Fort Knox. However,does ZH have anykind of approximate calculation as to where the debt should be?
the fed debt should be increasing in inverse ratio to fdic funds decline. oh wait they're both on time out. even when you die, it's not official, till the doctor calls it. this subconscious preocupation with zombies, is starting to make sense. is there such a thing as a vampire zombie?
The solution is simple:
According to the Constitution Congress has the right to coin money and regulate its value.
What prevents them making a coin nominated at ten trillion dollars. Also, make it gold to be totally legal. Now the debt is covered.
Then give it to the Chinese so they owe us eight trillions.
Evaluate the Integers in the debt figure against Benford's law over time to arrive at a conclusion of whether the books are cooked or not.
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