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Wholesale Inventory-To-Sales Ratio Drops To Record Low As Sales Of Petroleum Products Surge In Advance Of Price Hike
Another quite odd data point about the US Economy: while US wholesale inventories came at 1.1% on expectations of 0.9%, (a drop from the revised 1.3%), wholesale sales increased by 3.4% on expectations of 0.5%, (and the previous revised from 0.4% to 1.1%). A headline glance would indicate a trend of improvement, as the Inventory/Sales ratio dropped to an all time low 1.13. Yet digging into the wholesale data indicates that not is as it seems: "Compared to last month, sales of motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts and supplies were up 7.8 percent and sales of electrical and electronic goods were up 3.4 percent. Sales of non durable goods were up 4.4 percent (+/-0.9%) from last month and were up 16.2 percent (+/-2.1%) from last year. Sales of petroleum and petroleum products were up 10.6 percent from last month and sales of farm product raw materials were up 5.7 percent." It appears that the bounce in wholesale sales was attributed primarily to stockpiling of oil products in advance of what many anticipated (correctly) would be an oil price shock. Look for this metric to plummet in February and March as prices have no caught up with reality.
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Duh!
On another note: Silver and to a lesser extent Gold is being hammered down (as usual). BTFD!
I hope they hammer it some more I took profits too early ;( and silver bullion is unacceptably high
Looks like you just missed the dip. It's headed back up faster than it was manipulated down. Someone has a BTFD auto-script file running.
Oh, you betcha. Many, many someones. One definition of a bull market; the dips are bought.
Nah, the economy is just recovering from all the snowstorms.
It takes a while to use up the Bread and Milk purchased for a snow storm weather report.
you must live in the south.
A country boy can survive.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HlUaZlyct5M
thirty years ago, I used to trade a commodity account actively, and my broker, who was a friend, used to call me Long John Silver. (first name john).
I know I stocked up. Filled the 300 gallon tanks on stands with gas and farm diesel, and fill some more 55gal drums.
That's a temporary solution. You need one of these.
http://www.gengas.nu/byggbes/index.shtml
Hmmm....a 2.4 million barrel uptick in crude supplies......
OH how CNBS can't connect the dots with that sack of manure Steve Leismen!
Did you see the drawdown in refined products? Or total petroleum inventories?
From: http://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
How much of that drawdown could be attributed to using up winter blends in preparation for the release of the summer formulations?
Crude
Ready to fall.
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/99er-charts-0
I think you're right. The fundamentals aren't there for the prices; it's mostly speculation and the pro's. makes just as much on the downside as they do on the upside.
I bought 55 gal drums for $5 each 2 months ago.
I'm filling some of 'em up this week.
I was in Raleigh last Saturday. We stopped in to the Crabtree Valley Mall. We couldn't find a place to park, it took 20 minutes. The mall was PACKED...PACKED I say! You would have thought they were having 75% off sales the day before Christmas. I can't understand it. It felt surreal. (Malls are surreal to me anyway, but this was very, very wierd.)
It's tax return season...
Bingo - couldn't believe how large the lines were at Best Buy last weekend.
If you're playing long retail, Best Buy is as good a bet as any ... until 'kaboom' that is.
where do you think people who live in their cars park?
Truck stops - I saw five people living out of their vehicles at a Flying J outside of Tampa recently. Open 24/7. nobody messes with you, and clean showers are $10 (you can earn free ones with reward cards)...
Next oil peak approaching:
Brent oil futures, the benchmark contract for European oil, rose $2.25, or 2%, to $115.31 a barrel on ICE Futures in London.
Approaching??? It's entering the rear view mirror...
Here is a toy model of oil pricing:
Oil price inelasticity = -0.06 to 0.07 i.e. 1% cut -> 14-16% price increase
Brent Price Jan 2005 ~$40
World Net Exports since Jan 2005 = ~ -9%
Dollar index factor for time period: DXY 90/76
Predicted value of brent today: $108 - $118
Absolutly fucking remarkable, eh?
Thats great.
He's easily distracted by techno-babble; there is no "predicted value" of anything. Next significant move in crude price is down; say at 65% probability. Good enough to trade on; but I'm not. The guaranteed pay-out is short the Long Bond on the CME; you can hold this position for a year or more.
The real money is made on the trend...not the noise. Start fading oil assets at 125, if you insist.
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