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Why The "World Is Down, But Far From Out" Even If It Is Worse Than You May Have Believed Originally
The man who back in May wrote "Why the world is better than you think", only for the world to turn out about as bad as thought, if not much worse, Jim O'Neill, has just released the sequel to his required reading Kool Aid, "The World Is Down, But Far From Out" (is that a tacit apology for the previous title full of sound and fury?) which is currently making the rounds at all pension and mutual funds as well as all other institutions whose existence depends on the perpetuation of the illusion that the market is undervalued and that America is solvent. The latest essay provides absolutely nothing new and original in terms of though, and merely regurgitates the traditional expectation that China will rescue the world, as it continues decoupling from everyone else. We wonder if it has ever dawned on anyone that the only reason why China is so "resilient" in the face of the ongoing depression is because all of its numbers are completely made up? But that is apocryphal so we wont even ask that rhetorically, and accept at face value O'Neill projection that Chinese GDP will increase by over $7 trillion in the next 9 years, or nearly 3 times more than the US, even as both countries issue about $20 trillion in incremental debt (not bad: $2 of debt for $1 in GDP - even economists can probably figure that out). And where will this growth come from if not from the traditional driver of near-zero cost growth: low interest debt? Oh, so Jim is basically saying the world will grow arithmetically, as the credit bubble (now in its global iteration) grows semi-exponentially. Truly wonderful news.
Yet even O'Neill, in his permabullish element, finally agrees that his entire forecast is based on one and only variable coming true- the Fed's ongoing debasement of the dollar: "Over the past couple of months, as evidence has accumulated that the US economy is slowing once again, US financial conditions have not tightened. Indeed, as a result of the aggressive policies of the Federal Reserve, conditions have remained very easy. In order for our more positive underlying views of the world to bear fruit, it is important that this situation persists." Basically, the entire global growth story, decoupling included, is based on what side of the bed the chairman of the politically and special interest independent Federa Reserve wakes up on.
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Debasement, bitchez!
by Jim in MN
"Debasement, bitchez!"
An eloquent interpretation of asset preservation.
"Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned.
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.[82
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Butler_Yeats]
This fellow Yeats seems to agree.
debasement, decouple, divorce, bitchez†
Please effing stop with the effing 'bitchez' - I am effing getting effed off with it.
Yours, apologetically for using the word effing so effing often.
DavidC
All things come to he that is patient.
Fuck, I'm sick of it, too. Cut that shit out.
well, it is fun. sorry, i will try and grant you all your wishes.
LOL. I really wanted to be first, once, and say it, once.
Fortunately I succeeded on the first try. So.
But based on ironclad laws of Teh Intertubez, the meme will never die, just become more obscure and circular.
Later.... hombres...
As a young adult, I am looking hopefuly into the future, NOT!
This isn't even Kool-Aid, these growth assumptions are based on an IV drip of Everclear.
I'll point out that there doesn't have to be any real growth assumptions in those numbers as they are using the US$ as the standard of measure.
I wonder though, will Obamacare cover an IV drip of Everclear?
That's the ONLY thing it covers.
NotApplicable,
Touche'. I say we usher back the term "Not Worth a Greenback."
Greenback Dollar!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WLuqvAkb3tU
Don't give a damn about no green back'in dollar-
http://sniff.numachi.com/pages/tiGRENDOLR.html
Of course, if everyone believed this they would sell bonds and move into equities, sending interest rates up and ending growth which would tank equities...ergo,
Equities will remain a 'great value' for exactly as long as no one buys the market.
As for China, I thought we had all agreed that we will only ever possibly find out what really happens there based on satellite images of the burning cities....
Brilliant.
HEY FUCKERS! Yeah you ... read this guy Jim-n-MN, he's on it.
Do we get satalite images of Chinese Central Bankers? Hey where is that guy? Hey guy, where are you?
Time To Prank Call Zhou Xiaochuan:http://www.zerohedge.com/article/time-prank-call-zhou-xiaochuan
We do not. At least not unless you pay-per-view. $60 gets you two nights of sham trials and one theatrical suicide of your choice from a list of over 50! Sign up today.
satellite (n): communications relay & spying station that orbits the earth.
From Apple TV off course!!
betamax sales
"We got a winner! We got a winner!" Said Steve Jobs as he unveiled his new line of ipoduhs and iTV. He brashly walked the stage and captivated the audience with his doo-dahs and go-gidgets.
After the convention was over and the bright lights turned off, Jobs sat in his back room on the telephone. "I am the greatest innovator of all time!" He had apparently concluded this some time before. It was not quite clear if he was referring to his alarming opportunism, or his quirky nature.
hey J O E!
apple sucks, bitchez.
no really, can you imagine a delete key going out on a $3,000. computer? just g o n e†
Use the backspace key...until you can't.
right.
--kathy, really, that was a vote of confidence in you. Y O U C A N D O I T !
-- Ned
free Viagra Now! Before it tips over !
So in other words he's saying that we should invest in gold and silver.
I honestly didn't think that PM's would be THE investment for more than a decade. But now I'm not so sure. PM's might be THE investment for at least two decades.
"Our lives improve only when we take chances - and the first and most difficult risk we can take is to be honest with ourselves."
Walter Anderson
.
...moved.
My prediction:
We are 75% into the make believe market since the beginning of 08. That gives us say 33 months or so.
If 33 month span is 75% of the fairy tale, 25% would be 11 months.
Therefore, July of 2011 is your crash date. Which means that the 2012 Mayan prediction may be inconsequential.
I agree with your pick date.
Anyone else over/under? If so, on what basis? This is a serious question. It seems like most everyone with a model keeps coming up with Q2/Q3 for TEOTWAWKI. I find that fascinating.
well, there's one certainty about TEOTWAWKI - it's always in the future, and shrugs off predictions of when it will occur 100% of the time.
It's in the future only until it's in your grill. Come on, run with me here. Is it the wisdom of crowds, or old fashioned herd mentality? Q2/Q3 and the wheels totally come off: Truth or Fancy?
[quote]
When Black Friday comes
I'll stand down by the door
And catch the grey men when they
Dive from the fourteenth floor
When Black Friday comes
I'll collect everything I'm owed
And before my friends find out
I'll be on the road
When Black Friday falls you know it's got to be
Don't let it fall on me
[/quote] -- Steely Dan
Take a look at the following graph. Says 10-15% drop on 10/20/10, then rally, then big crash 1st quater 2011.
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2010/8/24_Robin_Griffiths_-_Chart_of_a_Market_Collapse.html
Actually, that looked more like Q2/Q3 for "the wheels totally coming off", it being a prolonged event and not an inflection point. So, I'd put that in the same camp as the parent post to mine.
Do you have a link to graphs showing his predictions up to now?
I'd like to see his predictive capabilities.
Got my gold, you got yours?
No, I have no prior charts.
But his resume and interview may provide further detail:
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2010/8/14_Robin_Griffiths.html
I like the Under, but just slightly..I like End of May/ 1st of June in 2011...Silver should be depleted enough by then to light the torch for the opening ceremonies...
My Labrador turns 12 in oktober 2011... coincidence? I THINK NOT!!
12 in the 10th month on the 11th year after the millennium, YOU SEE!!
And october is halloween month, SO DOUBLE WHAMMY!!
It's gone be bad... I just feel it...
October ... okay that's one for "under"
thx
"Therefore, July of 2011 is your crash date."
Coincide with 4th of July. We can celebrate with hot dogs, apple pie and fireworks. I'll bring the chevy.
Edit: We will celebrate with poo poo platter, kung pao chicken and synchronized flag waving ceremony. I'll be driving the Hummer.
you mean the Geely
Hard1 melike.
Which do you prefer - "diamond cutter" or "blue steel"
crotch cowboy
damn, what one doesn't know is amazing.
Oh, then you want to ride the baloney pony.
n o baloney, please
or pickles†
The mayans didn't predict 2012, they just ran out of paper....or in their case stone to carve
the Mayans maintained more than one calendar - the calendar supposedly predicting the end is called the Long Count - the Mayans got the Long Count calendar from the Toltecs
This Mayan funerary urn represents the solar god Kinich Ahau
http://pottery.about.com/od/glazesurfaces/ig/Mesoamerican-Pottery/Mayan-...
http://pottery.about.com/od/glazesurfaces/ig/Mesoamerican-Pottery/Mayan-...
thanks bronzie. WOWweeWOW.
all is well, all is well, we can go home now
It matters not what stocks do if you are going to debase the currency unless you are going to accept that outcome. My bet is that future generations are and will be more inclilne to move to the country, environment, that will be the best creator of wealth. The younger generation is not as US centric as the older generations and it is exactly that generation that the US government is trying to fool, trick, steal from to cover their ponzi wealth extraction machine. My bet is that this is not going to end well and certainly not going to end better than had the government done their job properly in the past.
Jim O'neil meet Mr. James Grant.
Japan could get away with their Keynsian policies becase
- their debth was bought localy
- they have strong exports
- the grown in China and the 'growth' in the USA (debt driven)
If every1 gets on the same side of the boat(Japan, USA, Europe) this is gonna be short and ugly and if we're lucky won't have to wait 20 years for a total meltdown, once the debt starts to grow expotentialy (as it already is)
"debth"
Debt + death. Apropos.
It is bad. We know that. How bad? We know that too. It is based on the fact that the Fed fixes prices, taxes labor (unconstitutionally), and forces the country to be pigeonholed as a "consumer" nation, when we are in fact a Nation by any other name.
Bad as in like you order a Chivas and get a J&B instead. That bad...
Cross-the-streams type of 'bad'.
let's hope the employment numbers are terrible , further qe's and debasement of the currency a sure way to prosperity
Abby Joseph O'Neill ....
Does anyone know what time American idol comes on in Cincinnati?
That's so 2008!
My wife forces me to watch "So you think you can dance"
SOMEBODY PLEASE SHOOT ME FOR THE LOVE OF GOD!!!!!!!!
how do you let your wife force you to do anything against your free will?
Mrs. Rainman uses the old IRS trick.....withholding.
lol - I'm like popeye around my house, big forearms.
nice guns, spinach weighs a lot.
~ olive oil
My diagnosis: testicular atrophy.
Two spanks a day keeps the doctor away. kathy, would you like to help me pull taffy?;-)
depends, get it VI.
"Yet even O'Neill, in his permabullish element, finally agrees that his entire forecast is based on one and only variable coming true- the Fed's ongoing debasement of the dollar: "Over the past couple of months, as evidence has accumulated that the US economy is slowing once again, US financial conditions have not tightened. Indeed, as a result of the aggressive policies of the Federal Reserve, conditions have remained very easy. In order for our more positive underlying views of the world to bear fruit, it is important that this situation persists."
So, the head of Global Economics at Goldman Sachs is claiming that the only remedy that can possibly keep the world afloat is more QE. Hmmm. Sounds like continued QE is assured. No way Benny and Timmy ignore their marching orders from their Monetary Zionist Masters.
It Has Been Foretold.
Not only that, but you have to plant the seeds of acceptance in people a long time before you intend to move. The purpose of propaganda is to create the future you desire by encouraging people to see your prepared future as pre-ordained.
hey, Turd. if you want to rant the "Goldman Sachs is evil" narrative that's fine; there's no law against populist ignorance. But to layer on the "Goldman Sachs = Jew firm = Zionist" narrative just makes you a racist trailer-dweller. And while there's no law against being that, either, there are web sites that cater to anti-semitic morons that might be better suited for you.
Would you lighten up, please?
That comment is made in jest. It seems that anytime anyone overtly supports Israel in the media, they are immediately called on the carpet for "doing the work of their Zionist Masters". As if there are "zionist masters". Fuck, why can't anyone take a joke around here?
Now, onto your bigoted comment. So, anyone who questions whether GS is "evil" is an "ignorant, populist trailer-dweller". Very nice. Maybe you're the one that needs to frequent moronic websites more often.
Bigot! Now you dragged in Mormonic websites! What do you have against Mormons, huh? You anti-God pink-o ...
oh, wait ....
"Never Mind!"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V3FnpaWQJO0
Never fear Turd the Zio-shills never sleep lol
LOL
I don't see anything in there about Judaism.
you devil you, you just don't see with sufficiently a discerning eye. But he does, and that is enough for us all. - Ned
Sounds like Chemba needs a nap as well.
How is the Mach 5 running these days?
Study the history of European central banking then get back to us.
OMFG! That is hilarious.
GS is benevolent and it is populist 'ignorance' (and jealousy) that blinds them to this obvious fact??? Is that what you're trying to say?
rose colored Kool-Aid=liquidity for the squid's debt collection (counterparty) enterprise star-ship
collection like a fine wine-not to be hurried but carefully nurtured
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/rogoff72/English
Why America isn't working by Mr Rogoff..
"cause there isn't a magic bullet", ...yeah, finally.
You know, I hate to be parochial and America-centric about this, but I find little to cheer about in a forecast that has China, a communist, totalitarian state, surpassing the US of A the beacon of democracy to the world, or at least what is supposed to be (and once may have been) an example of free markets and a freer people, by 2019 or whatever nonsense this guy is spouting.
How idiots like this even have jobs is beyond me - really. and this helps us - how? By all of our exports to China? So we'll trade places, they'll be the consumers and we'll be the lowly paid assembly line workers making doodads and other bullshit for sale in China? Is this guy nuts?
Jeez, you don't see how it works.
THERE IS MONEY TO BE MADE!
What where you saying about totalitarian states? I didn't hear you over the sound of MONEY BEING MADE.
MAD MONEY ALL OVER THE PLACE. End of democracy? That sounds serious hold that thought, I think you are onto something, I just have to close this trade so I CAN MAKE INSANE MONEY.
your point being....
The point being, nations don't matter. Democracies don't matter. Just so long as there is a money flow to skim, the bastardz at the top of the ponzi scam will get theirs.
Dr. Seuss was down with this shit when he told us the story of the sneetches.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sh1qWZWNGGE
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Sneetches_and_Other_Stories#.22The_Sneetches.22
Nations matter very much. You're presently living in the nation that has the maximum bullshit impact on you. People don't like it when foreigners tell them what is wrong with their country and it usually doesn't happen a whole lot because it's like cheating, getting help from a master who's already overcome your particular countries bullshit.
This is why every1 gets it wrong all the time, every1 has only 1 perspective(their country, their neighbourhood, their religion, their philosophy), every1 is like a broken clock it's only right 2x a day, because it never changes
Go out of your box !
http://www.sovereignman.com/expat/reasons-to-be-optimistic/
A blog I like to read to give me a bigger perspective
In expressing his optimism he goes on to mention every other country in the world.
The lack of U. S. "facts" is worth noting.
LOL @ Beacon of democracy
Roubini Global Economics to "me" .... 3:01 AM (11 hours ago)
Greetings from RGE! - excerpt
"Given political and fiscal constraints and banks' unwillingness to lend, we remain doubtful of the potential for policy to prevent a double dip. Even a new round of monetary and quantitative easing can provide limited stimulus. The real issue facing the U.S. is the need for balance sheet deleveraging and repair, and that will be a multi-year process.The U.S. must brace itself for a long period of below-potential growth."
Time to say good-bye.
"Con te partirò (Time to say goodbye)
music by F.Sartori, words by L.Quarantotto 1995"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ohXI3po8hK0
Phuck Rubini and all other Black Swans out there, go and make your own luck, stop listening to people who tell you that you can't.
Wall Street has been "making their own luck" for about 30 years, unbroken. They got theirs, the rest of us don't, and no "luck" was involved.
If it was just luck, that would be fine. A lottery, you pay to play. But it's not luck at all. It's influence. That's where the black swan flies in and craps all over your well-oiled money making machine. The black swan is not about luck nor the lack of it, it is about the limits of influence in a world of actual unforeseen consequences.
Indeed...this casino is rigged.
Wow Hall,
The last time my mom was asked to play this song was by my dad to be played at his funeral - he died shortly thereafter. Very fitting
Jim needs a nap.
The kind that includes dirt.
yikes!
Oh. Kay. I will remember that one.
From Ayn Rand:
And...
OK I didn't read the details (yet)
Back of the envelope math: the Fed could easily generate 3 trillion of inflation driven GDP growth over the next 10 years, without much effort.
US will have more MONEY! but fewer jobs and worse lifestlye.
GDP bitches!
Fewer jobs than today would be the end. There would be no United States of America at 30% unemployment. Burning cities certainly, and we would still be drawn on the map, but a trip across the country would demonstrate that there was no longer a country.
At that point I would expect unmanaged deflation into wide spread poverty, flight of capital, an actual national output perhaps 20% of today. Meaning, neolithic. BB could print enough money to paper the walls of every hovel in America with $100 bills, to absolutely no effect at all.
That probably wasn't on the back of your envelope, right?
10 years? shoot, they could do that overnight.
"Back of the envelope math: the Fed could easily generate 3 trillion of inflation driven GDP growth over the next 10 years, without much effort."
Leo's theorem in a nutshell.
Updated S&P500 charts:
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
Why listen to these 'experts' who never got anything right before, yet keep putting out their analysis of the future? I guess use them as contrarian indicators at most.
All you gold bugs will be left smelling your own taint as equities explode higher and gold plunges. The kool aid is at zerohedge.com. Suckers!
"All you gold bugs will be left smelling your own taint as equities explode higher and gold plunges. The kool aid is at zerohedge.com. Suckers!"
by Thunder Domeon Mon, 08/30/2010 - 17:49
#554067
"Only shop in primo real estate areas. Low ball every seller and you will be fine. Great homes are out there. Just put a house under contract in blue chip neighborhood that I can rent for more than cost of carry. Get out your cocktail napkins and do the math dipshits."
This guy is an expert on housing and gold. Hey, Thunder Dome, you never told me where that "Primo" area you bought in was?
yes, Thunder Dome, I also asked where these primo areas are - I even bowed down to your awesomeness before asking to be enlightened
The area you wished you lived in is the 'primo' neighborhood. I did my due diligence and found a house via short sale that will cost the same as renting in my current neighborhood. And the place is 'bad ass'.
If one buys intelligently now, another 20% drop is not going to be that big a deal. Can't say carte blanche that all real estate is garbage.
As for equities, lowest they will go is 940 on SP. Calls for Dow 6000 are pure gold bug ignorance.
"another 20% drop is not going to be a big deal"
Okay, you've now established your bona fides. You don't work anywhere near Wall Street. I'm guessing southern California. You have that cocky attitude combined with an incredible lack of understanding. You kind of sound like that Mad Hedge Fund Dude. I was going to suggest that a village somewhere is missing its idiot, but they're happy, so why wreck a good thing. Lucky us.
"The area you wished you lived in is the 'primo' neighborhood."
You behave as a child so I am a little reluctant to respond, but, you are clearly a greenhorn when it comes to Real Estate. Your use of RE related buzzwords are the giveaway. When you have personally (read: your reo) bought and sold in excess of 50 units (60% multifamily) in the span of a 5 year period, give me a call, junior.
Not trying to brag btw - there are much bigger players doing much bigger numbers out there. It's just that 25 years in RE has me vehemently turned off to bullshit artists and pretenders.
Johnny you fucktard.
If that was johnny, well, he got me. dammit!
Protect yourself. He'll smell your taint.
Oh, he is in for a treat.
Ya'll are nasty funny.
Behold, a new character in the ZH panoply: THUNDER DUMB, the double dip.
JMHO ... The world is fine. It is the financial industry and governments that are broken. The problem is that we are now all working this out with a couple of lead weights attached to our legs.
Reminds me of the old joke, and the punchline is "Hit the ball and drag Al. Hit the ball and drag Al"
Damn, dude - I suppose I should have read your comment before I snarked below!
Ah, the hubris.
"The World is down, but far from out"
Uh, Jimbo? The World will be fine, just fine, with or without us - spinning as it will through the inky black void until such time as our Sun gives up the ghost.
Our economies? Not so much - especially if we keep listening to the likes of you.
docj wrote: on Wed, 09/01/2010 - 16:53#558392
Ah, the hubris.
"The World is down, but far from out"
Stephen King
"... there are other worlds than these. ..."
Have you noticed that now Goldman has the most bullish and bearish guys on the street, just like Merrill did on the 90's/early00...At least one of them will be right.
Churn-side love butter.
Staggeringly insane drivel.....
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