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Will Adverse Regulatory Changes Cause Further Deterioration In Shadow Banking And Force The Fed's QE Hand Again?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Confused by the recent dramatic moves in General Collateral repo rates? Carry trade killing FDIC assessments got you down (and copycatting other blogs)? Still anguished by relentless end of quarter window dressing even as primary dealers reduce leverage to post crisis lows? Surprised by the ongoing deterioration in near term shadow banking despite the so-called improvement? Stunned by how the Fed has seemingly lost control of the near end even as the announcement of implicit tightening could be a few shorts days away? Then the following presentation from Barclay's Joseph Abate on the regulatory changes in money markets, and their broad consequences for funding markets is a must read for anyone concerned by the very peculiar recent goings on in shadow banking.

The bottom line is that as so often happens, regulatory intervention in what many forget is probably the biggest short-term funding market (now that LIEBOR (sic) is being investigated for mass criminal collusion, which is not news to anyone who followed unsecured funding during the great financial crisis) may end up having very dramatic events on actual funding availability.

While not nearly as serious as the "Ice-Nine" of money market that started in the week after Lehman's failure, it is more than obvious that a slow withdrawal of liquidity from the shadow banking system is again in progress. And as Zero Hedge readers know too well by now, it is precisely the critical shadow banking system with its $16 trillion in assets, that is by far the biggest determinant of whether or not the Fed will need to continue providing the liquidity needed to fund the shadow banking collapse offset. Read: conducting QEx.

For much more, we urge everyone to read the following presentation which summarizes the recent adverse developments in shadow banking which as much as anything else, may force the Fed's hand to continue with ongoing market leverage interventions.

Abate April 20

 

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Sat, 04/23/2011 - 15:32 | 1199527 Popo
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 "If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered" - Thomas Jefferson

^^ (Please note the order of operations)

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 15:51 | 1199568 Michael
Michael's picture

I'm lucky. I use one gallon of gas a day to get to and from work each day. My 2DR 4wd Blazer SUV gets 14 MPG. It coasts me $4 per day and $20 per week. As a machinist with 20 years experience, my new job only pays me $10/hr, I know pity full,  so I have to work about 1/2 hour a day just to pay for the gas, insurance, and upkeep.

I'm enjoying the American nightmare, how about you?

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 15:53 | 1199573 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Emigrate to Gaza...and enjoy Israeli charity...It's cheaper, but dirtier.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 16:42 | 1199659 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

where are you falak?

Gaza sounds like a tough place.

I would be taking israeli charity and working as a smuggler.

Sun, 04/24/2011 - 01:35 | 1200360 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

This lady in south america swan dived 23 stories out a window and hit a taxi cab and survived. That's just fucking mean.

Sun, 04/24/2011 - 07:40 | 1200494 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Just my point : Mike loves to rant about ethnic stuff. One of his hobby horses. But in comparison to being US citizen, even taking into account the current shitty downturn which will get undoubtedly worse,  there are many tougher places in the world. Sometimes we forget that. I live mostly in EU countries.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 16:17 | 1199607 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Glass half full = you have a job though.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 16:37 | 1199652 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

the sherpa say he who has enough is successful.

Grow your own.  Find a congenial supportive social group.

don't take shit too seriously. and hang out with others who

think most material pursuits are just a distraction from life.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 17:05 | 1199690 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

I can't tell if youre implying i should do these above things or whether these are merely musings.

Sun, 04/24/2011 - 10:36 | 1200731 augie
augie's picture

 That is a recipe for a fulfilled life, what does the form matter to the message conveyed?

 

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 16:29 | 1199625 topcallingtroll
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where do you live because I have a few ideas for interesting products, legal, for now.  I don't like working with sheeple.

Sun, 04/24/2011 - 08:44 | 1200560 css1971
css1971's picture

Michael. You live 7 miles from work... Bicycle (30 mins). And/or Scooter.

I live in Berlin, so the American nightmare is being watched with fascination and horror from afar. When America sneezes, the world catches a cold.

I live ~35km from work. About 20 miles and take the train. It costs me about €100 per month, which is then further subsidised by the government, I pay about €70 per month.

If you earn more money, you pay tax on it. And in the German case, earning (45%) and then spending money (20%) works out to about a 65% tax rate. If you save money it goes straight to your bottom line. 80% benefit when spent on other stuff.

 

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 16:38 | 1199658 MisterAmbassador
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Check out my picture.  DANGER ZONE!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ODYfkPxdy8c

 

Did you get that quote from me?  'Tis a good quote; 'tis a very good quote, indeed.  We were warned.

Now, grill me a cheese.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 19:53 | 1200009 bigelkhorn
bigelkhorn's picture

Since I was born in america, it saddens me to see what is happening here. Almost no one is awake! When they do it will be too late I think! *cries*

The dollar looks horrible here. Those FFT guys have been crushing the market latetly. I am a VIP member and love their technical analysis, but they just uploaded a FREE video of what they think is going to happen in the next few weeks to the S&P 500. Its well worth a watch! ==> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lnt5HuGGcKw

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 22:41 | 1200229 Doña K
Doña K's picture

Sorry, only Bennie and his cohorts know where the market is going.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 03:47 | 1202569 tomster0126
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Agreed...totally up to what these buffoons decide, unfortunately.  what are your thoughts on silver in the next few years though as far as holding or selling?

 

www.forecastfortomorrow.com

Sun, 04/24/2011 - 22:03 | 1202119 Goolie
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I'm about halfway through John Mauldin's latest book, Endgame, and he uses the above quote as well.  But here I googled the quote and found this:

http://www.snopes.com/quotes/jefferson/banks.asp

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 15:31 | 1199528 Timmay
Timmay's picture

Joe 6 pack is about to become Joe 3 pack....

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 16:03 | 1199580 Atomizer
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However, buying a Joe 3 pack is going to cost Joe 12 pack price. Joe 6 pack has been discontinued due to financial banking unpopularity.

I wonder if Joe 3 pack will tie the puppets to a solar panel, a wind mill wing or from behind a Chevy Volt/Cruze with a NASCAR steering wheel option.

Time is always a good indicator in when the peasants revolt. Hmmmmm. EU, PIIGS, UK, Middle East. Me thinks it won't be very long.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 16:28 | 1199626 topcallingtroll
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In Venezuela he is still jose sixpack, but Polar beer (my favorite) comes in teeny little cans.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 22:52 | 1200244 Doña K
Doña K's picture

Gasoline, bread and liquor is subsidized heavily in Venezuela.

New proposed law, to be voted on, in your house must live 2 people per bedroom. Then, you either buy a one bedroom house, or you must take in relatives or others to comply.

 

Sun, 04/24/2011 - 08:38 | 1200554 FreeMoney Bernie
FreeMoney Bernie's picture

at the present rate of decline they will not need a law for the bedroom rule.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 15:36 | 1199535 plocequ1
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The answer is yes. 

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 16:30 | 1199629 topcallingtroll
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I love you ploc

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 15:39 | 1199543 Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

Yes, it will. But the fact is the Fed will have to continue QE no matter what. They don't have a choice, unless they want the whole house of cards to come down immediately (which it will eventually anyway). They may not annouce that they are doing QE3, but regardless it will take place, only under a different name, or no name at all, secretly.

 

http://silverliberationarmy.blogspot.com/

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 22:54 | 1200248 Doña K
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I am not sure that they will go the secret route as Ben's idea is to create high expectations of inflation (not actual rampant inflation). He may go the secret route however, if the polticians get a lot of heat from the people.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 15:48 | 1199561 XenoFrog
Sat, 04/23/2011 - 15:57 | 1199577 TheGreatPonzi
TheGreatPonzi's picture

Given that there was absolutely no mean of physical recording at his time, nobody can say with certainty if he said it or not, just like nobody can confirm if Plato believed in the Atlantid. 

But given that most State men at this time were indeed very wary of banks (this includes Napoleon I and III), I'd tend to believe more those "nerdy libertarians" who invent quotes than the academia and the Federal Reserve. 

The first have a pretty good track record ; the second are a "den of thieves", to paraphrase another famous President. And I'm not even talking about Wilson. 

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 16:35 | 1199636 topcallingtroll
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I would like to see the original source of the rothschild comment too.  You know, the one about he cares not who runs the country if he controls the money supply.  It is just as likely to be something made up by his enemies.

Also the quote from Bankers Monthly in 1924 about the devious 'world plan'  of bankers slowly coming to fruition.  I have my doubts about unreferenced quotes.  I wanna see a copy of bankers monthly

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 18:52 | 1199888 slewie the pi-rat
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well, tct, you are certainly in the right place, today!

johnny silverbear has the original source material and you can see it online at his site.  apparently, the primary source provenance is thru the romanoffs.  christie's provides the auction clues.  malcolm forbes had it for years, along with the eggs, but johnny silverbear offered forbes a giant silver egg as big as the ritz and the deal went down.

i often introduce RD Bradshaw as The World's Greatest Conspiracy Theorist, b/c, well, he is!  here's his weekly rant via goldSeek:  The Goldsmiths, Part CXC

he has background stuff galore and archival stuff going back to the crusades.  just a few weeks ago, he was treating readers to the ancient bankster cabal which arose out of mesopotamia and so on, and backed everything up with citations to josephus and the encyclopedia judaica.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 16:33 | 1199639 Harbourcity
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+1  

 

Sun, 04/24/2011 - 02:27 | 1200389 el Gallinazo
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The primary basis to the Jefferson quote being bogus is that the words ªinflationª and "deflation" were not used in a monetary sense in his lifetime, so the quote is anachronistic. Glad he didn't warn us about the the bankstas stealing our cell phones.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 16:51 | 1199668 Atomizer
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It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.
-Henry Ford
Sat, 04/23/2011 - 18:01 | 1199788 citta vritti
citta vritti's picture

Actually, fwiw, some of it is, some of it isn’t:

http://www.monticello.org/site/jefferson/private-banks-quotation

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 15:50 | 1199570 Sudden Debt
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The ECB issued a warning this weekend that if Greece would default and apply a haircut, any haircut, it will cause another banking crisis bigger than the one we had.

Europe will print money. I'm pretty sure they will.

 

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 16:15 | 1199601 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

They have to. And id be pretty surprised if, indirectly at least, the ECB hasn't yet. Maybe Trichet is more subtle than the Bernank, but believe me the printing presses have to go off.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 16:33 | 1199633 holdbuysell
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Do you have a link to the warning? Thanks.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 16:34 | 1199643 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

They could not have said that.  That means the crisis is upon us now and they do not know what to do.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 16:37 | 1199646 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

belgium dude let us know where you heard that.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 17:20 | 1199719 Jean Lazard de ...
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he probably heard that at "De Tijd" ( The Times in English) the only financial paper in dutchspeaking Belgium www.tijd.be

 

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 22:29 | 1200122 Cyrano de Bivouac
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No, he probably heard about it from Tijd Ferguson's blog-"All Along the Watchtijder".

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 16:31 | 1199630 WineSorbet
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"Ice Nine"

 

+100000 for using a Cat's Cradle reference.  It's references like these that make ZH the best written site on the web!

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 16:35 | 1199648 cowdiddly
cowdiddly's picture

Our govt IS like a bunch of fasinated children playing with string.

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 18:29 | 1199752 slewie the pi-rat
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tyler:   "The bottom line is that as so often happens, regulatory intervention in what many forget is probably the biggest short-term funding market (now that LIEBOR (sic) is being investigated for mass criminal collusion, which is not news to anyone who followed unsecured funding during the great financial crisis) may end up having very dramatic events on actual funding availability."

this Barclay's report addresses this on p 21.  all kindsa stuff about bank accounts and money market funds and so on, then the same old same old:  commercial paper. 

because of "accounting changes" certain short-term financingz changed.  folks who usta lend to corporate clients for their "commercial paper" now said "no thanks;  not today."  and in europe, the banks did not trust each other for, like, a coupla years, which did not help the "interbank overnight rate" much.  you know!  counterparty risk stuff. 

what happened was the financial giants went broke in the casino when a bubble they were blowing blew up in their faces.  making story short, one of the fixes was to move the goal posts on the balance sheets:  no longer mark to market.  new accounting rules apply.  so, the zombies are now "legit" in that assets are not decimated, liabilities are not "blown up outa proportion" and net worth?  well, well...it's positive, now!  so, off they went to sell stock, borrow money, and make up stories about mortgage and loan documents. 

what the old farts usta call the "acid test ratio" even b4 they started takin acid (current assets divided by current liabilities) was no longer a reliable yard marker.  the assholes had actually moved the fuking goalposts, and, of course, the short-term credit money/CP market money went into immediate hiding.  mrs. watanabe is no fool! 

now, the FED has jacked the liquidity to such levels that you can't give money away, much less charge anybody for it! well, paper money, ok?

do you know who your counterparty is, today?

Sun, 04/24/2011 - 04:17 | 1200424 Iam_Silverman
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"this Barclay's report addresses this on p 21.  all kindsa stuff about bank accounts and money market funds and so on, then the same old same old:  commercial paper. "

Actually, I think that the most important monetary meme was captured in slide number 19 of 25!  The average person is getting tired of playing in the money markets, and has decided to take the safe bet and put their money in a plain old savings account - where it is FDIC insured, unlike the money markets (considering the return is almost identical).  And, that in itself creates a problem for the banks - more deposits into insured accounts drives up their insurance premiums, and lowering their bottom line.  What a conundrum.

 

Overall, I think that what is most interesting is what was left unsaid.  With the dirty little secret of banks using repos and other tricks for "window dressing" near quarters end being outed, how are they ever going to "make a profit" in time for the announcements?  You can't keep lowering your loan loss reserves forever.  I think that the TBTF banks status as PD's will become even more important in washing (as in hiding) liquidity injections from the FRB to make it look like your equity "investments" in the FINS sector is stable and safe.

 

But, what do I know?

Sun, 04/24/2011 - 10:35 | 1200727 slewie the pi-rat
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what does anyone know abt the banksters till later?  i must say i son't know all the "definitions" of terms involved for the diff categories, which prob also change now & then, too.  doug noland's 4.22 report (Paste): 

M2 (narrow) "money" supply increased $5.7bn to a record $8.928 TN.  "Narrow money" has expanded at a 3.7% pace y-t-d and 5.2% over the past year.  For the week, Currency increased $3.8bn.  Demand and Checkable Deposits dropped $23.7bn, while Savings Deposits jumped $33.8bn.  Small Denominated Deposits declined $2.2bn.  Retail Money Funds fell $6.0bn.  

Total Money Fund assets dropped $36.2bn last week to $2.710 TN.  Money Fund assets were down $100bn y-t-d, with a decline of $168bn over the past year, or 5.8%. 

Total Commercial Paper outstanding declined $800 million to $1.098 Trillion.  CP was up $129bn y-t-d, or 36% annualized, and $23bn from a year ago (2.1%).   (End Paste)

yes, the MMF's lost retail investors.  remember when one or 2 of the funds "broke the buck"?  NAV went below $1, prob over lehman, in the Fall of '08.  this old FT coverage, [FT Alphaville » How low rates break the buck], sez (Paste):  In other words, at a target rate of 50bp (and an effective rate potentially lower) money market funds could be in very real danger of dipping below their $1 net asset value — breaking the buck. That would have major implications for the shadow banking system.

Recall for instance, the bleak month of September, when Reserve Primary’s buck-breaking (the second MMF to ever do so), started a run on commercial paper – a sector which is only just beginning to show signs of recovery – and only after the US bought $146bn of it.

Of course, the impact of an MMF breaking the buck would now be significantly less than before. (End Paste)

so, these are all connected like a hydraulic system.  the "engineers" keep fuking w/ the port sizes, valves, guarantees and cylinder relationships, and then the unintended consequeces start.  the damned "system" is now dialed in for ZIRP and 8% inflation.  as the article tyler posted keeps saying, the big money is "flight prone" too! 

so, the zombies careen thru our lives while nanny-staters continue being brainwashed that the "engineers" can fix everything and make everything aaallll better, forever.  meanwhile, every dick, jane, li, kim, pedro, mogambo & omar on the planet is stuck w/ fiat banksters, debt bubbles everywhere, and a need to eat and have underpants, too. 

and the propaganda continues, unabated.  the media continues to paint all things with false light, as this, today:  US default could be disastrous choice for economy

unforunately for them, more and more people are awakening on our little orb, each day, rubbing their eyes, and scratching their crotches, and saying:  "We don't need this shit, any more!  Give us some stable do-re-mi and about 2/3 of you assholes can just clock out, forever, go home, and stop plaguing humanity!  We'll be ok.  Trust us!"

Sun, 04/24/2011 - 10:50 | 1200750 augie
augie's picture

wait, so are you saying we can eat underpants?

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 19:40 | 1199982 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Money funds have 45% exposure to European banks...Looks like we are going to find out what "insuring everything" means in the real world...

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 20:27 | 1200069 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

The more this looks and smells like 2008, the more this looks like it will be far worse than 2008. Thanks for that report Tyler, hadn't seen that one.

Sun, 04/24/2011 - 10:05 | 1200678 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

In 2008, the US & the USD were the beneficiaries of a flight to perceived relative safety. 

"History does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme"  since attributed & mis-credited quotes seem de rigueur for the thread

Sat, 04/23/2011 - 23:44 | 1200290 Catullus
Catullus's picture

Someone fucking call a Whah-bulance. "Wha, investors are increasing putting money in savings accounts instead of money market accounts (read: dark pools of liquidity with no backing from the FDIC)! It could be a whole 15 bps impact!"  Oh no, Reg G rollback will pay interest on corporate accounts, further making these money market accounts worthless pieces of bullshit. 

And are we supposed to believe that Fed "stress testing" means anything?

I put this more on the shadow banking system game is dead vs. a decapitalization. There's no real reason to be a money market fund anymore unless these guys are actually going to pay a high enough interest rate for the lack of FDIC permanent bailout protection.  And even if the PWG creates an "FDIC for MMF", too late, the money will be stuck in retail and corporate accounts.  Same problem; MMF need to pay more interest.

Sun, 04/24/2011 - 04:20 | 1200427 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"Same problem; MMF need to pay more interest."

And at a rate high enough to offset the implied risk of not being FDIC/FSLIC/NCUA insured.

I see that you keyed in on slide 19/25 too.

Sun, 04/24/2011 - 07:15 | 1200472 fallst
fallst's picture

So many different ways to break their economic plaything here, CDS, CDO squareds, buying mortgage shit shovelers for RICO fraud pipeline,  backdoor shorting of clients, a bald MERS assumption of our notaries, lobbyist staffing of our reform writing "representatives" offices. Now arbitraging all future gas profits, as much as 50%, into their funnels.

Anyways, its quite easy to fix.

Just repeal, undo, and unglue, ourselves, from both "Modernization" Acts created by Sen. Phil Gramm-TX, in 1999 and 2000. That's when all this new mischief started!!!

The Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000, and the Financial Services Modernization Act (aka Gramm-Leech-Bliley Act) of 1999. Currently Allows for obscene derivative manipulation of energy markets (Enron Loophole). Will stop the absurd CDS 600 Trillion notional...Restores the Glass-Stegall...

I will keep posting this until it sinks in.

Both Gramm Modernization's, are Acts of Financial Terrorism that must be undone. And Yes, Yet Again, the world will follow.

Sun, 04/24/2011 - 08:31 | 1200535 Chuck Walla
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Move along...

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!