Will The Comcast Internet Toll Test The Netflix Business Model?

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Tue, 11/30/2010 - 15:42 | 765221 Spalding_Smailes
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Pets.com

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 15:48 | 765253 Mr Lennon Hendrix
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pets.com did not replace pet stores.  Netflix bankrupted Blockbuster/Hollywood video.  Poor example.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 15:59 | 765277 Spalding_Smailes
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Built on dreams in the market .... Everything is going digital/ in the clouds.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 16:02 | 765309 Mr Lennon Hendrix
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No way!  Everyone needs entertainment, and netflix > blockbuster.

I will not say it should have the price it does now based on earnings and whatnot, but I could give a rats ass about dollar denominated value.  netflix is one of the only companies that will make it out alive.  and a small disclaimer, I own no shares in netflix, nor have I ever.  Just sayin'.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 18:08 | 765917 aerojet
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Actually, what Americans could use is a lot less vapid entertainment and a lot more serious study, or at least turning off the tv, game consoles, and streaming media and cracking a book instead.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 23:57 | 766882 trav7777
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it's not an issue of whether people need entertainment, it's a matter of NFLX not controlling the infrastructure and these monopoly organizations like Verizon and Comcast owning the last mile of the internet.

The best part is how we all chipped in so the ISPs can have monopoly on the wires into our houses, now they get to profit from it.  Municipalities paid via debt and taxes to get these lines laid and now the providers can charge what they feel like.

NFLX has done well; this is a matter of Comcast saying, gee, that's a nice business you've got over there, be a shame if something happened to it.

Comcast wants all its customers to get jacked paying for their overpriced VOD.  Sony has a huge title collection on PSN, it's wack priced too.  Vz's VOD is overpriced as well.  But without the infrastructure, NFLX is subject to getting squeezed by both ends.

Wed, 12/01/2010 - 11:47 | 767855 suckapump
suckapump's picture

+1x10^100

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 16:19 | 765368 idea_hamster
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The real comparitor is Vonage -- good idea, but nothing that the wire-owners can't do themselves.

In the end (at least near me) the cable company offered a "package" of web+TV+VOIP that cost less than just web+TV.  Is that an antitrust tying violation?  Probably, but who's going to fight that?  Nobody.

VG: $12 --> $3  in one year.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 19:16 | 766198 dkny
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VG should go to $3 just for the simple reason that they charge an obscene amount of money. I'm paying almost $30/month on basically no calls.

Perhaps it is time to switch to CallCentric to facilitate that decline.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 15:43 | 765227 MonsterZero
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They own the physical cable, they can ask whatever amount of paper fiat money they want.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 15:59 | 765290 Ripped Chunk
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Hmmmmm. I guess it really is all about political climate?

AT&T    MCI ......recall that little spat having a large effect (eventually erased by "market forces") on telecom.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 15:59 | 765292 Dr. No
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They do and they get it.  My rates just increase last month...

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 16:09 | 765339 MeTarzanUjane
MeTarzanUjane's picture

Exactly. Fuck these cable companies! $70/month for Internet access?!!!

FUCK YOU Cable bitches!

There are enough unemployed peoples to be able to digitize all known channels onto DVD and sell to people out of their trunk at the local Krogers.

Hey, I heard rumors about a Wikileaks IPO? Any truth?

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 16:01 | 765304 tmosley
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I wonder if they will be surprised when they lose all of their internet customers when they refuse to pay Comcast's charge and they find that their customers can't get Netflix.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 19:10 | 766167 ebworthen
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Good point. 

I'm amazed at the early 20 something's using just their smart phones to watch movies.

Even a laptop with wireless is becoming passe to them.

Comcast had better be careful because they have competition from the phone companies big time; Verizon is pushing a celular broadband connection that I've seen several friends adopt in favor of Comcast.

Wed, 12/01/2010 - 00:01 | 766897 trav7777
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the wireless providers are capping GBs now...only the grandfathered "unlimiteds" have anything resembling a decent price point.  And that's subject to just having your plan cancelled, fuck you style.

I used 17GB one month on my unlimited ATT PDA plan and I was concerned that if I continue to roll like that, they will just shut me off and say take your business to verizon or else fork over more cash.  As I am right next to a tower, I get 3G+ exceeding 2Mbps and could stream NFLX via a tethered windoze smartphone

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 16:01 | 765310 hewhohesit8s
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Shortsighted view.  The percieved value is more and more in "the internet", and less and less in the physical medium.  Comcast will drive their customers into the arms of the telcos unless the telcos are stupid enough to charge tool too.  In that case, new entrants will eat both their lunches. 

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 18:09 | 765925 aerojet
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IIRC, Americans paid additional taxes for that cable infrastructure, so don't we fucking own it?

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 19:15 | 766182 ebworthen
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Agree, the monopolies are just sick.

I miss the days of an Antenna on the roof and having to sit through commercials, not paying out the nose to a monopoly AND having to sit through commercials (what crap!).

Cable television is de-evolving to where there are only 13 channels you can watch and you have to be picky at that - just like back in the day of the Antenna and Rabbit Ear's.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 19:22 | 766228 dkny
dkny's picture

Precisely!

It is for that reason that I on principle refuse to pay for TV. I mean, heck, why should I be paying to watch ads. And, as you said, almost nothing to watch anyway: "reality" shows as far as the eye can see.

$70/month? Ha!
I'll stick to the OTA Jerry Springer reruns instead of the latest CSI Unemployment Office Division, thank you very much.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 22:37 | 766666 Doctor sahab
Doctor sahab's picture

I have an antenna in my attic that I've connected to two HDTVs and I get all the local channels for free in HD and surround. You should be able to get a decent reception in most parts of the country.

Wed, 12/01/2010 - 01:21 | 767050 A Nanny Moose
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Commericals were the time to get up and make that Swansons T.V. Dinner.

Cable use to be the end-run around commercials. Now we pay, and still get fucked with the propaganda.

Wed, 12/01/2010 - 00:02 | 766901 trav7777
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yes, we DID pay for that infrastructure.  We used bonds and tax cash to PAY the telcos to lay lines that THEY NOW OWN 100%!  How awsumz is that

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 23:25 | 766786 asteroids
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Bullshit, the end user pays a fee for use of said cable. It's like leasing a car and only being to drive it where the leasing company tells you to drive.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 15:43 | 765228 Jim in MN
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Awwwww.  Easy come, easy go.

Not like it's an important stock for the go-go galz around here...eh?

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 15:44 | 765235 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Old money always wins out. The studios will side with who-ever can get their content to the end user.

Clearly a company like Netflix has no business being valued at where it is and since all these biggies work under the same thumb (not Tom), maybe Netflix is going to get replaced in the Holy Trinity by.....GM? It could happen. Go long GM! Today's tip ;-)

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 16:00 | 765296 Ripped Chunk
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The studios will side with who-ever can get their content to the end user that puts the most money in their pockets

Wed, 12/01/2010 - 00:42 | 766974 Oh regional Indian
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Thanks Ripped, I felt that sentnce was incomplete even as I was writing it.

ORI

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 15:47 | 765248 Critical Path
Critical Path's picture

As of last week I now pay $7.99 for instant unlimited streams (up from $5.99).  I like the service and think its a better deal than some other options that don't include owning a massive library of films.  Not sure where I draw the line on their fees though.  Either way, definitely not good news for cash flow... 

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 15:54 | 765272 Joe Davola
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Unfortunately, many of the movies I'd like to watch aren't available for instant.  There's a whole lotta unwatchable crap that is.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 18:11 | 765939 aerojet
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So...it's just cable tv all over again?  100000 channels and nothing on?  Fuck that. 

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 15:48 | 765256 SheepDog-One
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NFLX FTW!
ok, now junk away.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 15:50 | 765260 Hephasteus
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Does comcast still have customers it hasn't pissed off yet?

I don't believe it.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 16:03 | 765316 Ripped Chunk
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Now they are Xfinity. Such a cool, modern name. All the bad consumer experiences just disappeared! 

Just like when GMAC changed its name to Ally.

See how stupid they think everyone is? Does it piss you off?

 

Wed, 12/01/2010 - 00:06 | 766915 trav7777
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lol...I used to work for Comcast and was responsible for implementing some of these hairbrained ideas.  Don't blame me, blame the marketing idiots.

You want some cool info?  Comcast uses a wholesale plan to provide wireless internet where they put you in a bucket.  They use heuristics to predict how much data you will use and will roll you into a lower bandwidth wholesale plan that is cheaper to THEM but will still charge you for whatever your subscription level is.

So, if you want to fuck Comcast, get a particular data plan, underuse, and then rack that mfer up.  They will pay overages to the end providers like Sprint and Clearwire.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 15:54 | 765271 Lost My Shorts
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Funny, didn't stop Nutflex from being up 3.5% again today like every day.  Maybe the FCC is long.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 19:22 | 766230 shushup
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Right - NFLX was up $7 today and $7 yesterday. Why?

It must be Cramer.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 15:56 | 765275 G. Marx
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Here's what I like to know, in how many jurisdictions was Comcast (or other cable companies) granted a monopoly position as being the only cable provider within a politically geographical area? IMO, any region of the country where Comcast (or other cable companies) have been granted this condition by the local government, then they can go screw themselves. They're nothing more than a utility. Where they have competition they have a right to charge such a fee and I have a right to change my carrier if I so choose.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 17:01 | 765582 waylon153
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+1996

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 15:57 | 765284 Species8472
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The end user should pay the toll!

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 18:22 | 765991 ThisIsBob
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Ultimately end users will.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 19:23 | 766232 shushup
shushup's picture

Since when has an end user ever won?

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 15:59 | 765293 hdunn2
hdunn2's picture

pretty outrageous price movement all things considered. One, the broader market (specifically tech) is down, two, you have this news that, while not certain, could cause serious headaches in the future, and three, the whole crazy valuation is predicated on international expansion; you would think chaos in Europe would put that in some doubt..

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 16:00 | 765297 Hansel
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Netflix isn't forcing its data onto Comcast's network.  Comcast customers are requesting Netflix data.  Comcast customers pay Comcast for access to the internet.  Netflix shouldn't have to pay Comcast too.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 16:02 | 765311 Cone of Uncertainty
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Comcast will get it's pound of flesh from L3, how much L3 eats is anyone's guess.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 16:01 | 765306 Cone of Uncertainty
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Comcast started their own competing site, which sucks.

xfinity.com

Sly move on comcast's part to put the screws to L3 right after they swooped in and inked the Netflix deal.

I bet they split the fee.

Either way, how is Netflix going to pass it on to customers right after a pricing move--they can't.

Long term model (margins) in jeopardy...abort, abort, abort.

 

 

 

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 16:04 | 765307 Lucius Corneliu...
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I see this as an opportunity for Comcast's competitors.  If Comcast cuts out Netflix then I will simply switch to Verizon which happens to be slightly less expensive anyway.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 16:03 | 765314 Cone of Uncertainty
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Telcos will go along with Comcast on this.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 16:06 | 765321 Lucius Corneliu...
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Will they though?  I think it is a perfect marketing opportunity for the Telcos to differentiate their services.

Tue, 11/30/2010 - 16:22 | 765388 Cone of Uncertainty
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That just means already low DSL margins go lower.

Of course, it might make sense for FIOS, but again, someone has to eat the fee here.

 

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