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Will The Finnish Vote Dead End Europe's Bailout Bonanza?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The early Finnish votes are in and it does not look good for Portugal. As Reuters reports, Finland's anti-euro True Finns made huge gains in an election on Sunday, raising the risk of disruption to an EU bailout of Portugal. The right-leaning National Coalition topped the ballot, gaining just over a fifth of all votes. Party leaders will start talks soon on forming a new government. The problem is that as the anti-euro moniker indicates, the True Finns are pretty much hell bent on vetoing the Portugal bailout which means the ongoing annexation of Europe's periphery by Olli Rehn is about to finish (and yes there is a finish-Finnish joke in there somewhere). Per Marketwatch: "Early results Sunday from Finland’s parliamentary elections suggest the anti-EU bailout True Finns party will hold the second-most number of seats and could even be part of a coalition government. Such an outcome may mean the EU’s planned bailout of Portugal is vetoed by Finland, a move that would roil the euro-zone markets. With half the votes counted the True Finns were on 19% support, and on course for 41 seats, tied with the Social Democrats and one seat less than National Coalition Party’s predicted 42-seat haul, the BBC reported. Finland is the only euro-zone country that requires bailouts to be approved by its parliament. Strong gains by the True Finns could derail a planned rescue for Portugal." What this means is that Goldman Sachs' European analysts will be scrambling all night to come up with loophole to European law that will not result in an epic plunge for the European currency, as apparently not even that sage among sages, Thomas Stolper, whose 2010 batting average of 0.000 made his contrarian calls manna from heaven in the past year, could anticipate this Black Swan. We will keep you informed of all the sell-side spin as it starts trickling in.

In the meantime, here is more from Marketwatch:

A stronger-than-expected showing by the True Finns, “or if some members from other parties take a similar line, could make things very touch and go,” said Steven Barrow, currency and fixed-income strategist at Standard Bank. “And clearly if there’s any possibility at all that Portugal might not get its money, it could hit bonds and the euro hard.”

Strategists note that the main opposition Social Democrats have hinted they may also oppose a bailout. The center-left Social Democrats opposed bailouts for Greece and Ireland.

The Portuguese bailout remains unlikely to be derailed, “but caution seems to be the watchword here until we can be sure that Finland can’t upset the party,” Barrow said.

European Union officials hope to finalize negotiations by mid-May on a Portuguese bailout expected to total around 80 billion euros ($115.7 billion).

At the least, True Finn’s ability to tap into anger over euro-zone bailouts may mean the next government draws an ever harder line in negotiations over Finland’s role in future rescues.

Much of the True Finns party’s recent success has been attributed to its leader, Timo Soini. The 48-year-old politician is often described as folksy and charismatic, with a reputation for witty speeches and vivid metaphors.

“How come they can’t see the euro doesn’t work?” Soini told Bloomberg earlier this year. “If a melon and an apple each wear the same size baseball cap, everyone can see that just doesn’t work.”

Well, when Europe is run by a man who tweets haikus and comes from a country that hasn't had a government for the longest amount of time in modern political history, logic probably is not the failing monetary union's strong suit.

So just how real is the threat of a derailment of the encroaching bailout scheme:

Pasi Kuoppamaki, chief economist at Sampo Bank in Helsinki, said negotiations to form a new government could take some time. And if the True Finns become the third- or second-largest party in parliament, there could be reverberations in the financial markets, he said, speaking before the polls opened.

But like many observers, Kuoppamaki is not convinced that the True Finns would be in a position to block bailouts or increased rescue funding even if they were able to secure a junior role in a new government.

Finnish officials, however, reacted to the True Finns’ rise by offering tough talk on bailouts.

Finance Minister Jyrki Katainen, leader of the pro-EU National Coalition Party, warned at last week’s meeting of EU finance ministers that Portugal must implement additional austerity measures that go beyond the proposals rejected by the nation’s parliament in March.

And Finland last month balked at committing to a previously-outlined plan for the euro-zone’s AAA-rated nations to boost guarantees to the EFSF. Prime Minister Mari Kiviniemi, who heads the Center Party, said the decision should be made by the nation’s next parliament. EU leaders agreed to finalize the plan in June.

The BBC reported Sunday that while Katainen’s NCP will remain the largest party, Kiviniemi’s Center Party’s number of seats may fall to around 36. Even before the election, Katainen was seen as a strong possibility to lead the next government as prime minister.

But even if Finland is not the proverbial straw on the camel's back, one is certainly coming. At this point well over half of Europe has had it with the decade long failed EUR experiment.

Randolph sees little chance Finland will turn away from the euro zone in the wake of the elections.

“More worrying is the general spread of populist and nationalist politics in the EU,” Randolph said.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s UMP party suffered big losses in regional elections in March, with the far-right National Front making large inroads, he noted.

The tone makes it more difficult to sell austerity in debtor nations and to make the case for backing the euro and the EU in creditor countries, Randolph said.

So far the EURUSD is trading stead, even as silver just took out $43.20. Something tells us the next FX regime will not be one marked by continuing strength of a currency whose ever greater number of constituent countries continue to exist purely on the luck of the draw, or the ever angrier populist vote.

 

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Sun, 04/17/2011 - 18:30 | 1178600 Infinite QE
Infinite QE's picture

To the saunas......

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 19:43 | 1178763 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Silver broke 30euro/ozt.

Catalunya is about to break free from the chains of Spain and issue its own currency.

It's happening...now...the death of the euro.

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 20:01 | 1178792 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Wild swings in Silver tonight. Looks like the shorts are attempting to get it below $43 without any success. Hopefully it will break $44 and if it's starting a secular bull run we may see $45 today as well. That will setup $50 by Friday or early next week.

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 22:54 | 1179055 bigdumbnugly
bigdumbnugly's picture
Will The Finnish Vote Dead End Europe's Bailout Bonanza?

 

yes, it will finnish them.

 

yuck yuck

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 20:29 | 1178840 Rider
Rider's picture

 

Just like the independence of the Republic of Texas.

Catalans sucked the tit of the government for many years getting most of the government  investments, now they are biting the hand who fed them in the past.

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 21:12 | 1178896 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

Remember the Alamo, bitches. 

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 22:15 | 1179005 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

Actually, Catalonia and the Basque regions were the most repressed by Franco (who made it illegal to speak Catalan). Makes sense they would want secession...

 

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 21:11 | 1178892 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

I was just over there.  I thought it would be interesting to get a sense of what was going on politically and economically.  I never got a sense.  I guess I was too much of a visitor.  I did help out the economy a lot, especially the brewers of Estrella.  I must say I was very disappointed with the food.  I had a paella in Sitges that was incredibly disappointing.   I can find 5 places within a mile from me that have paella that would have put it to shame.

It is my understanding that Ireland and Spain both grabbed the EU bucks with both fists.  Now, they are acting like all of those "homeowners" that cry predatory lending.  I'm not saying that I side with the financial elites.  I'm just saying that I hear a lot about "victims" but see so few of them.  I work with several Irish.  I remember when I was telling them in 2006 that the Irish miracle would end in tears.  They thought I was nuts.  All of their friends and relatives were doing great financially, especially the ones speculating in........drum roll please............real estate.  The ones speculating in Spanish real estate were really kicking ass.

The global financial clusterfuck is like a diamond.  There are so many facets.  Every time you look at it from a different angle you see something you never noticed before. 

It was fun seeing Roger Waters perform The Wall in Barcelona.  Something seemed right about it.

Roger sang, "mother, should I trust the government?"  The words "No Fucking Way" flashed across The Wall.  You can Roger that. 

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 04:29 | 1179399 Treason Season
Treason Season's picture

You don't go to Spain for the beer but thanks for the summary nonetheless.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 04:40 | 1179403 alpha60
alpha60's picture

word. had same disappointment in spain 18 months ago. thought i'd check out soon to be cheap real estate, spent a month driving from barcelona down the coast, then to lisbon, then south. what many readers may not realize is that tapas is actually spanish for 'unedible shite.'

though barcelona can be fun, overall the spanish coast was dirty, expensive and full of moderate to bad service, bad food. everybody seemed to be an f-uvalot richer than me, cause 5 euro waters didn't phaze 'em. 

the toll roads, built in parallel to the non-toll roads were gourgeous (and empty) and cost me about 60-80 euro a day. and those windmills.

found about nothing in spain, maybe i wasn't looking well enough. i hear basque country is pretty amazing.

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 18:35 | 1178611 Deluxe186
Deluxe186's picture

lolz

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 18:44 | 1178625 Quintus
Quintus's picture

Political parties all over Europe make Anti-EU noises during election campaigns, because they know that most Europeans want to roll back the unelected Supra-national political vampire squid that seeks to undermine our individual national sovereignties.  

However, it is remarkable just how quickly these same parties do a 180 degree turn as soon as they are elected and continue the same integrationist policies of the parties they have just beaten.  In Ireland's recent elections, for example, this U-turn took less than 3 weeks.  If the True Finns hold to the policies that won them so many seats in Parliament, it'll be a first.

I hope for the sake of all Europeans that they do, but I suspect that whatever tricks the EU used to bring previous Anti-EU parties into line will be deployed in this instance also.

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 19:07 | 1178675 chubbar
chubbar's picture

That's because it is much easier for TPTB to sit down and explain the facts of life to one or two elected officials than sway millions of voters. Just ask Kennedy.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 04:56 | 1179413 Quintus
Quintus's picture

Imagine how much more efficient the EU will be when they finally dispense with the need to sit down with elected officials and tell them what their policies will be.  No need for all those silly 'Election' thingies.  No need for national politicians to prepare a set of 'Policies' that will need to be 'Fixed' by the Eurocrats after the election.

Oh yes.  Much more efficient.

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 18:47 | 1178630 4shzl
4shzl's picture

Finns are the Angry Birds of the EMU.

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 18:51 | 1178635 Theta_Burn
Theta_Burn's picture

I don't care what Adam Ant says...Tom of Finland, you rock.

Now where the fuck are those 'true Americans?

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 18:59 | 1178649 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

True Americans are stufffing their face and watching a drug infested sports called MLB. Nothing new in the USA. Sheeples led to believe and ok with their TV shows and fast food.Don;t cut that cable , when they will rise up and say something.

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 20:01 | 1178799 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

If I could I would un-junk you.

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 20:56 | 1178875 Fred Hayek
Fred Hayek's picture

To bother to label any sport of any kind above the level of junior high school as "drug infested" is to indulge in redundancy. 

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 20:58 | 1178877 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Yeah. If angered, True Americans might get drastic and tweet sardonically! Or they might get really extreme and crumple the paper napkins from McDonald's and throw them on the ground! Just yesterday I saw a snippy bumper sticker.....spooky 

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 21:18 | 1178908 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

TPTB have developed the most amazing mind control device ever conceived.  It was so simple and so diabolical that it is scary.  I don't think its effects can be undone.  The masses are hooked and will not be won back.  The proles have no power to resist it.  It has stripped away any thought that Winston Smith may have had that revolution could begin with the proles.  The device is the cell phone.  There is no turning back.  Just watch the fucking idiots around you with their cell phones and try to convince yourself that this collection of morons is capable of anything productive. 

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 22:04 | 1178991 UGrev
UGrev's picture

You gotta blend, though. I still do sheeple shit on purpose so I don't appear to be a "survivalist". Last night, at my wifes birthday dinner, I had to explain what FIAT was to 3 CPA's. Playing their game is equally as powerful. Look normal, act normal.. say shit that makes heads explode like "This here money is backed by the sheer fact of your birth and what your potential is to produce". Then you sit in awe of replies like "wait.. our money isn't backed by gold?"...  I almost choked on my scallop. 

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 23:48 | 1179127 Founders Keeper
Founders Keeper's picture

[I still do sheeple shit on purpose so I don't appear to be a "survivalist".]---UGrev

This comes up for me some times too. There are people with whom I share absolutely nothing. I act as though the economy is fine, getting better, recession is over, good times ahead, glad that's over, planning a vacation this summer. (Geez, I haven't "planned" a vacation in two years!)

But, if you're a "cool customer," love this country, and hold dear at least the basic principles of our nation's founding, I'll take a chance on you.

 

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 04:43 | 1179406 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

glad that's over, planning a vacation this summer.

 

Nothing wrong with enjoying fruits of the loom while you still can.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 01:05 | 1179245 gorillaonyourback
gorillaonyourback's picture

fuck em jobe, the ones that junked u r the same fat ass, dorrito eatin piles of shit that sit in front of the tv

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 18:53 | 1178644 Doña K
Doña K's picture

We need a steady hand in Finland. Don't sell your souls to the banking cartels. Do the right thing.

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 19:14 | 1178698 Finn
Finn's picture

Sold that already in 1990. The politicians paid the price when national referendum in 1994 stripped them of power, by joining EU.

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 21:21 | 1178912 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

1940:  The Finns fight off an invasion by the Soviet Union

1990:  The Finns roll out the welcome mat to the EU.

What a shame.  So many proud peoples have been sold out.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 03:00 | 1179363 Finn
Finn's picture

Much more complicated than that. When your politicians sell your economy to banksters and TSHTF, do you reward them by allowing them business as usual, or do you strip them of power to repeat it? Oh yes, sorry I forgot, in US it's the former.

Finland did gain a lot from the Euro, not the least of which was extreme currency stability and very reasonable interest rates. Markka was destroyed, yes, but not by joining the Euro, it was crushed half a decade earlier by international speculators. Once your interest rates hit 20% and unemployment is 18%, the benefits really tend to seem like something you want.

Finland did survive, but it was real tough for the citizenry for the whole decade, and there's the big reason why my generation tends to look at the PIIGS struggling with auterity measures, and say BTDT.

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 19:02 | 1178657 Racer
Racer's picture

Funnymentals are irrelevant, the FED is GOd

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 19:05 | 1178665 IdioTsincracY
IdioTsincracY's picture

As everybody seems extremely worried about the EU, what is happening over there, albeit in a messy way, is a re-balancing process of the economies, that will lead to some sort of stability. Even though private investors will eventually take some losses, it will not be the disaster that everybody expects.
Actually it looks like the UK might end up being the biggest European problem (but this is for another day).

On the other end, the situation in the USA will most likely deteriorate greatly this fall when budget (political and financial), T-Bond, and Dollar crisis will hit at the same time possibly causing another historic crisis, only this time with the additional problem of high real inflation and weak job market.

I think that the two nations that bet everything on financial services (USA and UK) will again bring down the world.

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 21:24 | 1178917 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

Hand 20 people at random the same size of shoes and then tell them to run a 100 meter dash.  Wait to see how long it takes 15 of them to fall on their face. 

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 19:05 | 1178667 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

Agreed. However there are very many who already have and continue to be debt slaves and have not  woken up.

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 19:05 | 1178669 jkruffin
jkruffin's picture

Can I say?

Gold and Silver Bitchezz............

or is that already taken?

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 20:03 | 1178802 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Gold and Silver continue trending up. Gold=$1,488.10 Silver=$43.26

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 21:25 | 1178921 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

For dinner tonight I had two fillets of American silver eagles lightly broiled with a side of au gratin Krugerrands. 

It was delicious. 

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 01:59 | 1179314 tiger7905
tiger7905's picture

Norcini comments silver miners are obscenely undervalued due to ratio trade.

http://goldandsilverlinings.com/?p=682

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 19:06 | 1178671 IdioTsincracY
Sun, 04/17/2011 - 19:04 | 1178672 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Nokia, bitchez!  (How do you say that in Portugese?)

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 19:06 | 1178682 IdioTsincracY
IdioTsincracY's picture

LOL

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 19:26 | 1178730 Lord Welligton
Lord Welligton's picture

"Nokia, bitchez!"

Same the world over.

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 20:08 | 1178803 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"el texto messego."  as in "you go el broko, El Euro Loco."  Now will you marry me Margaret Brennan?  I have no reputation to uphold whatsover--THAT i can promise!

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 00:53 | 1179234 laughing_swordfish
laughing_swordfish's picture

es "El mesaje de texto"

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 22:26 | 1179017 camoes
camoes's picture

Nokia, putas!

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 19:13 | 1178700 Rhodin
Rhodin's picture

With luck, the Euro will be truly Finnish(ed) soon.  Does that give the dollar an extra month, or three?

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 20:07 | 1178806 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

About as much time as the second domino in line as someone knocks over the first one.

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 21:29 | 1178930 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

What country will claim the yen if Japan becomes uninhabitable? 

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 19:25 | 1178726 Lord Welligton
Lord Welligton's picture
Will The Finnish Vote Dead End Europe's Bailout Bonanza?

I pray to any God that exists that it does.

End the madness now.

 

 

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 03:07 | 1179375 Finn
Finn's picture

You can pray to anyone you believe in, but as for us, we voted for the change. The Common Finns became immediate major party. This has not happened since 1945. 

BTW, the party should not be called "True Finns" as many publications put it, it does not give the implications that are in the original word: the common people, necessary co-operation, and self-sacrifice if needed.

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 19:29 | 1178732 digalert
digalert's picture

We'll see... kinda like how the US had that disastrous November democrat house cleaning. Won on promises to end Barama-care, cut the spending, debt, blahblahblah. Now they're saying "well it's not that easy, gonna take time", ya right. Furthermore, as I recall most of america was against TARP, but we got it anyway. No more bailouts.

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 19:43 | 1178765 Rhodin
Rhodin's picture

Party doesn't matter that much.  Most of those running can be bought.  Say 1-2 mil per Rep vote and 5-10 mil per Senate vote, gets your buddies a majority vote in both houses for a 700 Billion bailout at the low low price of about 1 Billion.  Such a deal!

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 19:30 | 1178739 Yancey Ward
Yancey Ward's picture

I will believe it when the veto is issued.  Until then, I expect the politicians to bend the country over after the election, like they have all done to date.

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 19:37 | 1178745 IdioTsincracY
IdioTsincracY's picture

+10

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 08:17 | 1179654 Grappa
Grappa's picture

As a Finn I'm expecting business-as-usual. These buggers are the same or maybe even worse. We'll see.

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 19:37 | 1178749 Dr. Kenneth Noi...
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater's picture

Kids come a-runnin' for the rich taste of Sampo!

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 19:39 | 1178751 Dollar Bill Hiccup
Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

In my humble opinion, they will be bought off.

The Irish have been bought off. Well, some of the Irish. The ones who could actually give the haircuts. No, I don't mean the barbers ...

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 19:45 | 1178768 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

The Finns can be pretty fucking mean sometimes. Much depends on the coalition that emerges. Also on what else the Finns might want from Euroland.

I was there on New Years Eve when the Euro started and because Finland is so far east there was one hour when I could buy stuff in Euros and be in the only place in the world where you could. But it was after midnight in little Jyvaskyla, capital of Central Finland province and there was indeed little to do except drop molten lead into buckets so the older ladies who knew the craft could tell your fortune.....or burn stuff. Drinking of course.

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 19:53 | 1178777 M.B. Drapier
M.B. Drapier's picture

Even in the fairly unlikely event that Finland does vote against the Portuguese bailout, most likely the EU will produce a revised bailout which exempts Finland from contributing, and the Finns will vote for that. Obviously that would encourage other defections, but they'll probably keep the show on the road through at least the Portuguese bailout.

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 21:34 | 1178936 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

All Potemkin needed was perpetual cold and everything would have been fine.  Perhaps the brain trust of Europe think they can create perpetual winter and their palace will never melt.  I know which side of that bet I would take. 

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 03:17 | 1179380 Finn
Finn's picture

Matter of fact, Finland did vote against the bailouts, those will be extremely difficult to push through, what with the major win of the party that made the opposition of it their main business. It was funny to see how immediate news was that EU is now considering how to work out the bailouts without Finland.

Of course we'd vote for it, we've been betrayed enough times, and people would like nothing better than an official guarantee Finland stays out of that funnybusiness. Perhaps that would give the other bailout sceptics encouragement.

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 19:59 | 1178794 DonutBoy
DonutBoy's picture

It may be positive for the Euro. Either the PIIGS pop off the bottom of the stack or the Germans pop off the top.  Without a bailout, Portugal will be forced to consider exiting the Euro, which would make it more likely the core European economies can keep the Euro without going full Bernank.

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 21:53 | 1178937 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

How about we all agree to quit calling it the Euro and just call it The New and Improved Deutsche Mark?  It seems that would really simplify all of the discussions we are having.  Calling it the Euro is like calling The PATRIOT Act the Patriot Act instead of the We Want to Rule America With an Iron Boot Act that it really is. 

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 20:19 | 1178823 American idle
American idle's picture

Fucking SISU bitches.
SISU

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 20:31 | 1178839 max2205
max2205's picture

Figures the Finns would finish what the Irish couldn't finish

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 21:41 | 1178941 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

I know the Oirish leaders are scum, like the leaders of all of our countries.  The fact is that the people that seek power are the people that should never be allowed to attain it.  But I do have a little empathy for the Oirish leaders.  I wouldn't want to be the one to tell the populace that the country can no longer live beyond its means.  Just look at how difficult that task is here in USAville. 

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 20:29 | 1178843 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

the finns don't need this crap.  but who knows about "veto-ing" the monetary will of the EU and the IMF?  we'll wait & see.

i'm sure if you gave them a choice, they'd rather party with iceland and the norwegians or whoever is best suited to help iceland get re-started.  even these days, iceland must repesent some possibilities for these nations.  ireland is right on the way, too.  i can't even figure portugal out, at this point. 

do they even have a goverment?  is anybody left in the school cafeteria after that last lunch?  how do you bail out a country that bailed out weeks ago?

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 01:07 | 1179246 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

i can't even figure portugal out, at this point.

Portugal got WAY too much German like stuff way too soon.  They weren't/aren't ready for it.  There was NO FUCKING WAY they could pay for it.   They really didn't need it.  But they got it anyway.   Big surprise:  they can't pay for it.  They never could.  They don't catch enough fish or make enough port wine or olive oil.  And the really big sweat shops are in China, not Portugal.   They really didn't want or need all those freeways and infrastructure.  They kinda wanted some new Mercs.  The ones they were using were really worn out.  But they didn't know how they would swing it without any money.  They were offered a deal they couldn't refuse, and they didn't refuse it, (duh).  Just like the American homeowner that was offered more money than he'd ever seen to refi his house (hey, you only go round once).

All good things must come to an end and you can't squeeze blood out of a turnip.  I love Portugal.

End of story.

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 20:35 | 1178849 ZackAttack
ZackAttack's picture

I have enormous faith that, no matter who the electorate actually votes into office, bankers will find a way to capture or contravene them.

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 20:38 | 1178854 Gold Member
Gold Member's picture

The Euro is Finnished, hopefully.  Time to go back to national currencies.

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 20:40 | 1178856 PolishHammer
PolishHammer's picture

Yeah, Finland will derail EU and all the financial plans carefully implemented by TPTB.

 

Not a chance in hell.  Only natural disaster or some random calamity could at this point.

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 21:08 | 1178883 MarketTruth
MarketTruth's picture

Time to reprogram HAARP then...

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 21:12 | 1178893 nonclaim
nonclaim's picture

If a mega earthquake + giant tsunami + ongoing nuclear disaster can't break a fiat currency I'm not sure what will...

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 20:40 | 1178858 Frein
Frein's picture

Ah, pretty much the only good part in the campaign program of the True Finns. I sure hope they manage to mess this bailout up good. I've been plundered enough as it is.

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 20:58 | 1178878 Fred Hayek
Fred Hayek's picture

And this is the same EU that the prime minister of Iceland thinks the people of Iceland should appease by taking on $5 billion of EU bank losses for no good reason?  That's like knowing in 1912 that the Titanic is going to go down and being upset that you couldn't get on in England.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 01:12 | 1179253 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

That's like knowing in 1912 that the Titanic is going to go down and being upset that you couldn't get on in England.

Nice, very nice!   I wish I'd come up with that one.  +10.

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 21:05 | 1178881 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

What this country needs is a hip conservative. Someone who's collars are extra starched and who wears wing tips, but who can trade scripted barbs on TV with celebrities. What this country needs is Donald Trump and Fred Thompson. Happy days will be here again

 

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 22:01 | 1178949 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

Does anybody remember Fred Thompson's presidential campaign?  Abortionists are left with more lively things than that campaign.  He would have made Admiral Stockdale look like a good candidate.

 

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 21:27 | 1178926 vainamoinen
vainamoinen's picture

Military historian John Keegan said that of all the European peoples the Finns were the most warlike.

I'm not sure I agree - but, I understand why he said it.

Once they get focused Finns can be relentless.

SISU lives!!

Go get'em Timo!!!

 

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 21:49 | 1178966 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

The Russkies had a rough go of the Finns on their first shot in 1940.  It was this resistance by the Finns that convinced Hitler that the Soviet system was a disaster.  "Kick in the door and the whole rotten structure will fall."  So you could say the Finns were one of the leading causes of Operation Barbarosa which was the big gamble that toppled Hitler. 

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 01:16 | 1179268 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

The Finns are different.  They can be more stubborn than anyone, including the Russians, could ever believe.  They're tough and they don't give up.

Their breeding practices are interesting as well.

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 22:25 | 1179007 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Looks like the whole world is turning Tea Party. No more fuckin' around with the EU and banker bullshit. Looks like Thor's Hammer still beats in the heart of some Nords.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 04:46 | 1179383 Finn
Finn's picture

You're calling for wrong gods of wrong peoples. Finns are no descendants of vikings, matter of fact, vikings always had enormous difficulties with warlike finns.

However, we have a saying: seven wars, all lost, but never giving up. How's that for toughness and sisu?

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 22:18 | 1179009 faithfulwatchman
faithfulwatchman's picture

If wishes were horses....Hi Ho SILVER ....AWAY!

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 22:28 | 1179019 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Silver rides again in the overnight. 

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 22:50 | 1179053 Misean
Misean's picture

This is getting kinda spooky...

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 22:32 | 1179023 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

The Vikings from Finland say DEATH in a million ways to Portugal

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TJyVd_aQEZM&feature=related

 

 

 

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 22:45 | 1179038 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

Go Finland!

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 22:47 | 1179041 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

Please let the EU be Finnished

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 23:22 | 1179093 zen0
zen0's picture

Does everyone so soon forget about rooting for the Irish to stick it to the EU.

How did that work out for you?

The one thing the Finns got going for them is they like to kill Russians. That might get them over the top.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 03:37 | 1179388 Finn
Finn's picture

What's to root for in Ireland? They voted for change, and the winner of the election immediately rolled over for the banksters. And they're not even demonstrating. Pussies.

Now if they were actually living up to their tough reputation, then I'd be rooting for them.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 00:52 | 1179214 squexx
squexx's picture

So what if the Finns veto?!? China has lots of $$ it wants to get rid of and would love to buy property and influence in Europe! Why is everyone ignoring this 700 lb gorilla in the room?

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 01:25 | 1179279 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

Not everyone is ignoring that gorilla.  The gorilla is the reason the EU needs to make a deal with Portugal notwithstanding the Finnish problem.  Once they get their foot in the door . . .

I don't remember seeing many Chinese restaraunts in Lisbon the last time I was there.  There were more in Brussels.  It wasn't a problem (for me).

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 04:17 | 1179395 Zf0
Zf0's picture

Impossible !

ECB is much more independent and sovereign than Any EU Nations !!!

Frankly speaking, What ECB has been doing clearly showed to the whole world :

ECB is for banker group ,not for EU and any EU Nation!

ECB is not responsible for EU Nations ,and Never care about EU Nation and All EU people !

Not only pigs country ,but some other Eu Nations all looks like Nations without independency and sovereign !

But ECB is !

 

ECB Looks like the real leader and Central government in Europe !

 

If things going on like now,

Eventually, We should not only call greece state,portugal state,ireland state.... Under ECB,

 

But also, Spain state, Italy state ,...... French state ,German State under ECB !!!

 

Funny fucking world !

 

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 04:46 | 1179409 AAPL_Short
AAPL_Short's picture

Go free men of Finland. I am absolutely convinced that the remaining bastions of humanity and free men are Finland and Iceland.

Oh, and it just became clear that Greece will default bitchez: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/18/greece-debt-restructuring-idUS...

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 06:01 | 1179454 Sir Angry Spankalot
Sir Angry Spankalot's picture

US expat living in Finland a few years now. As someone here explained it to me Perus Suomalainen,True Finns, would be like if all the KKK folks and hillbillies formed a party and suddenly won in the US. Their platform is anti immigrant and anti bailout but they are seen as generally obstructionist rather than helpful with useful ideas. I am anti globalism (aka New World Order) with power and money control moving into fewer and fewer hands so I can empathise with the feeling. Maybe it will be a lesson dor kokoomus and sdp and keskusta to stop being arrogant and to consider the concerns of the common man a bit more

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 06:55 | 1179479 Finn
Finn's picture

Pretty much all of that is the alarmist view favored by the established parties (kokoomus, sdp, keskusta and the greens,) who want to scare the too stoopid populace to go with the establishment and NWO. Don't fall into that trap.

The major issue about immigration is not immigration per se, but uncontrolled importing of poor people from developing countries, who are instantly incapable of supporting themselves since they have no education, no linguistic skills, and no suitable profession. Getting bad conscience due to someone having born and living in a country where they are poorer. Let me call it humanitarian immigration for want of a better term, for they are not refugees as defined by Geneva Convention. If someone has a job, or is employable and actually wants to work, and agrees to obey the local laws, they are welcome regardless of skin colour, ethnic background, country of origin, et cetera ad nauseam. Even by the so-called True Finns (I prefer the Common Finns, since the word "perus" really means the basic, the common, the usual.)

I see the issue as refusing to feel bad for not importing the world's gazillion poor into one of the most expensive countries in the World, where the few million citizens will need to support them. And to not feel bad for wanting those already imported to fit in our society, instead of building a third world slums right here.

It's too bad that all the established parties tried to scare people and muddy the issue by mixing all immigration with the humanitarian immigration. It's quite difficult to have a conversation when the semantics switch from one sentence to the next. It's a way of newspeak, and this is a major issue in the election. This, telling those doing it that it's not okay, and the EU bailouts, which are intensely popular with main populace.

I hope you're right about the lesson to the three formerly biggest parties. Now they are paying the price, and I for one am happy to see this shooting star to appear just the right time to have effect on the bailout stuff - shooting star since I have no doubt the Common Finns will be mostly gone by next election. I wouldn't want to be forced to bitchslap the other politicians again, to have to vote for someone I think is no good at all in the long term just because the established politicians are clueless, but apparently that's just the way politics works.

Hope this clarifies it some.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 07:23 | 1179517 TheEternalTriangle
TheEternalTriangle's picture

Part of the problem though is that in most countries immigrants are actively prevented from earning their way. As an example, UK asylum seekers do not get a work permit and hence it is illegal for them to work. This is due to various people not wanting foreigners to take their jobs. Generally these same people are the ones most upset about stories of asylum seekers being housed, fed and clothed by the state. In the same way illegal immigrants couldn't pay taxes for example (or claim benefits) as any contact with the authorities is unlikely to turn out well for them. It's a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation.

Then you have the issue of illegal immigrants undercutting the wages of the local workforce or being "willing" to work under conditions the local workforce wouldn't. This once again is driven by the stigmatisation of illegal immigrants. They are in a far worse bargaining position than local labor as they can't go to the authorities for redress; they'd be kicked out and they would have to face some very nasty people back home who just had their compadres thrown into jail. They are most likely in hock to some seriously nasty peopl who can make examples of them or their family.

Despite all this they are willing to have a shot and work themselves to the bone as it is likely to make them able to get more hard currency then they would be able to make at home. In many ways it is bootstraps at its finest, not that too many people see it that way however.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 08:08 | 1179626 Finn
Finn's picture

In Finland, those applying for refugee status are permitted to work after three months, and learning the language at all will certainly take longer than that. Sure, it's clear that social support will be needed until then, but once there it should be reasonable to expect them to prove they want to be part of the society. If they don't, then why are they here? Or more to the point, why would we allow them here? Just for the fun of sticking it to the majority populace?

In a way illegal immigration is pretty simple, it's not legal anyway by definition, so it should be grounds for immediate deportation (for foreigners) or criminal penalty (for citizens arranging it.) Of course victims of human smuggling require special handling, but then, those are not the majority of the humanitarian immigration in any case. There's already rules and signed treaties that state how to handle immigration, and I fail to see what's wrong with enforcing laws and treaties. And if the refugee applicants have months to go anyway, then you might want to also educate them a bit about their duties to the society.

The "grey economy" or illegal working will need separate attention. It's tax crime after all, and the only case in Finnish law that even a citizen needs to prove innocence is against the tax office. I see no reason to allow it any better for immigrants. Labour and minimal wage laws applies to all work, and enforcing them should be done anyways.

So, what's the beef here? Humanitarian immigration just for the bleeding hearts? I have nothing against it provided it causes no increased crime, no economic hardship for those I care about, and that my taxes don't pay for it. Otherwise I require to be asked. This seemed to be too much to ask for the Swedish party, the Kokoomus and the Greens. And this IMHO is the major issue, also in yesterday's election. The loosening of the standards without asking those who actually pay for it, ie. spending others' money to quiet one's own troubled conscience. I have no pity for the corrupt or leeches/vampires, especially if they are foreign. We have plenty of our own.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 09:03 | 1179763 TheEternalTriangle
TheEternalTriangle's picture

"In a way illegal immigration is pretty simple, it's not legal anyway by definition, so it should be grounds for immediate deportation (for foreigners) or criminal penalty (for citizens arranging it.)"

You talk as if that solves the problem. What you state here is the status quo. Making it illegal has done very little to stem the flow since the pressure driving them here are so great. Even if you were to create a blank concrete strip a mile wide on your border and shoot everything that moves it still wouldn't prevent illegal immigration.

As I mentioned before once they are inside the country the threeat of immediate deportation prevents them from contributing to society in many ways.

The presence of a significant disenfranchised minority is not good for society, I do not think they can be made to vanish so the only other solution I see is to find some way to enfranchise them.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 12:16 | 1180735 Sir Angry Spankalot
Sir Angry Spankalot's picture

Finn, I hear you and can definitely feel where you are coming from. Finland has come a long way since their Bank disaster in the 90s and have been much more conservative in their banking since then. Dont even dream of getting a home loan without a down payment and forget a locked in fixed rate for any US type length of time. Immigration here IS an issue. I think most of these euro countries wanted to 'do the right thing' (like sweeden) and open their doors. Unfortunately it can have disastrous effects. The conspiracy part of me wants to believe that, like in the UK, this is by design. There is an attempt to bring the more prosperous nations into a subservient third world status by created disruption and dissent in the masses. 

Then you take a pretty homogeneous society like Finland, home of the secret language of 5 million people, and throw in a bunch of foreigners...not to mention unskilled immigrants and it becomes difficult. Social support is a given due to the fact that  jos et puhu, et tyoskentele....pretty much. if you dont speak finnish you wont get far and given that it is one of the top 5 or so most difficult languages to learn you are looking at a few years of support before being able to work. This automatically creates tension in a society where people, on average, make pretty low wages. 'why should we support some foreigner when I cant get a good paying job myself?'.  Im from the medical field and have been here almost 4 years...there is no way I can work as a doc here yet. im working on it but if i werent married to a finn...forget it. Plus, values and culture are very different here. imagine a place you can leave your coat and bags outside the lunch room and have all your shit there when you come back! live in NYC long? not gonna happen. people in finland tend to respect other peoples stuff and dont steal...that isnt always the case with foreigners and one bad apple in a building full of trusting finns can definitely change the prevailing customs. 

So, being a foreigner myself, I am surprisingly mixed on this idea. integrating here is not easy and unfortunately finland needs to put more thought into how many are allowed in and of what background. While opening doors to people who are less fortunate is nobel it should not be done cavalierly and in high numbers because of the extreme tension and ill will it creates in the average population. It also creates a lot of prejudice. I have a friend from Turkey ( not too well liked here in finland) who speaks pretty good finnish and cant get a job to save his life because of his education from turkey not being accepted. If you are dark skinned here the racism and tension can be even worse. 

finland does a lot to try to integrate foreigners with full time language/culture classes available but it is a long process which is not easy. 

This election could be the kick in the ass that these globalist type parties need to start to be disabused of the brainwashing that the NWO types of the USA have been dishing out. All that glitters is not gold and sometimes staying regional instead of going global can be the best thing.

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 04:06 | 1183149 Finn
Finn's picture

Well put, sir! Coming to Finland is an order of magnitude more difficult thing than coming into a country the language of which you speak already. If one stops to think just for a moment, it becomes obvious that there are just so many unemployed foreigners the country can support -- and then there's the issue of extreme unemployment of those under 35, which should be declared a national disaster, we have hands full supporting our own. Worse, the foreigners tend to bunch together, which while understandable and normal human behaviour, but it is a highway to slum formation. Who's happy then?

Again you are right in stating that there are racistic tendencies, where people of darker skin colour are shunned, and often find it difficut to live a normal life. However, I am of the mind that bringing in more dark skinned people -- many of whom (perhaps having no choice) turn to petty crimes and live on social security -- is no way to improving the situation, but is bound to increase racism and tensions. That is where the real racism comes, and I dare say it will be ugly. We haven't really had racist riots in the country, apart from a few neonazi extremist happenstances, and those were really disapproved by major populace. Imagine what happens if these gain popular support, I at least shudder at the thought. One can check out Lapuan Liike to see what can happen.

Now, if the situation and immigration prospects are this hard, is it humane to allow so-called humanitarian immigration? Indeed, is it humane to encite racism, to subject the people hoping for heaven to something that horrible? I think not, and thing should be brought under control before proceeding with it. The way it's been going, there's no doubt going to be bad things happening, and the immigrants are an extremely likely first target. I think things go worse from there, but by the time Finns get to killing each other, all the smart people are already out of the country. Now that's something to try and avoid.

And then again, as you mention the banking disaster and haw hard it's to get a loan, this is a big factor why Finns see the PIIGS as BTDT, and that they should do as we did, grit teeth and bear it. It also comes from the national character, the thinking that everybody is responsible for their own mess.

And here we see the likely reasons for the major win of the True Finns: major political parties had forgotten that they have the resposibility to the populace, the uncontrolled humanitarian immigration, and the forgetting of that Finland actually survived the currency and banking crises of 1990. We'll see if anything else changes, but I think PIIGS will now get a pat on the shoulder and a wish for luck. If not, then we'll probably see demonstrations, and I see a path towards strikes and riots. That in turn could be a real disaster for the foreign immigrants.

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 12:30 | 1184391 Sir Angry Spankalot
Sir Angry Spankalot's picture

If Finland wants to be smart about immigration they should take the approach the US did during the 70s. They had quotas for people in certain professions we needed and wanted to help strengthen our own industry. This tended to bring in professionally oriented folks like asian tech engineers and doctors. In my mind, this has the benefit of exposing potential xenophobes to foreigners with 'good values' who tend to live similarly to them. This gives positive feelings instead of distrust. Maybe if Finland made sure to import professionals of dark skin this would have the same effect; promoting good feelings towards them instead of just seeing petty crime which , unfortunately, tends to be more prevalent in folks coming from poorer backgrounds.Im not dissing finland. Its a great place to live and people have been generally welcoming. it is just not the easiest place to come to!

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 02:19 | 1187093 Finn
Finn's picture

Well put again, and nothing would suit the immigration policy critics better, believe me. However, it's difficult to even speak of things sensibly when the proponents and implementors of the humanitarian immigration switch semantics from one swentence to the next, they say that immigration is needed (that's work-related immigration,) which is generally agreed on, and then go on how immigration is proceeding nicely (and that's humanitarian immigration.) And when the (humanitarian) immigration policies are criticized, the critics are rubber stamped racists, since they dont want immigration. No wonder people are completely fed up with immigration proponents and voted for change. Accordingly, the Common Finns won big, since they campaigned against all this, and the Greens who are strong proponents and implementors ot it lost big.

I have to mention that the quota system you propose is excellent idea, and should have been implemented long ago, but those implementing and "improving" the system were totally opposed to limiting anything. And that's doubly difficult then, since they had the power.

As Grappa said, there's still a chance that nothing comes out of the big change, and news was Soini was already softening his stance towards Portugal bailout. I sure hope they don't get corrupted by power politics and let the change slip from their hands. We'll see.

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 06:12 | 1179462 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

at almost 20% to borrow for Greek 20 and 30 year debt the Finnish position is almost mute... the markets are throttling the inept politicians and bringing their clown show to a screeching halt!

Mon, 04/18/2011 - 10:28 | 1180273 Central Wanker
Central Wanker's picture

After the landslide victory of the "True Finns" (or more precisely: "Grassroot Finns"), forming the next government will be a long and painful process. The "True Finns" cannot be taken into the government because they won't support any bailout package but they cannot really be sent to the opposition either. Wrestling with that dilemma may be enough alone to kill the Portuguese and any other future bailout packages.

Today, I'm proud to be a Finn. And yes, I did vote for Mr. Soini, the Bastard-in-Chief himself :-)

 

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