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Will The Repo-Reserve Carry Trade Blow Up Force Bernanke To Pull Liquidity And Kill The Stock Market Rally Early?

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Tue, 04/05/2011 - 12:57 | 1137515 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

OT - I didn't even read this article, because the lunacy is getting so incredible & at such a fast pace, it's actually hilarious -

 

Keep inflation under control? They're going to install new cooling systems at Fukushima?

O RLY?

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 12:57 | 1137563 Robslob
Robslob's picture

I think the headlines got mixed?

Japan is committed to keep "inflamation" under control.

Fed to install new cooling system to keep inflation under control.

There...fixed...

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 13:12 | 1137581 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I was early, because two equally hilarious if not more hilarious headlines were just posted:



The genius that is Plosser and all his henchmen at the Federal Reserve are "sorting out the causes of the financial crisis" and his buddy Lockhart says regulatory policy making is hard. You simply can't make this shit up. Back on topic - Gold and Silver and anything commod oriented are killing Bernanke, bursting his 'no inflation' bullshit, rendering it the ramblings of a criminal to the ears of even the most sheepified. Gold and Silver are crushing The Bernank.  A silver dagger to the heart of The Bernank.

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 13:08 | 1137618 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

In more IMPORTANT NEWS:

P&G is SELLING Pringles!!

 

YEAH!! YOU HEARD IT!! PRINGLES FOR GOD SAKE!

we sure live in a changing world...

let's hope they don't change the recipe...

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 13:18 | 1137672 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Talk about desperation! Pringles is a sure-fire non-glam money-maker. It's the type of bread and butter business that conglomerates used to be ecstatic to have in their portfolio. In desperate times however, there's a need to gamble on explosive growth (which can also explode). 

Let's hope China doesn't buy Pringles. If they do, leave the country

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 13:23 | 1137684 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

i love Pringles.  I eat them.  They're wonderful.  Wall Street...if you screw up my Pringles I'm a gonna....

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 15:40 | 1138286 ml8ml8
ml8ml8's picture

I love Pringles, but I can't eat them anymore.  I'm not like some big nutritionist or anything, but regular Pringles have almost 1 gram of fat per chip.  Every time I eat a bunch, I picture a large blobule of coalescing lipids in my stomach, and it makes me physically ill.  I call them "chips of death."  http://caloriecount.about.com/calories-pringles-original-i106605  (I think there are about 10 chips per serving.)  On an up note, they are good for about 6% of your RDA of Vitamin C.  I've never researched what substitute chemicals they use to replace fat in the not-original Pringles, but I figure it can't be much better for you.

Sometimes the truth sucks.

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 15:54 | 1138336 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Didnt care for the Olestra version?

Pringles is shit food, a big problem with this country.

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 16:49 | 1138514 ParaZite
ParaZite's picture

Speaking of shit food... those damn Olestra chips caused diarrhea worse than bad Mexican food. 

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 16:57 | 1138542 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

I guess that is a running joke?

 

Nothing like "Anal Leakage" as a side-effect...

I mean seriously what the fuck has this country come to? Probabaly 90% of the population eats processed garbage and we wonder why the nation is obese and riddled with Type II Diabetes...Food is not supposed to come with a label listing side effects...

For the record, the last fast food I ate was in 2007, and I can count on 2 hands the number of times since 1994...

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 17:19 | 1138622 3.7.77
3.7.77's picture

Must be tough when you get the munchies.

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 17:21 | 1138633 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

I eat nuts.... cashews, filberts, brazilians, almonds, hazels... no peanuts

I get 16 oz bags of good low salt mixed nuts for $5.99 at Trader Joes, compare that to a bag of Doritos for $3.99.  I get cashew pieces for $2.99 a lb....

Even in a kush induced haze of muchies, you can't eat more than 1/4 of a bag. That is what real food is.

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 20:38 | 1139279 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

Good diet Flakster.

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 22:13 | 1139507 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Flak, you are correct.

Processed foods are the bane of western civilization, and the reason for exponential increases in diabetes the world over (including India, now).

Most people have no idea that refined foods are far more unhealthy and lead to more adipose tissue (belly fat) and insulin resistance than ANY whole foods, including saturated animal fat.

Also, corn and potatoes (white, not sweet potatoes) are devoid of almost any nutrition, and in fact, white potatoes produce a higher insulin response than a soft drink.

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 12:52 | 1137537 Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

Off Topic: I wish to Thank Ben Bernanke today, on my 27th birthday for the returns in gold and silver shares to about 3% of my portfolios value.

Thanks Ben, you unscrupulous motherfucking sack of shit, your policies make our futures no brighter.

 

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 12:59 | 1137564 I Am Ben
I Am Ben's picture

You are welcome citizen! And Happy birthday!

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 12:59 | 1137565 SteveNYC
SteveNYC's picture

Good to see others in my generation onto the scam that is the Bernank and his merry band of Fed fakers. Spread the word.....

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 13:02 | 1137577 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

i'm equally happy. Boomer here who seized control of my 401(k)...liquidated all the idiot stocks that the "investment advisor" (little branch of C) bought me into....three years ago...

what had to stay there went into metals stocks.

what i could take out went into hard metal.

fuck you Ben. my retirement is not going to be seized by JPM. fuck you.

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 16:57 | 1138544 SteveNYC
SteveNYC's picture

Nicely delivered!

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 15:01 | 1138111 JoeSexPack
JoeSexPack's picture

Happy B-Day!

Gen X'r here, dumped my duplex in 06 & got on the Au/Ag train.

Looking forward to a long ride.

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 15:19 | 1138182 Ben Fleeced
Ben Fleeced's picture

I kept tellin' people Xrs would shine. Still not sure of the Ys

Good on ya' !

one NxtGenr

Son of a Gr8st.

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 13:04 | 1137544 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Less dollars... April 27th

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 12:56 | 1137553 gordengeko
gordengeko's picture

Nice catch TD, looks like Ben is in a little bit of a quagmire.  Pull the butt plug out on his favorite toy (the casino in the sky) or double down.  Fuck it, double down Ben and send our precious non-ferrous white metal to the moon!

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 12:55 | 1137556 bogey4
bogey4's picture

No

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 13:00 | 1137579 mule65
mule65's picture

+1

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 12:58 | 1137560 Cleanclog
Cleanclog's picture

The Portuguese bankers saying they "have virtually no more margin to buy country's debt" . . . if the Fed won't help the US bankers with POMO, then I'd have to wager, they also have no more margin to buy Treasuries.  

Who/What will buy and hold Treasuries?  Higher yields necessary? And then the perpetuating circle of higher yields and vortex of lower prices kicks in.  And carries over to muni's, sovereign debt everywhere, corporates, and credit illiquidity again.  3 years later and all the monetary medication for nil.

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 13:00 | 1137578 Captain Willard
Captain Willard's picture

Tyler - Doesn't this mean that the Fed is trying to get banks to either 1) lend more money or 2) extend duration od their securities portfolio ?

In either case, the Non-Borrowed/REquired Reserves Ratio is very high. Banks are very liquid. This shouldn't be confused or conflated with leverage coming from large holdings of short-duration, low yield government/agency securities.

I do agree with you that much of the action has moved overseas to chase higher yields. Bill Gross said as much this morning on CNBC. And I believe you're right that FX action will get crazier as a result.

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 13:26 | 1137695 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

or you can buy El Paso preferred/convertible and get yield right at home in a space that..., aw, forget it.

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 14:00 | 1137838 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

I have prints for EPPRC at 19.... heh, heh, heh...

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 13:03 | 1137584 alexanderstollznow
alexanderstollznow's picture

this:

"By now everybody knows that only a last ditch intervention by the G7 prevented the financial system from imploding three weeks ago, when the Yen carry trades blew up in the face of all those who had been short yen, long high yielding currencies. The result would have been a pervasive trading desk annihilation, possibly on par with that experienced after the Lehman collapse had the world's central banks not stepped in to sell Yen in droves."

is a real stretch, by any measure.  the move which prompted the intervention was a sharp selloff which occurred about 10 minutes after NY close ie no interbank, and was therefore hugely exaggerated.  it felll from 80 to 76.22, but had recovered all by itself to about 79 within an hour. the intervention which followed added a whole 1.5 yen to the pair, and left it where it was a day before that fall.  so, no, i dont think there was some major risk of runaway trading desk or institutional failure as a result of that brief spec selloff.  OTOH, the intervention might have had something to do with protecting japan's export competitiveness at a time when its economy is obviously under major stress.   or would that reason not be conspiratorial enough?

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 13:12 | 1137636 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

You seem non-conspiratorially informed: please advise what the token P&L loss to FX desks across the world would have been if USDJPY had opened and closed at 76 the next day, had another G7 bail out not been factored in after hours?

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 13:40 | 1137753 alexanderstollznow
alexanderstollznow's picture

when i worked on an fx desk, the purpose of the spot desk was to make a few pips here when they could, and offset the almost all of its net position to interbank and customers with offsetting interest.  there wasnt actually a lot of risk sitting on the fx desk, because that is not the role of an fx desk. hello! 

yes, there are bank employed prop traders and hedgies etc who have prop positions, but at any given time, and industry wide, they will be largely offsetting. so with any particular move, there are going to be winners and losers and the it isnt going to bring the banking system down.  just like it didnt during another carry trade unwind in 1998.  on that occasion, the pair fell 10 figures in a matter of an hour or two, and the banking system didnt fall apart.

in any case, the pair DID open the next day without intervention and it wasnt at 76. how much that was due to the expectation of intervention - and i agree that there was such an expectation - is impossible to say.  what can be said, however, was that the selling was specifically timed to occur minutes after NY interbank closed on the day, and, as such, i am very doubtful about the amount of selling which was involved, and therefore the significance of the size of the move.

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 13:53 | 1137811 prophet
prophet's picture

Hopefully large enough to have them resolved.

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 13:56 | 1137833 alexanderstollznow
alexanderstollznow's picture

anyway, better stand down so you can all read the Fed Minutes :)

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 14:40 | 1138011 greased up deaf guy
greased up deaf guy's picture

this is totally a nitpick, but i think you meant to say "pennies in front of the steamroller"... unless there's some entrenched symbolism that i missed.

getting whacked by a rollercoaster unexpectedly would leave a mark too, i suppose. :-p

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 20:07 | 1139064 XPolemic
XPolemic's picture

Actually, the carry trade is usually hedged with caps, floors and swaps (and THOSE instruments are usually hedged with FX fwds and options). So it would be the Fixed Income desk that would get hammered.

The loss would be unrealised until the subsequent coupon period,(edit) but the large change in price would cause the VaR to blow out in Yen sensitive positions (that are non-linear, such as options, by changing the moneyness. 80 to 76 being a 4000bp move after all, even 80 to 79 is 100bps intraday), causing Tier 1 capital requirements to blow out OR large scale unwinding of Yen sensitive positions, which would feed back into the volatility (through a change in open interest in long-short positions, hence the implied vol). This is a classic feedback loop that the financial system is not equipped to deal with.

The only way to prevent feedback-loop down-spiralling in modern financial markets is with government intervention, which is now pretty much guaranteed, so I guess the REAL question is, how much money is there to be made front-trading the intervention?

 

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 13:17 | 1137655 SDRII
SDRII's picture

There is so much wrong with this statement where to start. Yen " recovered all by itself to about 79 within an hour" you sure about that? IF so, explain the insider view? Second if the half life on the "panic" was as short as you claim, why is the G7 still standing by to throttle the yen - look at the overnight trade. On the exports, the yen is becoming subordinate to the toxicity of the the food, supply chain etc. India banned all food imports this am. Also, the rush by the  BOJ to stamp out capital repatriation "rumors" was hurried, no? Especially when as you say there was no need for intervention in the first place. Swaps books please 

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 13:26 | 1137703 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

you mean "throttle Japan"..."followed by their consent" of course.

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 13:27 | 1137710 alexanderstollznow
alexanderstollznow's picture

"There is so much wrong with this statement where to start. Yen " recovered all by itself to about 79 within an hour" you sure about that?"

yes, i am sure of that.  low was 76.75. close of the next hour was 79.14. so i stand partically corrected:  it was back to about 79.00 within 90 minutes.  close of the hour after that was 79.54. mkt was about 79.40 when intervention kicked in.  irrespective of what 'standing by the throttle' may or may not mean, there was one round of intervention, it took the pair to 82.00, and the next 250 pts higher have occurred without any further assistance.

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 13:44 | 1137782 SDRII
SDRII's picture

I didnt ask you to read the chart back to me. I asked you to describe to us the order flow from your insider perch that supports your claim in what is the largest and deepest market. waiting?

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 13:57 | 1137787 alexanderstollznow
alexanderstollznow's picture

i didnt claim to have an insider view, and if you anything at all about fx, you will realise that absolutely noone does, as there is zero transparency as to how much is trading and who is doing it.  what i said is no more or less that i said, and it is part based on general experience and the rest is based on what i, and you, can see with our eyes.

you will also note that to the extent i am reading back the chart to you, i was answering your specific question as to whether i was sure the market recoved of its own accord in a specific time frame.

re the other matters raised.  if foreigners are buying fewer japanese products, they are buying less yen and selling less of everything else particularly USD.  ie another reason why a sharp move down in USDJPY was fake.  i am not aware of what the BOJ said about repatriation, but by the time the move occurred, i had already seen many stories on that subject and they were coming from both sides ie yes there will, no there wont, be large repartiation flows.  as there was absolutely no consensus as to whether such a thing would occur, i dont see that any expectation of it or otherwise, would have been reflected in price.

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 16:44 | 1138500 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

By the time this is long in the tooth, the Yen goes belly up, yellow fin tuna style.

You can take that to Fukushima.

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 13:58 | 1137841 fuu
fuu's picture

It took 24 hours before it broke back over 80 for the pair. Very visible on every chart i just rechecked.

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 13:06 | 1137592 max2205
max2205's picture

:)

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 13:06 | 1137593 max2205
max2205's picture

:(

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 13:03 | 1137594 max2205
max2205's picture

lots of balls in the air and only one spark required to start the supernova sequence.

saw this morning in wsj...cnbs....nothing

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 13:05 | 1137606 Attitude_Check
Attitude_Check's picture

I think a repeat of the crash in 2008 after a withdrawal of liquidity spiking the $, and dropping equities was ALWAYS the plan. Scare the dumb money into Treasuries and then drop a HUGE QE 3 bomb!

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 13:12 | 1137632 dracos_ghost
dracos_ghost's picture

I believe they will call it a "Kinetic Monetary Action" (KMA) -- or Kiss My Ass which would be more appropriate.

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 14:09 | 1137873 metastar
metastar's picture

Bravo!

Tue, 04/05/2011 - 13:27 | 1137711 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

GREAT!  "What do you do for an encore" moment.  I can hardly wait...

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