Will Silver Be Worth More Than Gold? Perspectives On A Coming Silver Shortage

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Fri, 12/31/2010 - 11:43 | 839457 joemayo
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Silver aquired at a 65:1 (or greater) ratio buys a lot more gold today at 46:1, and for that I am very happy.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 14:45 | 839974 midtowng
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The video was a bit on the hyperbole, but the major facts were correct. Silver should outperform gold for the rest of the precious metals bull market.

 Eventually we should see a 15:1 ratio again.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 23:39 | 841042 dlmaniac
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I'd like to wait til silver's investment demand overshoots the industrial demand and then make a call on where gold VS silver ratio is heading.


Here's one stat I've noticed based on my rough reading of this year's sales # @ US Mint: For every 2000 US$ going into gold coins, 1000 went into silver coins. Since no one buys them as commodities @ US Mint, it should be a useful indicator of general public's investment interest in gold and silver for now.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 11:44 | 839459 Azannoth
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Silver could soon be a new Rare Earth element ?

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 11:50 | 839468 Lets Hang Parliament
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And the Chinese mine more of it than anyone else....

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 12:15 | 839542 Sean7k
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A lot of their production is recycled silver as an import as they do not care about polluting their land in the reprocessing. As silver gains in value, this will probably change.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 12:43 | 839616 trav7777
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silver???  No, peru and mexico

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 15:18 | 840096 DoChenRollingBearing
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Peru is the number one producer of silver, correct.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 14:47 | 839983 Rudeger
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Peru,then Mexico and China.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 14:54 | 839994 Temporalist
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Completely wrong.  Gold yes, silver no.  Trav and Rud correct.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 11:53 | 839460 66Sexy
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Siver has never been hoarded by investors like we're seeing today; which means silver could easily be used as money as it filters down among the population.

If the FED wants the psychological benefits of a domestic wealth effect, they just need declare a silver backed currency -- and revalue silver @ 500 an oz.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 12:03 | 839506 Azannoth
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If we have 7B oz. of gold and ONLY 1B oz. of silver, I guess it would be easier to back a currency with gold

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 13:18 | 839738 66Sexy
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for the record: It wasn't me

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 13:40 | 839806 SilverRhino
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William Munny is that you?

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 14:14 | 839891 RafterManFMJ
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Well, I don't have any pets and I don't like my neighbors.  And I've been known to eat tripe, so please pressure cook the guts if you can.  The ball talk I believe we all can do without.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 18:47 | 840607 perchprism
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After reading your silly threats, I junked you.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 18:53 | 840621 akak
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Damn, 36 junks and it wasn't even Leo or Harry!

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 20:04 | 840747 StychoKiller
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Non rompa prego le mie gonadi, grazie!

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 21:47 | 840883 Savyindallas
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Please be assured it wasn't me either. and for the record, I don't even have a dog.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 12:11 | 839534 Bearster
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You must be very young, and haven't read much yet.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 13:23 | 839752 h3m1ngw4y
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totally off limits thinking :-)

it is hoarded - it filters through the population - the former or the later? *g*

500$ per ounce would never do the trick. the revaluation will be done by the physical holders

the currency backed by gold? another fail in due time google "freegold" to gain perspective



Fri, 12/31/2010 - 11:46 | 839463 jbeyer
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Are we really supposed to take this BS seriously when this idiot calls it a "Cadillac converter" (catalytic converter) and pronounces soldering "SOLDering"?


Fri, 12/31/2010 - 11:53 | 839477 Mad Max
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But remember that a blind squirrel sometimes finds a nut, and enough monkeys on typewriters will eventually pound out a GAO report.

Sat, 01/01/2011 - 01:35 | 841176 Dr. Sandi
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enough monkeys on typewriters will eventually pound out a GAO report.

Damn, I think that's where they ALL come from. No wonder they're a little delayed sometimes.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 11:54 | 839478 JonNadler
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that's right if you're going to listen to an idiot about silver, listen to me, at leat am a senior ANALyst for a major PM dealer who doesn't really sell any PM's although we have them, but people don't buy them from us because they're smart and see silver going back to $3. Then you may ask why are we in business? Well, if I answered that I'd have to kill you, or a JP Morgan thug would, I mean I don't get involved with the messy side of the business, that's why I went to college for

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 13:51 | 839834 akak
akak's picture

My my Jonny, don't you sound perky today!  You must have just taken a refeshing dip in one of the ol' Kitco precious metals pools.  Oh no, wait, my mistake ---- we all know that those pools are empty.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 15:33 | 840143 A Nanny Moose
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..or he slept at a Holiday Inn Express last night.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 15:17 | 840094 barkster
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thank you, miss south carolina...

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 15:34 | 840147 VegasBD
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Made me laugh...even with this hangover. thx

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 15:21 | 840104 DoChenRollingBearing
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I hear you about why you went to college...

That's why JP Morgan HIRES thugs.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 17:53 | 840481 strannick
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Mr. Nadler.

The inaccuracies of your gold price predictions for the last decade, along with commentaries penned for the gremlin denizens of fantasia, definately are indicative of college credentials.

I anxiously await your 2011 price forecast.

Would I be presumtuous to assume it calls for sub-1000$ gold when the bubble bursts, based on decreasing Indian jewellry demand, and a resurgent US$ and Treasuries market, despite the fear-mongering of conspiracy theorists?

Please post your 2011 portfolio for us, so we can short it and all get rich.


Fri, 12/31/2010 - 17:59 | 840500 akak
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Would I be presumtuous to assume it calls for sub-1000$ gold when the bubble bursts, based on decreasing Indian jewellry demand, and a resurgent US$ and Treasuries market, despite the fear-mongering of conspiracy theorists?

Strannick, you forgot about all those unsightly piles --- nay, MOUNTAINS --- of scrap gold just littering the landscape!  Why, I just tripped over several of them today already!  Damn barbaric relic!  WHEN will these superstitious peasants realize that the future is going to be made of PAPER?!

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 11:56 | 839487 AnarchoCapitalist
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Thank you. I thought I was hearing it wrong, I had to rewind it twice. I don't understand why people can't just let the facts speak for themselves. Why do they have to overemphasize every single sentence? He has good points, but he completely undermines them with his presentation.

Sat, 01/01/2011 - 12:13 | 841494 Matt
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I think you missed the point of the video. In my opinion, it isn't an informational video; it is an advertisement for a product (his website, not silver).

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 12:49 | 839634 Byte Me
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And the retard also quotes 1950 population as the 1980 figure and proceeds to extrapolate growth % from this erroneous value (1980 pop was around 4.2 Billion).

What other asserted figures are being misrepresented? We do not know. A full audit of his sources would be nice. None is provided.

I'd also question what validity Ag use in solar power especially by 2030, by which time we'll probably be using printed polymers incorporating organic substitutes.

Yes, Ag has many more industrial uses than Au. Big surprise, but it ain't used in cat converters - that's Pd and Ni (and others) - besides cc's are recycled.

Although I would support the 'higher price hypothesis' , this vid has factual errors and the asserted data needs corroboration.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 13:32 | 839754 Red Neck Repugnicant
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The video also claims that above ground stock of gold is up 600% since 1980.

Meanwhile, the Gold Fields Mineral Services Ltd (an independent, London-based consultancy and research company     http://www.gfms.co.uk/index.htm ) asserts that above ground gold stock rises by about 1.7%/year over the past 50 years.  

Disinformation is funny. 

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 18:59 | 840632 perchprism
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I have a plan for your 2011 economic activity:  Blow me.  You'll earn $0.25.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 13:04 | 839693 Red Neck Repugnicant
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Isn't this the same guy who wears goofy American flag shirts and makes the videos for the National Inflation Association?

Or is it someone trying to copy his exact style?

Those videos at NIA are a bit like a Glenn Beck episode.  They start with indisputable truths, then quickly unravel into lunacy and nonsense. 

If you watch those videos, you won't buy precious metals.  You'll buy razor blades and cut your wrists. 

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 13:55 | 839837 akak
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If you watch those videos, you won't buy precious metals.  You'll buy razor blades and cut your wrists. 

Please, RNR --- BUY BUY BUY!!

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 14:58 | 840013 Temporalist
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Yes he is the very NIA video guy, does most of his videos, and is clearly dead set on trying to get people to follow his investment advice, probably trying to start a financial newsletter and have people pay to subscribe to him.

That being said, I still buy silver without the hyperbole, although there may be a hyperinflationary event.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 16:04 | 840222 enobittep
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Yes it is.

These NIA guys are bankster wannabes! Opportunists that are claiming they are on a crusade to inform the public of the coming inflation - yea like anyone with 1/2 a brain couldn't figure out by reading various financial blogs on the web (I.e ZH).

They begin all the reporting with facts and then go into full hyperbol mode.

There gig is getting people panicked and then recommend some pitiful penny silver stock (which they invested in 2 months earlier). The stock jumps over the next few months - at which time they are probably dumping there shares and buying legitimate silver stocks (I.e. Hecla or CDE).

Go to the NIA website and go to stocks. They just did this with Girabaldi Resources Corp. - note the disclaimer regarding the NIA president's investment in this company.

Sat, 01/01/2011 - 01:38 | 841181 Dr. Sandi
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If you watch those videos, you won't buy precious metals.  You'll buy razor blades and cut your wrists.

Not me. I'll cut somebody else's wrists who needs it more. But I like your sharp thinking on the subject.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 11:48 | 839465 dwdollar
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I'm very skeptical.  If it gets close to the price of gold, a lot of that "consumed" silver will be found, melted down, and coined.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 12:30 | 839589 tmosley
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Mining landfills is much more difficult than you seem to think.

Platinum is much more expensive than gold, but only about 18% of the platinum consumed industrially is recovered.  This is because each use is so small it isn't worth it.  Once mines RUN OUT or cost of recovery explodes it might become profitable to do that.  It's going to have to get a LOT higher, though.  Many applications use so little, but do it on a huge scale (think silver sulfadiazene used in babies' eyes, or silver impregnated socks, or catheters.  That silver is absorbed into the body.  What are you going to do, mine sewage for silver?  You'll only get a few ppb if you are lucky.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 13:29 | 839781 Bananamerican
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i don't mind mining sewage if i can find the muthafucka who impregnated my socks!

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 15:39 | 840162 Calmyourself
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Ha,  Happy New Year

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 11:52 | 839469 Cognitive Dissonance
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For the past 6 or 7 years, I've assumed that when the herd finally recognizes the stealth destruction of their fiat paper currency by the powers that be and begin to search for alternatives, Silver will be viewed as more accessible and "affordable" than Gold, at least for the masses. This is why I have concentrated about half of my PM buying in Silver.

It stands to reason that when the panic begins, the average Joe will try to "buy" the "cheapest" hedge. Shaking their belief in the static value of the dollar will be very hard. Thus even as they try to off load their dying dollars, they will still think about them as static and how they can get the most "value" for their FRNs. They have been conditioned to believe "cheaper" is better for them in many things.

Silver will shine for this reason. How long is the real question. If you live by the sword of public opinion and herd mentality, you eventually die by that same sword.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 12:19 | 839549 living on the edge
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I agree with your assessment that the common man will buy silver once the fallacy of an economic recovery is exposed as a fraud. When the masses realize the financial world is crumbling gold and silver will explode with silver leading the way. I don't expect silver to ever have a valuation approaching that of gold and I duly intend to sell my silver in favor of gold at some future point.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 13:04 | 839691 Manipulism
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Selling for what????

$ ????


Fri, 12/31/2010 - 13:21 | 839748 Cognitive Dissonance
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Selling (or bartering) either directly to Gold or whatever can be used as an intermediary that can then be sold for Gold. In this case it doesn't matter what the journey is, just that the destination is eventually Gold.

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