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Will Silver Surge Following The Nationalization Of Bolivia's Silver Mines By Embattled President Evo Morales?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Two weeks ago the precious metals space was closely following the fate of Sumitomo's San Cristobal mine, where a long strike had paralyzed work at the world's third largest producer of silver and sixth-largest producer of zinc. While the strike was eventually resolved with concession to the domestic workers, a far more troubling report from Bolivian daily La-Razon states that Bolivia's president Evo Morales is now planning on expropriating zinc, silver and tin mines sold off by previous governments. Bloomberg reports that "Morales will announce a decree May 1 to “dismantle the privatization model,” said Nicolas Fernandez, a spokesman for state mining company Corp. Minera de Bolivia, known as Comibol. "The government is recovering all the privatized companies,” Fernandez said today in a telephone interview from La Paz. “When the decision is taken, Comibol will be ready to manage these mines.”" Among the contracts to be affected are those with Glencore International AG, Pan American Silver Corp., and most importantly, Coeur d’Alene Mines Corp., which is operator of the San Bartolome mine: the world's largest pure silver mine. Notably San Bartolome and Sumitomo's San Cristobal "account for about 83% of the nearly 1.1M tons of fine silver Bolivia produced in 2009, according to Mining Ministry data" according to The Gold Report. If indeed this news is proven true, and we will know for sure in 16 days, looks for the price of silver to spike considering about 1.33 million kilograms of silver was produced in Bolivia 2009, according to the U.S. Geological Survey: an amount which will likely fall off a cliff following the utter chaos that is unexpected nationalization.

Bloomberg's report on this important development confirms that the potentially affected producers seem to be in a state of denial about this absurdly irrational development:

“Our property title is not subject to expropriation by the government,” Coeur spokesman Tony Ebersole said in e-mailed comments to questions.

Glencore spokesman Simon Buerk declined to comment and Pan American spokeswoman Kettina Cordero didn’t return telephone calls and e-mails seeking comment.

Bolivia produced 430,879 metric tons of zinc, 84,537 tons of lead, 19,581 tons of tin and 1.33 million kilograms of silver in 2009, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

Nationalizing private industries is nothing new for the embattled Morales:

The government of then President Hugo Banzer sold off mining assets such as the Vinto tin smelter in 1999 in a drive to shed money-losing state companies and attract private investment. Morales seized the smelter from Glencore in 2007.

Morales took over gas fields and refineries on May 1, 2006 in a bid to increase state control over Bolivia’s natural resources. Private investment in the industry plunged 69 percent to $271 million in 2009 from $865 million a decade earlier, according to state energy company YPF Bolivianos.

With the political situation in Bolivia deteriorating (read the following update from La Razon on the strikes and blockade gripping La Paz) it is increasingly probably that the country's president will take irrational steps in order to safeguard his image, and supposedly to fill his coffers.

Full report from La-Razon here.

h/t Matt

 

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Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:04 | 1169536 aVian
aVian's picture

bullish for silver

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:14 | 1169578 duncecap rack
duncecap rack's picture

Sucks when you hold PAA calls though.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:48 | 1169723 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

Personally, I think the Capital Research Institute is doing a  lot of good with their approach.  Can't match ZH for pure quantity, but there comes a time for spreading awareness AND planning solutions!

"On Psychology & Markets"

http://www.capitalresearchinstitute.org

More and more people are catching on to the fact that two sets of rules are currently in place, one for the MEGAwealthy (net worth > $100 m), and one for the rest of us.  Besides the issue of the US government’s debt problems,  and spending more than they earn, there is the problem of the US dollar (world reserve fiat currency) on its deathbed, with a privately -owned central bank (the Federal Reserve) that has proven beyond a shadow of a doubt to have ONLY the interests of its private owners in mind.   Not only were the bailouts in 2008 a mistake, they were the largest theft in the history of mankind!  It was the largest reverse Robin Hood story in history!  The rich stealing from the poor to a degree only imagined (and probably salivated over) by the ‘great’ tyrants of the early 20th century, John D Rockefeller and JP Morgan.  Now in the 21st century we get Henry Paulson, Hank Greenberg, Ben Bernanke, Lloyd Blankfein,  Jamie Dimon, etc.

The question left to ask, then, is why haven’t EVEN MORE people woken up to facts, and the dire situation we find ourselves in?  After a long and careful look at this issue, the answer may be surprising to some.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:57 | 1169777 cxl9
cxl9's picture

It was the largest reverse Robin Hood story in history!  The rich stealing from the poor to a degree only imagined

How exactly does one steal vast wealth from the "poor"? Aren't the poor, by defnition, without significant wealth? No, the bailouts were more along the lines of the government and various privileged wealthy insiders stealing from the middle classes and unborn future generations.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 15:25 | 1169874 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

The middle class and unborn future generations = poor, relative to the people who stole the wealth, isn't that right?

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 20:01 | 1170866 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

George Soros and T Boone Pickens = poor, relative to Bill Gates and Warren Buffett, isn't that right?

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 20:03 | 1170867 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

George Soros and T Boone Pickens = poor, relative to Bill Gates and Warren Buffett, isn't that right?

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 15:35 | 1169903 SilverBaron
SilverBaron's picture

What would get you richer: stealing one million dollars from a rich guy, or stealing one dollar from each of three hundred million poor guys?

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 15:56 | 1170017 cxl9
cxl9's picture

I suppose it would depend on the transaction costs.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 16:37 | 1170207 SilverBaron
SilverBaron's picture

There are no transaction costs, remember you are stealing.  Besides if there were transaction costs you would just put those on to the people too.  Call it delivery or transmission tax like they do on the electric bills.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 15:57 | 1170023 mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

Come on, man, my head is still hurting from the damn captcha!  Negative numbers!  WTF?!?

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 16:27 | 1170157 Central Bankster
Central Bankster's picture

Bottom line is counter party risk.  With physical, there is no counterparty.  With any form of paper, any government can steal your "rights" or your claim of ownership.  Pan American Silver has a responsibility to defend their property interest (and that of their shareholders) by all means necessary.  They should consider hiring a private security force to defend their interests.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 20:08 | 1170883 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Yeah.  Here you go "Central Bankster".  Here's your gun.  Go get 'em, tiger!

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 23:23 | 1171308 Central Bankster
Central Bankster's picture

And when the rule of law and private contracts breaks down, what should one do?  You clearly are the type to grab your ankles rather than fight for your rights?  Scum.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:29 | 1169641 CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

I wonder if this means that Obama will invade Bolivia ... you know, to protect the people...

"Tonight Pinky, we take over THE WORLD!"

Regards,

Cooter

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:43 | 1169694 spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

morales is obviously murdering his people, time for operation falcon punch.

 

longer than long john silver, bitchez

 

also btfd for svm, slw, hl, etc

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 15:26 | 1169885 Hugh G Rection
Hugh G Rection's picture

Who gives a shit what Bolivia does, silver is going parabolic anyways. 

 

If they nationalize their coke production then I'll worry.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 22:18 | 1171132 mt paul
mt paul's picture

who gives a shit 

what obama does.. 

long silver

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 02:02 | 1171544 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

COEUR D’ALENE, Idaho--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Coeur d’Alene Mines Corporation (NYSE:CDE - News)(TSX:CDM.to - News) today announced that it has received assurances from the Morales Administration in Bolivia that its San Bartolomé mine is not subject to any proposed nationalization in Bolivia.

“During a meeting Thursday with Bolivian Mining Minister Jose Pimentel, the Minister assured Coeur Manquiri and members of the Federation of Mining Workers Trade Union (FSTMB) that Manquiri will not be nationalized,” said Humberto Rada, President of Coeur South America and Coeur Manquiri, the subsidiary of Coeur that operates San Bartolomé.

Coeur has maintained that its property rights at San Bartolomé are not the subject of expropriation. The Company operates the mine in Potosi where title already belongs to Bolivia and backed by Presidential Supreme Decree.

All surface mining and silver production at San Bartolomé are operating as usual. The labor unions working with San Bartolomé management have openly denounced any nationalization and expressed their support of Manquiri as have the mining Cooperatives in Potosi, who are a strong social and political influence in Bolivia.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:05 | 1169539 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Where's Francisco D'Anconia when you need him?

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:10 | 1169563 colddirt
colddirt's picture

+1

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:12 | 1169570 Dagny Taggart
Dagny Taggart's picture

LOL

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:16 | 1169581 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

In theaters tomorrow.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:15 | 1169583 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Not in Lubbock :(

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:20 | 1169593 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

I thought everything was bigger in TX...even the movie theathers (or is that only the mega-churches).

Tmos if I were in Lubbock next time I was in TX I'd take you out for some suds.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:36 | 1169680 tmosley
tmosley's picture

We've got two large theaters, and they are building a mega-theater now.  But none of them are showing AS.  It's a travesty they aren't opening it to a larger release.

I have a feeling that before long, I'll be able to amble into the completed mega theater, buy a beer, and get the whole complex as change.  Then I'll screen the full trilogy, and invite the whole ZH crew for beers (the mega-theater has two bars in it--awesome).

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:50 | 1169735 long juan silver
long juan silver's picture

Lubbock! It's no wonder you're miserable.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:55 | 1169771 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Awww, does the butthurt faggot not like the second lowest cost of living college town in the US?

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 15:19 | 1169849 long juan silver
long juan silver's picture

Can't you have a conversation without introducing your sexual proclivities? BTW I live on a beach that has palm trees.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 15:24 | 1169868 tmosley
tmosley's picture

lol, you don't even know what you're talking about.  Why don't you get out of here.  And stop coming back with new names, you idiot.  You don't fool ANYONE with that schtick.

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=butthurt

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=faggot

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 17:47 | 1170492 akak
akak's picture

Was that Mothman, or Balding_Snails?

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 17:54 | 1170523 tmosley
tmosley's picture

William the Bastard, and his innumerable other sock puppets, all the way back to "MeTarzanUjane", at least.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 17:56 | 1170529 akak
akak's picture

Pathetic, worthless piece of shit lowlife trolls.

They deserve to be shot.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 15:15 | 1169828 CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

I was born in Texas and lived there most of my life. I can't express how great the people are (native Texans) and what a wonderful environment it is to work (taxes, etc).

People can Texas bash all they want, but it doesn't change the facts.

Regards,

Cooter

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 15:21 | 1169864 long juan silver
long juan silver's picture

I love Matamoros-Reynosa-Monterrey area. You like thrills? Ever wonder what kind of man you really are? Go there some weekend. Leave the wife and kids home.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 15:34 | 1169916 CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

So you cherry pick a fairly small area, which lacks security primarily because our govt would rather invade other countries than secure our own borders, as being representative of the the second largest state in the union?

Regards,

Cooter

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 15:59 | 1170033 Shell Game
Shell Game's picture

Lived in Texas for five years. Absolutely loved it.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 20:39 | 1170932 Rick64
Rick64's picture

Thats in Mexico not Texas.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 15:55 | 1170004 I Got Worms
I Got Worms's picture

Git yer guns up!

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 16:03 | 1170052 AR15AU
AR15AU's picture

I didn't know...  just got tickets... thanks

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:34 | 1169652 AldoHux_IV
AldoHux_IV's picture

Well done sir.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:43 | 1169711 mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

At a party ?

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:06 | 1169542 Rektors
Rektors's picture

First post...

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 15:37 | 1169920 The Profit Prophet
The Profit Prophet's picture

You've been registered for 25 weeks without a post!!!......I wish I could junk you twice.

Welcome to "The List".

T.E.I.N. everyone!

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:07 | 1169548 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

questionable selloff in other miners with no risk to bolivia situation

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:15 | 1169575 Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

No wonder CDE is tanking.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:23 | 1169606 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

i think their san bartolome mine did 6.7 mil ozs last year

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:32 | 1169644 Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

Wonder if we'll punch through $42 on this fine day.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:27 | 1169633 JuicyTheAnimal
JuicyTheAnimal's picture

How much silver is owed to SLW from Bolivia mines?  Is this what's holding their share price back?

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 16:40 | 1170235 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

guessing that the rise of metal means collapse of paper. He has a country without paper, being pronged by Bechtel. Water next.  Might even be why Evo took control like Iceland did. He appears to get it.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:07 | 1169549 ciscokid
ciscokid's picture

Silver is already going parabolic, this will only give it more wings.
FUBM.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:07 | 1169554 Out9922
Out9922's picture

Bullish for the Dow

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:36 | 1169675 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

The Dow can no longer be killed with conventional weapons.

 

 

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:09 | 1169556 43 Steelie
43 Steelie's picture

.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:11 | 1169558 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

He decided to do this after getting off the phone with his buddy Hugo...?

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/41179000/jpg/_41179088_mor_cha_ap2...

 

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:11 | 1169559 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

peru is also possibly turning left (huge silver interests)

check out EPU post initial election

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 15:13 | 1169816 nonclaim
nonclaim's picture

Peru was center-right and will fall since both candidates in the run-off are leftists. Colombia has turned left-of-center but few are aware of that. Chile is the last man standing... how long they will resist?

Now, Brazil in intervening in the administration of previously privatized companies, imposing (behind curtains) but not always successfully yes-man CEOs. This means, in a twisted way, nationalizing the company but leaving the burden of any wrongdoing to shareholders.

Argentina is increasing gov voting rights in company boards it "invests in", which was capped at 5% (for good or worse). Now Bolivia is likely taking over the mines.

At this point, investing in Latin America is a big uncertainty, to say the least.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:09 | 1169561 kaiten
kaiten's picture

Time for US to nationalize the FED.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:19 | 1169587 Boxed Merlot
Boxed Merlot's picture

Why nationalize the fed when it's so much easier to nationalize the citizens and their offspring for generations to come?

 

Besides, nationalizing the fed will have zero result without correspondingly abolishing the irs and simultaneously beginning the minting and circulation of intrinsically valuable coinage and non interest bearing US treasury notes as legal tender.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:12 | 1169564 The Axe
The Axe's picture

Peru  next?

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:41 | 1169692 oddjob
oddjob's picture

Cuntree risk Bitchez.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:13 | 1169566 Pepe
Pepe's picture

Walt Disney is preparing a new tape: "Bin Laden seeks refuge in Bolivia" and what will happen next you already know. Oh  also Donald Duck is running for president

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:11 | 1169567 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

There is nothing unexpected about this or any forthcoming nationalization of resources, unless you are Doug Casey, who writes non-stop about which tin-hat politico is "mining friendly."

As the ongoing global collapse gains momentum, there will be more and more wealth grabs so that those in power, remain there yet another day. Democracy demands it.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 23:30 | 1170208 Sopra Tutt1
Sopra Tutt1's picture

I was surprised to see Casey Research recommending PAA in their latest newsletter.

I sold my PAA shares a week ago at 38.10$ (I didn't believe it will go up 2$ more in such a short time) after I read on ZH about big connections between PAA and JPM. Now I'm happy I did it, as it went down 4.5$ in a day. I'm a buyer at $32.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:15 | 1169577 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

 Silver will surge. The big price runups are coming from China right now; there's, oh, I dunno, another hundred million chinese or so who haven't gotten around to putting their $40 in savings in silver; but they're working on it. Basically silver will surge if Bolivia evaporates, consolidates, or does nothing whatsoever.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:20 | 1169602 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Bolivia...far as you know, this could be the garden spot of the whole south america!

$100 BennieBux for anyone who gets that movie line.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:36 | 1169661 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Butch, or Sundance?

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:35 | 1169666 duncecap rack
duncecap rack's picture

Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid?

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:37 | 1169667 Max Hunter
Max Hunter's picture

LOL.. Butch and the Kid...

Can you send me Monopoly Money instead.. Me and my GF play all the time and seemed to need more currency.. :)

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:44 | 1169701 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

OK I'll send each of you $100 Monopoly bux or Bennie Bux, all about the same real value. Monopoly bux might be more valuable since its part of a fun game!

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:27 | 1169635 Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

Basically silver will surge if Bolivia evaporates, consolidates, or does nothing whatsoever.

That's what the government of Bolivia says:

La posible rescisión de contratos con firmas extranjeras que operan en proyectos mineros estatales no tendría un gran impacto en los niveles de inversión extranjera directa en el sector. Así lo señaló el ex ministro de Minería Dionisio Garzón.

The price of silver will continue to rise no dount on Chinese dip-demand.

In Argentina (which means land of silver) people say, 'tienes plata?', as in do you have silver? Not, 'do you have cotten-and-linen Benny Confetti?'

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:14 | 1169579 Just Observing
Just Observing's picture

Coeur d’Alene spokesman Tony Ebersol clearly doesn't live in the real world.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:49 | 1169693 truont
truont's picture

http://translate.google.com/translate?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.la-razon.com%2Fversion.php%3FArticleId%3D128575%26EditionId%3D2497&sl=es&tl=en&hl=&ie=UTF-8

Coeur d'Alene may be right.

Evo Morales is only going to take back certain mines that were once operated by the state but then leased the mining rights to at least 3 foreign mining companies.

"The miners claimed that some companies or mines that were previously the state still not been recovered, the commitment (in the agreement that was achieved in this sector) is to be recovered (the mines), "Morales said Tuesday the president for a press conference. "

Coeur d'Alene claims none of their properties fall under this plan.  We shall see...

 

Here is another article:

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/xinhua/2011-04-13/content_2289510.html

 

Bolivian President Evo Morales on Tuesday said he will continue the nationalization of mines that had been owned by the state and later were privatized.

Morales told a press conference here that this is aimed to deepen the production system of the country.

He did not mention what mines would be nationalized, but said the move will be carried out through a supreme decree to be issued on on May 1.

"We are going to recover some of the mines that before belonged to the State and now are in private hands," he said, adding that those mines which always have been private will not be affected by the measure.

"We are going to respect the private property. This is stated in the Constitution of Bolivia," Morales said.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 17:07 | 1170353 tiger7905
tiger7905's picture

From the chinadaily article, "in the 90's there were 23,000 workers in the mining industry". I wonder how many employee's there are now in private hands?

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 23:29 | 1171324 capitallosses
capitallosses's picture

I was wondering why my CDE tanked today. Hope you are right. Otherwise I demand Obummer scramble our jets over Bolivia now to protect the future tax revenues from my future gains.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:16 | 1169588 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

lol!  morales, reportedly feeling a wee bit "gordon brownish" as silver et. al. scream higher, petulantly cries:  "Do over!"

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:23 | 1169605 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

haha...no backsies.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:29 | 1169642 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Maybe Bolivia can hedge it with a new triple inverse coca ETF.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:29 | 1169603 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Silver has been surging for 8 months primarily because the clowns at Elliott Wave International have been predicting it should be tanking for 16 months

Rob Prechter has given up predicting the PM's having been wiped across the floor by everyone in the investment community (he hasn't come last, he actually fell flat on his face on the start line way back in 2009). 

His joke side-kick Steven Hochberg who writes the Short Term Update (better known as 'Shorty Talks Shit' by long suffereing EW subscribers) has been pegging '5' top finishing waves on Gold and Silver (and Dow, and S&P and Nasdaq) throughout 2010 right through to 2 weeks ago (wrong every week of every month since May 2010). Yes Shorty Talks Shit now thinks Silver could blow off and has joined the investment community after years in an Elliott Wave dreamworld (you need a Doctor Steven you delusional bloody idiot) 

Elliott Wave International: the biggest pile of crap in investing (predictions with a 95% failure rate)

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:33 | 1169656 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

It amazes me how these people (and many chartists in general) refuse to acknowledge the existence of Bernanke's Wave Machine. Sure, they see the waves, but since they have no idea how they formed, they assume it's all natural and apply their rules accordingly.

At times I have to wonder if they are really that stupid, or complicit in these disinfo campaigns.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 15:31 | 1169869 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

it is possible that Elliott Wave International are just delusional with their heads so far up their arses (Elliott Wave counts) that they possibly cannot see how wrong they always are... but judging by their constant mis-selling and gross mis-representation of their ability with their 'Free Updates' i think they are just plain frauds 

The Free Updates 'hook' Clubbers (who are not paying Subscribers) with a constant stream of mis'representation at EWI's ability to predict. The material they put in the Free Updates are limited because they get so few predictions (barely 5%) right.

Paying for these services they hook you into with promises of accurate predictions you get a totally different perspective as they constantly cock up, throw their last crappy charts in the bin, start the wave counts again, start two wave counts, predict it "could go up.. but could go down". 

The other week their European Editor, Chris Carolan, was sitting on the fence (again) saying the EuroStox "could go up.. could go down.. but we'll wait for stronger selling before we decide". The Eurostox dropped over 5% subscribers missing the opportunity sitting on the fence with splinters in his arse, Chris Carolan. But the cheeky shit came out the next week mis-representing his sitting on the fence position with patting himself on the back he'd predicting it would drop!!!   

Same happened mid-March with Carolans Euro/USD prediction (along with everyone at EWI for over a year) for a Dollar rally. Instead of dropping to $1.25 as they predicted the Dollar rallyed to $1.44. Once again the sneeky shit said nothing for weeks (hid under the bed no doubt) then came out with another Dollar rally prediction (bit fuking late for anyone who lost on your last pathetic prediction dipshit!)

The whole EWI crew are sneeky, slippery and untrustworthy as they grossly mis-represent their (in)ability ....they are total crap at predicting where the markets go. Fact.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:51 | 1169757 Jack Sheet
Jack Sheet's picture

@ZG

right on. As I recollect Ralph Nelson Elliott died a pauper. No idea why Prickter goes on propagating pure crap as the road to riches.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 15:14 | 1169832 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

Because there are imbeciles out there who will pay him for this less-than-worthless bullshit.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 15:37 | 1169932 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Jack Sheet  -  Prechter is very good at some things like knowing the Fed and understanding the impact of debt etc. But the Elliott Wave theory is absolute fuking rubbish. It would take Prechter a few days of research (which he's always doing) to run some stat's on his EWI predictions for it to dawn on him his predictions are crap, that he is constantly mis-directing his Subscribers in the wrong direction and losing them money and for him to refund all Subscribers like the honourable man he is for all fees in 2010 because EWI was total shit throughout 2010.

Prechter couyld then focus on his worthy Socionomics Institute which does have predictive ability (unlike Elliott Waves)

Bam_Man  -  yes Elliott Wave is a magnet for niave investors like myself just starting out. My private bank recommended them and have probably made a packet out of me from the mis-direction by Prechters team of always wrong muppets! 

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 15:46 | 1169969 Howard_Beale
Howard_Beale's picture

"Silver has been surging for 8 months primarily because the clowns at Elliott Wave International have been predicting it should be tanking for 16 months"

That's why silver has been going up? Your opening line there is quite the statement!

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 19:21 | 1170763 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Silver goes up for real reasons... Elliott Waves are delusional chart patterns not based on reality... Prechter and his clowns are the greatest contrarians in the market, contrary to reality, hence Silver goes the opposite direction to an Elliott Wave prediction .... Silver goes up because EW have been predicting it should go down ...simple!

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:22 | 1169609 spartan117
spartan117's picture

Jim Sinclair is/was right!  You need to take care of the benefactors in your host country as well as your shareholders.  If you screw them out of their rightful share of the profits, they will eventually screw you right back. 

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:37 | 1169683 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

i think Jim Sinclair and Rob Prechter were having a battle of wits reading between the lines of their writings. It was a 'No Contest'. Jim wiped the floor with Prechter without breaking a sweat.

I remember well Jims wesbite saying Gold was about to go into a "parabolic shift". Sure enough both Prechter and his clown side-kick Steven Hochberg came out the same week poo-pooing the parabolic shift. They predicted once again Gold topping and once again they fell over their big size 19 clown boots falling flat on their big red noses.

Following week the Ellioticians (Idioticians) came out not with parabolic shift but with a "blow off" (ie. a parabolic shift they said was never going to happen).

Jim has knocked all the Elliott Wave clowns out of the ball park and into the history books. Prechter needs to pack up and stop (mis)selling shit 

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:54 | 1169768 savagegoose
savagegoose's picture

you cry " the sky is falling " long enough, eventually the sky will fall.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 15:39 | 1169939 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Yes, Prechters goons are full of themselves enough being wrong throughout 2010 the sky was falling in... fuck knows how much full of shit they will be when they get it right 1 time in 14 months!!!!!!! 

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 15:16 | 1169842 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

Evo's dirty little pockets have been lined, so have the army's.  The government unloaded the properties because it was incapable of operating them profitably in the first place.  As Bolivia bailed on the Washington Convention, look for him to be retired with 12 months of the properties running a loss again if silver spikes ($100), or 6 months if the domestic economy collapses.  The Calvo Doctrine is only allowed if you have a seat at the big kids table, and Evo doesn't.  Rinse, repeat.   

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:22 | 1169610 Darth Silver
Darth Silver's picture

just another reason to add to the reason(s) why silver will continue to achieve new heights.

 

MSM's non stop bubble articles could be written by a 2nd grader. 

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:26 | 1169626 tickhound
tickhound's picture

Will Silver Surge blah-blah, blah-blah, blah-blah, blah?

Yes.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:22 | 1169612 pazmaker
pazmaker's picture

Evo"the cell phone" Morales does have an alliance with Chavez, they are best buddies....we shall see!

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:24 | 1169618 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

i love silver, coke head bolivian president thank you

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:25 | 1169623 Pegasus Muse
Pegasus Muse's picture

My paper gains in PAAS just went pooof.  Still above break even though even if I get stopped out at $38.  Too bad.  Pan American is a good miner and a solid producer.     

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:29 | 1169638 Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

Tell me about it.. I got raped with First Majestic (AG) Monday and Tuesday.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:41 | 1169698 JailBank
JailBank's picture

I was there with AG as well. Really got destroyed.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:44 | 1169707 Zmelli
Zmelli's picture

I picked up some AG yesterday for $21.50 per share, I did not know they were part of this situation?

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:56 | 1169731 Pegasus Muse
Pegasus Muse's picture

They're not.  AG's mines are in Mexico.

"First Majestic Silver Corp. is committed to building a senior Silver producing mining company based on an aggressive development and acquisition plan with a focus on Mexico. The Company presently owns and operates three producing silver mines in Mexico; the La Parrilla Silver Mine, the San Martin Silver Mine and the La Encantada Silver Mine. Production from these three mines is anticipated to be over 6.5 million ounces of silver in 2010."

http://www.firstmajestic.com/s/Home.asp 

I own AG too.  It is very volatile.  The Hedge Funds really like to short the stock.  That's why it was down hard Mon & Tues.  But then it recovered nicely yesterday; closed up 12% on the day. 

The miners tend to be 3X more volatile than the bullion because of their leverage to the metals price and due to the additional risk (geopolitical, operational, etc). 

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 15:46 | 1169968 Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

Good price. Man, AG been volitile.

Not even Molycorp shakes that much.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:32 | 1169655 InconvenientCou...
InconvenientCounterParty's picture

agreed.

I dumped 100% of holdings outside North America though. Is "insourcing" a word yet?

 

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:35 | 1169670 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Meh, if NA miners aren't nationalized directly, they will be "wind-fall" taxed to death.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 15:39 | 1169923 fiddler_on_the_roof
fiddler_on_the_roof's picture

This is just the starting on Govt takeover of mines. Then Australia/SA/USA/Canada will all follow just like China already did. ANOTHER and FOA predicated this more than a decade ago - a day will come when Govt's will never allow mines to create money. They will force mines to sell at a slight profit over production cost and they will keep the Gold.

 

All you silver mining shares and futures paper will burn in a big ball of fire. Only physical Gold will escape. I don't have faith in Silver, just like I don't have faith in Iron/Copper, they all get consumed.

Sat, 04/16/2011 - 02:23 | 1175419 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

> They will force mines to sell at a slight profit over production cost and they will keep the Gold.

Fine, I'll take my risks. I hope shareholders will have the right to purchase at those prices.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:25 | 1169624 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

In other news:

The Japanese government is starting to collapse...

Japan's Kan Faces Calls to Quit Over Handling of Disasters

Naoto Kan is facing new calls for his resignation from senior opposition and ruling party lawmakers angered by his response to the country's earthquake and tsunami-triggered nuclear crisis.

http://www.voanews.com/english/news/asia/east-pacific/Japans-Kan-Faces-C...

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:29 | 1169632 pazmaker
pazmaker's picture

Thousands of demonstrators surround the residence of Evo Morales and blockade La Paz

 

http://www.globovision.com/news.php?nid=184679

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:33 | 1169659 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

muslim brotherhood everywhere!  sarkozy on phone w/ bilary, planning no fly zone as i type...

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 16:05 | 1170055 mt paul
mt paul's picture

muslim brotherhood 

long silver 

to 50.00 $

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:42 | 1169697 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

And like every other anti-gov demonstration, they just want a bigger share of the loot.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:31 | 1169640 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

doorbell rings. postman hands homeowner tightly sealed package. opens package to find tubes of 2011 silver eagles. puts in safe, checks price of silver. new highs. reserves table at flemings with other merry band of gold and silver holders.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:36 | 1169673 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Evo shouldn't be opening any tightly sealed packages

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:39 | 1169679 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

true.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:44 | 1169705 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

wanted:  food taster.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:45 | 1169721 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Try Plataforma (or other Churruscaria) if you want A LOT of cooked animal flesh.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:31 | 1169647 Phillips Capital
Phillips Capital's picture

Thanks.... i could not figure out wtf was going on with CDE. my stop took me out thankfully, it was killin me. Bullish for silver, bearish for CDE.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:41 | 1169700 Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

EXPROPRIATION BITCHEZZZZZ!!

It feels so good to be Evo-mo-full of shit

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:46 | 1169714 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

+++!  quoth the raven?

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 20:29 | 1170917 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

"EXPROPRIATION BITCHEZZZZZ!!"

Wow.  Nobody could see that coming.

I was worried about gold confiscation and then ...... WHAM, BAM, IT'S EVO!!!!!

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:36 | 1169677 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Hey wheres Robo and the other silver grouches who are all fully loaded now with $25 silver puts? 

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:40 | 1169687 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

robo got a new pair of yoga tights. he's primping in front of the mirror.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:38 | 1169688 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Trading in their blinders for a more powerful model.  They can't keep out the inconvenient information with the ones they have now.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:48 | 1169724 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Ah yes. Well I was worried that Robo had strangled himself in a tragic LuLuLemon wardrobe malfunction.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 15:24 | 1169875 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

"MethMan, paging Mr. MethMan...

Your broker says you have a margin call on your silver shorts..."

 

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 15:19 | 1169846 knukles
knukles's picture

Robo?  Howse about Blythe?
Getting that large hole in the stomach, tight constricted chest, woozie, dizzy feeling, lots of confusing thoughts, disorganized, running through the head, anxiety levels at extremely high pitch, realizing only later that been holding it for a while too long and really need to piss, cold sweats break out as the CFO and comptroller stroll onto the trading floor, walking directly toward her, no missing the eye contact, secretary picks up the phone and overhears "Yes, Mr. Dimon." maybe?

Bad day.  I know, I've had 'em, too.

And good days, like about a month or two ago, I mentioned that after a big silver dip that Blythe would look back and wish she'd just bit the bullet and covered, only to be excoriated, flamed from here to eternity by some unknown, never to be seen again who'd been a member for over a year, personal attack (like bad vibes about my top knot, intelligence, whatthefuckever) as if he/she/it/Troll knew me personally.... troll ID resurrected for the moment? 

LOL

Form those of us long PSLV, we thank you Evo!

And just wait till the market's attention shifts back to deliverable in Gold, again.  LOL.  From those of us long PHYS, too.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 23:58 | 1171371 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Howse about Blythe?
Getting that large hole in the stomach, tight constricted chest, woozie, dizzy feeling, lots of confusing thoughts, disorganized, running through the head, anxiety levels at extremely high pitch, realizing only later that been holding it for a while too long and really need to piss, cold sweats break out as the CFO and comptroller stroll onto the trading floor, walking directly toward her, no missing the eye contact, secretary picks up the phone and overhears "Yes, Mr. Dimon."

Is she young enough to still have PMS?? :>D

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:37 | 1169681 Zmelli
Zmelli's picture

I own a core position in ETF SIL and it is being dragged down because of this. PAAS and CDE are components of the SIL. If this keeps up I may sell this ETF and try to hold miners that are not subject to Dicks on South America 

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:40 | 1169696 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Im not buying anything any longer that cant be put in my gun safe. 

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:48 | 1169726 Zmelli
Zmelli's picture

Thinking about doing the same, I am just not sure when to pull the trigger.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:49 | 1169730 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

women now hoarding favorite shades of nail polish and enamel.  where does it end?

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 15:43 | 1169952 fiddler_on_the_roof
fiddler_on_the_roof's picture

you will lose all your money. if not today in a few years. see my post above.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:39 | 1169682 JacktheTab
JacktheTab's picture

If true, definitely seems bullish for silver. (Clearly I bailed out of AGQ too damn soon!)But I'm also wondering how this new information fits with TD's post the other day regarding a GS-led beatdown on both gold and silver?

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:38 | 1169686 camoes
camoes's picture

BTFEMD (Evo Morales Dip) on silver miners, bitchez!!!!

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:44 | 1169706 Phillips Capital
Phillips Capital's picture

More like, Go long SLW, HL, SSRI and SVM while going short PAAS and CDE for a "bullish silver/bearish socialism" play :) 

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:42 | 1169695 youngman
youngman's picture

you can kiss those silver producers good bye..less production...more corruption....man I love a third world socialist country..

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:44 | 1169708 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Coming soon, to a western regime near you!

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:44 | 1169703 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

More proof that this PM mining sector is flat out the worst.

Gold bugs are the most unlucky group of stock investors.

Where else would you find the underlying commodity screaming to new highs yet these PM stocks are blowtorched 6% - 9% in one fell swoop?

Way too much risk.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:44 | 1169713 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

So says RainbowTrader while gold is at all time highs. Gold investors are not stock investors, not me anyway.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:46 | 1169717 gatorontheloose
gatorontheloose's picture

thank you for sharing your unique point of view

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:50 | 1169738 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

worst trader in the usa. the walls are closing in ever closer in his apartment.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:50 | 1169746 Zmelli
Zmelli's picture

The mining stocks have been naked shorted and there is a Lawsuit in the making that should help stop this then the mining shares will amaze everyone. "according to Bob Chapman"

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 20:34 | 1170924 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Miners blow.  Physical rocks.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:47 | 1169718 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Now you know why the smart money stays in retail stocks and avoid the PM space like the plague....

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:48 | 1169727 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

and you own an ira full of gold stocks. only man in usa to lose money in gold and silver. lol

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:50 | 1169749 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

LMAO

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 15:01 | 1169786 Infinite QE
Infinite QE's picture

Now we know why the bank retired him

Sat, 04/16/2011 - 06:14 | 1175508 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

Did you mean retired or retarded?

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:48 | 1169732 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

I guess you can't see that the sector has been suppressed irrationally and should explode.  It's not like the price of edible iPads is rising like the PMs.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:47 | 1169733 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Smart money' is in retail stocks which have lost real purchasing power yet will be hit with a 50% cap gains tax? Doesnt sound so smart to me.

Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:50 | 1169751 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

he threw up 3 retail stocks on another thread saying they outperformed us. i destroyed him with simple comparisons yoy. the guy is a brazen liar.

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