Will Those Bold Enough to Buy Gold When the Fed Folds Wind Up in the Cold?

This is an article that is three months old, that references an article that is a year and a half old, all warning about the inevitable chain reaction that is occurring today as governments pay the price for rescuing banks by burdening tax payer funded governments with private bank problems. Stagflation baby! As predicted, and as is occurring, in damn near real time. Of added note, it also shows that some guys who have not run the numbers are putting more faith in gold than it empircally deserves. This is bound to start a fight, for I know gold is the "Trade du Jour" among the financial blogging crowd. Hey, don't shoot the messenger. I'm just relaying what the fundamental/historical crystal ball has shared with me.

This post was the beginning of the Sovereign Debt Crisis series in January, whose entire theme is practically internal deflation and currency debasement (where possible). Below, there are links to the entire crisis, heavy duty premium material (for those that care to have access to the heavy analysts material) and links to subscribe to my blog). Notice how the overseeing thing went right along as anticipated. On to the repost...

Deflation, Inflation or Stagflation - You Be the Judge!

In continuing the rant on the possibility of the US entering a stagflationary environment, as was hinted by Alcoa's quarterly  report (see "Is My Warning of the Risks of a Stagflationary Environment Coming to Fore?"), I have decided to graphically illustrate the historically most successful inflation hedges. Click graphic below to enlarge.

For those "gold bugs" who have never ran the numbers, gold offers less inflation protection than your house does. The same goes for WTI crude and probably most other categories of oil.

The number one inflation hedge appears to be apartment buildings, followed very closely by other classes of commercial real estate, with MSCI emerging markets coming in a close second. I can assure you that the supply/demand imbalance, credit environment, fundamental and macro situations will prevent apartments (oversupply and softening rents from condo conversion competition among other things, driving up cap rates) and most CRE from taking off anytime soon. The short to medium term direction for most of that stuff is down (see  CRE 2010 Overview for the 42 page white paper). 

So, if the traditional inflation hedges do not point to inflation, but input costs are going up while real assets are deflating, what do we have???

From "Economic contractions AND rising prices, dare Reggie utter the "I" word - Enter a global phenomenon", we get:

Stagflation is an economic situation in which inflation and economic stagnation occur simultaneously and remain unchecked for a period of time.[1] The portmanteau "stagflation" is generally attributed to British politician Iain Macleod, who coined the term in a speech toParliament in 1965.[2][3][4] The concept is notable partly because, in postwar macroeconomic theory, inflation and recession were regarded as mutually exclusive, and also because stagflation has generally proven to be difficult and costly to eradicate once it gets started.

Economists offer two principal explanations for why stagflation occurs. First, stagflation can result when an economy is slowed by an unfavorable supply shock, such as an increase in the price of oil in an oil importing country, which tends to raise prices at the same time that it slows the economy by making production less profitable.[5][6][7] This type of stagflation presents a policy dilemma because most actions to assist with fighting inflation worsen economic stagnation and vice versa. Second, both stagnation and inflation can result from inappropriate macroeconomic policies. For example, central banks can cause inflation by permitting excessive growth of the money supply,[8] and the government can cause stagnation by excessive regulation of goods markets and labor markets;[9] together, these factors can cause stagflation. Both types of explanations are offered in analyses of the global stagflation of the 1970s: it began with a huge rise in oil prices, but then continued as central banks used excessively stimulative monetary policy to counteract the resulting recession, causing a runaway wage-price spiral.[10]

John Maynard Keynes wrote in The Economic Consequences of the Peace that governments printing money and using price controls were causing a combination of inflation and economic stagnation in Europe after World War I. Stagflation was also a very serious macroeconomic problem in the 1970s. In contrast to central bank responses to the oil price spike of the 1970s where similar policies were pursued on both sides of the Atlantic, the 21st century began with America going one way to fight recession and Europe going the other way to fight inflation.

 From the "The Butterfly is released!":

The decline in consumer spending has compelled many companies to reduce production. Toyota Motors Corporation reduced its auto sales forecast for 2009 to 2.1% from 5.6%. The company projected auto sales to be 10.4 million vehicles in 2009, but rising gasoline oil prices are likely to dent demand. Toyota expects sales to decrease 10% in North America, its biggest market.

The cost of most inputs has risen sharply in the last one year. Although prices have come down from record highs and are declining m-o-m, they continue to remain high on a y-o-y basis. Prices of iron and steel, which are essential components of manufacturing, increased 16.1% y-o-y in August 2008. Prices of other commodities also rose globally, leading to a sharp rise in input costs. Various indices in the UK are pointing toward a trend of declining sales. The non-store retail & repair index fell 3.2% m-o-m in July 2008. Falling sales are further pressurizing the margins of industrial companies.

  

Source: Government Website

The price of crude oil, one of the major inputs for manufacturing companies, increased at a rapid pace in 2007. Although the price has cooled down (falling 44% from its all-time high) as of September 11, 2008, it continues to remain high (37.4%) on a y-o-y basis. The increase in crude prices has pushed the cost of production higher.

The high cost of production can be passed by the manufacturer to the retailer only in certain cases. Various companies are evaluating the extent to which they can pass higher prices to end-customers. However, industrial companies would be affected in both cases-higher prices would weaken demand, while the increased cost of production would hurt margins. In such a scenario, maintaining a fine balance between the two is an extremely challenging task for industrial companies. Decline in sales due to increased cost (input and borrowing) is exerting pressure on industrial companies.

The article above is about a year old, but still drives home valid points. This material is a pre-cursor to the subscription material I will be releasing to subscribers illustrating the concentrations of sovereign risk around the globe. Remember, just because you transfer private risk to the government doesn't mean it disappears. There are pockets of risks in the usual suspects, but certain banks in certain areas have actually acted like sponges, concentrating risks in places where nobody really wants it. Now, back to the stagflation rant...

 

As you can see, UK inflation is trending down, but you can rest assured that many input costs will trend up, as in the diagram from the "butterfly". Spain, Ireland and Switzerland suffer from outright deflation, but will probably not be spared higher input costs as well.

 

Economic growth doesn't look very promising in any case. The EU is a dead-zone for the time being.

Very few in the EU can afford the result of higher input costs on the back of sagging GDP. The jobs just aren't there.

 

Does the CDS market see what I see?

So, what about the US and North America?

GDP is expected to increase, but relatively anemic compared to other so-called recoveries. Some expect a double dip recession, I believe the recovery is really just the masked effects of the government literally purchasing GDP points, paying $1 for every 30 cents worth of recovery.

As you can see, as in the EU, we cannot afford price spikes in anything. Higher input costs will simply lead to lower profitability, for price in-elasticity is here. People couldn't afford to pay more if they wanted to. Credit and income are way, way down. This means that companies will have to eat higher input costs since they can't pass them on. Translation: those sky high S&P earnings forecasts are fantasy, at best. Even if fantasy were to transform to reality, the stock market has already priced in la la land.

Inflation is expected to be tame. Stagflation is the threat.

I will walk through all of the world markets in the next week or so, and culminate the study with the banks that I feel are most at risk from the weakness in various sovereign states. The most "at risk" banks will be for subscribers, but there are quite a few that I will share publicly.

For the complete Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis series, see:

1.     The Coming Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis - introduces the crisis and identified it as a pan-European problem, not a localized one.

2.     What Country is Next in the Coming Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis? - illustrates the potential for the domino effect

3.     The Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis: If I Were to Short Any Country, What Country Would That Be.. - attempts to illustrate the highly interdependent weaknesses in Europe's sovereign nations can effect even the perceived "stronger" nations.

4.     The Coming Pan-European Soverign Debt Crisis, Pt 4: The Spread to Western European Countries

5.     The Depression is Already Here for Some Members of Europe, and It Just Might Be Contagious!

6.     The Beginning of the Endgame is Coming???

7.     I Think It's Confirmed, Greece Will Be the First Domino to Fall 

8.     Smoking Swap Guns Are Beginning to Litter EuroLand, Sovereign Debt Buyer Beware!

9.     Financial Contagion vs. Economic Contagion: Does the Market Underestimate the Effects of the Latter?

10.   "Greek Crisis Is Over, Region Safe", Prodi Says - I say Liar, Liar, Pants on Fire! 

11.   Germany Finally Comes Out and Says, "We're Not Touching Greece" - Well, Sort of...

12.   The Greece and the Greek Banks Get the Word "First" Etched on the Side of Their Domino

13.   As I Warned Earlier, Latvian Government Collapses Exacerbating Financial Crisis

14.   Once You Catch a Few EU Countries "Stretching the Truth", Why Should You Trust the Rest?

15.   Lies, Damn Lies, and Sovereign Truths: Why the Euro is Destined to Collapse!

16.   Ovebanked, Underfunded, and Overly Optimistic: The New Face of Sovereign Europe

17.   Moody's Follows Suit Behind Our Analysis and Downgrades 4 Greek Banks

The EU Has Rescued Greece From the Bond Vigilantes,,, April Fools!!!

Premium Subscription research for the following sovereign states and their respective domiciled banks at risk are available for immediate download.

LATEST SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS SUBSCRIPTION CONTENT

• Spain public finances projections_033010 
  (Global Macro, Trades & Strategy)
• UK Public Finances March 2010
  (Global Macro, Trades & Strategy)
• Italy public finances projection
  (Global Macro, Trades & Strategy)
• Greece Public Finances Projections 
  (Global Macro, Trades & Strategy)
• Banks exposed to Central and Eastern Europe
  (Commercial & Investment Banks)
• Greek Banking Fundamental Tear Sheet
  (Commercial & Investment Banks)
• Italian Banking Macro-Fundamental Discussion Note
  (Commercial & Investment Banks)
• Spanish Banking Macro Discussion Note
  (Commercial & Investment Banks)
• China Macro Discussion 2-4-10
  (Global Macro, Trades & Strategy)

Comments

[jeff montanye]

and look at the orders of magnitude:  total gold miner capitalization?  roughly $200 billion.  commercial banking?  $1500 billion+.  total gold ever mined?  $5 trillion.  total government bailouts of financial system recently?  $15 trillion+.

[TheGoodDoctor]

Wow. That puts it in perspective.

[Blindweb]

I also agree.  Number crunchers will lose this time.  100 years of data doesn't help you when the changing cycle is 500-1000 years in scope. 

[Gromit]

I agree also.

Based on your timeline we have at last another 200 years to muddle through.

Which rhymes with ancient Rome, they basically achieved their highest point by 50 BC or shortly thereafter, when they discontinued their experiment with democracy, they went through economic reset etc., still lasted 400 plus years.

[jeff montanye]

the pace of history is accelerating.  rome's debt levels and rates of change did not look like ours i would wager.

[bigkahuna]

I agree with GG. The only sellers out there are utilizing paper to manipulate the "market" price of PMs.

[MarketFox]

RM....

Again awesome work....

Stagflation seems to represent pricing discord which one could think of government monetary knee jerk type policies as being causal.

But let's cut to the chase, and think about what "trade" really is.

Take for example financial products.

A financial product such as security class A, could be a pool of homogenous securities which is $10 Billion in size which is deemed to be of the highest quality, meaning their outcome is seemingly more predictable in terms of risk.

So the idea of a securities business is to get paid for the creation of, and the distribution and maintenance of this product.

And thus the industry lives off of the expectation of name transfers revenues, price movement revenues, and relevant information.

Thus a securities industry is one that exists because lots of various pools of securities exist, by which revenues can be derived.

.........................................

Gold is just another homogeneous security that is distributed to various holder types. One should note that it does matter who holds majority percentages as to near term probable price outcomes, in that time value of currency matters.

And it should be noted that when distribution has largely been moved to weak hands, or rather a much larger proportion than usual, then the strong hands will eventually move in the opposing direction of the weak hands.

One should duly note that once distribution to weak hands is accomplished, in a much greater than usual proportion, the strong hands will move accordingly because of time versus currency.

It is not that important as to what the asset class is.

Gold, real estate, and all types of securities have a common factor in that they must be traded for currency versus time.

Do note the following:

In terms of gold distribution to weak hands, is it not true that the measurement of public media is considerably higher when prices move strongly to the positive ? The upward price movements are of keener interest to the strong hands because the weaker hands go long, not short.

When one reviews the highest performing hedge fund managers for 2009, what were the underlying securities ? They were the ones the weak hands were selling disproportionately.

Thus if one participates in any type of market, one should observe weak hands/strong hands distribution, before testing the waters.

Just as an aside, subprime was disproportionate, causal, and was/is the weak hands.

But know this, there will be a lower price owner in a different name.

In other words, just another market, that happens to be large enough to attract both weak and strong hands.

[Gunther]

Market Fox,
the strong/weak hands argument makes sense.
But, who are they?
Sellers: The "little" guy / gal sells grandma's jewellery. There are commercials in CNN espanol, German TV and newspaper, gold-SELLING-parties in the US and so on. BIg Banks sell paper gold likely without having bullion to back the sale.
On the buying side are central banks like India, and quite a few Asians and Arabs. Price action points towards that there is an unknown big buyer too who prevents the price from falling below 1100$.
If there is oversupply of bullion, why did Sprott not get the 200 tons of IMF gold?
Anyway, most buyers of bullion are not buying on margin and not subject to margin calls; in my opinion most qualify as strong hands.

[Lionhead]

My hands are strong Market Fox; & yours?

"For those "gold bugs" who have never ran the numbers, gold offers less inflation protection than your house does." One buys gold as it's the ultimate currency & store of wealth. Think sovereign defaults RM, that's the reason. Do you believe a gov't can go on indefinitely printing money & running ever higher deficits to survive the debt service? Run the numbers on that to the precise tipping point. I do believe we're in stagflation already & it's the worst possible place to be.