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Will Unemployment Continue to Climb?
From The Daily Capitalist
Last Friday the latest employment numbers came out and revealed that private employment was up by 67,000 jobs, but overall unemployment was up, to 9.6% from 9.5%, because of government worker layoffs (mainly Census workers). This means that 14.9 million people are unemployed (under the narrower U-3 definition).
The broadest measure of unemployment, the U-6 measure which includes "marginally attached" workers, such as those that haven't looked for a job in the last four weeks, or that have given up looking but want jobs, or temp workers who would like full-time jobs, went up to 16.7% from 16.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis that number (on an unadjusted basis, it was down to 16.4% from 16.8%).
Does this signal a turnaround in the employment situation? I don't think so. Here are the official trends:
All charts from the Wall Street Journal
It is easy to see from this chart above that employment gains have flattened since January, 2010.
Here is another statistic to look at for the week of August 28:
While the above jobless claims numbers are a bit of a mixed bag, the trend shows clearly in the chart. For the last two weeks of claims declined slightly, but the dark red line shows the 4-week moving average which shows rising claims.
Other indices such as the Monster Employment Index, a monthly analysis of U.S. online job demand, declined to 136 from 138. The Challenger mass layoff August report declined to 34,768 from 42,676. Then the ADP employment index for August declined to a negative 10,000:
"The ADP national employment report is computed from a subset of ADP records that in the last six months of 2008, represented approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients and approximately 24 million U.S. employees working in all private industrial sectors."
So where is unemployment going?
I'll let others analyze the faults of the BLS's methodology and certain apparent inconsistencies. Dave Rosenberg gives a good report today on that, and Mish, as usual thinks the BLS data are phony because of the "Black Box" birth-death business formations model. Mish is no doubt correct.
There are several important trends I believe are and will drive employment and I mentioned them last Thursday in my post on weakening manufacturing data, and especially rising inventories. This trend will lead to higher unemployment and Friday's BLS numbers bear this out as manufacturing shed jobs. According to the report:
Manufacturing employment declined by 27,000 over the month. A decline in motor vehicles and parts (-22,000) offset a gain of similar magnitude in July as the industry departed somewhat from its usual layoff and recall pattern for annual retooling.
The largest gains were shown in health care (+28,000), construction (+19,000), and professional temp workers (+17,000). These gains are not indicative of healthy private employment growth in my opinion. Health care is now being driven by Obamacare and Medicare, construction is driven by Recovery Act spending since new private development has fallen off a cliff, and temp workers show that businesses are still reluctant to hire.
My report Thursday ("Important Manufacturing Indicators Look Weak") reported on weakness in new manufacturing orders, rising inventories, and weak consumption data. David Stockman reported Friday on "private incomes" for June which were actually negative, which belies the optimistic report on private wages and salaries being up by 0.4%.
Also Friday the ISM came out with their Non-manufacturing Index, and the report was grim:
The ISM non-manufacturing report shows broad and deeper-than-expected slowing. New orders at 52.4 are down more than four points in August for the slowest rate of month-to-month growth so far this year. Employment, which in this report includes government workers, is signaling contraction, at 48.2 for a nearly three point decline for the worst reading since January. The composite headline index at 51.5 is down exactly three points for what is also the worst reading since January. ... Backlog orders are basically flat, export orders are down, deliveries are showing less delays, and general business activity is slower.
You can also see from the above chart, that this index has been flat to declining since March, 2010.
The report on durable goods orders report for July also was weak:
The bounce back in July [+0.3%] was led by the transportation component. Most other components slipped. Excluding transportation, new durables orders dropped 3.8 percent, following a 0.2 percent rise in June. While durables orders are a volatile series and some month-to-month dips are to be expected, the latest news is disappointing. . . . Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft in July fell 8.0 percent, following a 3.6 percent jump the month before. Shipments slipped 1.5 percent in July, following a 1.0 percent rise in June. However, orders and shipments for this series have shown strength for several months.
Just a few more bits. The Philadelphia Fed reported that its regional manufacturing index fell to -7.7 in August compared with 5.1 in July. Philadelphia reported that new orders rose in August, at an index of 55.0, but was way down from July's 64.6 for the slowest reading of the year. They also reported inventory backlogs jumped to 56.2, a negative factor.
Lastly, there is consumer sentiment:
Consumer confidence is weak reflecting an increasingly negative assessment of the jobs market. The Conference Board's index did rise 2-1/2 points from July but August's 53.5 level is still down almost 10 points from May (July revised six tenths higher to 51.0). More say jobs are hard to get, at 45.7 percent of the sample's initial 3,000 respondents vs. July's 45.1 percent for the worst reading since February. Again, direction is a special concern as pessimism has increased over the past two months. Confidence in future income improved slightly but remains very depressed with more seeing a decrease, at 16.1 percent, than an increase at 10.6 percent.
These factors will continue to depress employment and indicate weak economic growth.
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As Timmy would say, "Welcome to the Recovery"...
Do chickens have beaks?
I actually have Reagan Ranch 2010 Calender hanging on my wall: January 2010 page says, "The nine most terrifying words in the English language are, 'I'm from the goverment, and I'm here to help.'"
How about, I'm from Goldman Sachs and I've got AAA rated investment products for you...
OK, OK, I'll talk!!!
I'll sign any confession!!!!
Just don't say those horrible words again!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
If you watched Neil Cavuto today you would have seen business head after business head when asked about hiring plans and why not. Each one said Washington is the problem. They have no idea what nonsense is going to come out of that fantasyland known as DC.
So there you have it folks. All the economists, advisors and even community organizers can scratch and sniff all they want. Yet Ronald Reagan said it years ago, "government is not the solution, they're the problem."
Yet Ronald Reagan said it years ago, "government is not the solution, they're the problem."
If you look at the speech, you will see that Reagan was speaking about a specific instance. Use the quote if you want to, but don't attribute it to Ronald Reagan. If you attribute it to Reagan, then you must back up for context. What he said:
In this particular instance, government is not the solution; they are the problem.
His was a very narrowly-applied statement. He did not apply his statement to the entire government and to all that they do.
Bureaucracy of any sort can be very inefficient, whether government or private industry. But it can also be very effective, both government and private industry.
Reagan was not so ignorant of reality that he would apply his statement to all of government.
The problem is when government decides to make it certain that if they don't hire (or if they play games with hiring).
Besides, that's Fox - they can't get enough of trying to blame the current government.
The very people that sit at the top of the money pile, the ones that THEIR elected govt, the ones that helped offshore jobs (no, it's not taxes, it's labor costs!), these people would say that all of this isn't Their fault? Shocking!
Those fuckers would be all dead if not for the govt. It's the govt and its catering to these wealthy pigs that keeps them alive. They're only squealing because they want more from the trough: if you don't give us the money we'll crash the system- yeah, from the top of the "business" community, the banksters.
Fucking retards. When will people get it that it's the fucking System! Say it real slowly C A P A T A L I S M! Yes, that wonderful mechanism of a system that only knows growth- didn't anyone ask what would happen with such a System on a finite planet?
Yeah, govt...(not that I'm a fan)
Or maybe Capitalism, YMMV.
You need re-educated instead of indoctrinated. What you describe, government controlling and manipulation of industry, is the exact opposite of genuine Capitalism.
You admit to having a problem with government. In that, you are joined by billions of people. But your solution is badly misinformed.
You addressed an unimportant side issue and side-stepped the important one he raised. Can you have infinite growth in a finite world? What happens in a capitalistic system when growth stops or shrinks? What happens when you build factories and retail stores to service a huge bulge in the population and the generations that come after are considerably smaller? The answers to our current situation will be found in the answers to these questions. The issue of government is just a distraction from the real issue(s).
Those fuckers would be all dead if not for the govt. ... They're only squealing because they want more from the trough: if you don't give us the money we'll crash the system -
That quote seems to be the conventional wisdom for many posters here. I think a more accurate representation is this: We screwed up and we can't save ourselves; if you don't save us, the system will crash.
In my view, the execs are speaking truth to government (we can't save ourselves). In the view quoted above, the execs are holding the government hostage (because they have nothing better to do?). If the actual problem is falling demand brought on by a slow-down in baby-boomer purchases, and a lack of purchasing power due to the offshoring of American jobs (among other reasons), which view is likely to be more correct?
If we fired all the execs that we think are holding the government hostage, and replaced them with execs who wouldn't hold the government hostage, would that fix the economy? If the answer is no, then execs holding the government hostage is not the problem.
As long as dollar remains strong, economy will be weak so is employment, but who wants to buy t-bills if you have weak dollar. Fed falls into the deep hole dug by Ben. Do we have a solution? Yes, going into war. Countries in war zone will keep dollar up rather than Fed yet US arms and tech products quickly exported to war zone. How can you recover world No.1 economy by patching highway? a dumb idea.
There are plenty of highways and bridges that actually need to be fix. If this program gets them fixed, then it is a good thing. In terms of fixing highways and bridges, not in terms of fixing the economy.
This pretty much tears it. Along with a few other articles I've read, especially by Mish about the trouble in the unions arena. There are going to be some really disgruntled ex-union folks, spoiled and mad.
It looks like the employment situation is the final straw. There is nothing short of a WPA plan that will keep the natives from getting murderously restless. Getting that sort of program thru Congress will be like giving birth to a hippo.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
Mish is a good writer, and generally as "spot on" on economic issues as anyone outside of ZH.
But lately, he has been a "one note Johnny" on the subject of Public Employee Unions.
While I agree that they are a BIG part of the problem, they are by no means the ONLY problem we have.
In my opinion, the BIG problem we have is that TPTB have deliberately divided the country into two groups - The HAVES and the HAVE-NOTS.
Multinational CEO's, Banksters, Elected Politicians At All Levels, LObbyists and Unionized Public Employees: HAVES.
The Rest Of Us: Small businesspeople, tradesmen, independent professionals on Main Street, private sector employees: HAVE-NOTS.
Why was this state of affairs allowed to happen? Because the MOST CULPABLE and MOST GREEDY of the Haves - "Elected Politicians At All Levels" - realized that their CONTINUANCE IN OFFICE depended more than anything on forming a FISCAL ALLIANCE with the other "HAVE" groups.
The "Have Nots" are only permitted to exist as long as they remain a source of resources and funds to be harvested at will by the "Haves".
Like it or not, this is the logical end result of "Privatization" and "Deregulation". It is also what happens when government is permitted to become just another "interest group" negotiating for its share of the spoils with the other "Have" groups.
When Government ceases to rule a people in a just and impartial manner and makes a conscious decision instead to merely exploit them, then that Government's days are numbered.
That's the lesson of 1776 - and of Paris 1789 and St. Petersburg 1917 as well.
Bring on the First of Thermidor !
I mostly agree with you, look at the $50B stimulus announced for roads and infrastructure, e.g. another payout to unions.
But, I disagree with the privatization and deregulation statement. The concepts of privatization and deregulation were hijacked to create payouts to those who have connections. I would even go as far as saying that those endeavors were always a smokescreen around power consolidation.
The US only reforms when the oligarchs lose control and that will only happen through revolution. Sorry, that's just how it goes.
unemployment will continue to climb...the reported statistics will not
SGS has unemployment (using pre-Clinton methodology) back up to 22% - about where it's been since about mid-2009, or when the first "stimulus" package (ARRA) was made law.
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts
Continuing that trend looks like a peak of about 25% in late-2012 (I've not plotted this, merely eyeballed). I could buy that - hard to imagine employment going anywhere but sideways or slightly higher.
You are better off studying the civilian employment rate rather than the unemployment rate.
This number shows you how many jobs the current environment supports.
Total employment is tied to the profitability of corporate America. Expect total employment to beging climbing in the latter half of the first quarter through the fall of 2011. But it won't be enough to drop unemployment percentages below 8.9%.
Are you kidding me? Corporate profitability, as it is currently achieved, is dependent on lowering labor costs as much as possible. Temp workers, off-shoring, etc., etc. With Obamacare and other government mandates, companies have every incentive to not hire workers.
The unemployment data will go where its told.
The 'data' is akin to, 'counting votes'.
Does a bear market sh-t in the woods?
We can have a functioning economy simply by printing money and doing each others' wash.
Wait, what? Get outta here stiglitz.
That is true, it can happen.
The only problem with it is that it provides no growth in real terms. The spurts of progress, economically and socially can only occur in a fertile creative environment. Think big inventions and small ones that demand brains and brawn to get the jobs done that derive from efforts like computers, armaments, roads, bridges, public transit.
Unless someone has created a job for someone else, a real job that NEEDS to be done, there will be no real growth and hence only a survival mode of an economy.
I'd reason that right now the behind the scenes the greedy jockeying for who gets what out of the administration's future dictates are what is holding us back.
"The largest gains were shown in health care (+28,000), construction (+19,000), and professional temp workers (+17,000). "
who cares! these data points are noise...look at your broad trends - they are going sideways....same for the stock market.
we are in a depression....until the kinks, distortions, and frauds embedded into the economy by the fed are removed we will have high unemployment as far as the eye can see - just like trillion dollar deficits...(and qe)...
didn't we have numerous bounces in the 1930s fed-induced depression exacerbated by the musoliniesque fdr? are the same evil fucktards still in charge?
Dburn:
I pretty much share your observation.
On the other side: Is this a bad thing? Working from contract to contract might anyway be safer than working in a large corporation. You have a larger network, your skills are up-to-date and you are more flexible.
It depends. It's all going to be different for each person. Ideally the person the employer would like is in the early 30s to early 40s max. That is usually the time people are well on their to having families or at least starting one. So narrowing it further I would say it might be good for someone who has no roots, no family, likes to travel, has some experience and is between the ages of 32-42.That would have described me in-between those ages.
I don't think there is any question it's going to have major impact on the way we live. A person who gets into the temp rotation might start out in a Midwest state and then a few years alter find themselves on the West or East coast when employment opportunities dry up either as result of economic conditions or there is no more call for the particular specialty that person has experience in.
I also question what it's going to do for a person who is relatively ambitious if they are changing workers and states twice a year. They are more or less coming in to a new situation so working their way "up" is just not going to happen. For those who have specialties that have a longer time horizon then say a certain technology, then there may be room to move up within the temp agencies. If people could get past the gatekeeper so they can learn new technologies on the job, then it could be lucrative as well. I saw some positions for people with 3 years of Sharepoint experience for $150K a year. They were long for temp jobs too, about 18 months. One might have to spend a few years learning and then they will have the requisite experience to compete for those jobs.
I just don't think this type of work is going to appeal to a large part of the workforce who values family and stability. Then again, they might not have any choice. People in the military have to leave their families for long stretches of time. So it's not like it's a new choice in lifestyles. I think though that people will be a little put off if it's the only choice they have.
Those in their 50s need not apply. That is going to cause problems as those used to be peak earning years. This is an age group which most people are really surprised when they arrive there. There isn't any more time for experimentation. So to be in a situation where there is open age discrimination is going to hurt but it's not the only problem. People in their 50s expect to be on the the top of the various pyramids so they have tendency to turn their noses up at certain kinds of work or at least the pay. This was when they were told that they would be the bosses. Now they are told, "we don't want you". So part of this is not having the ability to adapt. Their savings have been wiped out as well as their none liquid assets. So this is going to hit those coming out of school and those in their late 40s on up really hard. No one wants to train anyone. They don't have to right now.
A person who gets in that temp rotation is going to have to learn to live like a monk when they are working because it could be months in-between gigs. It just depends on what the market is like and if the job is advertised as good paying because then everyone is going to rush to get trained in it creating a supply imbalance. No more living check to check. People will be forced to learn to save. That's good. But not for a consumer society. Definitely not for the check cashing industry.
If I were young, I would train my ass off on how to write vertical mobile apps and possibly consumer apps if I wanted to roll the dice. I think this is going to be a huge wave . Being a project manager who has written some basic apps will be hot. Starting companies up who either develop mobile apps or sell completed apps made in house is another area for entrepreneurial types. This is one area that isn't a fluke.
I think it's because it's what personal computing was supposed to be when people envisioned in back in the early 80s. By now it was supposed to be easy. It isn't. It's not cheap either. But Mobile computing and iPad type computing has all the elements of turning computing on it's head for the the bulk of the people who don't know the difference between RAM and a Hard drive. So people well versed in Java or Objective C will have some terrific opportunities coming up. I don't know of any major company that isn't developing applications for mobile use right now.
I've seen people here who think it's a luxury and a unnecessary one. It may be if one is lucky enough to have a stay-at-home existence. But for someone who is on the move, it won't be optional in a short time. It will be like going through the 80s without a fax machine or going through the 90s until now without an email address. If the Slates and IPads take off then it will have complete coverage from mobile to stay at home. On that note Amazon released a Kindle for $134.00 that they have sold out a few times already. It won't be long before that's the new iPad price range and no monthly data charges either.
So there is a whole industry that is quickly developing out of these devices and it promises to be huge. There will be room in too for non-techs , so it may very well be dot.com two, sans useless IPOs and BS companies. Now if iFart goes public I may have to change my tune on that. However, they have sold millions of those 99 cent apps from what I Understand. That's not trivial when 70% of each dollar goes into the developers pocket. There are already magazines that cover the apps and magazines that cover the mobile devices themselves. So imagine all the different jobs a new industry like that turns out and I think we may have the start of a economic engine.
Remember it was the day Netscape went public in 1995, that jobs ceased to be a concern after that. Then panic hiring started. It could very well be that big. Then Temp may not be as big as people think. We'll see.
The more reason to make it nigh impossible to use temp work as a dodge.
I'm pretty skeptical about mobile apps being the next big thing. Age discrimination is a huge problem, yes. And what you said about people who move from job to job never being on "the ladder" is also very true. It is what it is. Despite two advanced degrees and many years of experience, I will never move up to anything. I just hope to make enough cash to keep my family going and eke out some kind of retirement. My dream is to be a ski lift operator at some Montana or Idaho resort and kiss the software biz goodbye. I could give a shit about being any kind of executive, quite frankly.
At one time I too thought that things were heading in this direction (when I was in high tech), but not anymore. Not to say that I don't appreciate your analysis, but...
As I see it (and I DO see it), tech will NOT be the future. Sure, it'll be used to squeeze a bit more out of the existing system, but face it, no one will be able to afford the products that come out of it: the only likely use will be by the elites to control the masses, but even here it's only a matter of time before no more blood can be squeezed from the rocks).
The future? Farming. It was the past, the majority of what constitutes modern man. And it's also how a very large percentage of humans get by day to day, today. Consider that if someone isn't buying your product, can you eat it? If you farm you can. Hard work? Yup. I'll take hard work over no work, or working for overlords (govt/military/industrial/prison complex).
Food, shelter and water, bitches!
Is "bitches" one of the choices.
Yay. Just what every nation needs... millions of rootless, resentful drifters, popping into a strange town every few months; knowing no one, connected to no one...
After a few years of that we'll be finding dead hookers behind every bush.
Everyone that I talk to that has been looking for W-2 jobs can't find them. Instead, we are all on the 1099 boat. That's just the way it is. If I ran a company I would probably do the same. How would you justify any significant full time hiring to your BoD in this day and age?
Certainly causes a societal change, but the upside is that it is easy to walk away from a 1099 gig when they squeeze you too hard (and when you have more than one gig at a time). There is a sense of freedom that I never had with a W-2 position.
Just some anecdotal tidbits. I have specific searches for tech -OT jobs emailed to me each morning from dice.com and the listings took a huge leap. This was just in the last week so it may be due to post labor day get back to work syndrome or orders have come down the pipeline to move ahead with tech projects that would permanently lower head count. It is notable that none of them were permanent hires. The temp industry has been alive and well for IT for some time now.
A new kind of Temp agency, or at least one that I wasn't aware of, seems to have gained popularity; Offshore Temp agencies. Yes Offshore temp agencies hiring American temps. I imagine that this is fairly convenient for employers who really don't want to pay those large fees to a temp agency or it could be that this is the easiest way to get around those pesky employment laws. Then again it might be both. One temp agency wanted me to sign a contract with them that they would be my exclusive representative. Apparently employers are now pitting temp agency against temp agency to fill higher level openings. So if a candidate shows up on their search and they feel good about them, they ask you to sign a exclusivity contract.
After talking to a few who could barely speak English, an American called and I asked him about it and it was like asking him to describe, in detail, the death of a relative. He was decidedly unhappy with the trend. Either way, they are all serial abusers of the American IT worker. The pay is crappy, they want you to relocate for 3 month-8 month gigs with no guarantees against termination in a week or so for A. the company going out of business or B. someone doesn't like you and decides your need for an answer on why working overtime means clocking out and working is decidedly bad manners and wants a replacement immediately.
Either way, I decided I would continue beating my brains out trying to get my business to the black. I never told them my age which I already know is an immediate dis-qualifier. On the Macro side, I would say temp employment is the future of the American job market. Since an all out effort has been in place to permanently reduce the head count with technology, no new industries seem to be out there , unless the mobile application industry turns into internet 11 which turned employment around in the 90s, then every out of work American should walk away from their houses and get de-rooted because in order to work shitty jobs with no benefits, you have to be mobile. With the temp jobs being temp, being tied down with home friends and family is just no longer an option if you want to work no matter where you happen to be located.
Oh yeah, it's also helpful to specialize in a very narrowly defined specialty in your particular field and also be able to do other jobs as they occur. The jobs seem to require very narrow skill sets in a very complicated area. Your bet is as good as mine what skill sets will be useful in the next few years or how one would get experience in them and learn them if temp life is the life for you. If you don't own your own business, it could very well be the life for a good part of the private industry worker who are not in the C-Suite for a very long time.
Get those old bags out and "hit the road Jack".
Dburn:
Thank you for the excellent information. I think you've hit on something here. That is, the "New Mobility" of workers. I think this is a growing trend, although all I have is anecdotal evidence.
In earlier times we had large population shifts as new industries grew. For example, there was a significant population shift post-WWI as African-Americans left the South for jobs in the North, such as in Detroit where good jobs could be had. About the same time textile mills relocated from the Northeast to the South, and the mill towns in Massachusetts declined. WWII drew blacks and southerners westward to work in defense industries.
While I disagree that new companies aren't being formed, I do see workers going to jobs, but it's not any specific industry. Yes, construction workers and mortgage industry workers are finding little to do, but relocation seems to be a trend there too. There are lots of recent articles about how people feel stuck in homes and can't leave to find new jobs elsewhere. Maybe the husband goes to find work elsewhere and leaves his family behind.
I still see lots of IT opportunities here on the western edge of the continent. Don't know where you are, but, while subdued, the VC industry is still active. It is inevitable that IT workers will face competition from abroad; that won't change. But the US is still the idea factory because of our strong well developed financial system that rewards innovation.
This all plays into what Keynes called "sticky wages" which says we have high unemployment because workers demands for wages are higher than what industries are willing to pay during a decline. It appears to me that they are less sticky than one would believe. We have high unemployment because of uncertainty, lack of credit, and high levels of debt that haven't yet been deleveraged. But that's another issue.
You've given us something to chew on. Thanks.
You don't know shit about the software industry. Everything you just described has been going on for 10 years. There is nothing new about any of it, so don't act like it is. As far as wages go, you can still make good money in software contracting, but you have to bring your A game. They simply don't have time for jackasses who can't cut it. I will say that the standards have gone up quite a bit--everyone wants superstars who can do complete "full stack" development and you have to be personable, something that no truly good coder is. So yes, there are challenges.
As far as tech vagabonds go, please stop reading Bruce Sterling! Sure, there are people who travel around the country from gig to gig, but most all decent sized cities have enough work for you to stay in one place. It's not that bad--sure beats the living hell out of being a fucking diesel mechanic! I can't imagine stinking like diesel fuel all day, every day. That has got to truly suck ass.
Those Indian tech recruiters have been around for awhile. Many of them are scams of one sort or another. You have to be careful who you have representing you. I only stick to local recruiters whom I like. The business has too many middlemen, frankly.
"I decided I would continue beating my brains out trying to get my business to the black."
Has no one else suggested to you the folly of throwing good money after bad?
Good "In the field" heavy equipment diesel mechanics with their own rig can easily pull down six figures after expenses. They are highly sought after, and the best of them can negotiate their own terms.
Smelling like diesel and having a little grease under your fingernails isn't too big a price to pay if the stick in one's ass isn't shoved up there so far it blocks your vision.
If one is a temp worker would the HR gate keepers label you as a job hopper?
Very insightful and interesting post. Some real meat in there to chew on.
You describe one potential future . . . that of a gypsy high tech gun for hire. You are correct, with this choice, you pull up roots, and are on the move, looking for the next paycheck.
I think there is another option, although many will find it distasteful. Retrain into a field that perhaps you have traditionally viewed as being beneath you ( I dont mean you, Dburn, I mean the general "you").
Believe it or not, in many parts of the country, there is a shortage of Diesel Mechanics. There are also opportunities for electricians, and Wind Turbine techs. Small engine repair . . . as things get worse, people will be more likely to repair things than to replace them.
So, yes, one option is to become a gypsy, and another is to retrain in a "trade", lower expectations for your standard of living, and hunker down.
Small engine mechanics make about $8 an hour around my city. Sorry to burst the old bubble. Diesel mechanic work is very hard and can be high paying; no argument there. Have you done the work before? I would not suggest re- training for anybody over 50 for that career field for two reasons: you still have much to learn after school and it is a very physical job. I just don't see much return on investment with most job training for adults in their forties and beyond. I would like to know the total number of graduates that tech schools, community colleges and big four year universities churn out every year(including master and PhD). It seems like a waste of time to go back and fight to start on the bottom again. BTW, where is the bottom now?
So what would you suggest for those in the high tech field having trouble getting work? Sit and do nothing? There are no perfect solutions, and I believe many are slow to realize that the skills they have are no longer needed, or are over-supplied.
It is very easy for small engine mechanics to make well over $8 an hour, but it requires more motivation than just walking in and getting a job at a lawn mower shop.
I am sorry to burst YOUR bubble, but things that worked in the past are not going to work in the future, and the sooner people realize it, the better off they will be.
Actually, I think you are on the right track. One difference between the over fifty and under fifty population, is that the over fifty crowd seems more likely to have a skill set to fall back on.
When my parents were young, they were more likely to have worked their way through school than borrowed their way through. In the seventies and eighties, you may have had to turn wrenches for several years until the job you wanted came through.
Today's thirty-something job seekers are less likely to have marketable skills they can fall back on. More entitled, and having been brought up in an easier financial environment has left many of them with nowhere to turn. (At least as far as they're concerned)
In the rural area I'm from there has always been a healthy cash and barter economy. People with tools, the ability to use them, and most importantly a willingness to do so, are never going to go hungry.
The willingness to adjust your lifestyle is the key, as you noted above.
I agree with your points.
Unfortunately, many people with highly specialized skills today lack more broadly useful skills. We have become so specialized that we know almost everything about almost nothing. I don't think this model works so well in the future. I think it would be wise for everyone to ask themselves if what they do is REALLY needed. I think most people have trouble doing this exercise in a really honest manner.
As has been pointed out "this is NOT your Father's Depression".
People are frozen in place by their underwater homes. They can get by on food stamps, unemployment and early-disbursed 401K.
No riding the rails like the hobos of the 30s...
Lastly, there is consumer sentiment . . .
Firstly and lastly, there is global labor arbitrage -- and that's all you need to know.
is there a high turnover rate or is the workforce "stagnating"? if i were to hazard a guess we are in "all stop" mode with an entire workforce "digging in their heels" and "girding for something." if this guess is true then we have serious issues with credit going forward since the "lack of interest in opportunity costs" loom large over any lender irregardless of what "the regulator" does. in short if you scare the people the people will be scared. God forbid if the intent is to harm them or make them feel unsafe.
Yep, I think it is going to get worse before it gets better.
Speaking of getting worse, AUDJPY and EURUSD just pooped the bed and are heading lower. Could be interesting for tomorrow...