Will The US Devalue The Dollar?
It is well-documented by economists at SocGen and elsewhere, that the world has now entered a race to the currency bottom. Ongoing recent actions by the BOJ, ECB, SNB and all relevant central banks have made this a near certainty. Yet the biggest question mark is how the US will approach the imminent dollar devaluation (and with many trillions in debt overhang needing to be rolled over, the Fed has two options: accelerated inflation or dollar devaluation) - will it be a gradual process or rapid and unexpected. A paper by Darryl Robert Schoon analyzes the various forces at play when evaluating the probability of a dollar devaluation. "Capitalism cannot function unless its constantly compounding debt is serviced and/or paid down. Today, the US, the world’s largest debtor, can no longer pay what it owes except by rolling its debt forward and borrowing more, what the late economist Hyman Minsky called ponzi-financing, financing common in the final stages of mature capital systems...We are in what Stephen Roach, Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, calls the end-game, the resolution of past monetary excesses and imbalances, excesses and imbalances that reached never-before-seen heights in the last decade." Nothing too surprising for regulars, yet a good summary of the dilemma facing the monetary authority of the United States.