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Will We Have a Merry Christmas?
This article originally appeared in The Daily Capitalist.
Retailers are counting on holiday sales this year but on the other hand they are rather pessimistic. It remains to be seen if holiday sales will improve substantially this year. The latest Gallup survey on Christmas sales showed sales expectations were lower than 2009:
But look at the gap between upper income (those earning $90,000 or more) versus low to middle income consumers:
Modest overall spending except for the upper income folks. Remember they have more discretionary income and spend more than any other group (from the BLS):
And it appears this upper income group is becoming more optimistic, at least according to this Merrill Lynch survey (Sept-Oct):
Affluent Americans — those with more than $250,000 in investable assets — are feeling more confident about their finances than they did a year ago:
• 41% of affluent Americans feel financially better off today than they did one year ago;
• More than three out of four (78%) are confident that their financial picture will improve in the year ahead.
• 61% expect to retire later than originally planned, an increase from 29% in January 2010
According research pointed out byDavid Rosenberg at Gluskin Sheff, the stock market's wealth effect has a positive effect on wealthier Americans:
there is an 82% correlation between the stock market and high-end retail sales, such as jewellery. So there is obviously some truth to the equity wealth effect playing a role in consumer spending, but more towards the luxury goods area.
So, while most of us are cutting back, the "rich" (i.e., anyone that has been moderately successful) will be going for the bling. I am confused, I admit.
Yesterday I stopped off at a Costco in Oxnard on my way back from LA (business). Oxnard is heavily Latino and African-American, but the store also draws from more affluent areas such as Ventura, Westlake, and Camarillo. The place was packed and the parking lot was crowded. On a Wednesday. I would say that the shoppers were 75% Hispanic, many of them Spanish-speaking immigrants . Now as you know, Costco isn't Wal-Mart: it has a higher price point and, in my opinion, better quality goods.
I also cruise the stores in downtown Santa Barbara, our main street where the action is, and it seems crowded. Let me dissuade you that Santa Barbara is affluent. It's median income is slightly below Ventura County, but there are pockets of high affluence. Downtown Santa Barbara also draws buyers from North County (Santa Maria) and from San Luis Obispo.
Driving around LA, mostly west LA, a relatively more affluent area than other LA areas, it seemed busy but not crowded. My feedback from Santa Monica is that retailers down by Third Street are doing better. I didn't stop off at the Galleria in Sherman Oaks but the parking garage looked full.
So, what is happening?
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another trash... hey idiot instead driving around just go to SS fund stats..
as you might know SS contributions are BEST BY FAR best PROXY FOR LABOR/SALARY IN USA..
why .. cause every working guy pays it and #2 its capped 100.000 per,,
so its NOT skewed towards the rich.. so if you're CEO of Apple and making like bandit
you still pay SS taxes off just 100.000$.. so
y/y %growth still down.. so overall number jobs and/or salary pool contracted
from disaster 2009 and this despite for ultra low rates and stock market rally..
please do me a favor stop writing here..
alx
Jersey malls are full of shoppers. I overheard someone at my gym saying that they can buy presents this year since the bank has delayed forclosing. Any conclusions?
I told my twenty something children that this Christmas they are getting a sticky notepad and will take turns going around the house and putting their names on everything their mother and I have.
Merry Christmas!
And they think I am joking.
The greater Philadelphia area malls including Delaware have been packed, as to what people are spending I have no clue. I do know I get 30 - 40% off deals every day in my inbox from the GAP and Banana Republic. In terms of the stock market, I would expect results to beat expectations. Long as the CC keeps working not to much is going to change, excessive consumption had become part of the American pschye.
Of course sheeple are shopping. What else do they have for entertainment? Nobody does anything any more. Socializing means sending a text message. Exercise is on a machine while staring at a blank wall or television. Work is following the traffic jam to a cubicle. We've lost all connection to nature. Emotions are suppressed. We are all like the pitiful caged tiger that just walks around in a circle.
Re: Christmas 2010...
...quite "normal", indeed as it once was, back in the 'Happy Time' before all hell broke out, THEN...and THERE
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KCJBBZoLiyU
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MH2A8ZnQCVQ&NR=1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=02vUhEGQLu0
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4qxTCM_dIe0&NR=1&feature=fvwp
Credo quia absurdum "I believe because it is absurd" Human knowledge, an act of faith, criterion of certitude is authority..[Tertullian => Martin Luther => Hitler => Milgram => Construction of Social Reality]
"Natus est Dei Filius, non pudet, quia pudendum est; et mortuus est...Dei Filius, prorsus credibile est, quia ineptum est; et sepultus resurrexit, certum est, quia impossibile" — (De Carne Christi V, 4 Tertullian)
"The Son of God was born: there is no shame, because it is shameful. And the Son of God died: it is wholly credible, because it is unsound. And, buried, He rose again: it is certain,because impossible."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ericksonian_Hypnosis
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consensus_reality
http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Special:Search&search=consensu...
[consensus trance - Tart]
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/week-neuroplasticity-data-stream-waves-...
Denial.
I wonder if the "squattin' on the mortgage" phenomena figures into any of it.
Record banker bonuses. 'Nuff said.
i hate (actually i would like) to see what those numbers would look like if everyone was made to pay with CASH
Some places give cash discounts because the merchant fees are becoming a bit annoying. If you want a discount on antiques, offer to pay cash. You may be pleasantly surprised.
i'm glad to know that i am a consumer unit. it reinforces my thesis that the plutocrats see people as debt and consumer slaves. fuck you too..
i have maintained throughout this enduring crisis that the upper quintile was largely immune to the depression and that stock market prices reflect this and the fact that the big players on the sp500 derive 15-60% of their revenues and profits overseas. thus it matters not what happens to the majority of american consumer units.
of course when you're an illegal immigrant, it increases discretionary income because, well, taxes aren't a material part of anyone's income calculus except in the field of avoidance.
We will absolutely have a Merry Christmas. Retail sales will "surprise" those looking for the collapse around the corner.
Having spent the last month or so in the greater Chicagoland area, I can tell you that everything is packed. If you're lucky enough to find a place in traffic, you probably won't be so lucky finding a place to park. And it isn't even Thanksgiving yet.
Of course, after a great Christmas shopping season, ZH will be here with articles telling us how it just can't be, the numbers lie I tell you, and other such nonsense.
Things aren't that bad and they're getting better.
2 million coming off UE benefits Dec 1 and about a million a month after that.. I wonder if they are going to have a nice Xmas.. I fucking hate Xmas.. bunch of bullshit.. It's everything that is wrong with this society.. Bunch of fucking hypocrites.. Only religious now, only charitable now... I'd like to puke on St. Nick..
It wasn't until A.D. 440 that the church officially proclaimed December 25 as the birth of Christ. This was not based on any religious evidence but on a pagan feast. Saturnalia was a tradition inherited by the Roman pagans from an earlier Babylonian priesthood. December 25 was used as a celebration of the birthday of the sun god. Christmas is actually a pagan holiday adopted by the Roman Catholic Church in order to lure pagans at the time into the church. Why we've all kept Jesus Christ's birthday on the false date of December 25th is anyone's guess. It is just a party, thats all. As usual, people are deceived.
http://www.allaboutjesuschrist.org/was-jesus-born-on-december-25-faq.htm
You are right - it really is a bunch of bullshit.
Same in Dallas, parking lots full, waiting in checkout. Does look like a better Christmas this year. Hard to believe and accept but it looks better.
more and more bulls are appearing on ZH. The crash must
be just around the corner!
Banksters will have a Merry Xmas. Most other folks are maxed out, broke, bankrupt, jobless, in CD's making 1%, short and got the Fed squeeze, or thankful the SNAP card can get a turkey or a ham. Me, I aint buying nuttin. Happy Holidays Wall Street
Jinko bells, jinko bells, jinko all the way! Sorry couldn't resist, check out the move today after a sharp selloff:
I suppose you bought heavily at 9:45?
From my personal experience, most people who have a middle class cubicle-type job, and have had it for a few years and haven't been threatened with layoffs, are pretty much oblivious to the state of the economy. The boob tube blathers on about recovery this and recovery that, and that is all they hear.
People only get an eye opener when they lose their job, or a lot of people they know lose their job, or when their personal finances go down the shitter.
Went to the Apple store again in Manhattan Beach Village, and once again the place was packed. There must have been 40 employees there trying to help everybody. I was inquiring about an upgrade to Office 2011 for my iMac, but I gave up after fooling around for a half an hour playing with iPads, Macbook Air, etc.
What a joke. The store is so busy that 40 employees can't even handle the traffic.
By the way, the XRT rocketed to new closing highs again today, thanks to Nike and Foot Locker.
Saw XRT, but what are you doing in an Apple Store? Is the IMAX 3-D theater boarded up? Ofice 2011??? If your software isn't provided for you (exceptional market-matician that you are) and Google Apps (stock quotes inserted into spreadsheets at 60 second refresh rates) isn't good enuf that you need mid-afternoon entertainment? You should check out www.newegg.com before spending money on anything else.
Wow for a change I'm actually above the average for Christmas spending. But I guess passing out silver rounds does get expensive fast.
As for what is happening I'm guessing people are hitting their credit cards. If they are employed their world has not changed all that much. And it's not like putting Christmas on the credit card is anything new
Maybe it's the start of the crack up boom, but I think that is still down the road.
The retail stores should stock anything silver. That should assure some good sales.
The Ag shoppers are too busy waiting for the Ted Butler interview at the chrismartensen site.
As long as the credit cards keep their lines open, Americans will spend money they do not have. One day, the banks will cut off their addiction.