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On the "Wink and Nod"
When it comes to long term economic modeling there are two critical
variables. (I) population and its relative growth over time and (II)
labor force participation rates. If you get these two numbers right the
job of forecasting the future gets easier. As a result, there is a
significant amount of academic analysis of these factors.
The CBO is out with a report on the topic. A very thorough job at that. This is a clinical economic analysis. Just the facts maam. This is the language that the CBO uses to describe America’s illegal migration:
Unauthorized Residents.
CBO estimates that, on net, about
400,000 unauthorized residents (foreign-born people who are not
authorized to live, work, or study in the country) left the United
States in 2010. It anticipates little change in the number of
unauthorized residents in 2011, but it projects net inflows of
about 1.4 million in 2014 and again in 2015 as the economy recovers and
demand for labor strengthens. Beginning in 2016, the projected net flows
of unauthorized residents taper off and reach 270,000 (the same as SSA’s projection) in 2020.
I don’t want to initiate a debate on what America should or shouldn’t do
on the emotive topic of illegal migration. Instead focus on how nutty
it is that we actually model our economic outcome based on the current
status quo. And the assumption is that nothing will change until 2020 at
the earliest.
I don’t fault the economist who came to these conclusions. This is the “base case”.
It is part of the broader macro economic outlook that the CBO uses to
look into the future and make baseline economic predictions. I read most
of the stuff from the CBO. Everything they produce has this Subject To:
What is a baseline?
A budget baseline is a projection of future spending and revenues based on the general assumption that current laws and policies remain unchanged.
Now I’m confused. There is no question that the CBO’s assumptions are not based on Current Law. There is nothing legal at all about the expectation of 5mm ‘Unauthorized Residents’. Therefore the forecast must be made based on the assumption that Current Policies will remain in place.
But what are the policies? The ones set forth by the President?
These are his words from the State of the Union. I don’t read this to
mean that it is US “Policy” to have millions of illegals.
• Continue to make border security the responsibility and priority of the federal government,
• Hold accountable businesses that break the law by exploiting undocumented workers,
• Make those living in the United States illegally take responsibility for their actions, and
• Strengthen our economic competiveness by creating a legal immigration system that meets our diverse needs.
The US is spending about $4b a year in the Border Patrol. They just
spent $1b on a new high-tech surveillance plan. Then they scrapped it.
Surely the CBO is aware of these on budget expenses. It’s hard to see
billions being spent and then conclude that it is the “Policy” of the US to allow 500k Unauthorized Residents a year into the system.
So the CBO definition of, “What is a baseline?” should be changed to read:
A budget baseline is a projection of future spending and revenues based on the general assumption that current laws, policies and or predictable illegal activity remain unchanged.
But that won’t happen. To change the CBO language to reflect Reality would make the whole process look foolish. But actually when you look at it, it is foolish either way. We’re kidding ourselves at so many levels.
On Wall Street this kind of stuff used to be called the “Wink and nod”. I’m not familiar with the equivalent in D.C. Any suggestions?
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Bruce, in order to understand Doublespeak you must learn to Doublethink.
WallStreet -- A wink and a nod
DC -- A fart and a smile
DC- A Dutch Oven and a Pittsburgh Platter
I hope that wil improve the financial situation in the near future. With some new laws we can do it asap. free poker games
Realpolitik - n: Politics based on practical and material factors rather than on theoretical or ethical objectives
Fact remains that systemic lawlessness in baked into the cake
Crime is contagious. If the government becomes a law breaker, it breeds contempt for the law - Justice Brandeis
Brandeis was just rewording Bastiat. Brandeis was, at heart, a copy cat and plagiarist.
Spreading quality thought through the generations is good, plagiarism or not, especially when Bastiat makes it into judicial continuity. And I agree to disagree, Brandeis managed to do what few others have through bridging. Jimmy Vaughan did say it best tho ..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hw3oAL64wXE
How much of your product is truly original human thought?
"I don’t want to initiate a debate on what America should or shouldn’t do on the emotive topic of illegal migration"
how the fuck is it that illegal immigration is an "emotive" topic when you would back up with your life some fucking corrupt judge's right to give a heavy fine for a traffic violation because the traffic violation was illegal???
fuck all you goddamned assholes.....
illegal immigration is legal and is supported in policy and accepted as a fact of life....arizona is on the verge of being invaded for its truculence against illegal immigration....
so why shouldn't the wall street banksters be emboldened to plunder america when a clearly illegal act is really legal?? and we don't want to discuss it because it is "emotive"
you people are a blight on the body politic....if i were a politician i wouldn't think twice about plundering you....
you could be fired from a job for misrepresentations on a job application or disciplined in school for cheating....but if you are here illegally then you are protected by the state for being here and granted massive amounts of taxpayer transfers....oh but we don't want to discuss emotive topics...
perhaps soon some kenyan or chicagoan will return to their home unemployed, so the USA can be a better place, one that supports a persons right to work, without forced unionization, one that is safe for liberty. and perhaps I have been infected with unicorn disease.
brooklyn, believe the hype!
The politicians, the corporations, the ag lobby, and the churches want the illegals here to provide votes, fill up social services ("gosh, we need more money"), cheap labor, and slave labor unfettered from labor laws and taxes - not to mention donations and docile obedient members in the pews.
The losers are legal American families who are displaced in the schools, the doctors offices, the jobs, and the church pews (e.g. - hearing a sermon in English is hard to come by fer chris' sake).
The joke in this Western town over 1,000 miles from the border is that the new name of the Catholic church is "Our Lady of the Holy Enchilada".
""Only if you return home too, Walter Raleigh.""
Didnt say send him home, just give him back. And I will gladly return home to where ever my American Indian folks came from and Ireland, Scotland, and England. I dont have that many personalities at this time, but am working on it.
i doubt housing is going to recover by 2014 for the mexicans to come back in huge numbers. The next time housing construction starts to pick up will be when the construction worker in USA makes as much as a construction worker in Mexico. Maybe they will come to the US to try crossing over to Canada.
So it seems odd to me that it might be safe to assume that a decent majority of the posters to this site do 'due dilligence' as a prerequisite to sustainability in their professional capacity?
And yet there are mixed opinions regarding obama's legitimacy?
I'd love to be a research analyst running the stats on correlations between wealth management success during the last 10-20 years and opinions regarding obamer and his credentials.
I'll go all in long with the skeptics.
If you can't smell the rot in this game?
You will lose.
You see, we take orders from the U.N., the Bilderberg Group, Trilateral Commission, and Council On Foreign Relations. Guess what, they want a "North American Union", which is a piece of the puzzle that will ultimately lead to one world government, a.k.a. the new world order. The North American Union would be a combination of Canada, USA, and Mexico. THEREFORE, our southern border is wide open. and. will. stay. that. way.
I knew the gig was up on housing when there weren't 60 Mexicans in the Home Depo parking lot at 5 am weekdays looking for a job.
Now there are 70 at the Home Despot because there is no work for them.
What complete nonsense. Why would you give any credence to the CBO???
Nowhere does the CBO meta-analysis provide even one sentence about where the jobs are going to come from to employ the native population entering the work force--- net of those leaving it due to retirements, deaths, and simply dropping out---let alone immigrants, legal and illegal.
No jobs, and not one business mentioned that's going to do all that hiring.
All that immigration is going to do is add to the welfare rolls.
BK---One of your best. Adds a little funny to the insanity of the SOP thinking of the boss/bosses of the USA.
First poster. Obama does not have proper papers to show his birth place. He may be African/African, not African/American. The African part is a given. The question is, can we return him, no refund requested.
Only if you return home too, Walter Raleigh.
Deleted dup
And we'll provide the ferry to Russia since the Bering Strait land bridge is no longer there for you to return as well.
A wink and nod is more an affirmation of a joint effort. No such affirmations or joint efforts take place in D.C. In D.C. they just look the other way, like the complicity that pervades Wall Street. BTW, how many of those back up locations are within that 50 mile Indian Point evacuation radius?
Took a modest short at 1.0140 AUD/USD, stop at just over the wick high on the 1.0250 H8 candle from Dec 31.
A 1/1 trade. Looking for parity, and maybe a break lower. If price hits 1.00 then I will move the stop to breakeven as was done with the GBP/USD and EUR/CAD trades from yesterday.
Only trade for my own account. Not interested or looking to 'sell' a service, but appreciate debate, differing opinions, especially critical and informed thinking.
Thanks, BK
For short term you might be ok. But ur RR is *wrong*. And, fyi: Trend is higher, we'll do new highs AUD$. GBPUSD 1.675. U're welcome
You may be right. Whatever works is subjective to trading style/s, timeframes, experience and tolerance.
Btw this is a reversal of a long trade I called on another BK post from 03/17 long AUD/USD at 0.9920, long EUR/USD at 1.4050, short USD/CAD at 0.9850, long AUD/JPY at 77.90...........close enough and was long OIL somewhere in there too.
Top of a significant range for AUD post historic BOJ intervention and bonds looking for higher yields. It may run higher, who knows?
You either pay or get paid to assume risk. Kind of simple, right. That is trading.
Just for the record, Themo.......reversred GBP/USD short from 1.6350 to long at 1.6120 just a few minutes ago. Stop at mid 1.5900s just under recent range lows.
Closed the short AUD/USD with 60 point loss........up 230 on the Pound trade and another 100 on the EUR/CAD short for a few days work.
Let's see how your call for a run to 1.6750 works out.
Not even worth the time to look at what the CBO says; they haven't been right in history.
Bingo. We have a winner!
My gardner is more legal than your gardner because at least I pay mine minimum wage.
And you 1099 him for that $7.25/hr, right?
Ummmm, I'll say it bluntly: first census during an african american's presidency & we have a net outflow of illegals?
I call bullshit. These stats are as reliable as the unemployment figures.
Though, good to see someone address the issue, however erroneously that might be.
Also, you may believe what you want, that Obama said this & meant it, but they're ALL a bunch of *^*&^ liars. He's no different, or special. We're bombing Libya. And, Fyi == MORE troops in region that during Bush, ie, so much for his promise of pulling troops out of Iraq/region. Remember Bush & smaller govt? Or "no nation-building?" Seems an ambien-driven short term memory is a prerequisite in this country now
Less work -> less illegal workers.
Would you camp out illegally here with no prospects or money to send home?
The hell with that crap. Quit screwing with my margin requirements.