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Wondering How Big Greek Deposits Outflows Are? Just Follow The EURCHF

Tyler Durden's picture


In the past we have repeatedly observed that in order to get an instantaneous appreciation of which direction all too critical Greek bank deposits held by the public are headed (hint: out), instead of waiting for delayed NBG data, one needs to only look at the EURCHF. As the chart below shows, the correlation between the two is essentially one. Which means that should this pair continue dropping to parity, in addition to making life for Swiss exporters a living hell and for Hungarian mortgage holders unbearable, that Greek banks will literally become hollow shells whose only lifeblood - depositor cash - is no longer there. And the more severe the lack of confidence in the outcome, the greater the outflow, the higher the likelihood of a disastrous bank run that wipes out the Greek banking system. Welcome to Catch 22 for the centrally planned, monetary union generation.

Chart courtesy of @Schaefdogschaef


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Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:15 | 1377240 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

But Stock markets up....

This is "just incredible"

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:20 | 1377253 Alea Iacta Est
Alea Iacta Est's picture

Today we do the magical levitate to max pain and then flatline.....OPEX magic!

Followed by monday market drop as the air is let out of the bag.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:20 | 1377257 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Certainly no pressing need for a QE3 at all, markets up near all time highs...I dont see what everyones clamoring about more free money to pump stocks for.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:24 | 1377268 Cdad
Cdad's picture

But Stock markets up....

This is so that criminal syndicate Wall Street misallocators of capital can sell their dumbass upside calls [to who I am not sure] to create the necessary liquidity to buy downside puts on Monday.  It's called "investing" and you should be embracing the wonderful "buying opportunity" because "valuations on equities are historically cheap" and "channel checks indicate upside earnings surprises."

**oh...and never mind this: **

/sacr off

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:25 | 1377272 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Channel checks'...what did CNBC do flip over to Bloomberg to see what theyre sayin?

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:31 | 1377280 Cdad
Cdad's picture

what did CNBC do

Not sure, but clearly they did not listen to the IMF.  That, like all other reality based news, is not as important as lingo, misallocation, crime waves, or shopping stories.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:47 | 1377321 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

All just pure fantasy, as the 'news anchors' sit high in the clouds above it all with their huge salaries which are safe as long as they continue to read the script handed to them, with the proper over exhuberance of course. As Rome burns.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:48 | 1377336 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Spot on.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 11:10 | 1377613 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

Let's not forget those stalwarts of investigative journalism; the Press Gallery. How entranced must one be, to be hand-fed pap on a daily basis, text it to your editor and still feel you are doing a standup job. How the hell will there ever be a chance of another Watergate, when the Rolling Stone Mag and the Comedy Club (?) are the only outlets with respected insights?

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 11:58 | 1377753 Clockwork Orange
Clockwork Orange's picture

Which channel did they check?  MSNBC?

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 11:58 | 1377754 Clockwork Orange
Clockwork Orange's picture

Which channel did they check?  MSNBC?

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:27 | 1377271 TheTmfreak
TheTmfreak's picture

If there was ever a bubble it would have to be the stock market. I mean without even looking at any of the detail (which seems to only confirm it) its obvious that stocks are priced because its assumed stocks go up. Just like houses. Can't wait for this pimple to burst.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:41 | 1377310 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

Stocks will continue to rise until the last man is no longer bearish. It's in the algos.. zap all short stops earn free money.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:47 | 1377324 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I believe theyre just waiting for the right events to be in place to seize $4 trillion worth of 401K's and pensions. Only thing that makes any sense. 

They certainly didnt pump all this crap up to ensure mom and pops comfortable golden years at The Villages retirement resort.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:30 | 1377277 Ray1968
Ray1968's picture

Buy the RIMM job.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:33 | 1377298 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Sell Netflix.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 10:01 | 1377377 Ikea nesting in...
Ikea nesting instinct's picture

The market has known for over a year that Greece would sertainly default.  I think what is more likely is that markets are realizing that the uptick in GDP-figures all around the world are artificial and not sustainable...

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:17 | 1377246 Robslob
Robslob's picture

Whack-A-Mole...banker style!

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:20 | 1377259 Archimedes
Archimedes's picture

I have been hearing about all of this Greece nonsense for three years now. Sarkozy says he is working on a deal for Greece and the lemmings pump the futures because all is saved.

When will this crap end? No one knows. I was horrified at myself this morning as I thought Harry Wanger may be right...with China buying Euro debt and the Fed /ECB printing money they can keep this lie going for another 20 years. (Sigh)

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:29 | 1377273 Hedge Jobs
Hedge Jobs's picture

markets are up on merkel comments confirming what a joke the markets have become that are now totally dependant on politician /central banker intervention rather than anything to do with the economy.

they will try to keep the lie going but id give them weeks or months, not years.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:43 | 1377320 snowball777
snowball777's picture

They will not be able to tapdance until September, no.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 10:48 | 1377529 The Fonz
The Fonz's picture

I agree. I look at these markets and I cannot think of who would want to trade them. The whole place looks rickety.  Even if the market goes your direction be it up or down its sort of schitso I don't even trust it when it goes my way... that has to ultimately mean FEAR and fear means DOWN (mabey, lol)

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 11:57 | 1377749 Clockwork Orange
Clockwork Orange's picture

Markets are up b/c the market makers are a cartel and having panicked everyone into short positions they can simply draw it up a bit into options expiration.  Max profits 101.

The real direction will resume on Monday.

They will then own puts and be shorting heavily.  

100% profitable trading days for Q2:  JPM, GS, MS, BAC ...

Monopoly.  Cartel.  Treason.

All sponsored by a Congressman near you.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:31 | 1377281 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yea but 'keep it going' is clearly not the plan in this pump and dump. One morning soon it will all just be gone, and the 401K bathrobe brigades will be listening to Bernank telling them 'All your pensions and retirement funds are belong to us'.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:48 | 1377339 qussl3
qussl3's picture

Lame AUD says it cant hold together much longer.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:22 | 1377267 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Cannot let the day to day juggling by the banksters and politicians change your position. Now, dollar down, by lunch time might be higher. Broken markets cannot be timed perfectly every day.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:27 | 1377270 Freebird
Freebird's picture

This is my simple solution for Greece. Sell forward 1 tril. Eur against the CHF, 6 month contract right now...Default & then become the masters of Europe....


Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:40 | 1377314 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

you skipped a step, buy gold then default.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 10:23 | 1377454 Freebird
Freebird's picture

Yes, sweet. Take the 200 bil chf on reaching parity but
also today sell fwd 200 bil chf against deliverable gold,
same expiry date. Scatter, you wanna work at a PD with me?

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:26 | 1377275 swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

In the meantime, i´m bankrupting my swiss banks because of my fx swaps.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:28 | 1377282 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

All greeks who have money in a deposit account in a greek bank should withdraw the Euros and open a new account in germany or other more stable Euro economy.  In the event of a defualt and kick from the EU, the cash euros will be stronger than the new greek currency.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:28 | 1377283 Ratscam
Ratscam's picture

quite some exposure of swiss banks to mortgages in hungary.

all fiat currencies will end up sour in the next financial shake out.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 10:12 | 1377402 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Worse still, the loans are CHF-denominated, so if the Swiss Franc holds its water (or at least is less ugly than the other girls), those Hunkies will be SOL.


Fri, 06/17/2011 - 11:15 | 1377625 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

Just dump it on those bog Irish tax payers. They seem to love the fucking they are getting from their latest rendition of a political messiah. Fucken Judas.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:33 | 1377284 HitTheFan
HitTheFan's picture

There's a guy called Tom Brown, CEO of Second Curve Capital just been on Bloomberg.

What a total fucking asshole. Talked such a load of bollocks about banks it was literally hard to believe. He must know he was just spinning a load of lies.

I wonder, how do people like that sleep at night, duping investors to make a living?

Having no conscience helps I am sure.

And the dopes from Bloomberg (Betty Boo, Dom Choo, and their economics guy) just let him have his say, and when they did challenge him (weakly) he just disagreed and cracked on with more bullshit spewing.

I live in the UK, but if I lived in the US, be nice to find out where guys like this live, and go have a meeting with him...

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 12:29 | 1377881 SilverDosed
SilverDosed's picture

I dont mean to slander the mentally disabled but they are all sociopaths and psychopaths. I read some numbers where CEO's are 4 times more likely to be psycopaths than the average citizens. I'd put this number much higher as their psychopathic behavior is prevalant, and even encouraged.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:33 | 1377285 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Empty Greek banks, bankrupt entities and governments: 

The whole system rests on keeping up appearances. It's a talent, you know. 

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:42 | 1377318 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

To me it is like they brought it all to a planned collapse, but now have cold feet. Maybe they dont see such a good outcome of their masterplan to pull everything down and bring it up in this great 'new world order' where the bankster overlords rule supreme and unquestioned in front of billions of willing slave servants?

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:45 | 1377326 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

That would presume that they're all that smart, all that unified and efficient. And that they trust one another (big and). Even the smartest crooks fall victim to their own greed and paranoia about their fellow crooks. 

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:50 | 1377342 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

OK, so what then was the reason for all the monetization, just to make things 'look good'? 

Not many question WHY they'd monetize $27 trillion to pump up markets, I dont think it was for the entertainment of day traders. I believe their end game is stealing $4 trillion worth of retirements and pensions to put on their 'balance sheets'.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 10:25 | 1377460 john39
john39's picture

the great work of the ages in is endgame.   do or die now for them.  most will never believe it, but this goes back before recorded history.  the story is written in symbols all around us, but most sleepwalk right past them.  money and economic collapse are just the means to an end, the end is power.  those seeking to consolidate power are luciferians, have been for a long time.  hidden in plain view, and not idiot kids playing death metal music in their basements.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 12:08 | 1377788 Reptil
Reptil's picture

Ah yes.. the "masterplan" theory. Supposedly drawn up in that "Devils Island Meeting". I don't know if this all is a cumulation of the careful preparation or just a recent cunning plan. I think it doesn't matter.

What worked flawlessly in the US of A, is going pearshaped in Europe. They thought they had it all set up: Divided political parties, Governments and Central Banks that went along, savers not alarmed because of the strong euro, and the ECB more concerned with the fate of "Europa" to care much about some civilian inconvenience. IF they'd even find out because the main stream media here are not covering this, or the french protest, or the spanish.. (or anything except meaningless crap) Moreover, they pulled the same trick last summer.. Perfect setup.

But now, push does come to shove, and instead of a foot in the door with a Greek bailout, not a greek or german regular person that actually wants this to happen. Oh we have to "help the greek" our government is saying (Minister De Jager). Now what would you know... It seems the ordinairy greek people don't want this at all. So what are these politicians blabbing about? Perhapse they have some higher knowledge of the "greek psyche" and we must interpret the molotov cocktails thrown as a cry for "help"? Yes that would make sense: Each protest march is really an encouragement to pledge eeh how much.. 1,5 trillion euro to the ECB to provide "liquidity". 1,5 trillion will dry up in the hot mediterranean sun, like spilled wine.

If they push this through, this summer, early august, there will be bad blood, between the savers and their banks. I think it could mean another "run on gold" like we had in 2010. It would be the logical thing to do, because throwing another 150 billion euro in that hole wouldn't be "tightening", now would it?

And they did two bank tests. They waved away protests that those weren't really enough, saying there was no danger. So.... in the straightforward mind of the dutch, german and swiss businessmind, they're on their own. Not one cent more from this direction. Or the government gets it. (parliamentary crisis ahoy!)


Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:35 | 1377288 Eddyspain
Eddyspain's picture

First people will squirrel away their savings. But they wont stop there.If the ECB keeps pumping Greek banks wait till banksters and insiders give themselves generous loans (promptly discounted in the ECB)...and then keep the funds abroad.In effect, a cheap option on an euro exit (because in this case euro loans would be repaid in drachmas, at great discount AND profit).

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:35 | 1377292 Ecoman11
Ecoman11's picture

Sorry guys I just woke up. Who the hell is buying all of  Euro and Greek bonds today?

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:39 | 1377300 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

ECB proper balance sheet

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:32 | 1377295 hungarianboy
hungarianboy's picture

Yeh Tyler, Here in Hungary we really have a big issue with this CHF strength :-(

In fact, about 80% of all loans ( Mortgages, personal loans and car loans ) are denominated in Swiss Franc. And as far as I know, Hungary borrowed about 10% of all Swiss Franc in the world!. Quite astonishing amount. Now the local governement is giving the civilians the possibility to fix the rate for 1:180. 1 CHF for 180. Currently it is like 220.

And most people got their loans between the 1:140 and 1:180. I'm not going to fix the rate trough the governement because I don't trust this setup and affraid of losing my GF's house to the governement. I rather open spot FX or Futures in the opposite direction for hedging. If anybody knows how this hedging works or know a link how to calculate it please let me know.




Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:39 | 1377299 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture


Fri, 06/17/2011 - 10:08 | 1377399 Ratscam
Ratscam's picture

try Saxobank in Switzerland

Stable trading platform on many operating systems. You can enter any amounts with an endless choice of currencies.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:41 | 1377309 John McCloy
John McCloy's picture

We know here that this is the bubble to and all and when I say end all I mean civilized life in most of the developed world for about 5 years. They have reached a point where so much political manure, lying, market rigging, coordinated planning and fraud accounting plus printed trillion and free money along with austerity and theft of savers and middle class is needed on a daily basis just to stay afloat.
With all this and the media telling us how great our kings policies are we are still seeing falling markets and home prices along with job loss.
How do they all think this will end? More like the beginning of the greatest world war in history.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 10:14 | 1377420 theMAXILOPEZpsycho
theMAXILOPEZpsycho's picture

hyperinflation then war...I've been calling it a long time now. So bring it on!

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:38 | 1377311 sangell
sangell's picture

I'm wondering how long it will be that along with their assets the productive people in the PIG economies move their asses out. That Schengen agreement is an escape hatch from austerity if people care to use it.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:43 | 1377312 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

That's right, kick the banks in the nutsake.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:45 | 1377316 John Bull
John Bull's picture the best with the spreads...

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:46 | 1377319 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

Oh dear, my eyes are watering going through these momo headlines which are supposed to feed the equity boner and then came this...

06-17 09:39: Greek PM says we are putting more emphasis on growth

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:52 | 1377328 LRC Fan
LRC Fan's picture

What a fucking joke these markets are.  Every time the market tries to plunge it floats up 5, 7, 9, 14, 17 points per minute.  Goes down, then magically lifts up again to new highs.    



Every single 10 minute chart looks like this: U|                                                    |

                                                                   | u U u V V u U vV u ^^^^^^^^^^

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:55 | 1377347 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

No doubt, this 'market' is now just a sad joke.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:47 | 1377334 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

I hear a lot of stuff about how deposits are declining because of their holders fleeing towards safety outside the juristiction but is not deposits primarily collapsing because of lack of loan creation withen the periphery

I would like to see a proper break down of this phenomena withen Zero Hedge and how these two forces interact.

In reality I doubt the need outside of Legal requirements for commercial banks to hold credit deposits -  Central Banks of each continent are the true banks operating a bit like the free banks withen America in the 19th century.

They can produce paper at will to service their clients.

Credit deposits merely shadow bank assets - they can both decline in unison.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:57 | 1377364 jmac2013
jmac2013's picture

Is this like saying "deposits don't matter", a-la Dick Cheney's "deficits don't matter"?

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 10:42 | 1377505 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

Deposits and defecits are two  different things.

Credit deposits are fluff - when banks decide not to lend  , deposits decline.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:47 | 1377335 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

OT: By the way, did anyone notice the spanish gems out today? Regional gubbermint debt continued soaring to the stratosphere in Q1 according to the Bank of Spain. Since they don't have market access anymore the question is who's funding them? Is it the local banks or ICO or...? The other nice indicator out today was the banks' bad loan ratio @ 6,36% in April which for the whole banking sector was up more than 15% YoY and abt 3,5% MoM. Like Salgado has been telling us everyday, it's all golden in Spain...

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:51 | 1377349 OutLookingIn
OutLookingIn's picture

China - doubling down.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 10:51 | 1377526 taraxias
taraxias's picture

Well done, thanks for posting this "hidden" little gem.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:52 | 1377338 holdbuysell
holdbuysell's picture


Tyler, Bankrate IPO today: priced at $15. Already trading down at $14.

That didn't take long.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:50 | 1377343 LRC Fan
LRC Fan's picture

All the recent IPOs have shit the bed.  P and LNKD suck balls.  AIG and C have also dropped hard ever since the reverse split.  Yet the market charges higher.  Hayyyy-yo!!!!  Dow 14k baby.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:52 | 1377340 OutLookingIn
OutLookingIn's picture

Looks like the Greek banks change back to the Dracma for cash! Since there will be no more Euros left in Greece to deal with!

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:51 | 1377346 LRC Fan
LRC Fan's picture

Consumer sentiment coming up here.  Look for a quick 50 point Dow drop followed by 6 consecutive candles of levitation.  Dow +150 by day's end, good news or bad. 

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:54 | 1377355 OutLookingIn
OutLookingIn's picture

Look for the LCI and the CSI to be holding hands as they go over the falls!

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 10:00 | 1377375 LRC Fan
LRC Fan's picture

Better than expected economic data-market ramps up. 

And you know if it was worse than expected it would...wait for it... never mind. 

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 09:52 | 1377352 shortus cynicus
shortus cynicus's picture

in addition to making life for Swiss exporters a living hell

OK, so now is strong currency bad? What is next: Bernanke should print more?


Sorry, but Swiss exporters are doing well. Their margins increase so they can lover prices, even wages too. Business can and must adjust.

As worker, I would be glad to get less payment in money worth more. At least my savings would make real gain and I would pay less taxes.

Slow deflation is natural and healthy state of economy.


Fri, 06/17/2011 - 10:00 | 1377373 jmac2013
jmac2013's picture

The whole argument about strong currencies hurting domestic exporters is a canard to justify theft of wealth through inflation.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 10:07 | 1377386 FieldMarshal
FieldMarshal's picture

Interesting.  This Tyler Durden is in Germany or a German-speaking country. 

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 10:05 | 1377391 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

This began long ago ...."the First Rats off a Sinking Ship swim the Farthest" they say:


Fri, 06/17/2011 - 10:18 | 1377432 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Information asymmetry is a motherfucker.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 11:26 | 1377666 anony
anony's picture


Fri, 06/17/2011 - 10:05 | 1377392 vegas
vegas's picture

As a cruel reminder while Greece burns to the ground and the general population is screwed for generations to pay for the bill; never, ever underestimate the ability of government [and for that matter the exchanges] to change the rules to totally ruin speculators at every level.

While, in theory, the Euro, Yen, and US Dollar aren't worth a warm pile of the Bernank's excrement, the trade to profit from all this is as tricky as ever. The race to the bottom isn't going to be easy or linear for any of the fiat currencies. Don't ever think any trade is a one-way street.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 10:17 | 1377430 snowball777
snowball777's picture

I see a slow and grinding 'oscillation' of FX with many 'lead changes', if you will, but the same ultimate endpoint for all currencies relative to hard assets.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 10:55 | 1377539 cognus
cognus's picture

its good to be reminded :)

What is getting virtually zero airplay in this regard is the revolution in Canada. When was the last time there was not just a conservative takeover of canada politik, but a WAY conservative, Fiscally conservative takeover of even ultra-hip-neo-marxian-Toronto?  The canadian PM says now he can eradicate the deficit in 3 years and given the sharp turn to business-friendly regs, I don't doubt.

Yet I see no sign of positive excitement [yet] in loonies   [no position to disclose.... yet]


Fri, 06/17/2011 - 10:28 | 1377469 swissinv
swissinv's picture

good one but at the moment we want to see sentiments:


Fri, 06/17/2011 - 11:32 | 1377675 FunkyOldGeezer
FunkyOldGeezer's picture

Do you guys REALLY want the world financial centres to COLLAPSE??????? REALLY???????

If so, why do you think you'd be spared any of the heartbreak and utter misery that would ensue?

I'm just asking.

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 13:47 | 1377826 Reptil
Reptil's picture

No, they're perfectly safe. We had "Bank tests" and they all passed with flying colors, so you needn't worry.


No really, seriously, that is a perfect example of doublespeak, what you are saying. The complete reverse is true. We're supposed to "help the greek people" too. While we're against the same bloody thing happening in our own northern countries. DO YOU REALLY THINK IT WOULD STOP AT GREECE?

It stops when they have it all.

To refresh memory:


Fri, 06/17/2011 - 11:58 | 1377739 Clockwork Orange
Clockwork Orange's picture


Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!