Wondering How Big Greek Deposits Outflows Are? Just Follow The EURCHF

Tyler Durden's picture

In the past we have repeatedly observed that in order to get an instantaneous appreciation of which direction all too critical Greek bank deposits held by the public are headed (hint: out), instead of waiting for delayed NBG data, one needs to only look at the EURCHF. As the chart below shows, the correlation between the two is essentially one. Which means that should this pair continue dropping to parity, in addition to making life for Swiss exporters a living hell and for Hungarian mortgage holders unbearable, that Greek banks will literally become hollow shells whose only lifeblood - depositor cash - is no longer there. And the more severe the lack of confidence in the outcome, the greater the outflow, the higher the likelihood of a disastrous bank run that wipes out the Greek banking system. Welcome to Catch 22 for the centrally planned, monetary union generation.

Chart courtesy of @Schaefdogschaef