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World FX Heatmap: Dollar Bloodbath
Remember those days when the dollar plunging (and the yen surging) meant a daily unwind in the carry trade, and a plunge in stocks? Neither do wo. Stocks are valiantly trying to confirm they are the most useless instrument ever, with bonds surging, gold skyrocketting, and stocks... about to go green (which is only due to increased speculation by MS as we pointed out yesterday, that the Fed will announce QE2 in one week). In the meantime, implied correlation in FX is starting to follow that of stock, as global capital flows are now one.
USD heatmaps:
Yen heatmaps:
EUR heatmaps:
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I'm short Euros.
Ouch.
I was short eurs...ouch
Why did you not use the Goldman recommendation as contrarian?
I get paid in euros but the minute i see the transfer I go buy gold
TD: Answer thyself.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/primary-dealers-prepare-invest-27-billi...
Re the $, now that the USDX has rolled over and is thru 82, its clearly headed to 80. However, the chart looks so shitty I'm thinking it's heading back to the lows of last December.
OK, hyperinflationistas, please answer: if the world accepts that hyperinflation is GONNA happen, what will the initial and long term reaction of the stock market be? Will it just ramp to 36,000, or crash first (and is there any historical precedent for any of this)?
Man, I have no idea. Can make a case for both a 30000 Dow and a 3000 Dow.
Therefore, the only stocks I own are junior miners.
JAG a steal at these prices
maybe but that's a shitty looking chart
As a card carrying hyperinflationista, I am not blinded by absolute values in the market as the yardstick of the effect of debasing. All the numbers will be the same once things spiral. $100 will be almost the same value as $1000 and $10000.
I have monopoly money here at home and the $1 note and the $500 note have the same value to me, in relationship to buying real assets I need in the world. Only in the contained monopoly board are those notes looked at any differently when purchasing assets.
There will be a new currency created, anyways. Virtually every government suffering from hyperinflation usually attempts to create a new(flawed) currency before accepting reality.
Marc Faber addressed this and used Mexico as an allegory. At best you break even with (hyper)inflation.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H0sS6a9RW2E&feature=player_embedded
Real asset stocks would probably soar, while stocks of companies that sell two pounds of shit in a one pound bag (phones) will probably tumble.
Infrastructure, utilities, grocers... all equities representing essentials I would have thought would weather the storm in an acceptable way.
But pointless lucury consumer electronic makers, retail chains selling overpriced coffee, and other non-essentials would probably be lucky not to go to zero.
SBUX is probably a nice short with Coffee rockn' on..
Inflation pulls the markets higher. This has been the theory for the past couple of years. Yes, your money is worth less but you'll have more of it by buying stocks in an inflationary environment. Better than trying to short, lose money AND have inflation bite you even harder.
I believe we are approaching a hyper-stagflationary environment. I have been proclaiming this for awhile now myself to friends. Look to the 70's for our future.
On the long run inflation will kill everything. If this would be any different, the US would be in much better shape today. The way the dollar was inflated since the FED has been founded is unprecedented and will lead to the complete abolishment of the dollar as the world reserve currency. Whether this is happening tomorrow or in 30 years time is everybody's guess.
I think we will have both inflation and deflation. Assets like houses, cars, appliances will be sucked into a deflationary environment whereas things such as food, oil, power, natural gas will succomb to inflationary pressures. Double trouble
By definition, if the world has ACCEPTED hyperinflation happening, the dollar would already be worthless, no?
There are so many ways this horrific clusterfuck Central Bank controlled Frankenstein could play out....
By definition, if the world has ACCEPTED hyperinflation happening, the dollar would already be worthless, no?
There are so many ways this horrific clusterfuck Central Bank controlled Frankenstein could play out....
DOW will be at 100K and a one oz of gold will be $100K for a 1 to 1 ratio.
our savant at Fort Dix, Martin Armstrong, has DOW at 36,000 before ultimate meltdown
And with Oil pushing back to $80/bbl the Fed's anti-stimulus just keeps taking...what exactly is the plan here?
1.) print money 2.) buy everything 3.) profit
+1
Gold Bitchez!!!
Also: odd - the party is not being extended to the financials today.
They NEED to pull back here to set up for the next attempt at a ramp higher. They've been running up in a straight line all month.
The S&P also needs to move up just a little bit more to touch the strong resistance overhead. Hopefully this will coincide with complete buying exhaustion.
They had a party yesterday. slight hangover. a couple lines of FED coke at lunch and all's well...
Very bizarre action today...and that is saying something given how the "markets" have been acting lately. This whole thing really has a bizarre feel to it.
we should stay "contained" at 2300 Naz, 1130 S&P... at least till the impending QE2 moment.
+many
I still can't get my head around TLT and GLD spiking at the same time. Someone is very, very wrong, and I'm waiting to take the short side against that lucky indiv.
Is there anything that MS has been right about in the past that would make anything they say believable. Stephen Roach is the only guy at the whole place who has any credibility.
WTF is going on with the AUDJPY?
AUDJPY's got nothing the AUDUSD, the daily chart is going parabolic, pretty crazy.
Are we still looking to traditional market statistics and metrics to guide in a market that has been so totally manipulated by govt' and central bank manipulations?
Ain't gonna work. The market will resume it's path to 36,000. I do admire Tylers persistence, But you can't fight the primal forces of nature. Ask Arthur Jensen. He'll tell you. Watch Network.
The currencies I normally watch revolve around the BRL. I check the POG in BRL usually, sometimes in EUR and JPY just to get a sense of how "benchmarked" it is, because some of the emerging market currencies aren't being used to provide liquidity or mop up toxic debt. The major CBs are active in the marketplace.
What I see is sustained gold momentum in all currencies. I'm not seeing any weakness in paper that the dollar has traded down against. We got 976 EUR, 105k JPY, 2156 BRL...these are all spitting distance from recent highs.
Meanwhile the AUD has shot back to .94, the CAD at .97, BRL at 1.7, but of yet no real crash in the POG in those currencies as a result of DXY weakness.
Trav,
I'm as much a gold bug as anyone here, but I don't consider 976 EUR to be "spitting distance" of the 1040+ EUR high from June. That's more than $82 USD below the previous high.
I guess it just shows that the gold bull still has a ways to go.
-1.62 in one day on the usd....i think john williams may have been a tad too conservative on the 6-9 months hyperinflation....even so, it will arrive...
if it destroys the bankster class, then bring it on, but i fear that it has designed it for its own evil ends....
we need some form of collective to keep them at bay... difficult tight rope... collusion never works in the end... and our solidarity gets captured for a meager price.
The price finding function of all markets is broken. Too many manipulations and manipulators, too many rumors and chaff mixed in amongst the facts, too many cotton candy stats from too many clown car governments. It's all just throwing darts now.
When all the central banks on earth each issue fiat money, the meta-risk is co-inflation. When each bank inflates at roughly the same rate, the FX cross should not change very much, but the price level in nominal currency units will rise in all currencies. Beyond co-inflation is a coordinated failure of fiat money in general, where there is no printing press of last resort.
That is why having various precious metals (gold, silver, brass, lead) is a requirement. And also other dual use items? Dual use: 1) personal utility; 2) appeal to others as barter. For example, apart from food and fuel, how much will generic viagra pills be worth in a pinch in the neighborhood swapfest?
Gold, silver, platinum, Swiss Franc, and Euro are all kicking butt today against the US dollar!
Let's keep in mind the classic relationship between (1) value in use compared with (2) value in exchange. Both are important. Stay balanced.
The central banks are all completely illegitimate cancers on the world economy
they all suck shit
and they do so deliberately
in order to help their master globalist banker douchebags steal the wealth of the world
I guess that means deflation is off the table bitchez
I found lots of interesting information here. I love zerohedge.
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