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World Gold Council Releases Third Quarter Gold Market Outlook
The WGC has released its complete Third Quarter gold market outlook. To summarize: major demand is seen out of China and India, whose surging populations will buy ever more PM due to "rising income levels, high savings rates and strong economic growth." Demand is seen coming from the jewelry sector, as well as from institutions, including central banks, and a jump in industrial demand "on the back of renewed growth in the electronics industry, due to the majority of semi-conductors being wired by gold." Nonetheless, even as demand continues growing, supply is rising as well: "On the supply side, we reiterate our projection that total mine supply is likely to trend higher. This is due to mine project expansions, a ramping up of production to meet the recovery in gold demand and the diminishing scope for producer de-hedging in 2010. Higher supply is also expected to come from China, Australia and US, although this may be partially offset by lower output from countries such as South Africa and Peru due to declining ore grades and rising costs." Ultimately, the only important question is whether QE will ever end. Anything less than a Yes answer, means there is virtually no upside limit to gold, absent an occasional correction.
From the report:
Outlook
- Increasing demand by the world’s two largest markets, India and China, as rising income levels, high savings rates and strong economic growth continue to push up consumption.
- Gold jewellery demand is likely to exceed that of 2009 due to an anticipated recovery in India, the most significant gold jewellery market, and continuing strength in China. While jewellery demand may face challenges ahead, the latest figures show that demand in key markets has shown resilience in the face of higher prices levels.
- Concern over fiscal imbalances and currency tensions will continue to support investment demand for gold. Aside from the recent additional US$600 billion of quantitative easing by the US, the weakening of the US dollar and associated fears of inflation, demand is also likely to be driven by higher gold price expectations, as well as increasing availability and accessibility of gold investment products to retail investors.
- Industrial demand, which has returned to long-term levels, is expected to remain firm on the back of renewed growth in the electronics industry, due to the majority of semi-conductors being wired by gold.
Key demand statistics:
- Total gold demand was 922 tonnes, an increase of 12% from Q3 2009. In US$ value terms, demand grew 43% to US$36.4 billion over the same period.
- Demand for gold jewellery increased by 8% from Q3 2009, with four of the best performing markets - India, China, Russia and Turkey - accounting for 63% of global demand. In value terms, global demand for the 12 month period ending September 2010 hit a record US$137.5 billion.
- Retail investment rose 25% from Q3 2009 to 243 tonnes. The largest contribution to total demand growth came from bar hoarding, which increased 44% from the previous year. The total value of net retail investments during the quarter was a record $9.6 billion, representing a 60% increase from Q3 2009.
- Total gold ETF demand fell by 7% from Q3 2009 to 39 tonnes. Following a remarkable surge in the previous quarter, which was supported by heightened sovereign risk and currency worries, this quieter period for ETFs reflects consolidation in the market, as it contemplated the prospect of QE2.
- Industrial demand has recovered back to pre-crisis levels of 110 tonnes, reflecting an increase of 13% from Q3 2009. This recovery was driven by improving demand for consumer electronics goods globally, in particular from emerging markets such as China and India, as well as an increased range of new technology products with gold components.
Full report (pdf)
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hoarding bitchez!!
I prefer the word stockpiling.
Doesn't the tern 'stockpiling' better apply to things like ammunition and canned goods?
It all depends on the quantity of gold, ammunition and canned goods.
UNG looks like a better trade than SLV
Generates electricity and heat to cook food and read too
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?s=slv
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?s=ung
On a long enough timeline...
UNG suffers from rolling its contracts into the winter months. It's one of those Wall Street inventions destined to lose money for investors.
DoChen, Bearer of True Money, please join me in stockpiling some precious silver on Novemeber 22nd or before! We will freegold!
Done my friends. My dealer gave it to me a buck over spot, some of it 60 cents over spot. Getting to know your dealer can be an act of resistance.
buying silver every day, extreme averaging in
Sheepdog, Mr Lennon,
Damn right stockpiling! Going to stockpile everyTHING that seems to be worth something.
Please, to all my friends here...
Do not forget to include books in your pile. I worry that we all take the ability to download whatever we want for granted. SO in addition to your Eagles, ammo and tinned hams, work on your library.
Just started The Gun, Colonel. So far so good.
Agree re storing books. But the way I churn through them, they would not last long!
Going to stockpile everyTHING that seems to be worth something.
Picked up 240 rolls of Scott TP yesterday at .65/roll. Obviously I'm full of shit.
You said it not me!
But, TP OK too. Bit bulky for a condo dwelling Bearing.
Stack it, and make a bed out of it...........extra BR.
For you guests that are FOS.
DCRB,
If you should find yourself and your stockpile travelling to Peru, do you anticipate your stockpile making it throught the TSA intact? Can trouble be expected while crossing boarders with au and ag eagles?
See below for my story re taking gold twice from the USA by air.
TSA did not even blink when my gold went through the machines. Technology may have changed though.
When (not if) things go bad, I would indeed expect bigger problems getting Au out. Best get started now! If you take less than $10,000 worth, you do not have to report it (on a special Customs form). You have a spouse, can take $19,000 per trip. You do that a few times to a country like Peru, that adds up to a NICE PILE.
...
Smart ZH-er Oracle of Kypseli as gone one step better: rural land in Peru!
Thanks! My mom's family is in Peru but they don't seem too keen on having me. My mom is really unhappy about my plans to leave Obamaland to its chosen fate. I suspect she has spoken with them......looks like I'm on my own as there is no spouse, just an Obama adoring long term boyfriend. When he becomes destitute, I imagine he might be more understanding of my position.
I'm already out of the country but at some point will have to leave here. I'm trying to figure out where to go next. My situation is very unique.
Mariposa, obviously I do not know your situation. If
1) you speak Spanish
2) you have your own money (so do not have depend on your adoring family there)
3) you have no special needs not available in places like Peru
4) you do not mind a Latin American culture (pluses and minuses)
5) you can get started soon
6) etc.
Then Peru is an acceptable option. Peru is our escape hatch if the SHTF.
...
As I have mentioned in other threads, the Big Question is:
Should I go or should I stay?
Take my dough to Peru and live like Royalty (Peruvian style anyway)?
Or stay here with my meager preparations and shoot it out if the .gov thugs show up and/or we slide into a TEOTWAWKI...
Most excellent ZH-er merehuman (who has had an interesting life and I respect immensely) told me......: PERU!
hablo poquito espanol. no hablo muy bueno. Tengo mas o meno dinero pero no tengo un 'stockpile' grande. Not to mention I'm on an island in the middle of nowhere. When I contacted my aunt her words were "were are also in danger". I've lived in Europe and two islands (different oceans). I could probably manage well enough just about anywhere. I just feel so vulnerable going to another country and not knowing anyone I can trust, even a little. Peru might still be an option as I could just show up,knock on the door and hope for the best. Of course, I'd have to get there from here which likely means a pass through the porno scanners.
Mariposa, likely as not by the time you are back this thread will be "yesterday".
I don't really know what to suggest. Peru IS POOR, so making a living by working will not be easy.
Re scanners, you could always opt for the "groin-oscopy" or like a friend of mine today suggested, just ask them to strip search you in a private room and tell they can LOOK all they want, but no TOUCH!
...
How much do you know about rolling bearings?
Good for you seeing the wrting on the wall, and not going with the flow.
Maybe Obama will make your boyfriend a corporal in the NWO.
He's little old for that. Maybe as a greeter at the FEMA camp? I'll have to hit with that next time he smarts off, lol.
And thanks for the congratulations about not going with the flow. Most people can't appreciate that tendency in me.
now post pics...and u'll have a spouse off of ZH lol
DoChen,
Question, WHERE in Peru,unless you have buried it, would one keep it?.
In their Banks?.Pls tell me no.
Now that TSA plays with your privates skin on skin, I do not see how you get thru with any Pm's.
The latest news is scary as shit.
You do not want to be Irradiated?,one interview said the dude's package was totally gone over,and even got the #2 slot, with his fingers.( that's some sick shit.(no pun intended).
These stories are all over the radio, with iphone recordings as it goes down.
Either way, I say if you want to get it out, ASAP is the answer.
Oh, as a side not, (this is true), if a Muslim woman come thru, she tells TSA how they can inspect, and where, and must be done by a Muslim woman.
I say we all start weaing Burquas,and full Saudi dress.
What say you?.
DosZap, mine is VERY securely hidden in Peru. No worries!
...
I have been hearing the latest groin-oscopy stories too!
If you want to get it out, YES, start ASAP.
I too heard that "Janet-from-another-planet" Napolitano wants there to be an exemption for Muslim women. So, if you decide to wear a Burqa, don't forget to shave! Don't forget the legs!
LOL, but practically makes me want to F**KING CRY about what has happened to our America...
Still buying gold and its crazy little brother silver.
Show me (ooops, Give me) the metal
SWR,
O/T, a few days ago you suggested that 23188K was for wind turbines. Turns you are right. We're still looking for 50 of them.
Bearings and Rare Earths, bitchez!
I love it when you talk shiny to me Baby!!
MsCreant, they heard you. They are buying silver. Now please join me in buying silver on or before the 22nd to honor our President who had wished before he stepped down from life for the currency to be backed by the aforementioned precious metal.
See above you Precious Metal Meddler you, see above. ;-) War is fun.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=shcI6vE-PlE
Count me in!
Me too.
Anything less than a Yes answer, means there is virtually no upside limit to gold, absent an occasional correction... (add to this:)
...false flag event, continued manipulation, lapdog media red herrings, etc.
Inflation is here. Overnight, my large regular coffee went from $2.00 to $2.15.
Gold bitchez!
But, but... the gubermint said there is no inflation. So did Bennie...
It's been over 10% for 3yrs, ask the Pac Rim folks about inflation.
We have hidden inflation.
How to see Inflation for Dummies.( look at you cost, and your ounces stupid!).
New at Amazonian Press!.
Check out JAG--a junior gold miner in Brazil. Even though gold has soared this year, JAG has dropped due to start-up costs in a new mine and dilution in production at another. But JAG's revenue has increased 38% in the most recent quarter compared to last year. And, production at a new mine "Caeté" is going to double in the next quarter from ~8,000 ozs to ~16,000 ozs. Do your own DD, but if gold just holds these levels, JAG is poised and is due for a turnaround within the next 60-90 days.
There are few rivals to the WGC for most useless organizations... all they do is count earrings and pendants...
Getting awfully close to thinking about shorting GLD or SLV but I'm not sure what the result would be of the final transparency of 100:1. Would they just pay off everyone with funny money or just disappear?
Say I live in Europe (EU) and want to take my physical to abroad, say UK or Switzerland. Can I just take it in a carrier bag and be allowed to go through the airport inspection? Should I mail to switzerland? In general, how is gold transported accross borders around the world by us regular people? What risks are there?
I'd take a train to avoid airport security.
If it is a large amount, more than you can easily carry, you should probably have it moved via armored car to your destination vault.
"via armored car to your destination vault"
not quite in that league, and trains are hard to come by ...from here.
Perhaps a ferry to Sweden...before the socialist Finnish govt closes the borders.
Did you know Finnish head of state used to be DDR stasi spy? Enough reason to get my wealth out of here...
(writing via VPN in a free country so try and find me, I know how to protect my property ;-))
A car is fine too. Any means of transportation the doesn't require a search. Gold is easy to hide on your person. Do so.
So long as you don't get x-rayed. How about those mobile x-ray vans the HSA is putting on the streets of America? Not only is there no 'right' to fly, apparently there is also no 'right' to leave your house....I presume the vans are headed to Europe as well?
Take the last train to Clarksville and I'll meet you at the station. I'm out of my brain on the 5:15. Baby says she's traveling on the one after 909.
I have taken gold outside the USA twice by air.
First time I took 40 oz (when Au was $900). The law says that you have to fill out a Customs form (as it was worth over $10,000) when you take out a liquid asset. I had a hard time getting the form and working with the Customs moron-nette. She made some calls and then tried a trick question out on me. I told her the coins were worth $36,000 (not the face value $2000). "Right answer" she said. Nazi bitch.
The second time my wife and I each took 5 oz (at about $1100) and just did not "do" the Customs form crap (and yet still stayed legal).
Both times we took them with our hand luggage. Neither time did the TSA Stormtroopers take any note at all of the gold going through the machine, not even the 40 oz. <--- That may have changed, beware!
...
nontax, you might travel by train if the entire trip is within Europe. I have never had any kind of inspections (other than passport when crossing the France / Spain border) in Western Europe.
I was traveling with 10 oz of silver last month, and it went through the machine, and they pulled it out to look at it. On the way back, I kept it in my pocket. It didn't set off the metal detector. This was NOT international travel.
With regards to "worth", I THINK it depends upon the country you are in, the country that issued the coins and whether or not the coins are legal tender in that country.
Do,
Ok, lets analyze this shit.
The FACE value of a coin LEGAL TENDER is $50.00.
The Gv't, has it cost based at what?, $42.00oz?.
How in the hell do they give anyone any shit as long as the total face value is not 10k?.
Sounds illegal to me.
The Government sets the price, and sets the face value, and if you tried to use it, you legally are entitled to FACE value.
Where am I incorrect legally?.( I know, it's logical,therfore, it wont stand Gvt scrutiny).
That's what I thought. If they want you to claim any liquid asset, does that include jewlery? I wear 22k. Will they take it off me for not having some customs form??? Crazy....
DosZap, believe me they have the law. I cannot cite it, but I have seen it in writing. You take cash or near cash over $10,000, you have to fill out the form. DO NOT try to sneak out $10,000 or more without filling out the form. Take out a little less if you want do it quietly.
You still CAN take out big quantities of cash, gold, etc. Just have to fill out the form so Uncle Sugar gets to know.
On the other hand, since that (my taking PMs out) was awhile back, AND due to the fact that I worked for the feds long ago (and so seeing how incompetent parts of .gov really are), it may be that .gov actually going back into the paperwork vaults looking for exporters of gold might be hard for them or not even worth it.
Bottom line: You want to get gold out, get started now!
Alternatively: Wire money to relatives (friends, companies) you can trust. Then buy gold "there".
DoChen,
Serious question, to you, or anyone.
Might I ask how did it go thru?.
In your carry on?.
Also, did you have recipts for where you purchased it, just in case they decided to RELIEVE you of it?.
I have heard(true) accounts of folks going thru with cash, and they got it taken way, and was 2-3yrs of court and cost was equal to TSA theft.(this dude was a Landscaper, and did business in Mexico, and his growers only accepted dollars).
He had been doing business this way for years.
It was only $13k.
I can just see you marked for death on landing if they poured into one of their plastic buckets.
Gahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
DosZap, yes both times I took gold out was in our carry-on bags. Went right through the machines TSA goons didn't even blink. Beware though, the technology may have changed!
See my above comment for more details.
...
I too have heard about cash seizures at airports, even for domestic flights. And that it VERY hard to get it back from .gov.
If you have anyone you TRUST overseas, wire them $50,000... OK, it DOES leave a trail, but those assets are OUT. Then go there, and "lose" it all at the Casino... Ah, well, life really sucks when you are unlucky!
But, in all probability, if you take $9500 in Au and/or cash (total), you will likely NOT have problems, for now anyway. And you do not have fill out stupid Customs forms and so you can get that OUT quietly.
Coin dealers take tons of valuable coins through TSA all the time when going to trade shows etc. I understand they often just ask for a private screening, so Joe Passenger doesn't see what the dealer is carrying. Not sure if things are different when they travel internationally. Can probably do a search on flyertalk.com for more info.
If you travel overseas, make sure that you have a in country connection. Example: NY Atlanta S. Zurich.
The TSA will only see the NY Atlanta boarding pass. Once in atlanta you do not go through check again.
Just go with a family van from germany to switzerland.
Of course if you wear a business suit and drive a Audi A8 you will be checked.
The point is: -> if you and your car look to poor you will be checked for drugs such as weed
-> if you and your car look to rich you will be checked for illegal money transfer to switzerland
It actually also shall work the other way around, when you buy silver bars in switzerland with a VAT of only 7.6% compared to 19% in germany.
+1 absolutely correct.
Traveling by car or train (not airlines), crossing borders within the EU you hardly ever get checked. Even if you do get checked, you never get the "special sexual service", the pattying down like in the US, hence carry your precious metals on your body.
In case you get caught, you'll have to pay the VAT of the entrying country and some additional penalty of max. the VAT value.
Best to buy gold and silver in Switzerland
1) Abundance of physical supply
2) low bid/ask spreads on bars
3) credibility of Swiss melters (Heraeus) and banks like ZKB etc.
4) security of storage in a Swiss vault. The content always belongs to the tenant of the vault, even if the bank goes belly up, which UBS and Credit Suisse unfortunately will.
Rats,
4) security of storage in a Swiss vault. The content always belongs to the tenant of the vault, even if the bank goes belly up, which UBS and Credit Suisse unfortunately will.
Wanna bet?,if Sammy wants access, you lost it.
Rats,
4) security of storage in a Swiss vault. The content always belongs to the tenant of the vault, even if the bank goes belly up, which UBS and Credit Suisse unfortunately will.
Wanna bet?,if Sammy wants access, you lost it.
I also prefer to have it under my pillow than in any banks vault
Looking at Swiss constitution and its history - i doubt it!
Then again - playing the squirrel is a safer method
What if your a citizen?, still have to pay VAT?.
Just a thought. You could move into an account at GoldMoney and then you could move anywhere in the world and your PM would be safe.
"It's impossible for prices to go down this year."
- Gary Watts, Spokesman Orange Country Association of Realtors
And that year was 2005
"There is no national housing market, so there can't be a national house-price bubble."
- Michael Youngblood, Managing Director, Friedman Billings Ramsey & Co
"The end of the decline of the Stock Market will probably not be long, only a few more days at most."
- Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics at Yale University, November 14, 1929
I read a similar line in a Bloomberg piece just this morning, about how the market decline here was expected (by who?) and certainly only has a couple hour lifespan before race-up resumes.
All is well, minions, back to work.
"All safe deposit boxes in banks or financial institutions have been sealed... and may only be opened in the presence of an agent of the I.R.S."
- President F.D. Roosevelt, 1933
What is that a postscript? "Gold down on Ireland worries"? Oh. Never mind. I'm reading Kitco.
Stockpile less-than-precious metals now, lead, copper, brass.
Just added another 500 rounds of .223
In addition to ammo, consider adding US $0.05 nickels, now worth a bit over $0.06 in metal value:
coinflation.com
Dupe post sorry. ZH has been acting weird lately. The Empire Strikes Back?
December is historically the month that gold apreciates the most. Last year Barricks sold their Hedge Book; the flood on the market lowered price. A hedge book is a forward sale of gold to banks, thus Barricks has left the banks without gold contracts. This year should see December have at least a 10% gain, with 20% being vey likely, to a high of what I believe will be around a 40% gain in the price of gold.
Everyone from George Soros to my next door neighbor is bullish on gold. Given the race-to -the-bottom currency wars, gold seems like a no-brainer. But the whole commodity complex seems to be moving in highly correlated lock-step and is at a major new multi-year high. If the commodity complex get a big whiff of deflation ala double dip recession, then gold will likely fall along with the group.
Then hold some cash too!
Everyone who can should hold, say, three months of genuine FRNs, in case of deflation, ATM & bank closures, etc.
You are wrong, gold is a great store of value and wealth during deflationary times. Although I would not label the last 2 years as strictly deflationary, there has been massive deflation (I like to think of inflation and deflation pushing on the economy at an equal force from two sides for the past two years. Think of it like popping a zit.). Gold has bettered every other asset class, which is why there are so very few trolls around. :)
buy GOLD???? definitely...just read in MISH's blog.....$650 BILLION exposure of European banks to IRELAND alone....what the fuck....this is why they are paying 150 BILLION dollar bonuses......cant even imagine how much of money is owned to banks of other countries....
<sarcasm on>
but, but, i thought gold was just a useless rock?
<sarcasm off>
Here is the thing: Banksters don't appreciate it because they can not wipe their asses with it, and they have tried. You see, banksters only appreciate things they can wipe their asses with.
...other Bankster faces?...that is when they are not yachting.
Ha! Absolutely oddjob. Sheila Bair wipes her's all over small bankers every Friday!
Platizow you are killing my high.
OMG! I just got a visual of Sheila 'scooting' across the carpet. WB where are you?
:o)
Bankers can indeed wipe their asses with gold - it is extremely maleable - like gold flakes in liquer and gold leaf for art.
Side affect = Sparkling Dingle Berries, not to be confused with sparkling wiggles:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luve-lex9nQ
Postor's report cites Gold Demand up 15% YOY while Gold Supply up 18% YOY; how does this report support higher gold prices?
"Supply" did NOT rise 18 YOY. "Production" rose 18% YOY. This is a HUGE difference when you are talking about gold, all which that has ever been mined is still in use. That increase in production amounts to something like a 1% increase in actual supply, while total demand is up 15%.
Make sense now?
they are paid actors...dont pay attention
Another gold b****s story?
That's so Q3
Today is one of the quietest days I have seen in a long time. Bernanke done selling (leasing) gold (tungsten) to the IMF/World Bank? Ah and silver is so hot right now!
wait another few days and all hell will break loose...the thing is there will be no physical around...
As long as real interest is negative gold
will continue to climb.Gold could get a
big pricedrop if they start raising interest
rates.This will be a beartrap because
at that time inflation will even rise faster.
The fed will not be able to rise interest fast
enough without bankrupting everybody(gouverment,
private sector,housing,banks etc)
Fed is trapped
As long as real interest is negative gold
will continue to climb.Gold could get a
big pricedrop if they start raising interest
rates.This will be a beartrap because
at that time inflation will even rise faster.
The fed will not be able to rise interest fast
enough without bankrupting everybody(gouverment,
private sector,housing,banks etc)
Fed is trapped
As long as real interest is negative gold
will continue to climb.Gold could get a
big pricedrop if they start raising interest
rates.This will be a beartrap because
at that time inflation will even rise faster.
The fed will not be able to rise interest fast
enough without bankrupting everybody(gouverment,
private sector,housing,banks etc)
Fed is trapped
SS,
Tourettes acting up again?.
#@#(&*%^%~%*_$())))))))))*^%
(<;
If you are bored over the holidays read Bernholz Monetary Regimes and Inflation, published in 2003. With respect to a paper-money regime in a democracy:
Given these realtionships it is tempting for the ruling party to finance part of the public deficit by creating money, that is by taking refuge in borrowing from the central bank. This prevents, at least for some time, higher short-term interest rates....
It should be mentioned in this context that there has never occurred a hyperinflation in history which was not caused by a huge budget deficit of the state.
For the dollar, euro, GBP, and yen we've already crossed the event horizon. If I were a patriotic central banker I would be quietly printing paper money and buying gold with it, because Bretton Woods III is coming.
this scenario is too rosy. if they are counting on indians to lift the price of gold, good luck. And what rising incomes and surging populations. Population growth in india and china is trending down. People are not saving that much as they have not enough income to cover rising prices. Computer circuits? Come on, how many computers will it take to matter in terms of tons of gold and who will buy all those computers? gold is insurance, that's all. its price is not going to go to the moon and if it does the money you can exchange it for wont be worth more than it is in terms of gold now. I have said it before, if you look at the gold shops in asia where you live or when you travel you will not see very many people in them, unlike five years ago when people had money to spend for gold.
In gold we trust.
In reality we trust.