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WTI Passes $109
WTI surges courtesy of a disastrous UK economic update, and expected ECB tightening. Oh wait... That must mean QE3....No....That's impossible. The San Francisco Fed said just this Monday that there is no correlation between monetization and surging commodity prices. And stocks surge just because in Weimar America, $109 crude is bullish for stocks. This will end in tears.
And in the meantime in Europe...
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No inflation right Ackman? Sheesh....
Forewarned is forearmed?
This may or may not help. Just an fyi:
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/04/others-to-watch.html
The military expedition in Libya was just to warn our old buddy Gaddafi to sell us is light sweet oil for cheap and respect the multinational oil corporations.
It was a message: do it or we'll turn you into another Saddam.
Neither side wants to end up dead or in an extremist quagmire. That's why we're pulling out.
Where are those guys that were trying to convince me that oil was a screaming short?
Short oil with summer driving season approaching? Not to mention that the Mid East's hair is on fire?
Check out the exchange here on Monday:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/oil-market-speculation-argument-be-tested-wti-rollover-cycle
Can you believe that I was accused of talking my book? Hilaripus
"For example, often times traders know that a large base of positions have to be rolled over, so they close out their positions, and wait for the selling to end before then buying the next month`s contract to keep their original bias in the market. Some traders even short the market at the same time they are closing out their original longs because they know that a large roll of longs will be closed out, so they piggy back on the rollover for additional profits. This is oftentimes why you experience 4 or 5 days of weakness due to the selling, and shorts piggybacking on the rollover, with two days of strength in the expiring contract as the shorts have to go long to close out their positions before the contract expires."
Yes, common practice in many commodities.
Check out the chart on the rollover effect for the past 9 months in WTI ...I don;t have it handy, but there was one floating around at seekingalpha
Flak -
You must admit, you did not know the middle east was going to have issues when oil was under $95. Thats really what's driving this run up.
Turmoil in middle east is due to inflation. You can keep denying it but its the truth.
Exactly.
"Nobody could have seen it coming" except for those who did. Some fools don't know snakes from dildos about economics. Funny that they are universally the ones telling us all is well.
I reply to you, but this is meant for everyone. How the fuck can anyon be an Au/Ag advocate and not be an oil bull? I trade the cash flows...
Any thing that drives down the price of oil will also affect PMs...
All roads really do lead to the Bernank.
The Cushing glut serves a purpose - it allows the US media to talk about 110 oil instead of 125. As an added bonus, some dumb spec trader caught holding the paper on expiration day can lead to a $10-20 drop in closing price, which the media will jump on during the evening news, before the price print is magically erased at midnight, just like in that other fairy tale.
I was just browsing Banzai's website and came across this gem (must have missed it when it was posted on ZH)
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_wkgIzuqJM0w/TBpZ7mTkGvI/AAAAAAAAFCg/WiKUszwamV...
Needless to say, My keyboard is now drenched with my afternoon latte :]
My co-workers have been complaining about gas prices... I told them, welcome to world wide Benocide!
Just before the driving season, look out for the pre-season show of burst pipelines, refinery "scheduled maintenance" shutdown and fire and small explosions in the other ones. All unforeseen events, of course.
PAtience FlakMan -- there will be a great opportunity to short oil....timing is central obsession.
Oil price goes two steps up, one step back
in concert with GDP which goes one step up, two steps back
till the oil is gone
not if you do a DOUBLE SHORT ;)
Right. Why is DTO moving northward when crude is up 108 to 109?
2 one thousand
3 one thousand
4 one thousand
tttttuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuutttttt....
time of death 10 o'clock...
SD, curious. Are you the same chap with the Sudden Debt blog? If so, good stuff.
In person, Sudden Debt has the ability to speak in CAPITAL BOLD LETTERS
hehe
Shorting anything in this market is the mark of a true madman. If someone tells you to short something, ANYTHING, in terms of dollars, you can most likely write them off as insane, stupid, or both.
Well maybe bonds and the inverse PM ETFs (if you can find some to short)
Not even those. If the ETF's are found to be fraudulent, they will go to zero.
This is why a nice bet is to short GLD or SLV, and go long physical metal. Unfortunately, in practice, they won't let you take delivery of the bullion you bought with the proceeds of your short, which means a LOT of extra risk, as any custodian is likely to screw you over, charge you for storage on non-existent bullion, and then go bankrupt before you can get your metal.
He's down below, named 'RainBowTrader' or something.
No matter what bigoted Ron Paul-worshipper, anti-Federal Reserve, anti-State libertarians say, the global economic recovery is on the march, and nothing will stop it.
When the SHTF, tell your old lady to come shack up with me. If your lucky, we'll come visit you and I'll throw you some pieces of bread like I do with the birds.
Tool.
dude, Hamy is a comical farce on purpose. You should laugh.
No, he's not funny.
Can't you tell she's not a dude? Look at her cute icon. Even if she is expressing lesbian tendencies we shouldn't judge.
Was that the personality behind RT's Mum, or RT's Mum wanting to shack up with a chick? Interesting, either way....
Tears are already being shed, just ask the Libyans. QE3 roundabout September I reckon. By this stage oil will be upwards of $150 a barrel, Syria would have been engaged with Iran on the targets, not to mention the fallout of Fukoshima impacting the economy. By this time Bernanke will turnaround and say it is necessary for the survival of the global economy, we all know what he really means however.
what else could they say, really. They have no choice but cannot admit it, ever.
The coming economic and financial collapse will be something never seen before. Every ponzi scheme comes to an end and this one will make no exception.
wti futures not good reference for crude price in the US and cant compare to 2008 since WTI now trading at deep discount to US Gulf crude oil. LLS in the gulf is at 125.50 $/bbl...
This price surge in oil is purely due to sophisticated driving habits of developing countries.
Nice....I have to file this one
'humming' my way to death...killing me softly...
lol... SA Princes drive big Mercedes everywhere at ~ 80mph, stopping at no stop signs. Consequently they are being eliminated from the gene pool rapidly.
Yeah God damn those fearmongers called the 'IEA''.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil
Open your eyes, we're hitting peak as we speak.
good gravy....sounds like a bunch of women in a room with a single small mouse. Yeah, its all over folks...pull the trigger NOW!
And equities are up...why? Again, did I miss something this morning? Silver @ 31 year high, gold @ nominal all time high, oil @ about a three year high...with gasoline trending ahead of the oil slope this time....again. why is the equity market higher?
It must be the good news at Fukushima...right? I heard they plugged a crack in a pool.
It must be all the good economic data our of Europe...like the auction of Portuguese debt which was "successful" in the words of the BlowHorn [yep, that is a quote]. Or stagflation confirmed?
It must be US housing? Collapsing orders in China? Maybe E. Burnett is just really ramping the adorableness factor? Everything is running on UnicornDew power? 'Cause Cramer pointed out the completely farcical moves stocks have been making...and then deduced that this signaled that farcical things would continue?
It must be stability in Egypt, Syria, Yemen.
Again, why is the equity market up?
...oh...I know...the just released news that cash is pouring OUT OF long ETFs?
...wait...I know...that tons of people HAVE TO SELL Apple?
POMO
technically equities are only up in fiat terms - in gold terms they are down. I prefer to think that the market reach peak irrationality shortly before it corrects.
DOW is about where it was at the beginning of 2007.
Silver has roughly tripled in price from that same time.
Priced in dollars, DOW is flat. Priced in true money, silver, DOW has fallen to a third of what it was, in real terms.
TD - can you clarify something - when you say "this will end in tears" - do you mean
a) Tears from the eyes as the world gets upset at another crisis which it was 'promised' by 'lying politicians' would not happen again.
b) Tears of shredded paper as FIAT currency is torn up and burnt
The people need to know these things, will it be hanky's or wheelbarrows at dawn?
Tears from the smoke of up in flames fiat.
The French Assignats were burned:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assignat
They are holding XLF at the 50 day MA. Major resistance. If they can't pop it through, the rally is over for the short term. Surging oil will not help it's prospects.
well, maybe you should follow the DJUSFN. It has been sitting ABOVE the 50dma for several days.
Rounding error. They both need to bust out.
A. Joseph Cohen on CNBC this morning, pimping for Bernanke (which is equivalent to GS). Her spin: "focus on fundamentals" (YGBSM) in equity investments for the long term, and inflation is only "modest."
Translation: Bernanke is going to have to dump the stock market in the short term to crush to gold/silver/oil trade.
So, is GS (prop) now betting on an early end to QE2?
I don't think that will work as much as they might hope.
If Ben thought it would work well he would have already tried it. Ben's problem is that PMs and oil are now slipping away from dollar control. Think about it.
Since March 2009 The Bernack has had to crash the stock market to bring down gold/silver/oil trade.
The more he digitizes/prints, the more commodities go up.
Ok this is weird... look where oil was 3 years ago... 1 day off from today.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crude-gains-nearly-3-other-energy-futur...
Pulled this from MW archive. Is history repeating itself? Crash in September again?
In an unrelated note, Denninger mentions ZH
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=183684
who cares if doofinger mentions ZH. long winded worthless opinions.
Except someday soon, he'll have been right all along. Get it?
KD 'borrows' posts of others without attribution...
Like theGreatPonzi said in the $40 silver thread.
"It's not gold and silver which worry Bernanke right now, but WTI crude, which is at the highest level since september 2008.
His worst nightmare is coming to reality. "
Good! Our only chance of survival is Bernankes demise!
His worst night mare comes true when Blythe climbs into bed with him and says..."take me to the moon, this is getting too hot for me on earth, we're two of a kind"...QE-inifinty will really rocket then! Can't say "no" to dame like that, even if it means...deep core melt down into oblivion! Wake up time! Benocide!
401(k) tears?
There will be no warning. I love looking at history, for instance Google 'DOW plunges 777 points' and read the articles from that day...quotes of 'totaly unexpected', 'shocking', 'caught all expert analysts totaly by surprise' thruout those stories.
If people are waiting for the pre-plunge announcement this time, it will again catch them totaly unaware, and probably on a soothing uptick as well.'
And ironically everyone (save for ZH) still cares and listens to what these boobs have to say....that's what's shocking, that these people haven't been disgraced and put out to pasture.
These are the same comments we'll hear when the next plunge comes.
here's some free advice. Ignore the fucking news. Its either a lie or the twisted truth. Either way, it really doesn't matter when trading from the charts. All it does is fuck up your head enough so you'll pull the trigger on a trade to early or late. Maybe if we ignore them, they'll go away and STFU.
'Trading from the charts'?
AHH HA HA HA HAAAA HA HA HAAAAAAAAA!!!
Technical analysis is a sect destined to dumb and naive people, a bit like Scientology.
It has gained traction in the 2000s to attract retail liquidity to the futures markets, despite being supported by no facts at all (and being neither refutable nor provable, because if you deny technical analysis, technical analysts will just say you're not enough experienced/intelligent to understand it).
Thiz iz fuggin hilariouz.
Possible key outside reversal day on OIH.
Maybe crude has finally topped out?
RIGHT! Now crude will go lower because all is well or something.
Crude oil pole-axed on inventory "glut"
RobotTrader - Wed, Mar 30, 2011 - 10:34 AM
Once again, the Peak Oilers were foiled again.
Looks like the long specs are finally running for the hills
Yea right...wait till you see the oil chart when Saudis, Iran, and Israel throw down pretty soon. $300 barrel overnite.
another michael jordan leap from the free throw line, backboard shaking slam dunk from itg.
Or refeuling. Look look for a lower low. Must break 164.30. 200 (15) MA looks like springboard. Textbook cup with handle on daily.
It's officially over. Good call. And all while the $US continues to tank. These coxxukkers are amazing.
OIH and XLE at LOD......
USO has been going straight down since the inventory glut was announced this morning.
fool, uso is up for the day. do you really believe folks don't fact check your braying donkey remarks? uso is currently trading above its 52 week high.
btw: jim sinclair eagerly awaits a call from you to school him on investing?
But gas supplies are down.
Make less gas, store more oil. Lower barrel price and collect more at the pump.
Brilliant.....
I shorted WTI going into Europe and picked up 40 cents. Then blew out of it. This freaking speculation is a joke. Look at cushing supplies!
but equities are going up because everything is great (and not nasty speculation)?
At this rate I'll be eating pizza flavored Cheerios for dinner, in an Italian restuarant lit with candles made from earwax.
The Cushing glut should call the tune on a WTI backwardian...unless this is inversed contango dance time...I think I'll take up Venezuelan citizenship!
As of 9:30am, as usual, the USD begins it's daily plunge into the abyss...but no doubt this has nothing to do with oil prices....or gold...or silver...or corn...or cotton...
These people looking at fundamentals like supply, demand, and storage and technical charts are in for a rude awakening soon. Purely a war and dollar plunge cause-effect.
Precisely.
Purely, like throwing darts with the lights turned off!
David stockman weighs in......
http://inthearena.blogs.cnn.com/2011/04/06/david-stockman-republicans-need-to-man-up-and-shut-the-government-down/
And Euro straight up since ~ 9:30am...
http://finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=EURUSD
Here comes the Bernanke Call
Watching a castle in the sky collapse is entertaining...if I am not living in it...
Crude
Target 99.33.
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/99er-charts-0
I agree, that is a pretty wedge! What charting software do you use, I like your charts.
Hey Gordo. Learn to draw a TrendLine!
? I use IQC but not fond of it.
Gates, Saudi King Discuss Defense Relationship
http://www.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=63444
So Gates has an open invitation, and his boss can't even get someone to answer the phone.
come'on 7's baby
The stock, commodity and currency exchanges have been reduced to gambling dens whereby the more powerful traders with deep pockets move the markets to maximize their own profits at the expense of the remaining not so powerful players. The big boys have enormous money power to move the markets in the direction which results in maximum profits for themselves. They effectively use the media to lure the other players in the market to a position where they would incur maximum loss.
The markets will fall only when the banksters have eliminated all the short positions and only they themselves have positioned themselves to profit when the market falls
OR
When an unexpected world event catches the banksters with their pants down and the softwares they use to rig the markets go berserk beyond their control.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article24581.html
A thread filled with conversation about what etf is doing what or will do what.
Not a word about what happens as old fields like Canterell die. At the ripe old age of . . . 30. Just 30 years after production started and it's dying. And just 8 years after peak of 2.1 mbpd in 2003. It was 460K bpd at the end of 2010. Freefall.
Look. For your own good. All of you. Forget the market for 20 minutes and go read about Canterell.
Your future is there. It explains more or less everything in an extrapolative sense. Mexico's horrific future is explained by it. It is what is ahead for each one of you.
Soon.
Is there any indication whatsoever that it might not happen tomorrow?
any insight welcome
As it should have done during early April, according to my shock long term impact based pattern analysis which resulted in this forecast on Febryuary 6th.
http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&st=0&sk=t&sd=a#p30486
This time, Brent will reach 125-130 USD before going down, probably, because Libyan question will be resolved soon. But there are more supply disruptions to come, so average growth of Brent this year to 145-160 in Q4 2011 will be enough to put the USA into recession in q1 2012 ( when oil will still continue to grow to Brent 180-200USD)
http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&st=0&sk=t&sd=a#p30485
UM UM UM, Nobama gas!
Drill nowhere, nohow, notime!
LOL, Nobama is actually hurting his core constituancy the worse, the poor! LOL
But, wait there will probably be a USDA/JPM gasoline EBT card issued any day now!