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Yen Euro Carry Trade Collapsing, Pushing DXY Higher, Stock To Follow (Inversely)?
The Yen-Euro trade just took a sharp turn lower, pushing the DXY higher. Stocks, as usual, are caught in a vortex of vacuum tubes and chasing the VXV in a circular logic argument. Give them some time to catch up.
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I am so tired of "waiting" for the reversal. How stupid am I to think I can fight the Fed?
On another note, I wonder how many people on this blog even know what a vacuum tube is?
I was a TV repairman in the early 70's just when they were being phased out of new TVs. For anyone 30 or under, they probably have never even seen one in real life and barely understand the reference.
I love it, which shows you that I'm rapidly becoming over the hill.
Actually, the federal government - via the FAA - is still a pretty hefty consumer of vacuum tubes.
Figures, right?
Vacuum tubes have advantages over modern ICs that will only become evident after the first EMP blast.
I am Chumbawamba.
Epic !
My tube amp also functions as the worlds most expensive night light.
...and space heater too...don't forget that!
But does it go to eleven?
Everybody knows that a vacuum tube is what you use to connect the vacuum crevice tool to the vacuum hose, when you want to reach the dust bunnies under the couch.
;-)
Are those dust bunnies related to the money bunnies on CNBC?
I've held a few in hand back in the day
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vacuum_tube
For many who didn't they can simply look at themselves in the mirror.
Pete
I like my vacuum tubes in my audio equipment..can't beat'em!
;)
Plenty of guitarists are quite aware of vacuum tubes (e.g., EL34's, 12AX7's, 6550's, 6L6's, etcetera, etcetera).
i remember when cheap department stores had
vacuum tube test machines setup near checkout
so that you could determine which of your 100 tubes
needed to be replaced.
Any decent guitarist will have a tube amp.
definitely true.
to Cognitive Dissonance
I think those are still used in chem instrumentation (photomultiplier tube) however they are increasingly substituted by diodes /semiconductor arrays.
See some of us 30 something do (actually did) know.
Go team! My patience is running thin.... Tired of the pump, waiting impatiently for the equities dump. With quarter end approaching, I'd think we'd see some action by Friday with funds locking in gains.
From some captured emails, October 12th is the acceleration point for the dump.
Really? My alien brain fax says September 29th at 10:44 AM.
Buy the dip after the morning 0.4% selloff!?
Mindblowing eh? Given the same "miss the boat" mentality, the S&P is pretty close to following the same blowoff and collapse that occured in the Shanghai Composite in August.
The S&P has already broken above the rising wedge started in March, I suspect we are 1 all-in day before everyone realizes what they've done.
Have we ever has an epic rally into the Autumnal Equinox that didn't reverse shortly thereafter?
Just askin.
Buying the dips at this point is a dangerous game of chicken IMO, although I'm playing one myself. Long 30-yr treasury options, long dollar options, short silver options. I'm not blinking until mid-October.
Yes we have AnonMonet, 2007, it reversed, but not shortly. Lots of cycles coming up though, 80 years since the 1929 crash, 90 year cycle for the 1919 crash, 100 year for the 1909 crash....
If I recall correctly within a few weeks an epic reversal started... not immediately on the spot though...
Every day we have "weak" or "indecisive" early movement, talk of mergers and buyouts miraculously appears.
Yesterday it was PG and CLX, which they apparently waited until the close to put to rest. Today it's MSFT and ERTS. I don't even have to mention the buyouts over the past couple months when the futures have been down.
In what some experts think may be a harbinger of things to come this fall, officials of Dell Children's Medical Center in Austin have set up tents outside the hospital to accommodate the crush of patients flooding the emergency room with symptoms of the pandemic H1N1 virus, according to the Austin American-Statesman.
The two tents, which can accommodate eight to 16 beds apiece, were to be air-conditioned today.
According to the article, the hospital was on pace for an all-time record high in patients on Monday with 200 appearing before 3 p.m. That hour usually marks the beginning of the hospital's busy period because it is when school lets out. On Sunday, 343 patients swamped the emergency room. About 10 to 15 of the ER nurses are also out sick with influenza-like illness.
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/booster_shots/2009/09/swine-flu-things-get-tents-in-austin.html
Police and Military Train To Intern Swine Flu Vaccine "Refusniks"
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=15272
Look out!
How great is this: Headline directly contradicts the ticker. WTF?
CIT Up on Heavy Volume
By Dan Freed 09/23/09 - 11:39 AM EDT
Stock quotes in this article: CIT , MBI , ABK , BAC , WFC , GE
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NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- CIT Group (CIT Quote) sold off sharply Wednesday in heavy trading, after a big run up Tuesday.
Shares were down nearly 9% to $1.67 just over an hour after the open. Volume of 53 million shares in late morning trading was on pace to exceed the three-month average of 87 million shares. Shares of MBIA (MBI Quote) and Ambac (ABK Quote), two other troubled financial companies that saw big rallies Tuesday, were also down by more than 3% each.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/health/Swine_flu/article6843679.ece
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125366412674432421.html
excellent image over at evil.speculator
http://evilspeculator.com/?p=11158
Any idea why the dollar bounced? Is this have anything to do with the germans getting pissed at us for destroying the dollar and driving up the euro? Would they cause this reversal of the yen-euro, or did the fed just decide that the dollar can't actually drop below 76?
yes
A .17% move is a bounce? I have to squint real hard at a 3 day chart to even see it. Some reversal.
considering the drop below 76 this morning, I was looking for a very pronounced move downward. But it bounced back up above 76, which I certainly did not predict.
and it dropped below 76 again this afternoon...
let's see how many times it jumps back and forth....
All a good setup for the Fed announcement. It is Fed day. After the annoucement - Bond Up, Stocks Up, Commodities Up, FX up. Dollar? D is for Down.
ReturnFreeRisk
From a buddy of mine that trades currencies:
"It is not collapsing, it dropped 30 pips (need 100 plus point drop to make that remark) on comments that France is concerned with the level of the euro, it has subsequently recouped the drop."
Can't wait to see auction results. I have a feeling the auction will go over well and that will be supportive of the dollar.
Short video from bubble TV this morning
Larry Levin (and I quote)
"The fundamentals are a joke... "
http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2009/09/larry-levin-fundamentals-pshaw.html
Rick Santelli and Larry in 1 segment, the only 5 minutes worth watching for the day
If the dollar drops much below ~76 DXY, it begins to back some other nations into a deflationary corner out of which they cannot maneuver with the usual central bank counteractions. Not that it can't proceed lower still, but it is a bit of a bond rebellion point, and it will become only more pronounced the further it goes.
hmmm... bit of a sloppy auction. Looks like a 3 pt tail. Sigh.
I love the smell of napalm in the afternoon...
I am still surprised to see people thinking that the market will tank soon. It is imposible for me to see that as happening soon. Most people who post here are of the idea that Wall St. controll the goverment. And since a market collapse so soon and only 6 months after the rally would demolish people confidence for good(at least those who have short memory and don't remeber the 2000). And since that would probably take out the gold pot from Wall St.(the retirement funds)for ever and for good, then logic implies that they would not let that happen at any cost since trillions of tax payers money is available to them through the FED.Absent any big time catalyst,I don't see any market implosion before 2-4 years at least,or whenever Blankefein's(or the next GS head)bonus goes beneath the 50 mil threshold,whichever comes first....
1. Almost all day discrepancy EUR/USD and futs. In the end reversed forcibly , now again discrepancy. Was a nice trade.
2. Master alpha, ie the big boys, was pushed up on very low volume. Unloading came with heavy volume, which is good, when it does eventueally go down they will help make it a crater.
3. However, they still managed to hold the line and vol did not spike at all, just above yesterday's level and that was a yearlow here.
Now waiting for uncle Ben and his green shoot singalong. Hoping for 1076 for short. All shorts here are within callspreads, fyi.
My comments vanished, so here it goes again.
Some observation from the European front.
1. Almost all day discrepancy EUR/USD and futs. In the end reversed forcibly , now again discrepancy. Was a nice trade.
2. Master alpha, ie the big boys, was pushed up on very low volume. Unloading came with heavy volume, which is good, when it does eventueally go down they will help make it a crater.
3. However, they still managed to hold the line and vol did not spike at all, just above yesterday's level and that was a yearlow here.
Now waiting for uncle Ben and his green shoot singalong. Hoping for 1076 for short. All shorts here are within callspreads, fyi.
"Yen Euro Carry Trade collapsing"
Sorry, I do not see it. After reading the headline I expected a move of a few percent in the cross-rate. At 2:21 the Yen is up 0.13% and the candle does not look big either. To me that move is simple noise.