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As Yen Surge Continues, Time For Another G-7 Intervention?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Even as the dollar is plunging to fresh 3 year lows and was on the verge of crossing 1.50 earlier, the inverse is happening with the former carry trade darling, the JPY. As of a few minutes ago, the Yen was up to 80.49 against the dollar: a massive 500+ pip surge from over 85 in early April. More importantly, this is the level where the G7 intervened to weaken the Yen back in March after the Nikkei flash crashed. The question then is: will the G7 and BOJ intervene once again to do whatever they can to dilute the Yen (don't forget - Japanese monetization is coming with a vengeance), or will it let go sub-80 again at which point the Mrs Watanabes of the world will be forced to once again close all their unprofitable shorts and send the Yen surging to another all time record high against the dollar. Of course, for that to happen, it would mean the dollar will likely be forced to weaken even more. Then again, the opportunity cost is an even greater economic plunge in Japan in Q2. And just like that the global central planning Committee is caught between two pingponging carry currencies. Luckily, for the time being, Americans continue not to care that their "reserve" currency has all the credibility of toilet paper in the international FX market.

 

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Wed, 05/04/2011 - 12:55 | 1238917 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

It (the intervention) was glorious while it lasted, wasn't it?

Time for the aftershocks to begin in 3......2......1.....

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 12:58 | 1238962 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I bet the creative departement is going nuts right now.

Natural disasters = already done about 100 times

Kill America's most wanted = Done

Rebellions = Everywhere

Wars = Do Did Done

...

what's next...

 

 

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 13:03 | 1238978 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Doing what is right

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 13:13 | 1239033 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Another Pandemic?

You're just plain evil my friend...

 

 

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 13:18 | 1239066 Abitdodgie
Abitdodgie's picture

Dirty bomb b4 June 10th

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 14:03 | 1239320 Dapper Dan
Dapper Dan's picture

FOOD!

specifically food grown in the Mississippi delta and surrounding areas,

very little news coverage on this,  as usual.

From Jeff Masters Wunder blog.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1795
Unprecedented flooding on the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers
Snow melt from this winter's record snow pack across the Upper Mississippi River has formed a pulse of flood waters that is moving downstream on the Mississippi. This pulse of flood waters passed St. Louis on Saturday.  This floodwater pulse is headed south to Cairo, Illinois, and will join with the record water flow coming out of the Ohio River to create the highest flood heights ever recorded on a long stretch of the Mississippi, according to the latest forecasts from the National Weather Service. Along a 400-mile stretch of the Mississippi, from Cairo to Natchez, The Mississippi  river is expected to experience the highest flood heights since records began over a century ago at 5 of the 10 gauges on the river.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 13:16 | 1239055 ilovefreedom
ilovefreedom's picture

Shark Watch 2011!!

 

dum dum dum

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 13:18 | 1239064 WhOracle
WhOracle's picture

Aliens...

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 13:16 | 1239068 Arius
Arius's picture

plenty more...

- IRAN -  still to go

- more wars - coming up...

- Defaults/restructuring in europe...coming soon

- crisis in the States - where do we start...individual states or federal...

PLENTY to keep those folks busy but I like your thinking :-)

A teacher asks her class, 'If there are 5 birds sitting on a fence and you shoot one of them, how many will be left?'    She calls on little Johnny.

He replies, 'None, they will all fly away with the first gunshot.'

The teacher replies, 'The correct answer is 4, but I like your thinking..'

Then little Johnny says, 'I have a question for YOU.

There are 3 women sitting on a bench having ice cream:

One is delicately licking the sides of the triple scoop of ice cream.

The second is gobbling down the top and sucking the cone.

The third is biting off the top of the ice cream.

Which one is married?'

The teacher, blushing a great deal, replied, 'Well, I suppose the one that's gobbled down the top and sucked the cone.'

To which Little Johnny replied, 'The correct answer is 'the one with the wedding ring on,' but I like your thinking.'

 

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 13:22 | 1239096 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Little Johnny always was a smart-ass. But I liked his thinking.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 14:53 | 1239624 willien1derland
willien1derland's picture

Little Johnny, changed his name, & is enjoying a very successful & lucrative career as a lobbyist on K Street -

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 13:24 | 1239094 Crack-up Boom
Crack-up Boom's picture

Haven't had a sex scandal in a while... ooh I know - a UFO sighting!  Open up Area 51 and get everyone watching reruns of the X-Files! 

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 13:33 | 1239168 john39
john39's picture

tptb have been prepping the general public for project blue beam for some time. If I had to guess, that will be the last card that gets played before things really get ugly.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 13:41 | 1239228 WhOracle
WhOracle's picture

tru dat.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 14:00 | 1239327 mynhair
mynhair's picture

A lost Lindsay Lohan porn vid surfacing?

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 12:55 | 1238923 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"i don't listen to those end is near people."  He said "the end is HERE you idiot NOT near."

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 12:55 | 1238924 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

I am sick and tired of these pundits having their cake and eating mine while the US middle and lower classes go bankrupt at the hands of the power hungry oilgarchs.  We need not only audit the Fed, but we need to storm Fort Knox and move the gold out of the hands of the Central Banks and into our own!  To start, buy silver for yourself, and use your leverage to help your fellow man.  Do what you can, so we can all fre ourselves from the bonds of the fascist system.  Buy silver!

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 13:02 | 1238969 SoNH80
SoNH80's picture

I like your style, agree 100%, but I fear that Fort Knox might be full of bricks spray-painted gold, thanks to our "Esteemed Treasury Secretary" Robert "Swallow Hard" Rubin, so says Jim Willie....

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 14:44 | 1239562 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

And what would happen when America found out that all the gold it had trusted to the Federal Reserve Bank/US Treasurie had been looted by the same institutions?  What would happen if we the people were informed that the gold robbed by FDR had gone "missing"?  What would happen if the COMEX failed to deliver?  What would happen if SLV and GLD paid out its contract holders (the five largest) in physical but not anyone else?  What would happen?

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 15:02 | 1239644 trav7777
trav7777's picture

wtf would it matter if COMEX failed to deliver???  Do you guys GET YET that they are an EXCHANGE and not a producer?  It's not THEIR metal...the metal is owed by those with SHORT positions, not fking COMEX.

The warehousing and delivery function is a LEGACY service and an anachronism at this point.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 15:39 | 1239813 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

You think there is enough PM on the COMEX to satisfy the positions?  Is that it?  I am saying there is not enough metal to satisfy the positions.  I say the postions are naked, knowingly or not, because comex has not the metal to justify the receipts.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 15:12 | 1239683 RichardENixon
RichardENixon's picture

People would grab the remote to see if Dancing With The Stars was done with its commercial break.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 15:48 | 1239832 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Or they would wonder why tens of millions of Americans were protesting the fascist government every single night at all the town halls and court houses.

;)

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 15:21 | 1239750 SoNH80
SoNH80's picture

Hard to say if/when this info would ever be broadcast on major teevee, radio networks, newspaper wire services, etc.  So will "America" ever find out?  Maybe towards the end, when this knowledge will be but a cherry on top of a shit sundae that everyone's angry about anyway.  Anger is building out there, that's for sure, but I don't claim to know how it will express itself exactly.  My money is on inchoate anger that harms innocents, results in even more freedoms being taken away by our supposed protectors.  Reading the Bible-thumping rantings of those like "Texas Gunslinger" can give a foretaste of the noxious brew of jingoism-religious fundamentalism-angry ingnorance that could bubble over.  These scenarios never end well.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 15:44 | 1239825 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

It would only take a fraction of people to move against the fascist government to sieze power.  Ten million people (spread across the country) could easily overtake the city centers of all metro areas.  A joint strike of trucking and shipping, mail, and really any position of service could derail the whole system.  Strength in numbers occurs when each individual takes matters into their own hands, thus why each individual buying silver can destroy the fiat ponzi.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 15:47 | 1239839 SoNH80
SoNH80's picture

At this point, Americans fear each other more than they fear the gov't.  That may change.  Silver is definitely a good way for the common man to protect himself to some small degree, and it is a powerful vote AGAINST the wankers.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 13:25 | 1239063 Shell Game
Shell Game's picture

There you go, MLH.  We all stop waiting for 'someone' to lead and we lead ourselves and our communities. A true grassroots departure/revolution.  Exit the system, biatchez..

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 14:50 | 1239605 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Bin Laden is pronounced dead, America rejoices....

"You know why they have oxygen masks on planes?"

"No, supply oxygen?"

"Oxygen gets you high.  In a catastrophic emergency, we're taking giant, panicked breaths.  Suddenly we become euphoric and docile.  We accept our fate.  Emergency water landing,  blank faced, docile as Hindu cows."

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 15:01 | 1239656 trav7777
trav7777's picture

and WTF exactly is WRONG with that????

Panic on an airplane is as useless as tits on a boar!  There's nothing you can do...they should put weaponized lorazepam in that feed just to make sure.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 15:43 | 1239819 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

The plane is a metaphor.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 12:53 | 1238927 unky
unky's picture

what the fuck i dont understand is how can gold go down $30 and silver $3 in one day and the dollar is almost unchanged ?

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 13:00 | 1238954 ivars
ivars's picture

Simple market crash ( silver). Bubble bursting. Overvalued.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 13:01 | 1238983 SoNH80
SoNH80's picture

Wrong.  Temporary reversal in a secular bull market. 

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 13:13 | 1239048 ivars
ivars's picture

Depends on the time scale You are using.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 13:19 | 1239082 SoNH80
SoNH80's picture

Like climbing a mountain, there will be dips and plateaus.  But there is no getting around the fact that the U.S. currency is being destroyed, and PM's nominal value in U.S. Dollars will go up in the 2011-2021 decade, just like they have gone up strongly in the 2001-2011 decade.  I do not expect to become "rich" from investing in silver, but I, and many others here and abroad, have lost all faith in our government's ability to manage its finances and currency wisely.  That's what it's all about.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 13:06 | 1238996 gordengeko
gordengeko's picture

apparently you are new, be sure to hit that donate button because zh is your "through the looking glass".

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 13:07 | 1239014 unky
unky's picture

not new, just posting very infrequent. however did not believe the cartel was able to pull the PM prices that much lower without doing something to the currencies

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 13:14 | 1239036 SoNH80
SoNH80's picture

You may have been referring to me, Gordon, thanks for the reminder, just sent in my donation now.  I've been a reader for quite a long time, but posting recently since I've noticed that the volume on the B.S. machine has been really turned up past 11, and ZH and Jim Willie are just about the last honest outlets standing, that have a little fun happening, too.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 13:22 | 1239099 gordengeko
gordengeko's picture

unky, I'm pretty certain it was because the silver train was making too much noise.  It awoken the bohemoth Blackrock.  Incase you don't know who blackrock is?  They are the largest financial institution on the planet and owns JPM as well as one of the largest shareholders of SLV.  Since JPM is short, it's in blackrocks interest to tank the fiat price.  Make no mistake, we made waves with silver and the battle is just beginning.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/blackrock-issues-refutation-slv-fraud-allegations-it-time-panic-slv-holders

sonh80, I shuold probably be hitting that button too.  Been slacking.lol

 

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 14:06 | 1239363 unky
unky's picture

unky, I'm pretty certain it was because the silver train was making too much noise.

 

i agree, a new nominal all time high would have made headlines everywhere and attract too many buyers. as of now they could try to make it look like the spike in 1980

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 13:23 | 1239086 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

Coordinated raid to skim the paper-PMs and shake some nervous physical holders into dumping.  So the amount of $$$ actually moving out of these asset classes is pretty small in the overall investment complex. 

Remember, these guys are not dumb.  They are trying to mitigate massive short exposures.  That doesn't mean "flight to dollar..."  Unwinds are migrating to very short-term parking spaces.  So no dollar break out.

The dollar is dead to rites.  The game now is concealing that from the masses.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 13:52 | 1239281 AldoHux_IV
AldoHux_IV's picture

Price everyone out that isn't part of the country club via margin increases, slam prices to get the algos trading the other way in thin after hours markets, repeat and rinse, and there you have a concerted effort to control prices which inevitably controls sentiment on using PM's as an alternative monetary system, and allow the US' biggest creditors to load up on the physical at Costco like bulk pricing.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 12:55 | 1238935 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Why not? Nobody is watching anyway...

nobody will notice, GO AHEAD!!

 

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 12:58 | 1238957 andrew123
andrew123's picture

Do the Japanese really want their currency to depreciate?  They are a nation of aging savers, and they have a lot of debt outstanding.  A strong currency makes Japonese feel better and tallows them to buy all the raw materials they need to rebuild.  I know it hurts their exports, but isn't that overwhelmed by the benefits of a strong currency?  I am asking this as a serious question.  Does anyone have a well thought out answer, or could point me to a good web source?  Thanks.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 13:01 | 1238984 unky
unky's picture

Now, as most of their exports *disappeared* thanks to the earthquake i think they should be interested in a strong yen

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 13:02 | 1238988 qussl3
qussl3's picture

Makes sense, and will work until they become net importers by value.

Then its a matter of time before the yen goes to shit.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 13:01 | 1238959 legal eagle
legal eagle's picture

The dollar and PMs were decoupled long ago.  It is kinda fun guessing what the Central Planners will do next.  It will all end ugly, to be sure, but I am not dumping PMs simply because it is time for Central Planning manipulation.  By the end of the year, silver will be $60 and gold will be $1700, I am not at all concerned.

 

Also, if you look at Armstrongs analytics, you will see that he predicted in December a low in PMs come around June 1, and this was good for PMs lest we otherwise see exhaustion in the trade.  Armstrong is predicting much higher prices than I.  All the fundementals are screwed, what should I do sell and buy paper - not a chance brother.  

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 13:25 | 1239097 Abitdodgie
Abitdodgie's picture

I think they will get gold n silver to go right down so people panic and stat selling there piles and when the banks and TPTB have stocked up the price will go way high 

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 13:03 | 1238982 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

FXY is a multi-year highs, despite huge money printing and monetization by the BoJ.

The only reason the dollar is languishing is that the Fed is simply not printing fast enough.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 13:17 | 1239059 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

The only reason the man is sober is because he's not drinking fast enough.

I guess all that speed he's doing has his metabolism working overtime.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 13:17 | 1239062 Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

One day, you're gonna kill somebody as they get a brain aneurysm as they attempt to vent their rage via the keyboard

 

Either that, or you'll asyphyxiate them as they laugh themselves to death

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 13:08 | 1239001 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Rumor has it Kampo is on the bid @ 80.00 I'm long 80.50- stop 79.50

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 13:09 | 1239020 AR15AU
AR15AU's picture

Yen surges to 70 in a panic...  Dollar breaks below all time low of 70 at the same time. US traders panic into commodities and create a super spike, meanwhile Japanese authorities commit to a final act of monetization so horrendous that it breaks the Yen.  Japan enters hyperinflation and the dollar surges, temporarily collapsing commodity prices back to 1990s levels.  All traders are bankrupted as weak dollar trade fails.  Within 6mos - 1 year, the dollar plunges anew and the US enters its own hyperinflation.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 13:17 | 1239071 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

That would reflect a DXY of 65ish, if yen dumped to 70.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 13:10 | 1239029 Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

"As Yen Surge Continues, Time For Another G-7 Intervention?"

 

No!   Let's just get this over with and start anew.   Dustbin the dollar, collapse the debt, reset prices and lets get back to work!   Lots of god damn mandarins in the way of real progress....

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 13:23 | 1239087 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Excellent Idea! TOO bad the greedy bastards holding all the bad debt would never let that happen. Look at all the banks holding tax payer(BAILED OUT) funded real estate right now!

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 13:11 | 1239038 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

The inflation scare is over.

CRB has now broken its trendline.

Time to buy airlines, hotels, department stores, and restaurant stocks...LOL...

 

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 13:27 | 1239129 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

you go first. i'm on the way over to exchange coupons for gold.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 15:42 | 1239814 dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

“Gold is the money of kings, silver is the money of gentlemen, barter is money of peasants,  debt is the money of slaves, & fiat is the money of fools.” 

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 13:13 | 1239052 Alchemist
Alchemist's picture

yen is not surging.. its usd thats falling.. yen is down against all major currencies since the intervention except the usd.. check eurjpy, audjpy, nzdjpy, cadjpy, chfjpy.. etc..

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 13:14 | 1239054 Bubbles the cat (not verified)
Bubbles the cat's picture

Let's not talk this down. There's an opportunity here. I spend a lot of time on the crapper. Current use about 3 or 4 rolls a week. Goes up round election time. I can see that picking up over the next coupla years.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 13:27 | 1239132 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

You must be heavily invested in KMB & JNJ. Paper products divisions.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 13:43 | 1239224 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

hey Y/C! howdya like my RBA call? ka-ching!

batmanke has dedicated the FRN to the Y-E-N.  our destinies are yoked.  for now, BiCHeZ!

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 14:20 | 1239395 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Nice work Slewie! Do you think it(aud/usd) moves into the 4-26 1.068 low? It's bouncing off the resistance 4-26 08:00 GMT hourly candle as we speak. Thanks

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 07:12 | 1242304 Bubbles the cat (not verified)
Bubbles the cat's picture

Nah (probly should be). Frenz & associates tell me I'm just fulla crap.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 13:20 | 1239074 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

CME killed the market. 

Ironic, I guess......

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 13:33 | 1239169 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

so with the talk about deflation one would think the dollar would catch a bid already. not happening. slow economic growth, big deficits, poor leadership, high unemployment and money printing don't lead to a strengthening currency. quite the opposite. to keep the lid on silver and gold bernanke and the wise guys are gonna have to sit on the metals for a long time.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 14:28 | 1239491 phyregold
phyregold's picture

Can someone answer the 100 million dollar question for me?  What happens if the Yen value > USD?  I've saw an interview where Soros said Yen inflation is the greatest risk right now, and I assume anything he says is a risk is good for the US.  But if someone is nice enough can someone answer my newb question?

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 14:43 | 1239567 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

BoJ is the 2nd largest holder of U.S. debt. Just under 1T usd. You can do the math from here.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 15:11 | 1239677 phyregold
phyregold's picture

Really i'm not able to put 2+2 together, i still don't get how that impacts the situation of the yen > dollar.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 15:13 | 1239685 phyregold
phyregold's picture

To me, the yen passing the dollar is good for the US because that means China can no longer export cheap goods, and can no longer create the jobs they need to surpress their people.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 15:34 | 1239795 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Forget about CYN. Japan has internal holdings via Kampo... The MoF can push BoJ to sell JGB's which will drive rates higher. MoF can also liquidate F/X holdings (aka usd/jpy) Selling large amounts of USD devalues the USD. How ever it also raises the input costs for rebuilding. Commodities are priced in USD! MoF will likely keep UST sales light, and break the WON or AUD! Slewie said it well earlier. RBA (Royal Bank of Australia) Is neutral. The currency rise is dealing with inflation, and commodities are highly volatile.

 

Traders are frothing at the mouth, and that sends me south! Easy money is done in equity markets! My 2 cents.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 16:17 | 1239974 phyregold
phyregold's picture

So the way out at the end of the day is still not to raise the debt ceiling?

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 16:26 | 1240004 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Do I really need to answer that Question? Put 3 suckers on your coffee table, and 3 dollars. Then ask your 3 year old which she prefers.

Thu, 05/05/2011 - 08:32 | 1242493 phyregold
phyregold's picture

Yes, sorry I need an answer.  I hear a lot of complaining and no real answers.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 15:16 | 1239701 cathrynm
cathrynm's picture

For right now, really, I think Japan should just do it.   They have experience, creating cash for useless construction projects, except this time they need to build all the temporary housing for the people still in shelters, and rebuild other damage from the tsunami.   If this keeps the yen from skyrocketing further, all the better. 

What are they going to do, bring in austerity, and balance the budget?  That would just make the Yen even higher.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 19:54 | 1241206 Frozen IcQb
Frozen IcQb's picture

 

 

AR15AU,

You’re assuming Japan will continue to have a trade surplus thus requiring a week Yen. What if they run a trade deficit going forward?  They would then need a stronger Yen to re-build their economy and import cheaper materials. Food for thought.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 19:59 | 1241231 nkktwotwozero
nkktwotwozero's picture

Dont disrespect toilet paper.

I need that shit.

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