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This was at 17 last on Tuesday, a 60% rise in one four days.
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And the winner is.... GOLD!! Look at that baby decouple from FRN and f'ing dow
Gold is getting whooped bitches!
Precious metals...check it.
Cop per son!!!!!!!!
Now, will it blend?
I have seen things I would never have imagined during the last 2yrs but could this be it? Or is this yet another banana peeling moment.
Mongo you are such a tease
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Everybody was long, they have heard the sirene calls
from wall street:
Buy Buy Buy, cash is trash.
All the big banks are bullish, only 3.5 % cash,
stocks, stocks cash is trash, up, up.
They will try to do the same thing like before, waiting until the volume is low, then they manipulate the market.
If the DOW goes down, the banks need a other bailout.
And they dont get it, to much greed. If I m a bank
i will give 50 % from the taxpayer profit back to the taxpayer (soups for the poors), and they are happy and the banks are pleasant.
But they are unthinkable realy 100 % greedy.
The guys they make the public relations work for the
banks, they have to disbanded.
I've been bearish for 6 months and now when the collaps finally comes I've already missed two weaks of sell-off.
its because you dont follow your opinion.
But if you have done it.......
Where does one go to learn wtf these charts mean? I want to know, but I don't know what I don't know. If you know what I mean.
I've been studying charts for years and I still don't know, but I know this:
1. They are guides, not foolproof indicators, much like a roadmap or a GPS. Your GPS doesn't show you the weather or tell you what it means. Neither does a chart, so it's best to expect anything.
2. Start simple. I'm not convinced that the best charts aren't weekly and monthly charts with 2 moving averages that clearly show primary trend.
Buy Murphy's tech analysis book if you're serious. That's a great place to start. It's about $50 at Amazon. Great book though. Stay away from web based sources. I can't tell you how many so-called technicians can't read a chart. I wasted years listening to those bozos. There are no shortcuts. Learn simple TA and then study charts day in and day out until you find indicators that work for you. For me, it's simple support and resistance and trends. Oscillators are for entertainment value only, as is EWT. Not saying there isn't value there, rather, I'm just not bright enough to unlock it.
Buy and read Malkiel's A Random Walk Down Wall Street and Graham's The Intelligent Investor. And see whether you can evaluate balance sheets, TVM, and other interest patterns.
Then compare those models to the chartist theories/momentum trading ideas.
I like Murphy's Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets as well.
That would be my first recommendation on TA books.
'Panic'?
A little too strong of a word, no? Pull up a 2-year chart on VIX...
lol, I'm short stocks still but am covering slowly with long gold position...
guess it will decouple a little, gold.
Decouple a little (bit at a time) until it has decoupled.
Cramer is panicking saying this dip cannot be bought....That alone has me bullish....I believe that a massive jobs bill will be announced in 60 to 90 days.....Size of $700 billion ....These swift declines are typical in bull runs and I don't believe this is over...
agree the fiscal side will take up the torch with some form of jobs bill as masked stimulus. That is why the bernanke news is a sideshow to who is voting to lift the debt limit. No stimulus deflationary tsunami. Something has to give.
Methinks stimulus two will come out right before election time to put money in people's pockets to help keep the majorities.
I don't think a jobs bill will be forthcoming -- there will be no need for it. Because if things don't change across the board in the next 60 to 90 days, the ammunition factories will be hiring people by the tens of thousands.
Why do so many of you keep posting Cramer? We're here because this isn't CNBC! Get it?
+1000
ok
wonderful how the market gets you to think one thing and then does another. you would be strongly encouraged to trade what you see, not what you hear. which includes this message.
in longer term down market corrections, the buyers do not think the run is over and continue to buy the price declines hoping prices come back up. we are near if not at the completion of the down market correction, where lower prices would be expected.
in longer term up market corrections, the sellers do not think the run is over and continue to sell into price declines even as the tape advances hoping prices will come back down.
wonderful how the market gets you to think one thing and then does another. you would be strongly encouraged to trade what you see, not what you hear. which includes this message
everybody was long
I am borrowing stock and selling it to you. Good luck.
This is just the beginning....
Lazy fucks don't want a jobs bill they just want free money. Productive people have jobs or are doing what ever it takes and are prepared and thinking people know that this would be 700 billion funneled into union coffers since all the jobs moved overseas. 60-90 days could give you a s&p 500. I don't see more free money until we are face down in the dirt and Obama auctioning off nukes to the highest bidder.
new highs by March, typical January correction. stop the silliness. Or don't. I will make off it.
I see things differently. I see some declines until March and then a new uptrend through the summer.
If you go down in the woods today
You'd better not go alone.
It's lovely down in the woods today
But safer to stay at home.
For ev'ry bear that ever there was
Will gather there for certain, because
Today's the day the teddy bears have their picnic.
mid term elections coming....I expect Obama to throw the kitchen sink play....$700+ billion job creation program....I am eyeing engineering stocks right now.....Didn't Obama keep the $700 billion TARP money is sort of a slush fund? Something big is going to come and soon.
After the mid term elections, I am super bearish.....Put me down for SPX 525 going into Obama's re-election as he squashes HMOs and healthcare in general with an all out public option.
Regression to the mean. 525 is way optimistic. Most people are going to be surprised at just how low we go Pull up a 20 year monthly and find the mean trendline. Draw it in. See where we are now. I don't know when we will cross that trendline, but I am 100% certain that we will before this is over. I'm guessing between 2014-2018. The next wave down is going to be far longer and more painful than most people can even conceive. When we get to the bottom, equities will be the buy of a lifetime, but most people will not buy. We've been here before. We survived. We'll survive this as well, though we will be a lot different when we come out the other end of the grinder.
God Bless everyone.
Regression to the mean. 525 is way optimistic. Most people are going to be surprised at just how low we go Pull up a 20 year monthly and find the mean trendline. Draw it in. See where we are now. I don't know when we will cross that trendline, but I am 100% certain that we will before this is over. I'm guessing between 2014-2018. The next wave down is going to be far longer and more painful than most people can even conceive. When we get to the bottom, equities will be the buy of a lifetime, but most people will not buy. We've been here before. We survived. We'll survive this as well, though we will be a lot different when we come out the other end of the grinder.
God Bless everyone.
Its not like the vix is trading 50. Get over it. Half the US administration is ex Goldman, so no action is going to be taken. Obama is farting in a hurricane.
There have been a lot of worrying charts over the past year, but the last week has turned particularly nasty. I can see at least a couple of possibilities which could create "The Perfect Storm" or Black Swan if you like. Hope I'm not alone with these thoughts. Would hate to be paranoid all by myself:)
better to be alone on these things, more wealth available to extract.
as for black swans, they are in themselves highly unpredictable. 90% of the results tend to come from 10% of the activity, especially when people get involved. people involvement = no normal probability.
You just made me even more paranoid.
How hard could that be?
I have VIX Feb 20 call options for which the bid/ask was 4.7/5 while the underlying was at 27.
Anyone know why? Seems like it should have been around 7, never seen options like this
It's overdone now. The bank legislation may never pass Europe, for eample, will not follow), and the risk of Chinese interest rate rises has been factored in.
The sell off was long overdue and inevitable, not least in Gold, but having been short for the past two months, I went long the Down when down 216 tonight ...interesting week ahead, for sure; but when the crowd is scared and running for the door, it's time for the brave to buy.
The storm with a Black swan flying in it is on it's way!
No jobs, no credit, no leadership, real estate dead, commerical re on life support, it is a major flustercluck.
I have some VIX Feb 20 calls, the b/a was 4.7/5 while the underlying was 27. Anyone know why they wouldn't have been 7? I've never seen in the money options behave this way
bc the VIX is a forward looking instrument that prices in future expectations and is NOT a direct / clean proxy.
equity options (NOT futures options) are notoriously negatively skewed on the VIX .... that is until the collective social mood, finally, accepts what lays immediately ahead and they (VIX ETF equity options) start to converge, then begin to broaden / expand ... suggesting further positive direction skew into outlying months.
that's the long n short; hope it helps. then again, WTF do i know ? i just screamed bloody murder to move 30% long VIX (before, and) after it plotted an island reversal on the daily and then to move 70% of tactical allocation into front-month / 1 month out calls wayyy the F OTM. lucky guess i suppose. by the way: what is the funny-mental outlook for the VIX and should i keep buying more CSIQ? lol. so sad.
An accident waiting to happen.
sheesh. from 17 to 28 in only a few days. wow!
if only there was a way / someone could actually predict that this would happen.
if only, lol.
This weekend they manipulate the futures again, and the shorts has to cover(remember mondays updays). Be sure they dont change the game.
All bigs are long, 3.5 % cash only. They will do anything
to reverse the down trend. If vol is still there, its could be difficult ( so they do it some days later ). This tactic was working eminent now 9 month.
For now zh guys have a little bit fun, and a nice weekend.
But I'm afraid that...
they were not short, they are long. Bears turns to bulls.
Now bulls to bears. To late.
Screw Cramer, where is Leo Kolivakis???
Please pimp us some more solar stocks! Hey, maybe I will buy them now, seeing as they are down 40% in the last few days...
Hmm... where is Leo Kolivakis ??
Maybe he is on holidays and dont know the disaster.
But to ridicule him is not fair, i know you dont have
done it.
Normally he is here every day when the (solar)stocks are
going up.
Hey Leo we need a comment. I know your comment:
buy the dip. You cannot buy a dip, you are long.
In CNBC the bulls today, they have bought the shares
today, how, if they are long?? Maybe they get fresh money
from Ben. Or they are lying...
What is when the 100% comprehensive insurance from the
FED side and from the robots is now not working? Robots can maybe change the side.
Be sure the futures are skyrocking in the weekend.
Plenty of Leo on RobotTrader.
There goes my bodybuilding endeavor, oh well.
DOW/SP500 daily charts are now bearish, weeklies remain in an uptrend for now.
My earlier bearish warnings for stocks continues.
My earlier USD uptrend and EURO downtrend warnings continue.
In early 2007 I warned of an impending stockmarket crash.
I confirmed a bottom by early April 2009.
From mid 2009 onwards, I warned of a USD rally (it has much further to go too)
The uptrend since March 2009 has been a bear market rally contained within a much larger bear cycle that started in 2000.
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