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Yesterday, the Lemmings Discovered the Law of Gravity
The plaintive squeals of the dying mammals could be heard throughout the financial markets. European finance ministers must be depressed that their $140 billion bailout of Greece only bought them only 24 hours of grace in the eyes of investors. The European finance ministers might as well drown themselves in the seas of red on my screen. Only the Vix and British Petroleum (BP) are green. How perverse.
Oil down $3.50! Boiiing! Silver off a buck! Kaboom! The ten year Treasury at 5.59%! Pow! It also looks like the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico could make a sizeable dent in US Q2 GDP. You all know that I have been negative on equities for a while now (click here for my piece on buying cheap downside protection at http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/March_18__2010.html ).
The global nature of the sell off across all asset classes also came as no surprise (click here for that prediction at http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/April_28__2010.html ). The flight to quality has given another shot of adrenaline to the dollar against my core shorts, the yen and the euro, both of which broke down to new lows for the year today.
Most fascinating is that my April surprise came through too (click here for the report at http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/March_11__2010.html ). The withdrawal of the Fed at the beginning of the quarter as the sole purchaser of real estate debt in the market, led not to a crash in bond prices, but a huge six point rally, sending yields into the dump. With the coming collapse of the Treasury market the new mantra among traders, it turns out everyone was short!
Once again, Shanghai’s status as a canary in the coal mine for all global markets is reaffirmed (click here for the explanation at http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/April_30__2010.html ). Where am I going to buy the dip first? Shanghai.
The hedge fund managers who saw all of these complex moving pieces fitting together and positioned for it made multiple killings. Those who didn’t have joined their furry cousins at the bottom of the cliff.
To see the data, charts, and graphs that support this research piece, as well as more iconoclastic and out-of-consensus analysis, please visit me at www.madhedgefundtrader.com . There, you will find the conventional wisdom mercilessly flailed and tortured daily, and my last two years of research reports available for free. You can also listen to me on Hedge Fund Radio by clicking on the “Today’s Radio Show” menu tab on the left on my home page.
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If you can offer 10s at a 5.59%, I'll buy from you all day long!
ps: Sorry to call you out on a typo...I just got excited seeing the level where it ought to be.
VOYAGE OF THE DAMNED:
http://williambanzai7.blogspot.com/2010/05/voyage-of-damned.html
I must have missed a news announcement somewhere... When did ZeroHedge turn its website over to shamless shilling ??
Work up your own post and submit it. We'd be interested in your prognostications as well. It might be better to constructively review the information presented rather than assume that somebody is trying to make a buck. (Of course, the buck-making aspect is not to be ignored. Wish I were smart enough to have data that others would pay for.) Anyhow, go constructive and expansive, rather than narrow and critical.
Rocky, My comment was constructive, but if it was not clear, let me try again:
ZeroHedge staked out a niche with news, facts, rumors, and links to hard-to-find documents. There is no viable competitor for that information.
Recently, and regrettably, the site seems to give more and more space to opinion pieces ('forecasts') by (to be charitable) rather second-rate folks like Middleton, Kolavakis, and 'madhedgefundtrader.' There are hundreds of other websites that offer the same or similar material. Thus, it reduces the value of the website.
So, constructively: please stick to what you do best, and others do not do at all.
I agree, all the shilling takes away from the site. Some dude actually recommended BBI as a buy a few weeks ago. Pure fucking garbage.
Perfect. That should have been the original post. There was not way I could have gleaned that information/opinion from the cryptic original #334137.
I agree. MHFT adds little to the discussion often and nothing to the discussion consistently.
Going long Shanghai and surrounding areas is hardly rocket science. Can you still get 2 and 20 for that??
this is funny because as I have read your posts you've been pushing tbt (double inverse leveraged to treasuries) I know at least once you pushed it at a clear trading market correction time. I'm not going to go back over posts, but I really don't recall you pusing treasuries on zero hedge.
disclaimer: because of bad trading advice I do not read your posts on a regular basis anymore and therefore may be in error.
In all fairness to Mad, it should be considered opinion, and not advise. We are here for opinions, and nobody gets it right all the time.
"With the coming collapse of the Treasury market the new mantra among traders, it turns out everyone was short! "
I thought this was MHFT's trade of the century. Got deflation? Place your bets, ladies and gentlemen. Morgan Stanley, are you paying attention? Last fiat standing contest now on. Wait until all of this turns to the UK, then crosses the oceans.
I'm long (at present) 7-10yr treasuries. This is a good play while Euroland comes apart. Then, maybe time to reassess.
I guess its pretty obvious that the people holding that wool over everyones eyes are shorting like mad
"I guess its pretty obvious that the people holding that wool over everyones eyes are shorting like mad"
Is it not an irony here that "Captain Obvious" is pointing out the obvious?!?
The proprietary indicators I use can identify trend changes before they occur and they have been warning of a USD rally since last year.
Just posted a new EURUSD chart: showing long term trendline with important support around 1.2770
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/latest-market-outlook-0
Those indicators are not very good if it took so long before the predicted change occurred (i.e., since last year).
In the long run, there is always some kind of reversion. Magnitude is the trickier call.
As well, one can "lose their shirt" listening to such indicators, if it takes so long before it actually reverts.
The trading brilliance is getting it right in the short run...like less than 4 weeks time...at least directionally and then with some element of a precision on magnitude.
Looks like a publi com to me.