Your One Minute Macro Update

Via Brian Yelvington Of Knight Capital

US:  Futures are broadly positive this AM following a modest up session overnight and yesterday as the bond market further signaled its displeasure with policy actions.  The lack of political will to extend the BABs program has also caused the market to widen broadly, shining light on the US' own fiscal woes.  We still believe the selloff in the front end, which has hikes almost fully priced into futures by year end 2011, is overdone.  With the newsflow surrounding the BABs policy, however, this may not be the right time to enter the market.

Europe:  News reports that France is joining Germany in resisting larger bailout packages and Eurobond issuance programs.  Periphery CDS is a bit wider along with a lower Euro as the ECB reports that a rise in unemployment might require a policy response to combat the problem.  This further illustrates the conundrum in primary balance adjustments:  austerity causes contractions and growth policies cause debt burdens to rise.  The Irish Times reports that elections may be pushed back to March as Fitch downgrades Ireland to BBB+ Stable.

Asia:  Speculation continues on a Chinese rate hike owing to the pre-release of economic numbers as PBOC Advisor Xia Bin cautions that a rate hike would impact equity  markets.  Aussie employment figures showing improvement.  Warnings of deflation in Japan continue to emanate from government officials.

Comments

[T Rex]

If Allied Irish's employee's are happy with their bonuses I'm happy. 

[David99]

India closed -2.31% with Shanghai

- 1.32%

[T Rex]

The 30 year - too much is never enuf right Ben?

[youngman]

I am watching the 30 year today..not that you can tell anything anymore about the sale...its so rigged now...but it should be worse today...

[wreynol4]

so since I am a newbie, what should the correlation be, between the stock market and 30 year bond, and what is actually happening right now due to all the manipulation?

[blindman]

http://maxkeiser.com/2010/12/08/irish-people-owe-nothing-to-banks-billionaires-refuse-to-pay-now/

‘Irish people owe nothing to banks & billionaires – refuse to pay now!’

[T Rex]

Allied Irish  http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/8190104/Allied-Irish-Banks-to-pay-40m-bonuses-despite-bail-out.html

[blindman]

this is an abomination unprecedented in human history.

if it stands the earth will turn to fire along with the seas,

and then they will run dry.

[T Rex]

Who would buy one?

Honestly?

[cossack55]

I read that if the 30 yr hits 5% that translates to 640 Billion hit to JPM thru derivitives.  C'mon baby, hit 6% and we can bury the bitch.

[hugovanderbubble]

CDS

CDS WARNING

5YR 5YR
GERMANY 50/54 +2 GREECE 905/935 +25
FRANCE 99/103 +4 PORTUGAL 440/460 +15
DENMARK 41/45 +1 SPAIN 317/325 +18
NORWAY 20/24 +0 ITALY 197/203 +8
NETHERLANDS 56/60 +0 IRELAND 535/555 +15
FINLAND 30/34 +0
AUSTRIA 87/93 +4 *USA 5yr 43 Mid Indication*
BELGIUM 190/200 +8
SWEDEN 30/34 +0
UK 66/71 +1
 

[Paper CRUSHer]

Also across the atlantic from the european stock 'movers 'n shakers'....

Today's Loser,retailer HMV has been doin' some entertain' by falling flat on its face...down over 20% on LSE.

The 12mo chart:

http://shares.telegraph.co.uk/charts/?epic=HMV

[99er]

Charts

http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/99er-charts

Good luck, folks.