Your Taxpayer Dollars At Work: San Fran Fed Asks If Structural Unemployment Is On The Rise, Discovers It Isn't

Tyler Durden's picture

With unemployment stuck at 10% for about a year now, and with the real unemployment rate probably well over 20% if one removes all the BLS gimmicks, by now it is rather clear even to 2 year olds, that the New Abnormal is one where unemployment of 5% is merely a pipe dream, and that the Fed's attempt to revert to an abnormal mean, and blow the biggest bubble ever in the process, will do nothing to fix what is now a new structural baseline unemployment level. And yet, just to prove that the Fed will take taxpayer money and spend it on the most Captain Obvious topics ever, has just released a paper titled "Is Structural Unemployment on the Rise?" Adding insult to monetary injury, paper authors Rob Valetta and Katherine Kuang conclude that not only are worries about a "new normal" misplaced, but that jobs will promptly revert back to old levels. Sure, why not - as we showed previously, it will only take the creation of over 230,000 jobs a month for about 6 years straight to get back to the old unemployment level. It will also mean that luckily, at some point California will not have to borrow $40 million a day to fund its unemployment insurance payments. Lastly, with one brief paper the San Fran Fed has proven that all is good in the world, and those traitors responsible for 26 weeks of constant equity outflows, just like the 42 million Americans subsisting on food stamps, are complete morons for being "timid" in light of these stunning results. We expect as this paper's findings are broadly disseminated for world peace to finally break out, FX wars to end, consumer confidence to jump by 100%, and gold to drop to its Fed mandated price of $35/ounce.

From the paper's conclusion:

We examined evidence in favor of the view that structural unemployment and the NAIRU have increased during and after the recent recession. Based on historical patterns, the recent shift in the relationship between unemployment and vacancies reflected in the Beveridge curve is consistent with an increase in the NAIRU of about 1¼ percentage points or less. The impact of extended unemployment insurance benefits likely explains about 0.4 to 0.8 percentage point of this increase. The remainder is probably associated with the bursting of the residential real estate bubble and the need for many unemployed construction workers to find work in other sectors. The effects of both of these factors are likely to be transitory rather than permanent.

So let's get this straight: 4% of unemployment is due to "unemployed construction workers unable to find houses to build." Well, there you have it. The Fed has officially made the purpose of Zero Hedge's existence moot. Little did we know that all was in fact, well, and all it takes is the realization that Obama merely need to start building homes on the moon.

Full piece of research brilliance, funded by your taxes, can be found here.


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homersimpson's picture

What do you expect when the 9th circuit court is nearby?

Sudden Debt's picture



MarketTruth's picture

Its a SNAP... and thank JP Morgan for being the bankster who operates it.

Pool Shark's picture

Actually, this is what your tax dollars are doing right now (if you can believe it):


Zyroh's picture

my hindendinger algo shows the fed's moronicity is up 23%.

hambone's picture

Fisher of the Dallas Fed sez it as it is today...

"The Federal Reserve will buy $110 billion a month in Treasuries, an amount that, annualized, represents the projected deficit of the federal government for next year. For the next eight months, the nation’s central bank will be monetizing the federal debt." and it's up to "The Fed is going out of its way to be a good citizen. It is time for the Congress to do the same."


Actual must read below

Pool Shark's picture

[Obi Wan Kenobi voice:] "These are not the jobs you're looking for; you can go about your business..."

Hondo's picture

I'll have to read the report but I'm pretty sure they are going to be using the past to predict the future ......... coming to the conclusion the future will revert to the past.........(This will show the stupidity of modern economic thinking at the FED and what they're teaching in economic doctoral also will show very clearly why we are in the trouble we're in)

AR15AU's picture

Just commission 240,000 of these reports each month. Problem solved.

espirit's picture

I'll just wait for the final revision of the consensus, if I'm still alive in that many years.

We will gain jobs until everyone is unemployed.

mikla's picture

The remainder is probably associated with the bursting of the residential real estate bubble and the need for many unemployed construction workers to find work in other sectors. The effects of both of these factors are likely to be transitory rather than permanent.

Easy money.  Make up statistics, sound like an idiot.

Now, I'm ready for their "hot stock picks".

Yep, best tax money I ever spent.

treemagnet's picture

Clearly theres no role for ZH in this new utopian world.

midtowng's picture

I'm happy that the Fed has told me this. Personally, I was beginning to worry, but not anymore.

johngaltfla's picture

Thank you for reading this so I don't have to. It just goes beyond any sanity any longer.

saulysw's picture

Straight from the ministry of disinformation...

knukles's picture

It's not structural; it's just permanent. 

traderjoe's picture

So coupled with the report that higher oil prices are actually good for the economy, we have demonstration that not only do they not know how to fix the economy, the don't even think anything is wrong. Solvency v. liquidity. They will continue to focus on liquidity and drive us all to hyper-inflation. 

knukles's picture

Right-right, double check, yep, spot on, inclusive, and alls well in Whoville.

If there's no problem, there's nothing to be fixed, which therefore demands an excessively enormous and wasteful governmental program.

     See without the problem
     That really T'wasn't, 
     There's nothing wrong,
     With marrying your cousin't.
     When the toddlers,
     Come out looking funny,
     Don't blame the gubamint,
     Blame yer half-bred honey.


aarskever's picture

No, no, you misunderstand. Clearly any 'transitory' effect is irrelevant to experience; therefore, 4% of workers being unable to find work now (and being really poor) is irrelevant. In fact, life is irrelevant -- it too is transitory.

But in the long run, we're all dead, as ZH states. So what is left in between? Is all that is relevant the fact that 'money' exists, but that it is irrelevant who holds it?

truont's picture

paper authors Rob Valetta and Katherine Kuang conclude that not only are worries about a "new normal" misplaced, but that jobs will promptly revert back to old levels.
Joseph Goebbels would be green with envy after reading this masterpiece...

AccreditedEYE's picture

PhD caliber work right here.....

sagerxx's picture

PhD?  As in Phreakin' Dumb@$$es?

Problem Is's picture

Once ALL the Fed PhD Economists are unemployed...

Then we can turn the corner on unemployment...

AR15AU's picture

If your comment was intended to be sarcastic, you failed. PhD calibur work is synonymous with taking out a $200,000 loan for a career in waiting tables and brewing lattes.

NumberNone's picture

C'mon construction're just not trying hard enough!  Look at all the Fearless Fed has done to make your lives better.  It's time you step it up and find you some jobs!  

RockyRacoon's picture

There just isn't much construction involved in living in a cardboard refrigerator box.

And moving it to a scenic location under the nearest overpass doesn't require much in the way of hydrocarbon consumption.

kaiserhoff's picture

Proving still, yet, again that you don't have be in LA to live in la la land.

still kicking's picture

Obviously I woke up in a parallel universe or dreamworld a couple of years ago where everything is backward.  I'm a little pissed about the idiocracy and fraud but what really really pisses me off is that if this is the parallel universe why in the hell am I still not nailing Kate Beckinsale yet?

PolishHammer's picture

Gotta be PhD to appreciate and opine on this, you guys don't qualify.


Some Ashok Anand Panshtun from the Fed said it.

papaswamp's picture

As Krugman and Pimpco said in the past...all we need is to create a housing bubble to get out of this problem.

Jim Billy Bob James IV's picture

Just an old Oklahoma saying:

"When idiots lead idiots, morons will become wise men"

Crummy's picture

I was gonna type something about fed employees finding jobs in the bullshit shoveling sector but that reoccurring realization that the world is run by complete morons made me all woozy and I nearly vomited, so I typed about that instead.

Kassandra's picture

And "Palin lashes out at Bernanke".

I swear, I am waking up in a new alternate universe every day.....

VegasBD's picture

Thought the FED prices the gold it holds at $42 and change?

RockyRacoon's picture

Yeah, nothing gets marked to market these days....

Ancona's picture

These idiots are obviously government hacks, disguised as educated intelligent people.

Nothing to see here, move along Comrade. The line for circus tickets is to the left, and the line for bread is to the right. Now shut the fuck up and keep moving, or I'll report you to the prefect.

Ripped Chunk's picture

And I don't have an alcohol and drug habit.

Boy is that a weight off my mind!

Problem Is's picture

Fed: "All depends on what your definition of "is" is...."

Is unemployment... Is housing bubble... Is devaluing dollar... Is Greenspan Bubble Head... Is Bennie Copter pilot...

Rainman's picture

San Fran that where it's cool to get stoned for free in the At&t bleachers while 5-0 stands feet away....??  Pelosi the biggest export ??  Sanctuary city ?? 9th Circuit Court of Appeals ?? That San Fran Fed ??


litoralkey's picture



Michael Mann making mad bank consulting in the statistical analysis field, and he gets to get his rocks off in the Castro district.


sub Z's picture
Your Taxpayer Dollars At Work: San Fran Fed Asks If Structural Unemployment Is On The Rise, Discovers It Is!!!

The current economic recovery is proceeding at a tepid pace despite massive federal fiscal stimulus and extremely low interest rates. Forecasts derived from business cycle indicators produced by the Chicago and Philadelphia Federal Reserve Banks predict that real U.S. GDP growth through the first half of 2011 will remain at or below potential. If these forecasts prove accurate, then the historical relationship between real GDP growth and the labor market suggests that the unemployment rate could rise by as much as 0.5 percentage point during this period.

Recent weaker-than-expected economic data have raised concerns about the recovery’s staying power. In a recent Economic Letter, Berge and Jorda (2010) estimate the probability of falling back into recession during the next two years at around 50%. While discussions in the media often focus on the likelihood of a “double dip,” it is important to recognize that, even if the economy avoids another recession, future real GDP growth may not be strong enough to prevent the unemployment rate from rising. Standard macroeconomic models would predict an increase in the unemployment rate if real GDP growth over the next two to four quarters were to fall below the economy’s potential growth rate, defined as the sum of the long-run trend growth rates of productivity and the labor force. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO 2010) estimates that the U.S. economy’s potential annual growth rate over the next five years is 2.1%. Other estimates of potential growth are significantly higher. If real GDP growth were to fall below potential growth for a sustained period, then the unemployment rate would be expected to rise.