Your Taxpayer Dollars At Work: San Fran Fed Asks If Structural Unemployment Is On The Rise, Discovers It Isn't
With unemployment stuck at 10% for about a year now, and with the real unemployment rate probably well over 20% if one removes all the BLS gimmicks, by now it is rather clear even to 2 year olds, that the New Abnormal is one where unemployment of 5% is merely a pipe dream, and that the Fed's attempt to revert to an abnormal mean, and blow the biggest bubble ever in the process, will do nothing to fix what is now a new structural baseline unemployment level. And yet, just to prove that the Fed will take taxpayer money and spend it on the most Captain Obvious topics ever, has just released a paper titled "Is Structural Unemployment on the Rise?" Adding insult to monetary injury, paper authors Rob Valetta and Katherine Kuang conclude that not only are worries about a "new normal" misplaced, but that jobs will promptly revert back to old levels. Sure, why not - as we showed previously, it will only take the creation of over 230,000 jobs a month for about 6 years straight to get back to the old unemployment level. It will also mean that luckily, at some point California will not have to borrow $40 million a day to fund its unemployment insurance payments. Lastly, with one brief paper the San Fran Fed has proven that all is good in the world, and those traitors responsible for 26 weeks of constant equity outflows, just like the 42 million Americans subsisting on food stamps, are complete morons for being "timid" in light of these stunning results. We expect as this paper's findings are broadly disseminated for world peace to finally break out, FX wars to end, consumer confidence to jump by 100%, and gold to drop to its Fed mandated price of $35/ounce.
From the paper's conclusion:
We examined evidence in favor of the view that structural unemployment and the NAIRU have increased during and after the recent recession. Based on historical patterns, the recent shift in the relationship between unemployment and vacancies reflected in the Beveridge curve is consistent with an increase in the NAIRU of about 1¼ percentage points or less. The impact of extended unemployment insurance benefits likely explains about 0.4 to 0.8 percentage point of this increase. The remainder is probably associated with the bursting of the residential real estate bubble and the need for many unemployed construction workers to find work in other sectors. The effects of both of these factors are likely to be transitory rather than permanent.
So let's get this straight: 4% of unemployment is due to "unemployed construction workers unable to find houses to build." Well, there you have it. The Fed has officially made the purpose of Zero Hedge's existence moot. Little did we know that all was in fact, well, and all it takes is the realization that Obama merely need to start building homes on the moon.
Full piece of research brilliance, funded by your taxes, can be found here.
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