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A Zero Hedge Premium Preview: "A National Blessing...."
As you are no doubt by now aware, Zero Hedge is in the process of developing a number of premium features. Last month we gave you a preview of Cf., "The Journal of Irreverent Attacks on Conventional Wisdom, Entrenched Dogma and Sacred Cows." Today, we offer a sneak peak at our other premium publication, ∑TCH: "Adventures in Financial Engraving," Zero Hedge's journal of unique financial data visualizations. We hope you enjoy Volume I, Issue I: "A National Blessing," (along with the rather amazing, if we do say so ourselves, Treasury debt visualizations attached thereto).
Abstract:
We compiled 120 months of data from the United States Department of the Treasury's "Monthly Statement of the Public Debt" reports to catalogue monthly snapshots of every class of marketable security issued by the Treasury with amounts outstanding. Our data encompassed all marketable bonds, notes, bills, Federal Financing Bank ("FFB") debt and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) outstanding during the period from End-of-Month January 2000 to End-of-Month December 2009. For each security issued we collected data for debt class, security series, stated interest rate, issue date, maturity date, issued principal, amount outstanding and so forth. Individual securities were then classified for each monthly snapshot by days until maturity, and coupon or initial interest rate. We then calculated the aggregate amounts outstanding for each calendar quarter increment in maturity and 50 basis point increment in interest rate for each monthly snapshot. The resulting 120x32x120 array was plotted on three dimensional bar graphs in 120 monthly intervals of 32x120 matrices and then animated. What emerges is a unique picture of the evolving nature of Treasury debt, its extensive and recent growth and a clear picture of the substantial roll-over risk created by dramatically shortened average maturities and large, recent borrowings. Further, it becomes apparent that the current maturity profile is such that even extensive inflation will likely be ineffective in mitigating the impact of the debt analyzed.
Read the entire piece here.
Enjoy our large (1200x754 pixel animated gif, 11.5 MB) animated graphic here. (Small monitor resolutions will get a cut off graphic. We'll add a smaller version presently).
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So is this what a 'flight to safe-T' looks like? Or is this a heard of lemmings jumping off a cliff? Whatever it is, it's pretty. Thanks ZH.
Outstanding Work! Thank you for sharing this valuable
service with your readers!
The 'flight to safe-T' in animated .gif form. Love it.
When I first discovered ZH within a few weeks after you first started, I predicted the genius behind the site was a displaced MD from either LB or BS who (a) had funds; (b) had the requisite experience & insider knowledge of how Wall St works; and (c) wanted to expose GS. My prediction still stands.
Leibniz and Galileo would not be just proud of your graphic -- they would be JEALOUS. Amazing stuff.
Agreed.
This is a sobering graphic! I don't suppose the Fed or Treasury possesses any talent that will make use of this great resource? Thought not.
Great job ZH, as usual. Indeed, a splash of VERY cold water when accompanied by "extensive inflation will likely be ineffective", how about a bout of hyperinflation?
Up the proverbial creek without paddles or the canoe!
wow, neat graphic.
I downloaded it, and played it in Quicktime player. Using that, you can slide the marker manually to any point you want. I was having trouble getting Firefox to cooperate with the huge GIF.
Thanks for the tip, that works great. Firefox worked fine for me in viewing the .gif but didn't give the control like QuickTime does. Some great synergies on ZH, no?
Excellent. Quite scary that nearly two trillion in 'savings' is represented by short-term government paper that must be continuously rolled over. Perhaps it's time to reread Cra$hmaker.
- Heretic
Your post made me http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4pXfHLUlZf4
Now exactly what do you mean by premium services? Is this where we fork over worthless inflated FRN's or are you going to expect us to send in our PM reserves? ;o)
What happens if the Treasury defaults to the Fed? Does that just wipe the debt off the books?
picture's worth a trillion words
Beautiful. That's how the final looting phase of a country looks like.
Kind of reminds me of ants converging on a picnic basket.
Add some aliens, a spaceship, and a way to control it with the keyboard or mouse, and you have yourselves an arcade hit!
Either way, we definitely need more explosions in there.
I am Chumbawamba.
Actually you would need a helicopter (you control with a mouse or joy stick) and a printer (you control with the keyboard). You are Ben, flying over the maturing debt, dumping printed money on it. But if you spend all your time dumping, and not enough time printing... and all of this is timed, you have to catch all the debt before the the rest of the world figures out what you are doing.
As you do this, the value of the dollars you are dumping is shrinking, making each dollar cover less and the interest go up more...unless you can supress the value of gold...
Wow. What a game Ben is playing.
That's an awesome visual. Ooh, don't forget this one - Ben can jiggle the playing field a bit by making 'announcements' every now and then.
***edit: the effectiveness of which decreases over time as Ben's strength meter edges lower and lower.
Holy Fuck, you just described a pretty cool fucking game! Someone with some Flash experience should be able to throw something like this together in a week.
We need a programmer and a marketing guy. Missy, you be creative director. I'll run the operation and of course take my customary 80% cut.
Let's get to it!
I am CEO Chumbawamba.
Oooh! Can I be in middle management?
Do we get to kill Ben at the end of the game? Crash his chopper or something. If this is not part of the game play I'm not going to offer my programming skills for this project.
Yes, with a hellfire missile launced from an Apache that you hijack from a local military installment.
Now get back to work!
I am Chumbawamba, CEO ZeroVision
Folks will play and play and never win. They will get high scores, they will get close, but always the dollar falls and the economy crashes. Crashing the copter right into that cluster of maturing debt will be a secret way of winning. The dollar will strengthen and the world will cheer you.
Another secret way of winning will be to tell the truth and hit the default button. But then a new currency will be created and the game will start all over again.
Can someone explain in laymans terms what the gif represents ?
thankyou
The gif shows US public debt outstanding by maturity and interest. The most significant part of the gif is the maturity is getting a lot shorter.
thankyou for the reply, given that it looks like the perfect storm is brewing, what effects will this have on the other economies ie UK, Europe and Asia ?
Nice. I would like to know what graphic and animation tools/software you used to create this!
The genesis of Acronyms is such a fickle matter.
Are we looking at the birth of 'sigmatch' or 'Etch' ?
Amazing info that the gif represents. Additional information that would be useful is some text that details how much each blip represents (although the $1.2 trillion is a nice shocking number, you lose the details of everything else) and see how much the total debt is growing. I'm sure the numbers would be staggering to see how the debt > 20 years or debt > 5 years is increasing since 2000
"...operations may escape even learned financial professionals, unique visual presentation
(or may we go so far as to say "art"?) often has the potential to crystallize complex issues
in the public psyche."
So, I ask you, can we attempt a dangerous feat in airports across the country by enlisting good-looking naked people to 'expose' one of the greatest impositions on our personal freedoms and on our right to privacy in history: body scanners.
Questions:
1) Did Japan end up the same way, unable to float long term debt?
2) What will be the implications if rates begin to rise? You would want to own short term issues if you were expecting rates to climb, correct? So it makes sense that the Treasury cannot sell any 7s,10s,30s, so doesn't this trend reflect the nearing endgame in which rates must rise thus making longer term issues more attractive once again? I'm trying to be optimistic here.
This one is not loading for some reason:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/etchv1i1.pdf
"page not found"
Way to go ZH. Keep pushing the envelope!
About 30 seconds into Cramer's everyday pump job of the market CNBC had a little mishap when they showed a chart of SPX Futures during a misprinted trade down 8.5%. The irony of his mug pumping the market with a chart next to his face showing the futures down 8.5% is priceless!!!!
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1383029363&play=1
Sorry to jump in off topic but after hour turnaround following the Alcoa #'s is simply amazing...market was down up to 30 dow points but by 11pm PST market is back to positive. Wow, seems almost like we bordered on truly bad news w/ a negative reaction and then quickly saw a surge in after hours "buying". Straight forward bullsh#*. Seems it's all about not allowing any negative momentum to build. Seems we should give GS JPM a sign like they have w/ the stimulus projects, "Your government $'s at work to maintain your Ponzi economy".
For some reason the .pdf wasn't loading right. That's repaired now. View it via:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/etchv1i1.pdf
Hellaphat analysis and presentation
A very cool graphic, but are you sure that you are not manipulating the data to fit your hypothesis? The vast majority of borrowers, sovereign and corporate alike, borrow predominately at the short end of the curve because the market is unwilling to offer longer terms (or demands a wide spread for it). The average maturity of US (3352Z US) debt is 2014, compared to 2015 in Germany (34137 GR), which has much more conservative fiscal and monetary policy, or Japan (JAPZ JP).
If you look at all three countries, you will see the biggest chunk of debt maturing in the current year. This is nothing new, although the decrease in US duration is a step in the wrong direction and bears watching.
PS: When viewing the pretty dots marching right to left, one should remember that Treasury did not float 30s from 8/01 to 2/06. Otherwise, one might get the wrong impression.
I guess it seems the U.S. government has wholeheartedly taken up Option ARM funding. I have been calling the U.S. government for a long time now the sub-prime lender of choice. But not only are they the only sub-prime lender they are also the speculators (economic recovery speculators) betting on Option Arms to flip houses and recovery.
Great job.
Marla:
8:34 AM 1/12/2010 Page is not loading.
Graphic is outstanding.
It's kind of like 3-D Tetris with Tetratrillionos
I have no idea why it was being so fussy. Should be fine now.