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Zuckerman: "Why the Jobs Situation Is Worse Than It Looks"
- Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Capital Markets
- Conference Board
- Consumer Confidence
- David Rosenberg
- Federal Reserve
- Gluskin Sheff
- Great Depression
- Home Equity
- Housing Prices
- Obama Administration
- Quantitative Easing
- Reality
- Recession
- recovery
- Rosenberg
- Unemployment
- Unemployment Benefits
- Wall Street Journal
- White House
From Mort Zuckerman, originally posted in Forbes
Why the Jobs Situation Is Worse Than It Looks
The Great Recession has now earned the dubious right of being
compared to the Great Depression. In the face of the most stimulative
fiscal and monetary policies in our history, we have experienced the
loss of over 7 million jobs,
wiping out every job gained since the year 2000. From the moment the
Obama administration came into office, there have been no net increases
in full-time jobs, only in part-time jobs. This is contrary to all
previous recessions. Employers are not recalling the workers they laid
off from full-time employment.
The real job losses are greater than the estimate of 7.5 million.
They are closer to 10.5 million, as 3 million people have stopped
looking for work. Equally troublesome is the lower labor participation
rate; some 5 million jobs have vanished from manufacturing, long
America's greatest strength. Just think: Total payrolls today amount to
131 million, but this figure is lower than it was at the beginning of
the year 2000, even though our population has grown by nearly 30
million.
The most recent statistics are unsettling and dismaying, despite the
increase of 54,000 jobs in the May numbers. Nonagricultural full-time
employment actually fell by 142,000, on top of the 291,000 decline the
preceding month. Half of the new jobs created are in temporary help
agencies, as firms resist hiring full-time workers.
Today, over 14 million people are unemployed. We now have more idle
men and women than at any time since the Great Depression. Nearly seven
people in the labor pool compete for every job opening. Hiring
announcements have plunged to 10,248 in May, down from 59,648 in April.
Hiring is now 17 percent lower than the lowest level in the 2001-02
downturn. One fifth of all men of prime working age are not getting up
and going to work. Equally disturbing is that the number of people
unemployed for six months or longer grew 361,000 to 6.2 million,
increasing their share of the unemployed to 45.1 percent. We face the
specter that long-term unemployment is becoming structural and not just
cyclical, raising the risk that the jobless will lose their skills and
become permanently unemployable.
Don't pay too much attention to the headline unemployment rate of 9.1
percent. It is scary enough, but it is a gloss on the reality. These
numbers do not include the millions who have stopped looking for a job
or who are working part time but would work full time if a position were
available. And they count only those people who have actively applied
for a job within the last four weeks.
Include those others and the real number is a nasty 16 percent. The
16 percent includes 8.5 million part-timers who want to work full time
(which is double the historical norm) and those who have applied for a
job within the last six months, including many of the long-term
unemployed. And this 16 percent does not take into account the
discouraged workers who have left the labor force. The fact is that the
longer duration of six months is the more relevant testing period since
the mean duration of unemployment is now 39.7 weeks, an increase from
37.1 weeks in February.
The inescapable bottom line is an unprecedented slack in the U.S.
labor market. Labor's share of national income has fallen to the lowest
level in modern history, down to 57.5 percent in the first quarter as
compared to 59.8 percent when the so-called recovery began. This
reflects not only the 7 million fewer workers but the fact that wages
for part-time workers now average $19,000—less than half the median
income.
Just to illustrate how insecure the labor movement is, there is
nobody on strike in the United States today, according to David
Rosenberg of wealth management firm Gluskin Sheff. Back in the 1970s, it
was common in any given month to see as many as 30,000 workers on the
picket line, and there were typically 300 work stoppages at any given
time. Last year there were a grand total of 11. There are other indirect
consequences. The number of people who have applied for permanent
disability benefits has soared. Ten years ago, 5 million people were
collecting federal disability payments; now 8 million are on the rolls,
at a cost to taxpayers of approximately $120 billion a year. The states
today owe the federal insurance fund an astonishing $90 billion to
cover unemployment benefits.
In past recessions, the economy recovered lost jobs within 13 months,
on average, after the trough. Twenty-three months into a recovery,
employment typically increases by around 174,000 jobs monthly, compared
to 54,000 this time around. In a typical recovery, we would have had
several hundred thousand more hires per month than we are seeing
now—this despite unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus (including
the rescue of the automobile industry, whose collapse would likely have
lost a million jobs). Businesses do not seem to have the confidence or
the incentive to add staff but prefer to continue the deep cost-cutting
they undertook from the onset of the recession.
But hang on. Even to come up with the 54,000 new jobs, the Bureau of
Labor Statistics assumed that 206,000 jobs were created by newly formed
companies that its analysts believe—but can't prove—were, in effect,
born in May under the so-called birth/death model, which relies
primarily on historical extrapolations. Without this generous assumption
in the face of a slowing economy, the United States would have lost
jobs in May. Last year the bureau assumed that 192,000 jobs were created
through new start-ups in the comparable month, but on review most of
them eventually had to be taken out, as start-ups have been
distressingly weak given the lack of financing from their traditional
sources such as bank loans, home equity loans, and credit card lines.
Where are we today? We have seemingly added jobs, but it is not
because hiring has increased. In February 2009 there were 4.7 million
separations—that is, jobs lost—but by March 2011 this had fallen to 3.8
million. In other words, the pace of layoffs has diminished, but that is
not the same thing as more hiring. The employment numbers look better
than they really are because of the aggressive layoffs in the early part
of this recession and the reluctance of American business to rehire
workers. In fact, the apparent improvement in job numbers has been made
up of one part extra hiring and two parts reduced firing.
Even during past recessions, American firms still hired large numbers
of workers as part of the continual cycle of replacing employees. Of
the 150 million workers or job seekers in America, about one third turn
over in a typical year, leaving their old jobs to take new ones. High
labor "churn" is characteristic of our economy, reflecting workers
moving to better jobs and higher wages and away from declining sectors.
As Stanford business professor Edward Lazear explains so clearly in the Wall Street Journal,
the increase in job growth over the past two years is attributable to a
decline in the number of layoffs, not from increased hiring. Typically,
when the labor market creates 200,000 jobs, it has been because 5
million were hired and 4.8 million were separated, not just because
there were 200,000 hires and no job losses. But when an economy has
bottomed out, it has already shed much of its excess labor, as
illustrated by the decline in layoffs—from approximately 2.5 million in
February 2009 to 1.5 million this April. In a healthy labor market like
the one that prevailed in 2006 and into 2007, American firms hired about
5.5 million workers per month. This is now down to about 4 million a
month. Quite simply, businesses have been very disciplined in their
hiring practices.
We are nowhere near the old normal. Throughout this fragile recovery,
over 90 percent of the growth in output has come from productivity
gains. But typically at this stage of the cycle, labor has already taken
over from productivity as the major contributor of growth. That is why
we generally saw nonfarm payroll gains exceeding 300,000 per month with
relative ease. This time we have recouped only 17 percent of the job
losses 23 months after the recession began, as compared to 207 percent
of the jobs lost from previous recessions (with the exception of 2001).
There is no comfort either in two leading indicators of employment, with
no growth in the workweek or in factory overtime.
Clearly, the Great American Job Machine is breaking down, and
roadside assistance is not on the horizon. In the second half of this
year (and thereafter?), we will be without the monetary and fiscal
steroids. Nor does anyone know what will happen to long-term interest
rates when the Federal Reserve ends its $600 billion quantitative easing
support of the capital markets. Inventory levels are at their highest
since September 2006; new order bookings are at the lowest levels since
September 2009. Since home equity has long been the largest asset on the
balance sheet of the average American family, all homeowners are
suffering from housing prices that have, on average, declined 33 percent
(compare that to the Great Depression drop of 31 percent).
No wonder the general economic mood is one of alarm. The Conference
Board measure of U.S. consumer confidence slumped to 60.8 percent in
May, down from 66 percent in April and well below the average of 73 in
past recessions, never mind the 100-plus numbers in good times. Never
before has confidence been this low in the 23rd month of a recovery.
Gluskin Sheff's Rosenberg captured it perfectly: We may well be in the
midst of a "modern depression."
Our political leadership in both Congress and the White House will
surely bear the political costs of a failure to work out short- and
long-term programs to fix the job shortage. The stakes are too high to
play political games.
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+1
Careful because a lot of Hope & Changers are here on ZH telling us both parties are the same. Repubs are idiots but the Muslim's party is pure f***king evil.
Our imported workers in the field of engineering and software engineering are here to do one thing and one thing only drive down the wages of their American co-workers.
The purpose of liberal arts education in the USA is not "to learn how to think".
The true value of a Liberal Arts educaton is to learn how to lie.
Witness the power accumulated in our society by Lawyers, Social Science Academics, Communications, Public Relations, Economists, etc. Tell me that those who learn to manipulate symbols & thus manipulate vast masses of people have no marketable skills. Please, lying is the most important job in America today!
drinking Budweiser doesnt make you sexy.
buying Louis Vuiton doesn't make you ruling class.
Yet these billion dollar enterprises prove that you can convince millions of people to believe anything.
We live in a world made of lies. Who do you think taught the masses all the utterly false things that drive their daily behavior? Who constructed our vast, degraded world of politics & entertainment? our web of marketing & consumerism? Engineers? hahahah you cant handle the truth. Directing the behavior of billions via the symbol sets of the Liberal Arts is the number 1 job in the USA today.
If white kids can't Lie, than they should stay in shop class anyway.
Cheers,
Beef
Aromatherapy is pretty cool, too.
There is desire and there is reality.
The top Five Actual Jobs of the "New Reality of the 21st Century)(tradmark applied for)
#5 Fast food worker
#4 Drug Dealer
#3 Freelance or Mafia Computer Hacker
#2 Hooker
and the Number One Job of the New Reality of the 21st Century....
#1 Cannon Fodder for the military/industrialist oligarchy (may include groovy uniform and meals)
I think I read that report too. Statistics compiled by the Society for the Evisceration of the American Dream, right?
Underemployment of 30%+ is the 2013 target. Right on schedule. The Japanese way.
OK. A well stated problem. There are not many who would argue with the situational statistics set forth in Mort's article. There was no solution, however, and no approach to the real WHY of the situation. If one does not know the real reasoning behind the causes, and does not set forth a solution, how does one blame anyone for it specifically? The current administration is the problem? I think not. The former administration? I think not wholly. All administrations since Roosevelt have contributed to this culmination of events. Jobs lost are GONE. How does government "fix" that? Common wisdom would say by simply getting out of the way. I personally think it's too late for that. A reset is in order that will drastically reduce wages and bring labor more in line with world pay rates. Only then can "full employment" be a distant vision. Hell, we may have to back it out to the agrarian age of the last Depression and restart the process!
More visas for Chinese tourists...Jeff Immelt brings good things to your life.
The Greatest Depression!
Without all the messy soup lines and failing banks!
Failing Banks or Falling Bankers?
I'm developing a carbon fiber and titanium umbrella for Wall Street types, provides protection from impact for up to a 300lb body falling from 50 stories. Comes with a money back guarantee. Negotiating with a factory in China and a factory in Viet Nam. North Korea won't answer my calls.
Seeking start up capital. Would like to IPO within 12 months. Sure thing. Private investors welcome.
max on greece with steve keen...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Tu2uiV1lps&feature=player_embedded
We'll do each other's laundry and serve each other burgers
A domestic economy? What are you a radical? Don't you know we must all work together to make a global economy. Only then will we be free of the oppression of separate nationalist government and can all be united together under the tyranny of a single currency/government/oppressor.
Burn NAFTA
Burn WTO
Go back to funding the government with tarriffs that protect domestic industries. Create an environment where it is once again profitable to provide goods and services locally to each other.
Strive together to build a better nation.
I prefer that Americans use their freedom of choice to purchase American made products rather than to put tariffs on goods not made in the US. If you can afford it and there is an American made version of the product you want to buy keep your neighbor working please.
And how well has that happy thought alone worked out over the last 20+ years?
Wage arbitrage, bitchez!
"the moment the Obama administration came into office, there have been no net increases in full-time jobs"
I'd say before that, like in November business knew they were screwed. Batten down the hatches became the drill as they prepared for the road to destruction ahead. Many swearing not to rehire until the job killer Barama is gone.
If Obummer had directed all that fiscal stimulus and monetary policy to job creation instead of to protecting his scumbag friends on Wall Street and in the hedge fund community, the country wouldn't be facing this problem. He had a choice, he made it, and now he is going to be blamed for the consequences.
I'm with you here, but can you outline exactly what "directing fiscal stimulus to job creation" entails? Some specifics, rather than grand, all encompassing, nebulous sound bites would be helpful. Frankly, other than the ubiquitous scenario of one fella digging a hole and another fella filling it back in is the only one I see working. Folks won't fall for that again.
Build the first Moon colonies. Beam the solar wind power back to earth
I saw some guy suggest that government should just offer to pay wages for workers that small-businesses need. So say a dry-cleaner goes to the local state employment office and says, "We could really use 2 guys to spray dangerous chemicals on clothes, but we can't afford to pay them."
The basic concept is that you give the unemployed something to do, it keeps them in the labor force, and it helps the businesses which are currently not the beneficiaries of the "major corporate handouts" policy.
It seems like it'd be a better approach than paying folks not to work, but I'm not convinced anyone wants to fix anything, myself. We have a strong apocalyptic streak in this country. It seems economic collapse is the preferred option.
I suggested this...
I also strongly suspect it would have a positive impact on immigration...
Presumably, you would also teach those people useful skills to help break the cycle of poverty...
The nice thing about assessing markets and taking a clinical economist's view is you can see both sides of the issue.
IF, for example, we made real gains in employment figures and promoted useful skills among the current population of "cyclically impoverished," we'd lose a great deal of opportunity to lock those people up for minor drug offenses, thus threatening the profitability of our prison industry.
Immigrants whether they are legal or not all ready have those jobs (unskilled labor). I'm sorry, but I am not for paying taxes to potentially train my replacement so that some rich asshole can have even more money in his pocket. I'm in a semi-skilled job, but the last thing we need is more immigrant workers in a country with a job market like ours. Maybe you're not understanding what the amount of unemployed people means for our country long term. The last thing we need to do is expand our labor pool when jobs are scarce.
So you're telling me that free public workers (who depend on your positive criticism to receive their entitlements) would not replace illiegal immigrants for the tasks most americans deem too mundane to perform?
This would, at best, be immigration neutral... but, I strongly suspect it would send many, many immigrants back to their respective countries of origin... having determined (before their american counterparts) that it is not the land of opportunity for 99% of the populace.
Further, I'm not sure if you've reached the conclusion yet, but our structural unemployment will persist for decades, at least (maybe muted by periodic injections of naively optimistic faith/helicopter drops to the barking dogs). The thought that you will not have more people looking for semi-skilled labor in the near future (as entitlements are cut) is... near sighted at best.
PS, every able bodied american is a member of the labor pool (as well as any swinging dick that makes it across the border), the only question is whether they are incentivized to work... I strongly suspect that the number incentivized to work will increase... and sooner than most suspect. [whether or not they'll be successful in their search is another issue entirely]. This is not an increase in the labor pool...
I hate to say it but all these free trade agreements and removal of tariffs were only good for one thing, corporations. As they were able to out source their manufacturing and get it done on the cheap overseas the smaller businesses were forced to manufacture here with higher wages, taxes and more regulations (workers comp, OSHA, EPA, etc.). This led to smaller businesses folding. Unless we somehow force other countries to comply with these regulations (fat chance) we will wither away unless we decide to accept the wages paid by other countries. Don't you just love Globalization. (Equalization)
Yeah, you know its like there is no history. There is only now, the best and the brighest can't look back at our recent history and find the fingerprints for when the decline in our nations employment truly began.
Ross Perot, that shrill old man, was right. That sucking sound was all the jobs leaving the country. It would have been difficult to deliberately pick a poorer messenger for the job. If old Ross would have been as photogenic and likable as Bill Clinton or JFK, think where the country would be today.
Jobs are broke because industries are gone overseas. They can't be rebuilt until the unfair trade advantage of the 3rd world is broken.
Either we accept 3rd world wages, pollution and working conditions including slavery and child labor in the United States, or we negate treaties, erect tarriffs and protect and rebuild our own national interests ASAP.
The choice should be clear and obvious, since it is not being pursued, it is likely a deliberate policy enacted on the behalf of those who derive substantial benefit from our current demise.
+1
If Ross wasn't able to personally fund his campaign, you never would have heard his message. Clinton, Bush and Obama, to get the money to fund their election campaigns, had to whore themselves out to the very same corporations that were wanted to ship our country's jobs overseas.
Our country is so completely corrupt now there is no chance of anyone being elected to national office who isn't a whore for big finance and big business. That means the jobs ain't coming back and our government will bail out bankers forever.
Well said. Even Ron Paul has taken to whoring for votes and campaign money. The system is broken and corrupt/corrupting, the same approach that created the failure we have now will not be able to fix it (paraphrasing Albert Einstein).
carpet the southwest with solar panels.
make solar panels
modern day hole digging & filling = high speed rail
R&D on nuke waste handling and disposal
shut down the nukes and dispose of the waste.
re-direct military spending to building manufactured housing
ship manufactured housing to the various spots we've bombed flat (libya, iraq, etc).
none of this will transform society (except maybe solar panels), but it would put a lot of folks to work instead of claiming 99 weeks of unemployment. and it's quasi-positive stuff
All of this implies governmental intervention. Isn't that the problem?
I think it is useless government intervention in the wrong areas of the country/economy that people find objectionable. The heart paddles on a dead banking system and burning treasury notes to power the electric generation for said paddles, is probably not the correct response.
Actually rebuilding of our industrial capacities and employing people to build things instead of employing them to blow up foreign nations, would be thought of as a positive by most reasonable people.
If government is a weapon we must try not to shoot ourselves in the head. If a government is a tool we should try to build something useful, not a suicide death machine.
Since we are married to Satan, we might as well try to get him to take out the trash.
Almost the entire infrastructure of the U.S. needs to be rebuilt. That would have been a good place to start. That is, if you could get Americans to actually do the work. They had to import labor from Mexico to rebuild New Orleans, while most of the native population stood around and watched. Or robbed them.
Gotcha. The Japanese solution. Build roads to everywhere. That has certainly lifted them out of their malaise.
Fix up the ones we have. Fix the bridges, upgrade the rail system. Upgrade the electrical grid. You don't believe in infrastructure, Rocky?
What we should have been doing all along, not just now that our ass is in a crack.
The funds that should have been spent on infrastructure have only gone to shore up bank balance sheets.
Now there's infrastructure you can believe in!
Nice Rocky. The above exchange reads rather oddly, but makes sense.
What will the current, crumbling infrastructure have running on it when Gas is $10 a gallon or Oil at $400?
ORI
You know, I always wondered where they got the fuel for those outlandish vehicles in Mad Max. There wasn't near enough from those conveniently placed wrecked gas tanker trucks that they came across so often.
Rocky is reciting fact.
Japan has poured more concrete and asphalt over the last 20 years than any other nation on earth (yes, including the emerging China).
And they're debt is now the highest of any nation in the developed world (202% officially), and they are de facto bankrupt beyond any shadow of a doubt.
I guess an argument can be made that most developed nations with massive entitlement programs, welfare cradle-to-grave benefits, bloated public sectors and/or massive military expenditures are bankrupt, also. You can't be a "little bit bankrupt."
But Japan's really racking up the future creditors' meeting offsets.
Yeah, but they got real nice roads all new and shiny. We gotta spend money on something. Should it be more tax cuts for the richest or should we invest in somethings to replace oil?
Do I spend my allowance on crack or buy a coca shrub from south america? One's an investment and one is an immediate gratifaction of a questionable nature.
People need to be cared for, otherwise we are merely animals wearing clothing. learn we must and mistakes will be many, but its either try again or lie down and die. The entire system is a ruse, a tool we use to deal with each other, nothing says the system can't change, even people change, though usually we have to kidnap them, tie em in duct tape and perform strange ceremonies, first.
Change is predicated on desire, a static system is dead and stagnates. When it becomes in the best interest of those with a vested interest in keeping a system captive, all they ultimately accomplish is destroying that which they sought to preserve, a static system dies, even a captive one.
If everbody is bankrupt, no one is bankrupt. If everyone is poor no one is poor, it is a hall of mirrors, amusing at first but ultimately unpleasant and the only real joy comes when you are out of it.
Actually we took that money and pissed it away on The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009.
"Clearly, the Great American Job Machine is breaking down..."
When articles about job loss in America rely on stupid, trite expressions like that quoted above, you know you are dealing with a shallow exercise and a waste of both trees and bandwidth. The Great American Job Machine spent the last 25 years outsourcing American jobs, especially, but not only, in the manufacturing sector to locations abroad in Asia, Latin America and elsewhere. Americans, largely unrepresented by Unions, especially effective ones, stood idly by and allowed their jobs to be transfered elsewhere, to put it politely. Putting in more appropriate, political language, Americans allowed the corporate capitalists to take from them their livelihoods. And now we have to put up with little statistical essays talking about the number of jobs created recently, whether they are part-time and what their average wage is. That sort of informational spin is disingenuous, at best, beside the point and misleading. Here's the deal: Unless and until manufacturing jobs and good service sector jobs are mandated to be repatriated to America, there will not be any jobs worthy of the name. I don't here pretend that it will be easy to re-establish good jobs in America, but that is not because doing so is not relatively easy and straight forward; for it is easy to do that. What is difficult is that such a mechanism cannot be done within the political confines of corporate capitalism. That system mandates getting work done for the cheapest rate possible, with $0/hr. being the "gold standard" not seen in America since the mid-1860s.
Fiat currency is the problem. You can't outsouce jobs to a country that doesn't have a capital structue. When the capital structure is built from scratch with sound money, it creats a lot jobs because there is a lot of work to be done. Higher order goods are needed and wages rise. By the time the captial structure is reading to accept manufacturing requests, the standard of living is much higher and therefor doesn't have the same advantage. When China can supress their currency and borrow some US know how, they rapidly spead up that process which takes way, way less labor and innovation and doen't allow for nearly as much of a wage increase. Couple that with being able to surpress wages, China creates a false competative advantage at the price of their citizens.
How to fix the economy:
Default
End the Fed
Sound money sytem
Remove amost every Fed government department
Bring all troops home
Eliminate corpoate tax
Eliminate licese/rules/regulations/etc..
Elimate all entitlements
Everyone pays exact same tax rate
you forgot to add :
Tax banks 1% on all derivative transactions to fund Social Security so our elder won't die of starvation . That's all it would take, Robert Rubin & Blankfein & Hank Paulsen & that other Paulson guy have plenty, they could EASILY feed a million hungry people with their lose change.
People should get what they're owed and certainly it wouldn't be a hard stop.
Economists fail to consider the "yang" of efficiency, only the "ying". The more efficient you become, the less there is to do. If it once took 3 economists to change a light bulb, and now it only takes 1 and it's a florescent, how do you now "employ" the other 2?
The intelligent use of surplus resources is construction of infrastructure which increases standard of living and produces long-term benefits for everyone. But since you can't make a quick buck flipping that sort of thing, we don't do it.
We *could* be living in a techno-wonderland a la Tokyo in the USA. The reason we aren't has nothing to do with lack of resources or potential benefits.
Interest rates are the key singal to produce either consumer goods or proudce goods if they set by the market.
Of course the basis for all decisions a society makes can be modeled on a single-variable plot. For example, it was Greenspan's low interest rates that resulted in the USA building its cross-country mag-lev bullet train system, starting the first Mars colony, and building the first solar desalinating irrigating power-plants providing water to the Southwest.
(herpy derp derp jerp herp derp)
I really don't see how that isn't blatently obvious to monteary theory that there is a huge difference in capital goods and consumer goods. What happens when the effect wears off, demand collapses and I'm stuck with brand new idol bulldozer.
...
What's "blatantly obvious" is that you can't explain EVERY SINGLE ASPECT of economic behavior through interest rates. Are you really not getting this?
What was happening in the '70s when interest rates were high? Were we developing infrastructure or producing consumer goods?
Think back, or read a history book, whatever. Got your answer? Good.
Now...
What was happening the '80s when interest rates were low? Were we doing the same, or the opposite, of what we had been doing in the '70s?
*My* analysis suggests that a SINGLE FUCKING VARIABLE doesn't really answer all the questions one might wish to ask about a national economy.
Although easy to provide, *any* stupid-simple answer is guaranteed to be wrong.
That goes for blame as well. Having a convenient target of one person is not helpful. There never has been a President or member of Congress who, of his own force of will, has had the capability of turning around an economy or of destroying one. Therein lies the beauty of the Democratic system -- and its demise.
Well, I dunno...I think you can make a pretty good argument that Kevin Bacon has been closely related to everything that went wrong over the past 30 years.
That is one obvious part of the puzzle that has escaped me.
Thanks for the heads-up!
I think his brother Kanadian Bacon is better, though he is a bit hammy.
Speaking of ham, didn't there used to be a poster named Hammy Weiner or somesuch who was convinced the economy was going gangbusters and it was all unicorns and rainbows? Haven't seen him post lately, must be busy filling out unemployment forms.
You can eat the 2 extra economists. Soylent Green is Economists!
That explains the metallic taste.
GW had the worst job creation record since 1948 when records started being kept ... obummer has kept the dismal record going ... massive tax cuts for the richest 1% should turn this baby around ... ha hahahahahahahahah
As far as there being more part-time versus full-time jobs created, would this be due to the impending health care changes? I'm not sure if there is a loophole that allows the employer to forgo providing "approved" health insurance or face a fine for any employees not employed "full-time".
I've been contemplating how to go back to basics - what I can do to support myself wife, 2 dogs and a mortgage, and no where near financially solvent enough to retire - at 57 - should I voluntarily or involuntarily leave my employment; what can I make and sell? what can on grow on my 2 acres of ground? and I'm f'in 57 - not 17 - I could sell the ranch for a small net profit and have maybe net worth of $200k in my pocket and nowhere to live; prospects seem a bit grim to me - best case senario is I take the big dirt nap and the ball and chain gets the life insurnace payout and doesnt have to sweat anything - all free and clear. I'd like to make bird houses. Just not sure how much income that would generate - God Bless the Bank of America ! Amen and Amen !
you can't pay the inflated mortgage on declining income. Get rid of the balls and chains, I guess
Cannabis has a quite substantial profit margin. It requires an isignificant amount of labor when compared to the financial rewards. It is probably better to grow it indoors for a number of reasons. This offer is void where prohibited.
The Kennedy, and many other, fortunes were made on bootlegging. Illegal enterprises are the cornerstone of many great families, the opium trade built much of the east coast wealth. No risk no reward. If you get caught and go to jail, there is your retirement. 3 squares and a cot and a healthplan and cable tv.
Desperate times require desperate measures. Your mileage may vary.
You could also build or buy a still and try making your own private label. The treasury dept might not see eye to eye with your business plan.
The blackmarket will increase in this nation as in every 3rd world nation as the powers that be fail to fix our slide into latin america. Might as well be on the cutting edge of a new trend.
Nailed it - Cannabis is on my list of potentials - just have to keep the kids and the cops out of it ! Too Funny ! Made my day !
Keep the birdhouse business idea going as well, you'll need a cover business to placate nosy neighbors, cops, irs etc. Also a great way to cleanse funds and provide cover for other activities.
Canada has more favorable laws regarding agriculture of certain banned products.
The laws of the current nanny state require me to mention that this entire conversation is a work of fiction and should not be construed as condoning or encouraging any illegal activities now or in the future.
"Cannabis is on my list of potentials .."
Who cares? Kim Kardashian x-rayed her butt!
Who is this Kim Kardashian of whom you speak?
These droids are not the droids you are looking for, look elsewhere.
Working for greenbacks and barter is so much more satisfying than having to piss away money into the .gov singularity.
Watch the YouTube video...
The Manchurian President - A story of war and deception
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PhOwfn4wA8k
This is the true house of cards that will topple all others.
Fuck you Zuckerman, I hope your real estae empire crumbles to dust.
You loved the unknown Obama.
I think that The Zuck got shafted by his former hero. He was all gung-ho in the beginning but there were no bones thrown his way, hence is present sour state of mind. The guy is slimy.
"Between 2001 and 2003, Zuckerman was the chairman of the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations." Wikipedia
Mort is a Canadian billionaire, the 147th richest person in America. He is, like Mayor Bloomberg, an ardent supporter of legal immigration and amnesty for illegals.
Not even considering all of the various visas for bringing workers from abroad into America to take Americans' jobs, just LEGAL immigration and all the various additions to that category equates to millions coming in and competing for jobs with real Americans each and every year. .gov discriminates against Whites and encourages, through force of law, private companies to also discriminate against whites in employment.
Morty won't ever talk about that. Why is that Morty?
If you DO have a job well this happens, not just for ITs either, read this about a woman from India who went after this American White woman:
Another tech-worker, Diane Drozdowski, was forced out of her job at American Express in Phoenix, AZ. After her manager used "bully tactics and psychological warfare" to try to get her to quit, resulting in a mental breakdown, she was replaced by two Indian workers based in India. American Express flew these Indian workers to Phoenix and forced her to train them, upon threat of losing her severance pay.
Diane Drozdowski's testimony is at link:
http://washtech.org/news/industry/display.php?ID_Content=5363
>[immigrants] take Americans' jobs
This fallacy is ancient and well-known to economists. I strongly recommend reading "Economics In One Lesson" by Hazlitt. It's free online. It's also a fun and easy read.
Mort Zuckerman what the hell did you think would happen when you and all of your friends brought Obama to the White House. Zero experience in business, two years in the US Senate where he voted present and never authored one damn piece of legislation, and now he clearly demonstrates himself as an empty suit. Idiot.
When you misrepresent some basic facts, it tends to discredit everything you write, even if the rest (or much of it at least) is accurate. I repeat the following facts (pay attention this time, blockhead):
B/D adjustment of 206K must be compared to non-seasonally adjusted payroll gain of 682K. Thus, in May, B/D accounted for 30% of non-seasonally adjusted payroll gain. In April the figures were 175K vs 1172K for 15%, March was 117K vs 905K for 13%, and February was 112K vs 811K for 14%. So, May share accounted for by B/D was twice that of the prior three months. Big, but not to the degree that mindless comparisons of 206K to 54K are.
Deleted -- inadvertent duplicate post.
In 1969 I was earning $2.64 at my summer job. In 1976 I was earning approx. $10 / hour working for the State of Ohio. In 1984 I was earning $14 / hour working for the airlines with lots of "perks" / $5 tickets for family members / health care, etc.
Then, 1991, i'm "job retraining" under President Herbert Walker Bush. In 1995 I am again "job retraining" under President Clinton. In 1999 I try unsuccessfully to find any gainful employment, because, then, I was a woman labeled as "re-entering the workforce after raising a family ." Now, I can't even find a $8.50/hour WALMART job ...............
Am I the only one who remembers all the "lingo", all the crappy shit propaganda coming out of Washington D.C. & Wall St. to always dangle that carrot in front of the American Citizen as to what they had to do & what they had to accept to get a decent job !!!
"job re-train" / " re-enter the workforce after raising a family " / "going back to school to re-train " / "the average worker will have over 8 jobs in his lifetime " ............ all this smacks of bullshit to me + the fact that now they've looted the U.S. TREASURY & SOCIAL SECURITY was looted a long time ago . home equity evaporates, jobs offshored, stockmarket crashes, worst one is yet to come, dollar collapse with impending hyperinflation ........ where the hell's the revolution ? !
Bingo....
We are the foot soldiers. The Generals of the establishment are the bankers. You cannot engage them directly. Guerrilla tactics require you to drain their resources while increasing or maintaining yours.
Disengage from their financial system.
The black markets await you, join the illegals and the elites in working without paying taxes, selling contraband and trading information. Its a time honored tradition.
Believe nothing you see, hear or read in the corporate media, in fact it would be best to get rid of your television and keep a radio only for weather emergencies.
Learn how to live cheap, you'll need it. Consider what you will do when the electricity no longer works. At some point it will be cutoff by one side or the other. Store water and food and medicine.
Realise things are a lot more dire than the appear in the corporate media and realize the only person who will look out for your interests, is you.
Go Greek, eh? That worked great until they sent up drones to scout out all the swimming pools for taxation! Live like you preach: Frugal. Hiding your Rolex won't cut it.
My swimming pool is stocked with trout and has a mud bottom.
Best to learn how to live without the system while it is still available to you ,when you make a mistake, because the system's life can be measured in single years.
If something can't continue, it won't. Certainly unemployment, foreclosures and food stamp use, can be used as indicators to tell which way the wind is blowing. In my neighborhood it feels like a storm is brewing, the funny thing about storms is once they get started its very difficult to stop them.
Plan accordingly.
You've outlined a great entrepreneurial opportunity?
"Natural pools, Inc."
We build swimming pools like the old swimming holes of your youth. Grassy slopes, irregular shapes, with a sturdy oak tree and a tire-swing for the kids. It'll look like a natural part of your outdoor living area. All sturdily constructed from the most durable polyurethanes and other synthetics.
2 questions:
1. Can we get em made in China?
2. Can we IPO in 18 months or less?
we need a website, nobody takes you seriously unless you have a website.
see if oldswimminghole.com is available.
Merry prankster you are in fine fettle today.
Will you outsource the website design to me in india? I'll do it Cheeply.
ORI
Will you work for stock options we're a bit tight on cash flow til the suckers, er investors come on board, but right now your my first and only choice for the position. Could you loan us some furniture for the lobby?
"My swimming pool is stocked with trout and has a mud bottom"
I stocked three of ours with fathead minnows, catfish and bluegill. The great blue herons all got fat, and now that there hasn't been any meaningful rain here in months, the water levels are precariously low.
OTOH, an above ground pool (round, 27' and 55" deep [Doughboy expandable bottom) makes a fine emergency water supply, with nearly 15,000 gallons of clean water to bath and cook with. It was a lifesaver when we lost power for a week once after a hurricane.
Well said. Also recommend Dmitry Orlov's book "Reinventing Collapse", excellent short and darkly humourous read. He's a Russian living in the US, and discusses the collapse of the Soviet Union and how much of what happened compares to what is happing in the US today. Lots of useful tidbits, sounds like Merry Prankster already read it.
Mr. Zuckerman, the current depression has been entirely predictable by use of classical economic analysis. Those who use or defer to Keynesian theory simply want to mislead or to be misled. U. S. economic policies are designed to achieve downsizing of the productive economy, which amounts to destroying the middle class per the agenda of the dominant elite. This is not mere conjecture. It is a matter of provable historical and contemporary fact. See my book, which is due out July 6, at http://classicalcapital.com
Mort makes some good points!
Our political leadership in both Congress and the White House will surely bear the political costs of a failure to work out short- and long-term programs to fix the job shortage.
This is not a purely Repub vs Demo thing, but to be fair, the Demos were totally in power from early 2009 to 2011, so much of the blame for policy failures must fall at their feet.
When the Bamster was elected with his "anti business" platform, employers, especially small businesses accepted that he was telling the truth, he would "spread the wealth" a bit. They hunkered down and as it turns out, they were right, Bam etal has been the worst thing for this country, maybe EVER.
This was all so predictable, now it will take years to undo the damage, if it can be fixed at all.
sschu
What are the big policy changes that occurred between '09-'11?
Looks to me like the economy's been in the shitter since the tech bubble collapsed if you don't squint your eyes all funny. In the past 15 years it's been a tag-team of various parties bouncing in and out of control of various branches.
Hard to imagine how anyone other than a partisan would lay significantly "more" blame on the Dems or the Reps.
What are the big policy changes that occurred between '09-'11?
Are you serious?
Stimulus
ObamaCare
Financial reform
GM/Chrysler heavy handed BK
Oil drilling moratorium
Add to it the Bamsters public claim to "spread the wealth a little", to run coal companies out of business and "fundamentally remake America" and what else do you need?
sschu
You might want to roll back your clock to at least the elimination of the Glass-Steagall provisions. That leads you to Lindsey Graham and few other creeps.
None of those are at all real except Obamacare. If you really think anything you've listed is *causing* problems we're seeing, please elaborate.
You sound like a politician. Soundbites, not substance.
None of those are at all real except Obamacare. If you really think anything you've listed is *causing* problems we're seeing, please elaborate.
except Obamacare !! I could fly except for the force of gravity! LOL!
Stimulus - spending/wasting $1 trillion ($877B plus interest) propping up failed state governments and bankrupt federal programs is not a good use of our resources. This absurd waste of money at a time when we do not have much extra had no positive effect and although difficult to measure, had a negative effect. Debt saturation and marginal utility of debt (in this case negative) are common themes around here.
Financial reform - 2,000 pages of gibberish that no one read or understands - maybe, just maybe, this is a problem? How about real reform of our broken financial institutions and systems?
Bilking GM bondholders - that really helps the idea that we are a nation of laws and rules.
$100 oil should motivate us to drill for more, instead we decide to give money to Brazil to drill in their waters. We determine we cannot access our own resources, but of course this does not stop others from accessing oil in the same spot.
I will add one - re-hirng Bernanke. After Obamacare, maybe the worst of the lot.
sschu
Yes, I agree the stimulus was wasteful. But it didn't cause our current problems!
Financial reform legislation is all bullshit. But it didn't cause our current problems!
Bilking GM bondholders was a bad call--GM should've been allowed to fail, and they'd have gotten whatever was left. Indeed, poor use of resources. But it didn't cause our current problems!
We've had $100 oil (and over) in the past, yet even back in the '00s when Dubya was on his Excellent Iraq Adventure, we didn't drill for more oil here. The moriatorium didn't cause our current problems!
I agree with your distaste for those policies and decisions--my point is that you're nuts if you think that it was that tiny handful of changes that led to catastrophic collapse of a $14 trillion economy. Virtually *nothing* would be different if the right-hand puppet had been elected instead of Obama, or if the Republicans had controlled the Senate for the past 5 years.
The government and the US are wayyyy too big for any significant trends to turn around in 2 years. That just can't happen. *Most* of what is killing us has been coming since the mid-70s.
Blame Dems or Obama if you want, but if you do, don't expect any non-partisan to care what you have to say.
+100
This boat was put on course decades ago.
I do not really gives a rats*ss if you consider me partisan. It is clear to the most casual observer that the “problems” cited are a direct result of the progressive policies of the left. Let’s start with Bryan and Teddy Roosevelt and Wilson, who gave us the Fed and the income tax, to FDR’s New Deal to Johnson’s Great Society and now Obama’s nationalized healthcare system. These policies are exemplified, enacted and practiced primarily, but not exclusively, by the Democrat party and they have reached their pinnacle (so far) with the current administration. This progessive movement, rooted in Marxism and secular humanism, is the scourge of the world.
These are the facts and they are unassailable however much you want to deny and obfuscate. But your unwillingness to look at the last 2.5 years of utter incompetence and claim that this is “not the cause” borders on insanity. It is exactly the cause, the idea that the government can control people’s lives and there will be no consequences … and like the enabler of the crack addict, your denial simply allows them to continue their destructive ways.
sschu
Xanax and a horizontal positon seem to be indicated
Huh. Oookay. You're not only a partisan, you're also a moron. Thanks for clearing that up.
you're also a moron.
I was waiting for the name calling, it always happens when progressives are confronted with reality and have no rational response.
Suggest you tune out MSNBC, stop ready HuffPo and put the bong down. You just might learn some truth.
sschu
You really want me to be a liberal, because you have an irrational hatred of them.
Unfortunately, even conservatives can easily see you're a moron.
I do not hate you, heck I do not even know you. So I will assume by your posts that you are a “liberal”.
But I hate what the progressive movement, now called liberalism, has done. The ideas and policies of progressives have been the worst thing to happen to the world, maybe ever.
So if you are a “liberal;” and believe in these ideas, why not just say so and defend the policies enacted as a result of these ideas? Let’s debate the ideas, liberalism vs conservatism, the ideas, not the personalities or politicians. And we now have 100 years of progressivism with which to refer, defend it if you believe in it.
sschu
I'm not much of a liberal per the common definition *today,* but I'm a big fan of liberal thought and the advancement of liberal philosophy, which gave us the likes of Locke and Hume, the American Revolution, Constitutionally-limited tricameral governments, etc.
But you don't sound like a "conservative." You sound like a Republican. Thinking Republicans are somehow inherently conservative is the main problem. They're not--they're big-spending authoritarian statists who expand government at every opportunity and seek intervention opportunities in markets and distant countries whenever it will benefit their favored business interests.
They're a lot like Democrats.
mean reversion is a biatch
Welcome to US corporatocracy suicide! White men can no longer govern themselves(much less think straight) without trying to loot everything in sight, that's why they voted for a black man! White men also think that they can outsource jobs to China and then sell China made goods in US for big profits forever..
The truth is stranger than fiction, ain't that right Mort.
Greed is colorblind. Corruption is a matter of location, being properly situated in the culture allows one to exploit it, this is more a matter of schooling and networking. I am being redundant the schools are of course the primary conduit for networking.
Look at attorney general Alberto Gonzales to see that absolute power corrupts absolutely irregardless of color, creed or ethos.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/27/washington/27cnd-gonzales.html
Barrack Obama is a brown man who has been corrupted by the process and his station.
If corruption is guaranteed by the system, it is not so much a failure of persons, but a failure of the system. Perhaps the system needs to be changed?
Heckaroonies, the problem here is easily solved...why does anyone think this is difficult:
1. End immigrats. Under what condition does this country, with failing water supplies, states that look like Delhi streets with teeming diseased masses (see LA), and a government jobs that have been stuffed with foreigners in order to hide the real numbers: immigrats plus family reunification Plus people like Jose Vargas who feels that "no one can take away from him that he is an American" or so such twaddle, just noting here that unless Vargas is living amongst the horde from which he came, the mongrels who wish to preempt this countries sovereign right based on "compassion" (aka self-genocide), then the immigrats are an internal danger from which we cannot recover. For instance, outside of Boise, Idaho apparently the Chinese are attempting to buy large swaths of land as a bulkhead and infusion into the United States prior to the full on invasion. And if you think it ain't coming you be not too bright. So the immigrats have weakened the US, after all, other countries believe in the soveriegnty of their countries, but we are to believe that we should accept the third world's floatsam as our responsibility even as it destroys our social glue, our way of life, our children's right to the "seed corn" future that should be theirs with its fresh air, water supplies untainted by the trash of too many people and the disjointed incivility of those "getting theirs" because that's how they do it where they are from. And of course, the Giant Industrial Welfare Complex that breeds children without manners and whose brians are turned to mush as the parents continue their agenda of breeding via gutter exchanges of body fluids without regard for the costs (all costs paid for by government...whooo watch Jerry Springer and see the men with fifteen children of Judge Judy and the women who are their children's "nurse" (paid by the gubbermint to "nurse" their own children). Ah yes, the giant welfare complex aka The Idiocracy (watch it again, if you've seen it and shudder in fear; if you've not seen it you'll need a stout whiskey or two, but go ahead, watch, and then ask yourself about that whole "compassion" thing. Churches once did a great job before "compassion" became the sine qua none of every two bit noblesse oblige who wanted to self-anoint themselves as a "giving back" kinda person...these people often just looking for some public relations. Churches held high standards for help: commitment to changing; one-time short-term, and most of all, that one did whatever one could, worked any job to help oneself.) There is not enough money that can be made by the productive to keep up with the unproductive on our backs. They can procreate faster than you can create profits. ha ha ha...see: Dr. Zhivago and the great example of the pilloring of the productive, the educated and the "betters" when the communist morlocks get their hands on things (think TSA as the perfect example; do any of those people own an iron? change their underpants...they stink!...their hair is filthy and they wear too much make up; the male TSA guys intrusively look at the private areas of women, and children! Ah yes, you have allowed the worst of society to "cup" you in order to fly...what can be next?
Heckaroonies, the problem here is easily solved...why does anyone think this is difficult:
1. End immigrats. Under what condition does this country, with failing water supplies, states that look like Delhi streets with teeming diseased masses (see LA), and a government jobs that have been stuffed with foreigners in order to hide the real numbers: immigrats plus family reunification Plus people like Jose Vargas who feels that "no one can take away from him that he is an American" or so such twaddle, just noting here that unless Vargas is living amongst the horde from which he came, the mongrels who wish to preempt this countries sovereign right based on "compassion" (aka self-genocide), then the immigrats are an internal danger from which we cannot recover. For instance, outside of Boise, Idaho apparently the Chinese are attempting to buy large swaths of land as a bulkhead and infusion into the United States prior to the full on invasion. And if you think it ain't coming you be not too bright. So the immigrats have weakened the US, after all, other countries believe in the soveriegnty of their countries, but we are to believe that we should accept the third world's floatsam as our responsibility even as it destroys our social glue, our way of life, our children's right to the "seed corn" future that should be theirs with its fresh air, water supplies untainted by the trash of too many people and the disjointed incivility of those "getting theirs" because that's how they do it where they are from. And of course, the Giant Industrial Welfare Complex that breeds children without manners and whose brians are turned to mush as the parents continue their agenda of breeding via gutter exchanges of body fluids without regard for the costs (all costs paid for by government...whooo watch Jerry Springer and see the men with fifteen children of Judge Judy and the women who are their children's "nurse" (paid by the gubbermint to "nurse" their own children). Ah yes, the giant welfare complex aka The Idiocracy (watch it again, if you've seen it and shudder in fear; if you've not seen it you'll need a stout whiskey or two, but go ahead, watch, and then ask yourself about that whole "compassion" thing. Churches once did a great job before "compassion" became the sine qua none of every two bit noblesse oblige who wanted to self-anoint themselves as a "giving back" kinda person...these people often just looking for some public relations. Churches held high standards for help: commitment to changing; one-time short-term, and most of all, that one did whatever one could, worked any job to help oneself.) There is not enough money that can be made by the productive to keep up with the unproductive on our backs. They can procreate faster than you can create profits. ha ha ha...see: Dr. Zhivago and the great example of the pilloring of the productive, the educated and the "betters" when the communist morlocks get their hands on things (think TSA as the perfect example; do any of those people own an iron? change their underpants...they stink!...their hair is filthy and they wear too much make up; the male TSA guys intrusively look at the private areas of women, and children! Ah yes, you have allowed the worst of society to "cup" you in order to fly...what can be next?
Learn about paragraphs, punctuation and spelling. It gives the reader a chance to try to understand your ideas rather than expending effort attempting to understand context and meaning, and allows a logical structure to be built that nutures the readers towards an understanding of your ideas and premise.
You serve no one and gain nothing by serving obtuse, dense and poorly written prose. If its worth the time and effort to write it down, you might as well polish it a bit and improve the chances it might get read and actually affect someone's thinking.
Distill it to its essence, make a point clearly with insight. If something is unclear, someone will ask for clarification. We live in a TV culture where most people can't pay attention for more than 60 seconds, write for your audience.
P.S. TSA sucks and are merely terror theater for the zombies.
Congress will still allow 2 million immigrants to come here each year (legal and otherwise). Our corporate masters need cheap labor and American citizens can be damned.
Obama does not want illegal immigrants to be deported because he needs their votes in 2012.
zuckerman, go fuck yourself..."Twenty-three months into a recovery" my fat ass....the picture you painted is not a recovery except to your psychopathic bankster friends sucking the lifeblood out of the economy to create the new feudalistic state....you disgust me bitch....
there will be no new jobs created as long as capital is sequestered in brain dead operations....but we have to preserve 6 figure bonuses for banksters whose fucktarded actions have destroyed an economy - to reward them for their incompetencies bolstered by politicians and their plutocratic overlords....
no.....we do not have a recovery...i hope the hamptons sink into the ocean
" One fifth of all men of prime working age are not getting up and going to work. Equally disturbing is that the number of people unemployed for six months or longer grew 361,000 to 6.2 million, increasing their share of the unemployed to 45.1 percent. We face the specter that long-term unemployment is becoming structural and not just cyclical, raising the risk that the jobless will lose their skills and become permanently unemployable."
This is BS to convince you to shut up, go to your workplace, do your job, and don't question your corporate master. They act as if people aren't able to be re-trained past a certain point. It's the fact that employers do not want to retrain you (costs too much). Even if you're intelligent you're nervous not to get out of line in fear of being "unemployable."
Nice editorial Mort, but where's the beef? Not a solution offered.