• GoldCore
    07/30/2014 - 18:58
    “But long term...and economic law says, if you keep printing a lot of paper money, the value of the dollar and currency will go down, and things and most prices will go up and indeed gold always goes...

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Social Media Is Making People Dumber, Fears Elliott's Paul Singer

Ask yourself the following set of questions: Do people seem better informed today in the developed world? Smarter? Is the discourse more sophisticated? The answer is a resounding “no” to all those questions... In the absence of [a basic ground in history, political science, philosophy and civilization], all of these Twitter and Facebook bits alight on a population that lacks the tools to sort or analyze what they are reading while scrunched over their Androids... This overabundance of information and opinion is not a positive development in our view (although we are certainly not suggesting it be curtailed or controlled by governments).



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Deal Or No Deal? Argentina Declared In Selective Default, Holds Press Conference - Live Feed

After an exuberant day in Argentine bond and stock markets, we are nearing a decision. With a handful of hours left until it's all over, various 'deal's have been proposed today from Argentine bankers as a last-minute rescue package. S&P has already decided that it's a done deal:

  • *ARGENTINA CUT TO SD FROM CCC- BY S&P
  • *ARGENTINA DEFAULTED ON $13B IN FOREIGN DEBT, S&P SAYS
  • *ARGENTINA MISSED $539M BOND PAYMENT, S&P SAYS

And now, Argentine Economy Minister Axel Kicillof will speak in a press conference at country’s consulate in Manhattan (ironically a block from the holdouts' office).



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Whole Foods Discovers Stock Buybacks, And It's Too Little Too Late: Stock Tumbles Again

Whole Foods management seems to have read our lament and acted accordingly. On the chart below see if you can figure out which is the company's quarterly stock repurchase and capex activity without peeking at the legend.

 



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Portuguese Regulator Bans Short-Selling After Banco Espirito Santo Unveils Massive $5 Billion Loss

Having waited until after the US equity markets closed, Portugal's troubled Banco Espirito Santo unveiled an enormous EUR 3.577 Billion loss - that is 15 times larger than the loss the bank suffered a year earlier. The data  - to end-June, before the crisis really got going - already shows notable deposit flight, a 73.1% plunge in banking income, and a EUR 3 billion collapse in repoable assets (i.e. liquidity). On the heels of this Portugal's securities regulator has enforced a short-selling ban on BES... we suspect they would not have done that if all was systemically well in Portugal.



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Right Now: House Voting Whether To Sue Obama

House Republicans are expected to formally approve their lawsuit against President Obama today. As John Boehner wrote earlier in the week, "President Obama has overstepped his constitutional authority — and it is the responsibility of the House of Representatives to defend the Constitution." Voting has started on the 'impeachment lite' bill...



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Bonds & Black Gold Battered But Stocks Give Up GDP Gains

While equity markets were in focus for the mainstream, the big moves today occurred in Treasuries and oil prices. From the GDP release this morning, Treasury yields surged higher, rallied briefly after FOMC, before closing near the high-yields of the day (up around 10bps or the most in 9 months). Oil prices started to tumble at around 1030ET, flushed again on EU close, tumbled early afternoon on sanctions headlines, then pumped-and-dumped after FOMC to close at near 3-month lows (below $100). Equity markets surged on GDP, dumped on sanctions, pumped-and-dumped on FOMC, then lifted to the close. Only the Nasdaq ends the day above pre-GDP data levels. On the day, only the Dow closed the day red. Gold and silver chopped around in a narrow range as the USD index roundtripped from early GDP gains after FOMC. VIX closed modestly higher on the day. The Russell 2000 is -4.2% for July, its worst month in 2 years.



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Obama's Message To Republicans: "Stop Just Hatin’ All The Time"

Two weeks ago the head of the "most transparent administration ever" (perhaps to the NSA?), president Obama, told the common American to "not be cynical" and have hope. Today, speaking appropriately in an ornate theater in Kansas City, he had a message for republicans: "Stop being mad all the time. Stop. Stop. Stop just hatin’ all the time."



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White House Retaliates, "Condemns" Israeli Shelling Of UN School In Gaza

Following yesterday's scandalous release of the Obama-Natanyahu phone call transcript by Israel's Channel 1, which officials on both sides have claimed was a fake (due to its clearly negative implications for US foreign policy which appears painfully weak) yet which the media outlet has defended as authentic, citing a "senior American official" as a source, one was wondering how long it would take for the White House to "teach" Israel a lesson, and put it in its place. The answer: less than 24 hours. Moments ago, the White House officially "condemned" the shelling of a United Nations school in Gaza that local authorities estimated killed at least 15 Palestinians who were sheltering there.



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Goldman's FOMC Post-Mortem: "Slightly Hawkish Tilt"

As always, for the best take of what the Fed was thinking, skip Hilsenrath and go straight to the people who provide it with its talking points. Here is Goldman's Jan Hatzius with hos  post-mortem of the just released FOMC minutes.



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Stocks Give Up Post-FOMC Gains, Dollar Drops, Gold Flat

Oil prices are holding below $100 and gold (after oscillating) is flat post FOMC. Stocks have roundtripped and given up the kneejerk gains as the USDollar has sold off notably (retracing its gains from GDP earlier in the day). Treasury yields are lower post-FOMC.



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G7 Condemns Acts In Ukraine, Threatens To "Intensify The Costs" On Russia

As had been rumored all day, The G7 just issued yet another statement on Ukraine showing its wholehearted support for sanctions:

  • *G-7 LEADERS ISSUE STATEMENT CONDEMNING RUSSIAN ACTS IN UKRAINE
  • *G-7 LEADERS SAY READY TO 'INTENSIFY THE COSTS' ON RUSSIA

The statement, released by The White House, also demands "transparent" access to the MH17 crash site. As this was released, the EU announced its sanctions list (8 people, 3 entities).



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Fed Tapers Another $10 Billion, Raises Inflation Concerns, Plosser Dissents - Statement Redline

As expected, The FOMC continued its taper pace at $10bn but what was supposed to be a 'steady as she goes' statement had a few surprises:

  • *PLOSSER DISSENTS ON DECISION, CITING GUIDANCE ON RATE OUTLOOK
  • *FOMC SEES SIGNIFICANT UNDERUTILIZATION OF LABOR RESOURCES
  • *FOMC: ODDS OF PERSISTENT SUB-2% INFLATION `DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT'

More of the same but some modestly hawkish sentiment sneaking in regarding improving labor markets. Oddly - no trade recommendations from Yellen. Full redline below...

Pre-FOMC: S&P Futs 1961.5, 10Y 2.55%, JPY 102.90, Gold $1294



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WTI Crude Oil Tumbles Below $100 - 10-Week Lows

It appears global geopolitical risk is fixed... WTI crude futures have tumbled back below $100 this afternoon to their equal lowest since early May. Despite warnings from Russia over higher energy prices, oil is well below MH17 headlines levels...



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FOMC Preview: Dashboards, Dissent, & "Degree-Of-Accommodation" Differences

"More of the same," should summarize today's FOMC statement. There will be no press conference or refresh of the 'dot plot' economic projections. The Fed is expected to continue to taper by $10 billion with confirmation that the "growth meme" is playing out just as they projected (especially after today's GDP print). Goldman believes the focus will be on the jobs 'dashboard' and recent inflation data enables the dovish Fed to argue recent moves were noise and stay easier for longer. The downside risk (for markets) may be that Fed hawks will likely have little luck in altering the way forward guidance is employed by the Fed (and chatter over a Fisher dissent is possible).



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French Housing "In Total Meltdown", "Current Figures Are Disastrous"

If Venezuela is the case study of a country in the late stages of transition into a socialist utopia, then France is the clear runner up. The most recent case in point, aside from the already sliding French economy, whose recent contraction can be best seen be deteriorating PMI data which hints at the dreaded "triple dip" recession, nowhere is the economic collapse in France more evident than in its housing market which as even Bloomberg admits, citing industry participants, is now "in total meltdown." Pierre-Andre de Chalendar, chief executive officer of Saint-Gobain, summarized the current dire situation best: "Current figures are worrying and will be disastrous if nothing is done; clients of the building sector are sounding the alarm bell.



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