Chris Pavese's blog

Once upon a time, Western opinion leaders found themselves both impressed and frightened by the extraordinary growth rates achieved by a set of Eastern economies. Although those economies were still substantially poorer and smaller than those of the West, the speed with which they had transformed themselves from peasant societies into industrial powerhouses, their continuing ability to achieve growth rates several times higher than the advanced nations, and their increasing ability to challenge or even surpass American and European technology in certain areas seemed to call into question the dominance not only of Western power but of Western ideology...

It would appear that European leaders are back at their usual table.

Speaking at the Bookings Institute before meeting with the US administration, Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou blamed “unprincipled speculators” and “ill-regulated” financial markets for pushing Greece to the brink of financial ruin and dragging down the euro. Along the way he convinced France’s Nicholas Sarkozy, that another financial crisis is around the corner if the CDS market is not curtailed. Sadly, we agree with the conclusion, but many European “leaders” are confusing cause and effect. Keith McCullough, at Hedgeye, explained it best yesterday when he said, “markets don’t lie; politicians do . . . hearing politicians talk about markets is like watching a southern belle try to ice fish.”

A few weeks ago, we noted the potential for an oversold bounce despite what appeared to be a clear shift in the investment landscape. Now that most major equity indices have rallied for two consecutive weeks (with the S&P 500 stalling at a 50 DMA which looks to be rolling over), it is critical to assess the underlying strength of this move. Suffice it to say, that the evidence is mixed at best. Many of our immediate term commodity and commodity currency models have moved back into “buy” territory, but we view Dollar Strength as a BIG RED DEFLATIONARY FLAG.

In our recent post, Coming to America, we encouraged readers to study Nail Ferguson’s concerns voiced in the Financial Times – A Greek crisis is coming to America. It does not take a wild imagination to see that ballooning debt levels on government balance sheets pose a grave systemic risk to the global economy and capital markets. This is precisely why we are left with our tongue on the floor when we hear Nobel laureate Joseph E. Stiglitz describing the prospect of a US or UK default as absurd, “particularly in the US because all we do is print money to pay it back.”

We can’t help but share the “shocking” news we came across in the Sunday Times that former US Treasury Secretary (and former Goldman Sachs CEO) Hank Paulson does not believe that banning proprietary trading at large banks (i.e. Goldman Sachs) insured by tax payer dollars is a good idea. Since most of those in Washington with the power to formulate financial reform have spent most of their careers on Wall Street, and maintain close ties with their former pals, this “shocking” news should not come as a surprise. But it still makes us sick to our stomach.

China recently raised the Reserve Requirement Ratio by 50 bps to 16.5% for its domestic banks. This is the second hike in the past month and certainly not the last as China’s economy is still sprinting ahead. While equity markets have begun to price in the risk of “global exit strategies,” currency markets have yet to consider the implications of continued strong underlying growth in China. It is likely that additional Chinese monetary tightening will be accompanied by pressure to revalue the yuan.

One of these things is not like the other...

The trends below bear watching as they served as important leading indicator of things to come in 2008.