scriabinop23's blog

Netflix isn't as expensive as it appears.  Be cautious getting caught up in the latest fear frenzy over net neutrality.

A historic look at gold to S&P correlations.

Everyone is buying gold, right? That's why the price is so high, right?

Just an update for those interested to see the change in market expectations of Fed Funds rates implied by treasury spots and forwards Pre-QE2 versus Post-QE2.

1.4 million homes need to be taken off the market for at least 5 more years to resolve housing's near term oversupply.

Today's big news item is home sales volume falls 27%. This is not news, and just tells us what we already know about housing loan demand.

Forward treasury rates, which are very close Fed Fund rate expectations, can be extracted from the treasury curve. If the treasury market is smart money, it's worth listening.

Since everyone is expecting it, maybe it won't happen?

25 basis point move on the Fed Discount Rate = Discipline, right? In the meanwhile, the Treasury is planning on running an epic fundraiser next week, of $180 Billion dollars. I'm afraid equities won't fall more than a few points, so how much fear bid can we have?

A strong RMB will unleash a world of change, and much for the positive that many are underestimating.

I'm following chatter of media and friends about the imminent doom that may come from Fed Funds rates increases, and that the market perceives a higher chance that the Fed pull away from zero interest rate policy soon. First, 2 Fed Funds charts showing no evidence the market perceives a risk that the Fed changes its policy near term. In fact, quite the opposite, bets are being put on that support extension of zero interest rates. The past 2 weeks have most definitely seen increased expectations for lengthening of current policy.

Buy a contango and high cost-of-carry burdened asset versus a stream of perpetual earnings? What planet am I from?

Graphs of rolling correlations between a pick of a few instruments.