asiablues's blog

Commodity trading and hedging recommendations dated July 15 by Goldman Sachs.

The story of a 15% price swing in ATP Oil and Gas's (ATPG) stocks due to a $450-million math error by a JP Morgan (JPM) analyst probably has prompted some to question the value and validity of analysts' forecasts. A study by McKinsey Quarterly published in April should provide some insight.

Just when BP finally seems to have got a handle on the Macondo well with the successful containment cap, multiple explosion and oil spill are taking place--halfway around the globe--in China.

In his op-ed dated June 30, Paul Krugman declares Iceland as a "post-crisis miracle". That is totally screaming for a rebuff considering even Greece vowed not to be the next Iceland.

It's official. Illinois, the fifth most populous state in the U.S., has overtaken Iceland in the default risk category. Will other U.S. states follow?

A Chinese credit rating agency downgraded the U.S. sovereign debt rating to AA with a negative outlook, along with other major Western nations, while slamming its Western counterparts.

The decline of China copper imports in recent months has caused a lot of distress among traders. Much of the focus has been on copper's eventual crash by China's property chock. However, China's property market is not the only game in copper town.

The world’s largest oil skimmer vessel arrived in the Gulf and has docked in Louisiana since June 30 awaiting U.S. official review and approval.
In addition to EPA's blessing, the Taiwanese-flagged vessel could have another hurdle. It may need a waiver of the Jones Act from the Administration.

Sentiment in the crude oil market has been quite pessimistic lately with NYMEX front month dropping 8% in one week to $72/b. However, over the coming months, oil price should push higher reflecting the changing global demand/supply pattern resulted from some new development in the sector.

Paul Krugman, obviously in total distress over the G20 deficit cut pact, sees a 3rd depression coming to America. Meanwhile, Dr. Doom--Nouriel Roubini--sees a slowdown rather than a double-dip recession in the U.S., and Harvard University professor Niall Ferguson agrees.

United States Oil Fund (USO) was a big mover on Friday jumping 3.69% outperforming other ETFs. Some of the sharp move could be attributed to crude oil and the Dollar. However, this move on crude, the dollar and USO on a typical light trading day caught some traders off guard.

On Sunday, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) has ruled out the one-off revaluation that US politicians had sought. For now, analysts still expect the yuan to slowly rise. Meanwhile, the decision by China should not have come as a surprise as there are several major risks should China implement a faster yuan move as favored by many.

Some additional info came forward since I last quoted a Belgian newspaper that the Jones Act may have caused a delay in the oil spill rescue by forbidding foreign vessels and personnel to work in the U.S. Gulf.
As it has turned out, the Belgian companies shouldn't feel too bad, the U.S. also turned down an official offer by the Dutch government as well.

Four investment strategies for the potential margin squeeze and drag on stock prices coming from companies unable to pass through the cost increase from the raw material side.

The crisis in Europe is causing concerns about deflation in the U.S. and other developed economies. However, looking further up the supply chain, an entirely different picture emerges.