Fibozachi's blog

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Weekly Outlook: S&P 500, US Dollar & Crude Oil





[1] The S&P 500 meets key trendline resistance on day 55 of a Fibonacci time cycle as exponential moving averages cluster ... [2] daily, weekly and monthly support / resistance levels for the US Dollar ... [3] Crude Oil futures trace out a tricky wedge formation

 
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End of the Bull: Primary Trend Shifts as Markets Shatter





Tuesday's relentless sell-off across US equity markets marked an undeniable end to the continuous series of higher lows that had been intact since July 2009; closing below 1,044.50 on the S&P 500 Cash, bulltards can no longer claim that the primary trend of equities remains bullish. With ZMH the only S&P 500 issue closing higher, could GETCO be anticipating a large order from Mr. Market for a new hip? Joking aside, what can we expect after such an all-encompassing technical rout?

 
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Lowest NYSE Tick of the Millenium: Market Internals Set Records on Largest Intra-Day Point Crash of All-Time





Six unique looks at yesterday's record breaking S&P 500 futures plunge alongside NYSE market internals with a few of our favorite tools ... the lowest NYSE Tick of the millenium, skyscraper sized daily & 1-minute down volume, ES 1-minute, ES Momentum Bars with ranges of 1 & 5

 
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Fibozachi Forecast: Week of May 3rd





Weekly technical profiles of Ashford (AHT), Ares Capital (ARCC), Alleghany (AYE), CF Industries (CF), Cummins (CMI), Complete Production Services (CPX), Estee Lauder (EL), National Bank of Greece (NBG) & QQQQ UltraShort (QID) with explicit trade setups

 
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Fibozachi Forecast: Week of April 26th





Weekly technical profiles of Gamestop (GME), Waters (WAT), Liberty Media (LINTA), JetBlue (JBLU), Radioshack (RSH), Exelon (EXC), Monsanto (MON), H&R Block (HRB) & China North East Petroleum (NEP) with explicit trade setups

 
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Fibozachi Forecast: Week of April 19





Weekly technical profiles of WYNN, WFR, LTD, HOT, CLF, VRTX, SPWRA, OREX & BGZ with explicit trade setups

 
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Fibozachi Forecast: Week of April 12th





With an initial bailout of Greece 'out of the way', many market pundits will proudly proclaim the bear market slain. An initial pop monday morning will likely stoke fears of "missing the next leg up." Friday's end-of-day buying surge into the close raises the odds that the market begins the week with strength, but the real test will come when the S&P 500 cash (INX) tests 1,200 and the DJIA (INDU) 11,000. The US Dollar (DXY) plotted a daily FNH (failed new high) this past Thursday at 81.91 before rolling over. Barring a 3-day reversal pattern back up above 81.6, Uncle Buck will likely digest his gains into mid-May after having rallied for four months straight. Ten explicit stock trade setups for GNW, LNC, PFG, RDC, IBB, EMR, HST, AONE, SKYW & APWR.

 
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Fibozachi Forecast: Week of April 5th





Last week, one of our 3 bullish candidates, DNR, was the 2nd greatest gainer (+11.2%) across the S&P 500. For this week, our scans say energy complex up, consumer discretionary down. The energy patch, utilities included, appears primed to pump higher. Weekly charts with explicit trade setups ~ DELL, NKE, PCLN, F, BIG, HD, HAS, MAT, UNG, CNX, AES, FE, MFE & QID.

 
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Boeing & Continental: In the Event of an Emergency Landing ....





One of our daily scans returned an oddball pattern at the end of last week that is extremely rare and extremely interesting from a technical perspective; 4 consecutive "filled white" candles. The culprit: none other than Boeing, the big BA, who just yesterday completed an "ultimate-load wing up-bending test on the 787 Dreamliner" with "positive initial results." Though analysis of the data for the long-delayed Dreamliner will take several weeks to sift through, we took a few snapshots and present a technical profile for the big BA and Continental Airlines (CAL), which stood out as another utterly fugly issue ripe for reversal.

 
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NYSE Down Volume Doubles in the Last 30 Minutes





Despite the fact that a high was established for most major markets at precisely 12:48 (EST), the real fireworks didn't occur until 15:28 (3:28 EST), where Volume of NYSE Declining Issues proceeded to more than double its daily tally in the session's final half-hour ... an extremely rare and impressive feat. This intense EOD sell-off tops any form of bearish activity in recent weeks' memory. A technical look under the hood of the NYSE Composite, NYSE VOLD (Up Volume / Down Volume Difference) and 7 Primary US Equity Markets with one of our proprietary Advance/Decline indicators.

 
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Ominous Candlestick Patterns Register Across US Equity Markets





The S&P 500, DJIA and NASDAQ Cash Indexes each registered bearish daily candlestick patterns on Thursday's close. Interestingly, the three primary US equity markets registered unique candlestick patterns in the form of a Shooting Star on the S&P 500, a Gravestone Doji on the DJIA and a Bearish Engulfing on the NASDAQ. Charts of the Dow, S&P 500, NASDAQ, VIX, BKX & SKF.

 
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Narrowest S&P 500 Range in 2-3 Years: Fibonacci Time Cycles & Volume Analysis





High-Low range comparison, Fibo time cycles & volume analysis charts of the S&P 500, ES & SPY. A bottom-line market outlook for prop traders, portfolio managers, market makers & individual investors. At day's end, if you are still trying to chase the Jones' performance off March '09 lows, what the hell else is keeping you invested in this Russian roulette equity crap-shoot? Please, please don't "invest" like Buffett, but do heed the gist of his approach to selectivity (shared in 1999), which essentially posits that ...

 
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S&P 500 Futures Update





ESH10 55-minute, 144-minute, 28657-Tick, Daily & continuous contract Weekly

 
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Ideal Trade Setup - El Paso (EP) Daily Exhaustion - Candlesticks & Volatility





Today's perfect doji on the daily chart of El Paso (EP) illustrates a specific type of trade setup that we at Fibozachi scan for. The tenor of 'this' price action is symptomatic of short-term exhaustion, typically resulting in an immediate correction over the next few sessions (1-3). On this expected setup the pre-defined (anticipated) risk/reward ratio is over 4:1 ... which means that one need be 'correct' c. 25% of the time to break-even (save commissions + slippage). Trading is nothing if not a probabilistic endeavor and we like those odds.

 
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Unique Perspective of Futures: Kase Bars and Fibonacci Moving Averages





5 charts of S&P 500 Futures (ES E-mini) ... [1] Kase Bar 3 Point Range ... [2] Kase Bar 8 Point Range ... [3] Daily, 610 Simple Moving Average (SMA) ... [4] Monthly, Simple Moving Averages (SMA) ... [5] Monthly, Exponential Moving Averages (EMA)

 
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