madhedgefundtrader's blog

The outlook for the US, with its still miserable 3.9% savings rate, does not look great. Countries with low savings rates historically suffer from weak economies and poor stock markets, because of a shortage of available capital. China, India, and Turkey look much better. (SPX), (FXI), (TUR), (PIN)

Want to invest in an extremely well managed country with almost no debt, budget surpluses, an appreciating currency, and the price for its dominant export commodity going through the roof? Then Chile is the place for you! (EWC), (SQM).

A geopolitical analyst’s view of the future. The Islamic assault on the West is failing. Chronic resource shortages could cause the Middle Kingdom to break up. Japan may invade China as early as 2030. The next Pearl Harbor could come from the moon. The militarization of space. The big challenge towards the end of the 21st century will be the emergence of a Hispanic nation in the US Southwest. An exclusive Interview with Dr. George Friedman of Stratfor on Hedge Fund Radio. (FXI), (RSX), (EWJ), (TUR), (EPOL)

Retail investors are getting fleeced when playing the agricultural and commodities ETF’s. A harsh lesson about contangos. An entire sub industry of hedge funds has arisen to take advantage of this spread, at the expense of the ETF investor. Morgan Stanley is now chartering more tankers to take delivery of crude than Chevron. Gaming the published “roll dates.”

Is the first collapse in history of a bond market in a non-inflationary environment coming? At some point, the world runs out of buyers. If short interest rates double from the current levels, so does America’s debt service, from the current 11% to 22% of the budget, possibly as early as 2014. (TBT), (TMV).

Turkey is among a handful of emerging nations on the cusp of joining the economic big league. How painful economic reform measures and banking controls can work. Foreign multinationals are pouring in. Suddenly, being shut out of the EC doesn’t look half bad. Does its flexing of new diplomatic muscle have a pronounced Islamic, anti American bent? (TUR), (TKC).

Singapore has won the sweepstakes to become the world’s fastest growing economy. A white hot first half 18.1% GDP growth rate. The financial sector is booming, thanks to an explosion of newly minted Chinese billionaires. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley scrambling to add local staff. Time to bury old grudges? (EWS).

You may have heard from the media lately that President Obama hates business, despises businessmen, and is derailing the economic recovery with his anti business policies. A close examination of the hard data delivers a different conclusion. Is Obama actually a closet pro-business president?

In the new deflation, the value of our income falls, while the prices of things we need to buy are going through the roof. Burning our candles at both ends. Rampant wage deflation means that recent graduates have a grim choice between taking a poorly paid job, or no job at all.

Don’t missing the biggest economic opportunity of our lifetime. Quality growth Chinese stocks can be bought for price earnings multiples at 4-5 times, compared to an average 13 multiple for the S&P 500. You are already investing indirectly in the Middle Kingdom whether you realize it or not. Rising share prices fueled by the steroids of an appreciating Yuan can create a “J” curve effect for profits . An exclusive Interview with Jim Trippon of the China Stock Digest on Hedge Fund Radio.

This is turning into a year when the world’s least liquid, most untradeable countries offering minimal amounts of public information and disclosure, are bringing in the best returns, shutting most of us out. The mainstream BRIC countries are becoming increasingly crowded. “Frontier” or “pre-emerging” markets are the place to be.

The Baltic Dry Index is shouting loud and clear for a double dip in the world economy. International container shipping rates point to a global economic recovery centered in Asia, and trickling down to the U.S. and Europe. Who to Believe? Open the envelope, please!

Tempt me all you want, you seductive vixen. A weak summer rally in a bear market, something to be avoided like the clap. Change your slumming ways, and I might take a second look. A surreptitious visit to the local free clinic might help too.

Will there be an overshoot to the all time high of ¥79.5? Looking at the fundamentals, you would not pick Japan to possess one of the world’s most virile currencies. The reason is simple: the fundamentals are so poor, that no one owns the yen, and therefore, can’t sell it. Central bank holdings of the Japanese currency have been plummeting for years. Japan’s notoriously anemic long term growth rate of a minuscule 1% hasn’t exactly seduced managers to pack their portfolio with yen assets. (FXY), (YCS).

Is gold really worth $5,000, $10,000, or even $50,000 an ounce?