AVFMS's blog
03 Dec 2012 – “ Out Of Touch ” (Hall & Oates, 1984)
Submitted by AVFMS on 12/03/2012 11:54 -0500Fiscal Cliff Discussion Risk Event still very much alive. Spain maths on budget. Italian maths, French… Bah… Still feels like things are a bit out of touch with reality here (equities vs. bonds). And that Greek buy-back looks really, really generous. Outwordly. Then again, best way to get rid of private ownership. After the OMT, the OPM… Obviously, other people’s money. PMI paint a slightly less bleak picture, but on rock bottom levels.
"Out Of Touch" (Bunds 1,41% +3; Spain 5,24% -6; Stoxx 2580 unch; EUR 1,306 +50)
Shuffle Rewind 26-30 Nov " Somewhere Over The Rainbow " ("IZ" Kamakawiwo?ole, 1993)
Submitted by AVFMS on 12/01/2012 07:59 -0500Hey, this was cuddle time-week! A big Hug for everyone: Bonds, Equities, Periphery, ah, Periphery bonds! Greece…
As Super Mario said himself on Friday, albeit in a different context: “We were living in a Fairy World”. Cute way of spelling it out.
Fairies, rainbows, wonderful world… Let’s put IZ on the case!
"Somewhere Over The Rainbow" (Bunds 1,38% -6; Spain 5,30% -30; Stoxx 2580 +1,1%; EUR 1,301 +50)
30 Nov 2012 – “ What's Up? ” (4 Non Blondes, 1992)
Submitted by AVFMS on 11/30/2012 12:01 -0500Europe rather direction-less on its own. Equities still rather firmer than not; with Bonds just the same. Macro data generally rather bleak, although expectations have been put so low lately that anything about palatable will do. Peeking over the Pond to see whether Fiscal Cliff discussions could scuttle things. Here late valuations are such that numbers should be really good to get things going. So: Drifting. Chatting. Checking.
"What's Up?" (Bunds 1,38% +1; Spain 5,3% -2; Stoxx 2580 unch; EUR 1,301 +30)
29 Nov 2012 – “ Sea of Love ” (The Honeydrippers, 1984)
Submitted by AVFMS on 11/29/2012 12:05 -0500Looks like yesterday put into practice: Let’s thank everyone to turn around markets, when they sink. Nothing to break the barn stomp in Periphery bonds (but themselves). Italy brilliantly stuffed its primary dealer at a 2-year low. Core EGBs holding quite steady, given ROn in Risk and Periphery. Strong US GDP revision – but, as expected anyway. Given the actual level in Risk, good numbers are seen as given. Nothing weak, no more, never. Swimming in a Sea of (Risk) Love. Watch the Event / Headline risk on FC (& Greece. The math still seems quite odd…). Hard Periphery (especially Spain) slap-back in the afternoon, though.
"Sea Of Love" (Bunds 1,37% unch; Spain 5,32% +1; Stoxx 2579 +1,3%; EUR 1,298 +50)
28 Nov 2012 – “ I Thank You ” (ZZ Top, 1979)
Submitted by AVFMS on 11/28/2012 12:00 -0500Once more, not much own stuff to chew on Europe’s own. Drifting. EGBs very strong on (relative) equity weakness. Periphery starting to glow like the ZZ Top Eliminator. In absence of any strong lead, need to start thanking everyone for input and support (Mario, Ben, Angie, Chrissie… Anyone working on the Fiscal Cliff. Mariano & Mario. Wolfie...). New paradigm put into practice: nothing will ever be weak again, nothing. And watch out for FC Ping-Pong! And I Thank You!
"I Thank You" (Bunds 1,37% -6; Spain 5,31% -20; Stoxx 2547 +0,4%; EUR 1,293 unch)
27 Nov 2012 – “ You Ain’t Seen Nothin' Yet ” (Bachman-Turner Overdrive, 1974)
Submitted by AVFMS on 11/27/2012 12:17 -0500Ok. It’s not that the Greek deal is nothing. But then again, third strike. Eventually expected, or at least hoped for. Hence, lack of concrete follow-through. So, now it’s there. And now what? You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet? What is there to see??? Pitch the markets some input, something concrete, something to feed off, something to see!
"You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet" (Bunds 1,43% +2; Spain 5,51% -9; Stoxx 2538 -0,2%; EUR 1,293 -30)
26 Nov 2012 – “ Sailing ” (Rod Stewart, 1975)
Submitted by AVFMS on 11/26/2012 12:01 -0500Hard pressed to find anything remotely exciting today. Equities losing a little shine, but understandable given last week’s 5% rush (and 14% tightening in Credit). Bonds stuck in range. Fiscal Cliff hailing back (in yet rather timid manner, though). Waiting on Greek rescue revelations. Yawn!
"Sailing" (Bunds 1,41% -3; Spain 5,6% unch; Stoxx 2542 -0,4%; EUR 1,296 unch)
Shuffle Rewind 19-23 Nov " The Only Way Is Up " (Yazz, 1988)
Submitted by AVFMS on 11/24/2012 08:38 -0500If we lacked Direction last week, this week was a strong case for “The Only Way is Up!” with Risk assets soaring. Quite a cleansing process over the last weeks: weak longs stopped out, weak shorts stopped out. Volatility crushed nevertheless.
"The Only Way Is Up" (Bunds 1,44% +12; Spain 5,60% -26; Stoxx 2552 +4,8%; EUR 1,296 +260)
23 Nov 2012 – “ Fly Like an Eagle ” (Steve Miller Band, 1976)
Submitted by AVFMS on 11/23/2012 12:03 -0500Yet another light ROn close of the day, crowning a ROn of a week. Worries put aside on Greece (and Cyprus) and the Periphery (and the Fiscal Cliff). Sentiment data all for the better. Last week’s nightmare obviously obliterated. It’s not like things have really changed, though.
Fly like an Eagle – for those “Free Bird” of yesterday that made it through the night…
"Fly Like An Eagle" (Bunds 1,44% +1; Spain 5,6% -4; Stoxx 2552 +0,7%; EUR 1,296 +80)
22 Nov 2012 – “ Free Bird ” (Lynyrd Skynyrd, 1974)
Submitted by AVFMS on 11/22/2012 12:04 -0500US closing fine, Asia closing fine. PMIs a tick better than expected. Fine. Spanish auction fine. Greek bonds fine. All fine. Slight Risk On. Fine. Fine, fine, fine… All is good. Free that Bird – or Eat it!
"Free Bird" (Bunds 1,43% +0; Spain 5,64% -6; Stoxx 2534 +0,6%; EUR 1,288 +60)
21 Nov 2012 – “ Rise To The Occasion” (Climie Fisher, 1987)
Submitted by AVFMS on 11/21/2012 11:56 -0500Greece? Sorry, what’s with Greece? French downgrade. Unexpected, but then again not that much. So what? Fiscal Cliff? As no one speaks about it, it can be ignored. Risk? If it doesn’t fall, it has to rise.
"Rise To The Occasion" (Bunds 1,43% +2; Spain 5,7% -9; Stoxx 2518 +0,4%; EUR 1,282 +10)
20 Nov 2012 – “A Tout Le Monde (Set Me Free) ” (Megadeth, 1995)
Submitted by AVFMS on 11/20/2012 11:57 -0500Uh… Very uncomfortable French downgrade. Not surprising per se, but uncomfortable. Ask the EFSF… Brings back the question of “Who’s Next”? European Risk (Equities & Credit), however, oblivious and taking rising yields as a sure sign for Risk On. I’d see the risk of France (and everyone else) starting to count contingent costs.
"A Tout Le Monde" (Bunds 1,41% +6; Spain 5,79% -9; Stoxx 2509 +0,6%; EUR 1,281 unch)
19 Nov 2012 – “ Rip And Tear” (L.A. Guns, 1989)
Submitted by AVFMS on 11/19/2012 12:02 -0500European equities ripping and squeezed after Friday’s dismal close. Credit the same and, as more often than not lately, overdoing the equity move. EGBs rather muted with the Core pretty much where it stood throughout last week – with exception of Friday afternoon. Spain back on the radar. Europe still under US influence. Huge relief. From what and why exactly still needs to be seen. In the meantime: Rip & Tear!
"Rip And Tear" (Bunds 1,35% +3; Spain 5,88% +2; Stoxx 2495 +2,7%; EUR 1,281 +110)
Shuffle Rewind 12-16 Nov " No Direction " (Simply Red, 1985)
Submitted by AVFMS on 11/17/2012 09:00 -0500While the prior week was marked by some kind of awakening, this week was more about finding a direction. Eventually mostly downwards, but always in jumps, marked by tentative rebounds. Europe mostly lost, so unused not to be the focal point anymore, waiting for US input. If it wasn’t for the Fiscal Cliff, and in absence of further news out of the Periphery, we seem to have
"No Direction" (Bunds 1,32% -2; Spain 5,86% +5; Stoxx 2429% -2,1%; EUR 1,27 -10)
16 Nov 2012 – “That's the Way (I Like It) ” (KC and the Sunshine Band, 1975)
Submitted by AVFMS on 11/16/2012 12:06 -0500Europe mostly boring. Several inconclusive downside tests in European equities. Static bonds, unwilling to tighten further. More US equity weakness, more downside. Way is shown by US equity dump. Periphery? What Periphery? What problem? Credit, EGBs, most commodities just watching. Dismal close.
"That's the Way (I Like It)" (Bunds 1,32% -2; Spain 5,86% -3; Stoxx 2429 -1,2%; EUR 1,27 -90)
