EconMatters's blog

Marc Faber on U.S. downgrade, market direction, plus some thoughts from us.

Washington probably had it coming by handing S&P one necessary ammunition--the Political Soap of the American debt ceiling debate, but on the other hand, I would not give that much credence to S&P’s claim that “it's our duty to make that call" either.

It is premature to say something like "If U.S. debt is downgraded, will anyone care?" thinking the markets should have priced all this in, because there will be consequences to pay.  

Regardless whether one or more of the Big 3 agencies would deal a credit downgrade to the U.S., the CDS market has already spoken.

Essentially, growth is not the problem for China, but nor is it the solution.

Sen. John kerry comments that the Chinese "are laughing all the way to the bank" on a downgrading of US Treasury securities.  China owns about 8% of the U.S. debt, so does that mean the rest of 92% debtors, including the U.S. taxpayer, would also be "laughing"?  

Some have said that the Fed and Washington want the value of the dollar to plummet so the nation’s debt may be repaid in cheaper dollars. Perhaps all this debt ceiling mess is just part of the grand design?  If so, then pretty soon, these Art of Defaced US Dollars would be worth more than the real dollar.

The The more disturbing jobs numbers are coming from the long-term unemployment.  A year after the official end of the recession, more than two million Americans have been out of work for 99 weeks or longer.  Some call the long-term unemployment the newest form of workforce discrimination as employers tend to favor job candidates already have a job.  

Fed Chairman Bernanke told Congress the recent rise in inflation appears likely to be transitory, where in fact the only 'transitory' effects are the QE3 euphoria and the once prevalent "deflation alarm".

Italy has now become the new victim as worries of a debt crisis contagion, as it is euro zone's third largest economy and the next weak link in the region. Italy's predicament could also be partly attributed to the political power struggle. If the Italian sings a good political opera, the United States gets an Emmy for its political soap.

China's inflation battle would be a vertical battle climb for Beijing, and is nowhere close to "have peaked in June" as many analysts have predicted.

According to Oxford Analytica, there are fifteen "Global Stress Points" ranging from medium to extreme high impact to the entire world. And hate to disappoint China Bears, it seems whatever problems China has, it is not the one that'll tank the world like the Dollar and Euro.

There are more than 1 million college-educated "ants" in China making an average $286 a month. While China seems to have an over-supply of college grads, the United States, on the other hand, is not producing enough college-educated workers, at least according to a new study released by Georgetown University.

The CPC (Communist Party of China) was founded on July 1, 1921 in Shanghai with a large working class support base. Throughout the past 60 years or so, China has never deviate much from socialism. With rapid growth, cracks are starting to surface.

Since the SPR is sold essentially at the bottom of the market, it mostly likely will cost a lot more to replenish. The most ironic thing is that while trying to intervene the oil market, the U.S. government,and taxpayers could end up losing money both ways--on the sale and on the buy-back.