Expected Returns's blog
Gold's Unstoppable Rise
Submitted by Expected Returns on 12/17/2010 14:32 -0500The fundamentals behind the gold trade are generally understood on a very superficial level. $3000 gold will have very little to do with inflation. It will have little to do with the economy being "bad"- we have had recessions with collapsing gold prices. In many ways we are talking about something far more menacing. We are talking about capital running for cover. We are talking about unprecedented skepticism towards government. We are talking about the long overdue self-destruction of a system that magnifies the folly of man.
Economic Recovery Nonsense Continues
Submitted by Expected Returns on 12/14/2010 16:00 -0500For the duration of what I estimate to be a 10 year economic slowdown (we are entering year 4), you will hear countless experts proclaim that the economy has recovered. Economic recovery evangelists were temporarily silenced earlier in the year, but they have now come out in force.In today's FOMC statement, the Fed actually had the chutzpah to say: "The economic recovery is continuing, though at a rate that has been insufficient to bring down unemployment".
The Deflation Bogeyman
Submitted by Expected Returns on 08/20/2010 14:21 -0500Based on the comments and emails I'm receiving lately, it appears more and more people are hopping on the deflation bandwagon. These correspondences have exposed to me an obvious misunderstanding of basic facts. While I suppose I am an "inflationist", I'm the first to admit that deflationists have some valid arguments to support their claims. But at the end of the day, their arguments are flawed; I just don't see deflation as a realistic threat moving forward.
Rethinking the Inflation vs Deflation Debate
Submitted by Expected Returns on 06/03/2010 13:37 -0500The inflation vs deflation debate is one fraught with biases, misnomers, and rigid positions. What I've noticed is that both inflationists and deflationists selectively handpick data to support their respective positions. This is fine and dandy if your goal is to win an argument; but if you want to win as an investor, you must unemotionally interpret data.
The U.S. Government Bond Bubble
Submitted by Expected Returns on 05/28/2010 15:28 -0500What follows will read like an indictment on our entire economic system. But underlying my (relatively mild) harangue is an observation that people are ignoring the most obvious bubble out there; that is, the bubble in U.S. government bonds. The following is my attempt to figure out why.
Gold Bubble?: A Brief Look at Historical Bubbles
Submitted by Expected Returns on 05/18/2010 12:06 -0500As gold climbs to new highs, you will get a real-time lesson in why most people make very little if any money investing. Gold is the most obvious bull market of our generation and the public still refuses to participate in force because of nominal prices. This is baffling, but I'm not complaining since this widespread inability to pull the trigger on gold has allowed me to accumulate at relatively cheap prices.
Record Gold: The Real Journey Begins
Submitted by Expected Returns on 05/11/2010 21:46 -0500Those of you who have been following this blog from its humble beginnings know that I have been consistently bullish on the long-term prospects of gold, and consistently bearish on the long-term prospects for the American economy. With gold sitting at $1,232 dollars and sovereign debt concerns entering the system, my thesis is unfolding before our very eyes. This is very unfortunate. I would much rather be wrong and lose money investing than be right when it entails hard times for Americans.
Is the Unemployment Rate Really 13.2%?
Submitted by Expected Returns on 01/08/2010 12:19 -0500This is a very weak unemployment report as every important qualitive measure of unemployment showed further weakness. There is no recovery based on the data. From the Bureau of Labor Statistics:
Nonfarm payroll employment edged down (-85,000) in December, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 10.0 percent, the U.S.
The Case for Depression: Dollar Collapse
Submitted by Expected Returns on 11/27/2009 15:59 -0500The history of the dollar is one marked by a dominance unrivaled in history. Following the Bretton Woods Agreement of 1944, which established the dollar as the global reserve currency, Americans have enjoyed an era of unprecedented wealth and prominence.
