GoldCore's blog

“Indians want to maintain a store of value, so they go to gold.”

‘Gold is the last man standing as rupee fuels inflation’ was not published on Bloomberg.com but the story was published on Live Mint.

 What is happening in India is a prelude to what will be seen in other economies in the coming years as currencies depreciate.

One of the most published academics on gold in the world is Dr Brian Lucey of Trinity College Dublin (TCD) and he and another academic who has frequently covered the gold market, Dr Constantin Gurdgiev have just this week had an excellent research paper on gold published.

They have researched the gold market, along with Dr Cetin Ciner of the University of North Carolina and their paper,  ‘Hedges and safe havens: An examination of stocks, bonds, gold, oil and exchange rates’ finds that gold is a hedge against US dollar and British pound risk due to “its monetary asset role.”

Premiums on the Shanghai Gold Exchange rose from $21 yesterday to $22.40 (0800 GMT) over London spot showing robust physical demand in China. Demand from the over 2 billion people, rich and poor,  in China and India alone this year alone is set to be 1,000 metric tonnes which is worth over $87 billion or roughly what the Federal Reserve is printing every single month.

India has no proposal to lease gold bought from the IMF according to India’s Economic Affairs Secretary, Arvind Mayaram. His comments came in a text message.

The influential in India, Hindu Business Line newspaper, had reported earlier that the government will consider leasing out 200 tons of gold bought from IMF in 2009, citing finance ministry officials it didn’t identify.

With strains in the  LBMA gold market, further pressure may be being applied to India to now help with supply after their recent draconian attempted measures to restrict demand.

Liquidated ETF gold holdings are being shipped from the U.K to Switzerland for refining into smaller one kilogramme gold bars, Australian bank Macquarie wrote in a note yesterday. These were then sent to Asia and bought by Asian investors. The note  confirmed, what has been known anecdotally for some weeks.

Gold analysts are the most bullish in five months according to Bloomberg. Thirteen analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect prices to rise next week, four were bearish and five neutral, the highest proportion of bulls since March 8. 

The latest World Gold Council Gold Demand Trends report, which covers the period April-June 2013, confirms again how recent falls in the gold price were due to speculators selling paper gold rather than a decline in actual demand for physical gold.

It highlights, once again, that the price falls have generated significant increases in demand, most notably from store of wealth, jewelry, bullion coin and bar buyers  in Turkey, Dubai and the Middle East, Vietnam, India, China and the rest of Asia.

Meanwhile speculators, primarily banks and hedge funds, exited their positions in the gold ETFs and futures markets. This led to liquidations of just 402 tonnes of ETF gold worth only $18.3 billion.

South Africa supplies almost 60% of the world's platinum (including secondary supply) and 30% of the world's palladium (including secondary supply).

According to Johnson Matthey, platinum production fell almost 16% in 2012 while palladium production declined 10% last year alone.

With prices well below their recent highs, looming production cuts will leave markets tight supporting prices and likely leading to higher prices.

A record deficit in platinum supplies is set to push prices higher and demand is boosted by the new exchange traded fund (ETF).

Sales of silver coins by the U.S. Mint have set a record high in the first half of 2013 seeing the best start to a year ever. 

Year to date Silver Eagle sales are at 30.3 million, a record pace that was supported by soaring July sales. Silver Eagle sales had a record year in 2011. That year, it took until September 21, 2011, to reach above 30 million in sales for the year.

Therefore, 2013 looks set to be a record year for Silver Eagle sales.

Evans, who is one of twelve Federal Reserve Presidents, believes that the economic indicators “are actually really better” and this signals a new, more firmer indication from the Fed that tapering is going to happen.

If the Fed drop the ball and move too quickly they could endanger the fragile economic recovery, on the other hand if they move too slowly they could stoke inflation in the near term. 

The LBMA clearing statistics therefore essentially represent huge daily trading through unallocated accounts, most of which is classified as spot delivery, but which is backed by very small physical metal foundations. The clearing statistics while interesting, need to be made more transparent and granular beyond the headline data. Otherwise they tend to obscure rather than illuminate.

There is no doubting the massive reserves of fossil fuels still lying close to or just beneath the earth’s surface. One of the key points made in the first edition of Insight back in February is that we must factor in the cost of processing those fossil fuels before they can enter the energy market. The future of energy production is as much as about the economic cost of processing those supplies as it is about the extraction. 

Lump this into the mix with the challenges around energy, the instability of the global banking system, the high unemployment rates, particularly among the youth and interest rates at unsustainably low levels, it would be reckless to report that the world economy is either on the brink of or on the road to recovery. Gold is a finite resource, the Chinese central bank continues to acquire gold quietly and without declaring.....for now.

It’s worth repeating: In the shadow of this game, gold looks like a solid investment.

What is at stake is illustrated by the difference in oil consumption between Asia and the West. The former, exemplified by China and India, is still increasing its consumption growth. The latter, basically the OECD, has been using less oil each year since the crisis began in 2008. This is unsustainable. The OECD’s deepening recession is evidenced by its falling oil use while the fragility of the export dependent and imported energy dependent East’s growth prospects suggests that its real growth rate is about to peak or already has.