Marc To Market's blog

Overview of the dollar's outlook against the major currencies, without a preconceived notion that the US is in some kind of terminal decline.  

Is it all about expectations about tapering, again?

Technical outlook for the several of the most actively traded currencies.  

A look at the technical condition of the fx market, interest rate differentials, central bank developments and the data due out in the week ahead.  

The recent strength of the euro and sterling seemed to evaporate, while the yen and dollar-bloc currencies recovered.  Is this a major trend change or was it simply reflecting some position adjustment in a thin market? 

Dolllar weakess is largely concentrated against euro and sterling and those handful of currencies that move in their orbits.  The US dollar is firm against the dollar-bloc and yen and many emerging market currencies.  

A look ahead into 2014.  

A little followed development is revealing about the emerging financial architecture and the role of the dollar.  A dispassionate discussion.  

Global monetary conditions remain easy and despite the Fed's decision to taper, peak monetary accommodation is not here yet.  

FX outlook through the end of the year...

What do the social classes owe each other?  Do people on public assistance really take advantage of the system ? 

The rise of the yuan has been exaggerated.  Strip out data involving Hong Kong and the claims of trade flows that are concealed capital flows and one might get a more accurate picture. 

Key events in the week ahead with implications for early 2014.

Overview of market positioning and technical indicators on the eve of the FOMC meeting.  

Japanese capital outflows have increased in recent months. Data out earlier today shows some country break down and we try to place that in a larger context.