Marc To Market's blog

Even if one correctly predicts what the FOMC does next week, getting the direction right for dollar is a different matter.  The markets are anticipatory in nature and the effect often takes place before the cause.  

A dispassionate discussion of the weekend events and a look at the week ahead.  

Price action in the foreign exchange market in the context of fundamental developments.  Disappointing US jobs data clouds the near-term outlook for the greenback,  

Much data and events next week.  Politics risks trumping economics.  

The Fed is among the only major central banks not meeting next week, yet it is overshadowing the others.  The dollar's tone improved markedly in recent days.  There is still scope for the Fed to disappoint the dollar bulls.  

The Fed's GDP forecasts are still too optimisitc even after the Q2 GDP revisions.  And the core PCE deflator is closer to zero than it is to the Fed's target.  Tapering still a done deal ? 

Dispassionate view that Italy poses the biggest risk for the euro area and it will not wait for the German elections.

Next weeks events placed within the larger context.  

Quick, dispassionate overview of the fx market.

Characterizations of the invesmtent climate.  

Anticipation of Fed tapering is being cited for both dollar gains and dollar losses.  What gives?

Next month promises to be more volatile than this month.  Consensus views are unlikely to be challenged by the data in the week ahead.  

Short-term, dollar risks still appear on the downside, but this appears largely corrective in nature.  Medium-term, a higher dollar still appears to be the most likely scenario.  

A discussion of this week's key events and data within the context of the investment climate characterized by shifting Fed tapering expectations, evidence still pointing to a soft landing of the Chinese economy, a cyclical recovery in Europe and renewed capital outflows from Japan, while foreign investors slow their purchases of Japanese equities.  

Discussion of recent and prospective price action in the foreign exchange market.