Marc To Market's blog

Dis-passionate discussion of next week's events and data, placed within a somewhat larger context.  

A brief discussion of the technical condition of the major currencies going to what is a week packed with fundamental developments.

Surplus capital used to be the understood as the primary challenge, but this fell out of favor.  This essay seeks to return it to the center of the narrative.  

Overview of the investment climate.  

Overview of currency market outlook.  

Some thoughts on why US auto sales are at their strongest pace since prior to the crisis, while EU auto sales are at 20 year lows.

Dispassionate review of some of next weeks important developments.

Bernanke's comments washed out some late dollar longs and they may be reluctant to re-establish ahead of the Chairman's testimony before Congress at the end of next week.  The underlying bullish case for the dollar remains intact.  

A new data base decomposes OECD trade flows to discern the value added actually being done. Bottom line is that when this important economic concept is used, the bilateral US trade deficit with China appears considerably smaller than conventional approaches. And to anticipate potential criticism, it does not mean that one time series is lying...

Bernanke's comments give market cause to re-think its outlook for tapering and eventaul rate hike.  Here's why and what it means.  

Japanese investors are not simply selling foreign assets. They are selling US assets.

This week's events placed in a broader context.  

Brief discussion of the price action that is lifting the dollar at expense of nearly every other currency.  

Focus on US, Europe, Japan

Portgual stuck with austerity even after the orthodoxy changed.  The finance minister resigned and was replaced by someone who promises continuity.  This led to the resignation of the head of the jr coalition partner leader.  Still, snap elections are not the most likely scenario.