Marc To Market's blog

The divergence of a stronger euro and weaker yen has continued and the latest news stream has pushed it further. There are several sub-themes at work as well and they also have been underscored today. These include: 1) German recovery from Q4 contraction, 2) the divergence between German and French economic performance (suggesting a divergence of national interest too?), 3) the decoupling of sterling from the euro orbit, but we suggest here that while the UK economy is without a growth impulse, the market may be exaggerating the weakness, 4) the ECB is less likely to push against the passive tightening of financial conditions when it meets next week, and 5) the Chinese economic data is sufficiently mixed as not to lend the heavy Australian dollar much support. Following the FOMC, the US economic data needs to be well off the consensus to resist the current forces.

There has been a tightening of European financial conditions. Two more pieces of evidence were reported today. This issue may very well overshadow other issues at Draghi's press conference next week. German 2-year rates are moving above the US-- a 30 bp swing since early Dec. Meanwhile, US rates are rising relative to Japan. The dollar-bloc (and sterling) continue to under-perform. We also look at the US economic calendar for the day that features the ADP employment estimate, the first look at Q4 GDP and the conclusion of the FOMC meeting.

There have been some important developments in the interest rate differentials that help explain recent price action in the foreign exchange market. It is not simply rhetoric weighing on the yen, for example. Japanese 2-10 year interest rates remain softer on the year and over the past three months, while monetary conditions have tightening in Europe and US 10-year yields are higher.

An overview of the fundamental determinants of the foreign exchange market in the week ahead. I look beyond the official rhetoric at what is pushing the yen lower. I also discuss the tightening of European monetary condition. In addition, there is a brief discussion of the key US events this week: the FOMC, Q4 GDP estimate, and US jobs report.

Here is a weekly over view of the currency market from a technical perspective.  The divergence between the performance of the dollar against the euro-bloc, with the exception of sterling, and the other major currencies is noteworthy.  In the analysis, I suggest a few opportnities for near-term contrarians.  I fully appreciate that some readers eschew technical analysis and regulate it to the same space as numerology and witchcraft.  Yet, even still, it is useful to recall Keynes' view that the markets are like a beauty contest and the trick is not to pick who one thinks is the most beautiful, but to pick who others will think most beautiful.  Moreover, technicals allow one to quantify how much one is willing to lose in a way that fundamental macro-economic analysis doesn't.  It is a tool then for risk management.  

Three main forces are at work today: 1) The continued decline in the yen--driven by more evidence of deflation and more jawboning. 2) Poor UK data and weak underlying technicals extend sterling's losses. 3) Stronger German ZEW survey and the repayment fo 137.2 bln euros from 278 banks.

Starting tomorrow and every Friday for the next few years, the ECB will report the number of banks and the amount of funds they will repay of the 3-year repo operations conducted in late 2011 and early 2012. For those who do not have the luxury of following these developments closely, I have put together a 10 point cheat sheet.

Currency wars have captured the imagination of many. However, the modern history of the foreign exchange market demonstrates that is has always been an arena in which nation-states compete. Typically central banks want the currency's exchange rate to affirm not contradict monetary policy. The synchronized crisis and easier monetary policy makes it appear that nearly ever one wants a weak currency. Yet most officials are on low rungs of the intervention escalation ladder. Moreover, there is no sign of it spilling over to a trade war. Has any one else noticed that Japan's largest trading partner and regional rival China has been quiet, not joining the the chorus of criticism?

There are two main drivers in the foreign exchange market today: the much anticipated BOJ meeting and the much stronger than expected German ZEW survey. Anticipation of aggressive easing by the BOJ today has kept the yen on the defensive. However, the combination of "sell the rumor and buy the fact" activity and, arguably, some disappointment, saw dollar turned back from the JPY90 level, which it has test during the three prior sessions without a convincing break and fall to near JPY88.35 before finding a bid. Similarly the euro, which had been flirting with the JPY120 area, was sold down to almost JPY117.30 before finding a solid

An overview of the key factors and events that are shaping the investment climate in the week ahead.  It looks at some emerging market developments as well.  These are the main talking points and considerations that ought to be on your radar screen as investors or pundits.  

The US dollar is trading firmly. The official verbal commentary this week by Europe's Juncker and Japan's Amari were more disruptive noise a true signal. These mis-directional cues whipsawed short-term participants and served to obscure what was really happening. One of the most important take aways, it seems, from this week's action is the narrowing of the breadth of the dollar's decline. It is really limited to only the euro...

In this piece, I re-examine what many economists call "financial repression" and I find it to be sorely lacking as a description of what is happening. I also look at a related concern about the loss of central bank independence. Color me skeptical.

After relatively large moves in the foreign exchange market since nearly the start of the year, participants were particularly vulnerable to commentary that encouraged a reversal of trend. Japan's Amari got the ball rolling, suggesting that the yen's decline has been sufficient and that excessive strength had been corrected. This encouraged a bout of short-covering and took some shine off the other major currencies as cross positions were unwound.

Then Juncker's comments hit in the North American afternoon yesterday, claiming that the euro's exchange rate was dangerously high. Again the market's reaction was more about positioning than about the policy signal. Part of the demand, after all, for the euro has been coming from some of the largest asset managers returning to the Spanish and Italian bond markets, believing that the Open Market Transaction scheme is indeed a viable backstop.

Most of the major currencies are consolidating within yesterday's trading ranges. The main feature has been comments from Japan's Minister of Economic Revival that appeared to declare victory in the government's attempt to weaken the yen. News wires quoted him saying that the yen had corrected its excessive rise and was currently in line with fundamentals. This triggered a wave of short covering yen positions, driving the down form around JPY89.60 to near JPY88.60 in initial reaction that lasted about an hour. It has been consolidating since, mostly below JPY88.90. The sharp recovery of the yen was also felt on the crosses, though a more consolidative tone that was seen in the European morning was fading and the currencies moved back toward the lows as North American traders prepared to return to their screens.

The Chairman of China Securities Regulatory Commission (similar to the US SEC) said that China can increase by 10-fold the size of the two main channels by which foreign investors buy mainland financial assets. It can, Guo Shuqing said, increase quotas under the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors and the Renminbi Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors. The latter would make it easier for the yuan in Hong Kong (CNH) to be used to purchase Chinese securities. This hint helped lift China shares by over 3%, their largest gain in a month. The Shanghai Composite's 3% rise brings the gain to 19% off the multi-year low near 1949 (the year of China's Revolution) in early December.