Monetary Metals's blog
Don't trade yesterday’s news. There was backwardation. However, it's a sensitive indicator and you need an updated picture before buying after a sizeable price move.
Consider the sport of betting on the sport of horse racing. It’s actually similar to the analysis of the gold and silver markets. How’s that?
This was a fairly quiet week in the market for the metals. The price action was elsewhere (e.g. equities and currencies).
Gold fundamentals are tight, but not so much in silver. According to popular belief, the prices of the metals are supposed to move together. What happens when a trading thesis is believed by just about everyone?
Both the October and December gold contracts are backwardated, and Feb '16 contract is not far. The gold market is tight. Why?
It began in Dec 2008. To understand it, it is necessary to understand two principles. The first is that gold is money and the dollar is credit (which is currently worth 28.4mg gold). For the second, we emphasize it's not just price, but separate bid and ask prices.
You cannot understand gold if you think it goes up and down, that the dollar is the measure of gold. Gold does not necessarily go up with interest, inflation, or commodities. Indeed, it does not go anywhere. It's the dollar going places (mostly down).
For those who are speculating on the dollar—i.e. most people—there was good news. The dollar rose to 28.3mg gold. It’s a big gain, and welcome news for those who keep all of their eggs in the one dollar basket.
Greece. China. Banking system messes. Central bank printing. And here we are, under $1140. Breakdown?
That cannot be determined from price charts. We want to know the fundamentals of supply and demand. Here's how we measure it.
The Greek default is a forcible contraction of credit, and bound to be negative for the prices of ordinary assets. But something extraordinary happened to silver this week.
On Friday morning, at around midnight PDT, the price of silver had a mini crash, dropping more than 10 cents in one second. This is our forensic analysis.
It’s the start of a new year. The question is whither the prices of gold and silver? This Brief presents our answer.
It’s terrifying how fast the whole Swiss yield curve sank under the waterline of zero. Now even the 15-year bond has negative interest. The franc has reached the end.
The old joke is "In America, you correct newspaper, but in Soviet Union, newspaper corrects you.” Switzerland is now experiencing the bond market equivalent.
There's been a huge price move in oil. The spreads shows a startling picture.