Phoenix Capital Research's blog

Phoenix Capital Research's picture

Just What Has QE Accomplished Since 2009?





At this point, one has to wonder, just what is the point of all the Central Banks’ activities? The QE efforts in the US and Japan (two of the biggest in history) haven’t really generated jobs or GDP growth… so just what ARE they doing?

 
 
Phoenix Capital Research's picture

The Fed Has Set the Stage For Another 2008-Style Disaster





So…the US economy is allegedly in recovery… the financial markets are fixed… and all is well in the world. But the Fed cannot risk raising interest rates to normal levels because Wall Street has over $12 trillion (more like over $100 trillion) in derivatives contracts that could blow up.

 
Phoenix Capital Research's picture

The Total Mispricing of Risk Courtesy of the Fed





These bonds are the benchmarks for “risk” in the financial system. Stocks, corporate bonds, mortgages, auto loans, emerging market stocks… everything you can name are ultimately priced based on their perceived risk relative to the “risk free” rate of lending money to the US for 10 years.

 
 
Phoenix Capital Research's picture

The Coming Tectonic Shift That 99% of Investment Professionals Are Unprepared For





For 40 years, the financial world has experienced a bull market in bonds. What this means is that for 40 years, bond prices have risen while yields fell.  As yields fell, it became easier and easier for investors to borrow money.

 
Phoenix Capital Research's picture

Are Central Banks Out of Options?





So, globally interest rates are at ZERO or even negative and the markets have realized that QE doesn’t do much. What exactly does this leave for Central Banks to do?

 
Phoenix Capital Research's picture

Even The Fed Admits QE Is a Failure





This represents a tectonic shift in the financial markets. It does not mean that Central Banks will never engage in QE again. But it does show that they are increasingly aware that QE is no longer the “be all, end all” for monetary policy.

 
Phoenix Capital Research's picture

Japan Just Proved That Central Bankers Are Out of Ideas...





Japan’s QE was large enough that no one, not even the most stark raving mad Keynesian on the planet, could argue that it wasn’t big enough. Which is why the results are extremely disconcerting for Central Bankers at large.

 
Phoenix Capital Research's picture

The System is Now MORE Leveraged Than It Was in 2007





The Fed managed to pull a rabbit out of a hat last time... by resorting to extraordinary policies. In doing so, it's used up most of its ammo. So there's no telling what will happen if we get another systemic deleveraging again.

 
Phoenix Capital Research's picture

The EU Markets Have Peaked… Is the Next Round of the Crisis Here?





Here we are now, two years later, and the ECB has failed to create the sustainable recovery that it promised. Because of this, in June of 2014, Mario Draghi implemented Negative Interest rate Policies or NIRP and hinted at launching a QE program

 
Phoenix Capital Research's picture

The Financial System is Primed For a Crisis Worse Than 2008





The market is extremely tired and the systemic risks underlying the Financial Crisis are in no way resolved. With investor complacency (as measured by the VIX) at record lows, the Fed withdrawing several of its more significant market props, and low participation coming from the larger institutions, this market is ripe for a serious correction.

 
Phoenix Capital Research's picture

Market Dip… Or the Start of Something Bigger?





The market has been so overbought for so long, that most investors were ignoring the clear warning signs that we were in trouble.

 
 
Phoenix Capital Research's picture

Why the ECB Cannot and Will Not Be Able to Create Growth in Europe





When you are leveraged at these levels, you only need the assets you invest in to fall 4% before you’ve wiped out all of your underlying capital (€26 * 0.04 = €1.04).

 
 
Phoenix Capital Research's picture

The Truth About the Fed’s Relationship With Bubbles





The Fed wants asset bubbles because they hide the rot within the US economy. If the Fed didn’t raise stock or housing prices, people might actually start to wonder… “hey, why is my life getting more and more difficult despite the fact that I’m working all the time?”

 
Phoenix Capital Research's picture

Based on the Non-Massaged Data, the US is Back in Recession





One of the biggest games played by the bean counters in Washington in the US is the overstatement of GDP growth by understating inflation.

 
 
Phoenix Capital Research's picture

There Will Be No Warning When the Next Crisis Hits





Central Banks, Bank CEOs, politicians… all of these people are focused primarily on maintaining CONFIDENCE in the system, NOT on fixing the system’s problems. Indeed, they cannot even openly discuss the system’s problems because it would quickly reveal that they are a primary cause of them.

 
Syndicate content
Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!