Phoenix Capital Research's blog

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Sorry Folks, QE 3 Ain't Coming... Even the Fed Doves Admit It





Folks if you’re buying into the whole QE 3 is coming on June 6th  argument you’re out of your minds. This is an election year. If the Fed announces QE 3 now, Obama is done. Do you really think this is going to happen when even the Fed’s biggest doves are noting that the consequences of QE outweigh the benefits?

 
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Spain Just Gave Us a Glimpse Into the True State of the EU Banking System





 

This is the state of affairs in Europe: bankrupt nations trying to bailout bankrupt banks or looking for bailouts from funds that are backed by other bankrupt nations.What could go wrong?

 
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Europe Is About to Implode... Are You Ready?





We're talking about a banking system that is nearly four times that of the US ($46 trillion vs. $12 trillion) with at least twice the amount of leverage (26 to 1 for the EU vs. 13 to 1 for the US), and a Central Bank that has stuffed its balance sheet with loads of garbage debts, giving it a leverage level of 36 to 1.

 
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Greece Has Proved That the ECB Bailout Scheme is Based On Nothing But Lies and Fraud





 

Put another way, those Greek bondholders who DIDN’T go for the Second Bailout, just got their money back at 100 cents on the Dollar (compared to those who DID go for the Second Bailout and lost 70% of their money). This has shown the ECB and EU bureaucrats to be complete and total liars. It also shows the entire bailout/ austerity measures process to be garbage. 

 
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Here’s the REAL DEAL NO BS Situation with Europe (Warning What Follows is EXTREMELY BAD).





This is the REAL DEAL for Europe. Anyone who has some kind of counter-argument to these points either doesn’t understand the political environment we’ve entered (even Central Banks are fed up with bowing to political pressure from politicians) or is simply hoping that by ignoring these realities they (the realities) will go away.

 
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Greece Could Implode the Second Bailout and the EU by Mid-June





 

In plain terms, by mid-June, Greece could very well be controlled by an anti-austerity, anti-bailout party that wants to completely do away with the second Greek bailout (which means a potential disorderly default). This actually is the best possible outcome for Greece as the alternative is outright anarchy. Remember, Greece has gone through two Governments since its Crisis began: one was the long-standing President, the other was an EU-appointed bureaucrat.

 
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As I've Been Warning Since 2010, the EU is Finished





 

If Greece leaves, Spain or Italy will definitely either default or threaten to leave (they've seen that bailouts in exchange for austerity don't work).

 
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The EU Political Game of Growth Vs Austerity is Akin to Polishing the Brass on the Titanic





The “austerity” and “growth” to which EU leaders refer are simply two sides of the same coin: that of assuming that massive problems can be dealt with superficially. It’s akin to polishing the brass on the Titanic as it sinks: in the short term, you’re making a small difference, but in the big picture, you’re ignoring the very real, enormous problem you need to tackle.

 
 
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Neither the Fed Nor the ECB Can Stop What's Coming





 

The two biggest market props of the last two years: the Fed and the ECB have found their hands tied. What will follow will make 2008 look like a joke. On that note, if you have not taken steps to prepare for the end of the EU (and its impact on the US and global banking system), you NEED TO DO SO NOW!

 
 
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The Rise of Nationalism Will End the Euro Before Year's End





 

When it came time to vote in round one, more French youth voted for a party whose leader wants to break up the Euro, who wants to deal with immigration by ending dual citizenship, affirmative action, and by kicking out any immigrant who cannot adhere to French principles or who commits a crime, and who once compared the legal French tolerance of Muslims praying in the streets to putting up with Nazi occupation.

 
 
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I Just Got Back From the EU... and It's Worse Than You Imagined





 

The situation in Europe is bad...  How BAD? Well, France, Spain, and Germany have ALL implemented border controls. That's not a typo. Spain, France, and Germany can each close their borders for up to 30 days at any point if they so choose. Why are they doing this? Because they know that when the stuff hits the fan and the EU collapses (which it will in the next few months) people are going to attempt to flee with their money... so they have made it so that no one can get it... and no one can get out. 

 
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Merkel's Now Backed Into a Corner... Will She Commit Political Suicide or Bail on the Euro?





Germany is interested in the EU as a political entity, NOT the Euro as a currency. With that in mind, as well as Merkel’s recent political struggle, the stage is set for a possible exit from the Euro on the part of Germany.

 
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If Spain's Problems Are Solved... Why Are They Putting Together "Plan B"?





The ESM funding idea is really just Spain playing for time (the ESM doesn’t actually have the funds to bail Spain out). But the fact that Germany is now making the ESM a political issue indicates the degree to which political relationships are breaking down in the EU. And once the political relationships break down... so will the Euro.

 
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Why Sovereign Defaults Matter... and Why Spain is a BIG Deal





THIS is the fate that awaits the European banking system. Every single EU bank has leveraged itself based on financial models that consider sovereign bonds to be “risk free.” Moreover, EVERY EU bank is leverage to the hilt based on its OWN in-­?house assessment of the riskiness of its loan portfolio.

 
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On the Ground in Paris... It Ain't Euro Positive





 

 

By the look of things, French youth are celebrating Hollande’s victory by picking up all of their friends and then driving up and down the streets honking their horns incessantly. Most cars were packed to the brim with passengers hanging out of every window and even the sunroof waving French flags, singing, or simply yelling pro-Hollande slogans.

 
 
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