Phoenix Capital Research's blog

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Taper, No Taper… the Bubble Must Go On!





All I can say with certainty is that stocks are in a dangerous position. They’ve been in one for a while now and the higher they go the more dangerous it becomes.

 
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The South American Gem Investors Are Ignoring





When most investors think about South America, they think about Brazil: the single largest South American economy.

 
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Waiting On the Santa Rally





So barring any huge negative developments, the markets should rally over the next few weeks based on historical and seasonal patterns.

 
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Signs of a Top and Few Opportunities for Value





There are multiple signs of a top forming. And even stock bulls are sitting on cash. What's next?

 
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Gold's Intrinsic Value Vs the US Dollar





Many investors argue that Gold has no intrinsic value. I disagree with this assessment as it does not consider the nature of the financial system.

 
 
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Graham Summers' Weekly Market Review





The markets are in a perilous condition today. We’ve been noting for months that the markets were displaying signs of a top.

 
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A Different Assessment of Risk





If you want to make a killing in the markets, you need to be willing to see the world the way it really is, NOT how you THINK it is. Most investors think the VIX measures the market’s risk, but really, it’s almost the opposite: a spike in the VIX almost always picks market bottoms!

 
 
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The Markets Have Entered a Blow Off Top





 

So, we have investor sentiment showing record bullishness, investors are piling into stocks at a pace not seen since 1999-2000: at the height of the Tech Bubble, earnings are generally falling, the global economy is contracting, and the Fed is already buying $85 billion worth of assets per month.

 
 
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Signs of a Top





This brings me back to an earlier point, that profits and earnings are likely peaking. All of these point to a top forming.

 
 
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Why Forecasts of a World Without Carbon-Based Fuel Are Delusional Pt 1





While the US continues to engage in a delusional energy “debate” about whether we will continue to burn coal and whether natural gas is a panacea, China is struggling to acquire and deploy of energy resources to support its economic growth targets.

 
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Debt Is Failing as a Driver of Economic Growth





 

In the 1960s every new $1 in debt bought nearly $1 in GDP growth. In the 70s it began to fall as the debt climbed. By the time we hit the ‘80s and ‘90s, each new $1 in debt bought only $0.30-$0.50 in GDP growth. And today, each new $1 in debt buys only $0.10 in GDP growth at best.

 

 
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There is No Such Thing as a Smooth Fed Exit





 

In May-July 2013, Bernanke, like the rest of the Fed saw in simple terms that there is no such thing as a smooth exit. The market rebelled at the mere hint of tapering at a time when the Fed is buying $85 billion per month. If the Fed were to actually go ahead and taper what would rates do?

 
 
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Gold Beat Stocks Except During the Tech Bubble





Once Gold was no longer pegged to world currencies there was only a single period in which stocks outperformed the precious metal. That period was from 1997-2000 during the height of the Tech Bubble (the single biggest stock market bubble in over 100 years).

 
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Germany Doesn't Trust the Fed... Why Should We?





 

Since the Financial Crisis erupted in 2007, the US Federal Reserve has engaged in dozens of interventions/ bailouts to try and prop up the financial system. Now, I realize that everyone knows the Fed is “printing money.” However, when you look at the list of bailouts/ money pumps it’s absolutely staggering how much money the Fed has thrown around.

 
 
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The China Inflation Problem and Its Impact For Markets





However, the reality of higher inflation won’t show up in China’s inflation data (which clocks in at an absurdly low 3%). However, you can see clear signs of this in China’s civil unrest: you don’t get wage and labor strikes for nothing. 

 
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