Phoenix Capital Research's blog

I do not believe that China or Russia are in any position to dump the US dollar, at least not in the near-term. The US Dollar may one day no longer be the reserve currency of the world. But that day is years and possibly decades out. But the notion that China or Russia could just dump the Dollar and move around the US in terms of trade is unbelievably naïve and greatly underestimates the importance of the US to the global economy.

The ECB has found its hands tied: if it continues to monetize aggressively, inflation will surge and Germany will either leave the Euro or at the very least make life very, very difficult for the ECB and those EU members asking for bailouts.

After all, doing this would score MAJOR political points for both Merkel and Weidmann who have both come under fire for revelations that the Bundesbank has in fact put Germany on the hook for over €2 trillion via various back-door deals.

On that note, I fully believe the EU in its current form is in its final chapters. Whether it’s through Spain imploding or Germany ultimately pulling out of the Euro, we’ve now reached the point of no return: the problems facing the EU (Spain and Italy) are too large to be bailed out. There simply aren’t any funds or entities large enough to handle these issues.

This spells MAJOR trouble for Spain and the rest of the EU. Unlike Greece, (which has its own elections, which could go very wrong for the EU, on May 6^th by the way), Spain is too big to bail out.  Indeed, the Spanish banking system is a toxic sewer of bad mortgage debt: over half of all mortgages were generated and owned by the unregulated cajas. If you're unfamiliar with the caja banking system, let me give you a little background...

With Spain today, we have a virtually unregulated banking system sitting atop HALF of ALL Spanish mortgages after a housing bubble that makes the one that happened in the US look like a small bump.

Germany’s campaign for austerity in the EU is about to lose its biggest ally. How exactly this will play out is unclear, but it will not be conducive to the Euro lasting in its current form much longer: aside from the fact that the EU banking system is on the verge of collapse and Spain (a country too large to bailout) has now stepped to the center stage of the EU crisis, Germany is finding itself increasingly alone in its moves to rein in the ECB’s monetary profligacy.

In simple terms, Spain is like Greece, only bigger and worse. According to the Bank of International Settlements worldwide exposure to Spain is north of $1 TRILLION with Great Britain on the hook for $51 billion, the US on the hook for $187 billion, France on the hook for $224 billion and Germany on the hook for a whopping $244 billion.

Case in point, if the Spanish auction went so well, why are Spanish Credit Default Swaps widening? Ditto for Spanish yields (the ten year is back closing in on 6%)? However, ultimately this auction means next to nothing. Spain is an absolute disaster on a level that few if any analysts can even grasp.

The bailout gravy train is slowing and possibly even stopping right at the time when Spain (a REAL problem) is going to start looking for a bailout. So what do you think happens when the ECB chooses to print more and Germany threatens to pull out the Euro… OR the ECB tells Spain it can’t provide any additional funds?

Remember, the real European collapse will occur when the political landscape changes in Europe: when supporting the bailout madness becomes unpalatable for EU leaders due to its political consequences in their home countries.

All of these factors, combined with the end of the strongest seasonal period for stocks (November-April) as well as the end of Operation Twist 2 (June) have the making of a truly horrific period for the markets. Indeed, the mere fact that verbal interventions from the Fed are no longer working should tell investors point blank that things are about to get VERY ugly in the markets.

This is the mother of all bombshells in Europe and no one is talking about it. Germany basically announced that it will allow German banks to DUMP euro-zone government bonds off their balance sheets. It also announced it will provide up to 400 billion euros in backstops and 80 billion euros for bank recapitalization.

What makes this time different? Several items:

1. The Crisis coming from Europe will be far, far larger in scope than anything the Fed has dealt with before.
2. The Fed is now politically toxic and cannot engage in aggressive monetary policy without experiencing severe political backlash (this is an election year).
3. The Fed’s resources are spent to the point that the only thing the Fed could do would be to announce an ENORMOUS monetary program which would cause a Crisis in of itself.

I continue to see articles in the media claiming that Europe’s problems are solved. Either the folks writing these articles can’t do simple math, or they don’t bother actually reading any of the political news coming out of Europe.

In simple terms, the Fed’s hands are tied and the ECB is out of ammo. The End Game for Central Bank intervention is approaching. And it won’t be pretty…  First Europe. Then Japan. Then the US. So if you’re not already taking steps to prepare for the coming collapse, you need to do so now.