Pivotfarm's blog

S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Russell 2000, Nymex Crude Oil, Comex Gold, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY

S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Russell 2000, Nymex Crude Oil, Comex Gold, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY

Data sheets and journals for S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Russell 2000, Nymex Crude Oil, Comex Gold, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY

A look at this weeks COT release for the futures and FX Retail Trader Positioning

AUDUSD and EURUSD are building a firm position in the strong long zone GBP pairs with the exception of EURGBP are in neutral territory. Today we have Construction PMI at 4:30 am EST, if this event results in a strong deviation from consensus its likely that we could see some changes in retail positioning

A review of the Commitment of Traders and Retail Trader Positioning Analysis.

USDJPY continues to march higher as a result of intervention, we are seeing retail long positions decrease for the first time in many months. USDCAD continues int its down trend whilst retail long positions at pretty much at the strongest we have seen them. AUD and EUR continue their march higher even though 60%+ traders are short.

USDJPY has been in the strong short zone with over 70% of traders long for many, many months, close to a year now. In that time we have seen sustained and continued declines, today is the first time we have seen long positions dip below 70% in almost 12 months.

Retail positioning is staying pretty constant the last few days, GBPUSD has been seeing a strong shift in sentiment however, with increasing numbers of retail traders becoming long the pair throughout the sell off. Although still in the neutral if this retail buying continues we may take a dip into the short zone. GBP Current Account data released at 4:30am EST may tip the balance.

AUDUSD is firing on all cylinders in the long zone whilst 65.81% traders are short and actually made it to the strong short zone in Fridays session before pulling back a little into the long zone. Both EURUSD and GBPUSD are now well within the neutral zone. Pending Home Sales coming out of the US at 10:00am EST is the big new event of the day and if we do have a strong deviation from consensus we expect it to have a strong influence on retail positioning.

This weeks review of COT and Retail trader positioning analysis.

EURGBP has exploded into the strong long zone with almost 70% of retail traders short after UK Retail Sales data yesterday. AUDUSD is back in the long zone and EURUSD is holding its ground in the long zone. USDCAD after a brief dip in the short zone is now back in the strong short zone. The German Ifo Business Climate is the main retail position moving event of the day.

GBPUSD has made a strong move back into the neutral zone after some strong selling yesterday. EURUSD made a similar move but remains in the long zone even though it has dropped back considerably. We have a slew of PMI data coming out of the EuroZone from 4am EST onwards. Retail Sales out of the UK are likely to have a strong impact on retail positioning, Core Durable Goods Orders at 8:30 am EST is the big number out of the US.

Current positioning is remaining firm, we're seeing the expected pullback in EURUSD, but the pair remains in the strong long zone overall. With the release of the Annual Budget in the UK at 8:30 am EST we expect some volatility with GBP crosses, this could have an impact on retail positioning. New Home Sales out of the US at 10:00 EST is a likely catalyst today if we get a major deviation from expectations.

EURUSD and GBPUSD continue to make parabolic up moves whilst retail traders increase short positions. We would advise caution in the short term as strong moves like this do not tend to last, so we may see a pullback in the short term. We remain very much in the strong short zone as have for a long while with the USDCHF and USDJPY. The swissy has sustained good momentum behind an overall down trend especially last week with 5 straight down days.