Pivotfarm's blog

A slew of potentially market moving and thus retail position moving events today, EUR CPI is released at 05:00 EST, CAD GDP at 08:30 EST (big mover), 09:45 and 10:00 are the USD Chicago PMI and Pending Home Sales respectively, at 19:30 AUD Retail Sales is likely to cause a splash. EURCHF firms its position in the short zone, at the same time GBPUSD and EURUSD slip a little in strength, but GBPUSD still remains in the long zone.

The big news event of the day is the US GDP 10:00 EST expected to come in at 3.3% a deviation of 0.1% or more could lead to some significant changes in trader positioning, we also have UK Revised GDP coming out at 04:30 EST which is also often a big mover. In yesterdays session we saw overall GBP weakness. As a result GBPUSD has slipped from the strong long zone back into the long zone

Increasing market volatility is leading to more decisive trading action by traders, with the number of pairs now in the neutral zone at a 3 month low. There are a couple of market moving events today that could have a strong influence on the report heading into the weekend. At 08:30 EST we have US Durable Goods Sales followed by New Home Sales at 10:00, both events have the potential to cause shifts in retail trader positioning.

EURCHF reverted back into the short zone in yesterdays session, today we have CHF PPI at 03:15 EST which is likely to have an effect on this positioning. After some strong selling in the early part of yesterdays session a recovery ensued in EURUSD, the pair is now in the long zone.

GBPUSD has become firmly entrenched in the Strong Long zone, at the time of writing this we're seeing GBPUSD pull back from the highs, the bias for this pair does however remain to the long side overall. We have some market moving events including UK Public Sector Net Borrowing at 04:30 EST and US Consumer Confidence at 10:00 that could potentially add some spark.

Not much in terms of changes in retail trader positioning from yesterday. Some potentially market moving events today with Retail Sales out of the UK and speeches from Fed chair Ben Bernanke and BOE Gov at 8:00 EST and 8:20 EST respectively.

UK Inflation data led to market expectations of a potential rate hike, however this opinion quickly lost steam as Governor King spoke yesterday. Economic weakness indicated by a rising jobless rate, as well as other factors vs Inflation risks is leading to a continued stalemate in interest rate expectations. These event led to a sharp turn around in GBP positioning with most GBP pairs in the neutral zone now.

Increasing Inflation levels in the UK have led to strength in the GBP with analysts increasing the probability of an interest rate rise later in the year. Retail positioning however is quite contrary to this with increased short positions against the EUR, JPY and USD.

Today we have a plethora of major news events that could effect retail positioning dramatically. With German GDP, UK CPI, German ZEW, USD Retail Sales and US TIC coming out today all within a 8 hour window, any major deviations could have powerful implications. Going into the news events the report is fairly settled with most pairs in the neutral zone. GBPUSD has slipped a tiny bit back in the Long zone, with GBPJPY back in the neutral zone.

USDCAD has been in the strong short zone for a while, Fridays action saw a strong drop in the pair and has led to an equally dramatic change in retail positioning, retail traders are now 79.53% long USDCAD the highest level of retail positioning we have seen in a many month. GBPUSD has moved back into the Strong Long zone.

Retail traders are notoriously wrong at picking market direction/tops and bottoms. Most retail traders very naturally seem to adopt a counter-trend stance and this very accurate signals for individuals looking to trade against this group. This daily report is designed to help traders focus their efforts on higher probability pairs.

Retail traders are notoriously wrong at picking market direction/tops and bottoms. Most retail traders very naturally seem to adopt a counter-trend stance and this very accurate signals for individuals looking to trade against this group. This daily report is designed to help traders focus their efforts on higher probability pairs.

Retail traders are notoriously wrong at picking market direction/tops and bottoms. Most retail traders very naturally seem to adopt a counter-trend stance and this very accurate signals for individuals looking to trade against this group. This daily report is designed to help traders focus their efforts on higher probability pairs.

Retail traders are notoriously wrong at picking market direction/tops and bottoms. Most retail traders very naturally seem to adopt a counter-trend stance and this offers very accurate signals for individuals looking to trade against this group. This daily report is designed to help traders focus their efforts on higher probability pairs.

Retail traders are notoriously wrong at picking market direction/tops and bottoms. Most retail traders very naturally seem to adopt a counter-trend stance and this offers very accurate signals for individuals looking to trade against this group. This daily report is designed to help traders focus their efforts on higher probability pairs.