We at the Fed are the platonic guardians of the global financial system. And our logic is undeniable….
If a third of all US homes cannot trade due to being underwater or not sufficiently above water to clear closing costs, then the US economy is going to suffer
Selling hope, after all, is the stock and trade of the Sell Side. But we all need to take a step back and ask ourselves just where we stand on the proverbial economic timeline...
Bottom line for financials is that 2014 is looking to be a tough year, even if the Sell Side wants to believe that growing earnings is still possible on flat revenue
Because infinite permutations of risk factor movements can cause a specific asset price movement, no definitive anchor points will arise to bootstrap that mandated P&L attribution
“The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.”
Just as in the 1930s the Fed fueled deflation by not making credit available, today the opposite seems to be the case – low rates are fueling deflation and preventing markets from clearing.
There is no free lunch. Either we kill growth via financial repression of savers or we embrace the painful process of debt restructuring for the major industrial nations.
Q3 earnings for financials show that the interest rate risk created by the Fed after years of zero rates is very real indeed
Are we all wealthier because the Dow is at ~ 15,000? Should Katee Sackhoff be the next Fed Chairman?
So are you going to be among the few, the proud, the surprised Sell Side analysts?
When we actually start the Q3 earnings cycle for financials, watch for the word “surprise” in a lot of news reports and analyst opinions
Investors need to stop listening to the happy talk coming from the economists, and start focusing on what banks and other lenders are saying and doing operationally to adjust for the mortgage market of 2014 and beyond.
A dozen years have passed. Memory doesn't fade. In some ways, the events remain as vivid today as they were that September morning.
Ian Buruma: “The truth can be brutal, and makes life uncomfortable. So one looks the other way.”