rcwhalen's blog

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Is the Housing Sector a Drag on the US Economy?





If a third of all US homes cannot trade due to being underwater or not sufficiently above water to clear closing costs, then the US economy is going to suffer

 
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Ode to Warren Harding: Q4 2013 Earnings & the End of Normalcy





Selling hope, after all, is the stock and trade of the Sell Side.  But we all need to take a step back and ask ourselves just where we stand on the proverbial economic timeline... 

 
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Are Large Cap Banks Ready to "Break Out?"





Bottom line for financials is that 2014 is looking to be a tough year, even if the Sell Side wants to believe that growing earnings is still possible on flat revenue

 
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Nom de Plumber | Volcker Rule Implementation: Mission Impossible?





Because infinite permutations of risk factor movements can cause a specific asset price movement, no definitive anchor points will arise to bootstrap that mandated P&L attribution

 
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Default, Deflation and Financial Repression





There is no free lunch.  Either we kill growth via financial repression of savers or we embrace the painful process of debt restructuring for the major industrial nations.

 
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Debt Deflation and the Illusion of Wealth





Are we all wealthier because the Dow is at ~ 15,000?  Should Katee Sackhoff be the next Fed Chairman?

 
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Shall We All be Surprised by JPMorgan, Wells Fargo Earnings?





So are you going to be among the few, the proud, the surprised Sell Side analysts?

 
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Q3 2013 Earnings\Financials: The Party is Over





When we actually start the Q3 earnings cycle for financials, watch for the word “surprise” in a lot of news reports and analyst opinions

 
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Mortgage Market Slump: Is it Interest Rates or Jobs and Consumer Income?





Investors need to stop listening to the happy talk coming from the economists, and start focusing on what banks and other lenders are saying and doing operationally to adjust for the mortgage market of 2014 and beyond.  

 
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