Reggie Middleton's blog

No matter where the stock market rises to, no matter what accounting shenanigans are being pulled, and no matter what program traders or momentos are pushing for the moment, sooner or later (usually sooner than many realize) the fundamentals come home to roost. Enter Wells Fargo...

The REIT space has seen share prices pop significantly in this extended bear market rally. This, along with a few financial shenanigans, seems to have masked the effect that a literal real estate depression has had on those entities which buy, sell, develop and hold real estate. The fundamentals and macro outlook are still horrendous, yet share prices have been elevated significantly. Ackman, from Pershing Square, has released his short thesis on the REIT Realty Income, and I throw my 22 cents in (it was 2 cents, but I levered up 10x), as well as offer another REIT with a greater cash flow problem...

This the skinny on PNC Bank. The "Off the Books" version, you know the stuff you will never get from the sell side or the popular media.

In reviewing the last couple of quarter's results of Goldman Sachs operating results, I have come to the conclusion that Goldman is a Federally insured, publicly traded hedge fund!

Let me know the chances of the FDIC's absorbing a behemoth such as the CDO trading, CDS writing, off balance sheet VIE having, QSPE bulging, California and Florida Zero recovery 2nd lien sporting Wells Fargo in the case some of its arcane and non-performing assets really hit the fan. I am getting ahead of myself though. Let's take this from the beginning.

I said it in 2007. I said it in 2008, and I'll say it again, the banking system is INSOLVENT!!!

I have found evidence that this bank has $32 billion of naked (as in apparently unhedged) swaps on its books - just like AIG. The difference is this bank is bigger, probably has more exposure, and has already been bailed out - several times. Oh, did I mention the insured collateral is nearly half BBB rated or lower??? How about extreme management issues at the top, and I mean all the way to the top. A trunk full of junk, surrounded by drama! It should be an interesting conference call tomorrow when they report, that is if anybody decides to ask the right questions...

Here I show a direct comparison of my "on the street, grass roots" and "spreadsheet" observations to that of what is portrayed in the media. Let me know if you see any discrepancies...

One of the quandaries of running a subscription service is that
when you have some really juicy stuff, you inherently limit the
audience that you are able to reach. Normally, this isn't that big a
deal. When you believe that there is a mass cover up aiming to prop up
the largest cadre of zombie, insolvent companies in modern history it
becomes a much bigger deal. This leads me to distribute a significant
amount of research for free.